Core Viewpoint - Ontrak, Inc. (OTRK) has received an upgrade to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating a positive outlook on its earnings estimates, which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Price Movement - The Zacks rating system is based on changes in earnings estimates, which are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements [4][6]. - Institutional investors utilize earnings estimates to determine the fair value of stocks, leading to buying or selling actions that affect stock prices [4]. Recent Performance and Outlook - Ontrak is projected to earn -$3.80 per share for the fiscal year ending December 2025, showing no year-over-year change [8]. - Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ontrak has increased by 6.2%, reflecting a positive trend in earnings estimates [8]. Zacks Rating System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with only the top 20% receiving a "Strong Buy" or "Buy" rating [9][10]. - The upgrade of Ontrak to a Zacks Rank 2 places it in the top 20% of Zacks-covered stocks, suggesting potential for market-beating returns in the near term [10].

Core Viewpoint - Ontrak, Inc. (OTRK) has experienced a downtrend, losing 12.4% over the past week, but a hammer chart pattern suggests a potential trend reversal as buying interest may be emerging [1][2]. Technical Analysis - The hammer chart pattern indicates a possible bottoming out, with selling pressure likely subsiding, which could lead to a bullish trend [2][5]. - A hammer pattern forms when there is a small candle body with a long lower wick, signaling that bears may be losing control over the price [4][5]. - The occurrence of a hammer pattern at the bottom of a downtrend suggests that bulls have successfully halted further price declines, indicating a potential reversal [5]. Fundamental Analysis - There has been a positive trend in earnings estimate revisions for OTRK, which is a bullish indicator, as it typically correlates with price appreciation [7]. - The consensus EPS estimate for the current year has increased by 6.2% over the last 30 days, reflecting analysts' agreement on the company's improved earnings potential [8]. - OTRK holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks, which historically outperforms the market [9][10].

Revenue Performance - Revenue for Q1 2025 was $2.0 million, a decrease of 25% from $2.7 million in Q1 2024, primarily due to a decrease in total average enrolled members[157]. - Total revenue decreased by $0.7 million, or 25%, to $2.017 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $2.680 million in the same period of 2024[169]. Operating Expenses and Losses - Total operating expenses for Q1 2025 were $6.6 million, up from $6.0 million in Q1 2024, with increases in research and development and general administrative expenses[168]. - Total operating expenses increased by $0.6 million, or 10%, to $6.596 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $5.978 million in 2024[172]. - Operating loss for Q1 2025 was $(5.9) million, compared to $(4.3) million in Q1 2024, indicating a worsening financial performance[168]. - Operating loss increased by $1.577 million, or 37%, to $5.850 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025[172]. Net Loss and Financial Challenges - Net loss for Q1 2025 was $(6.9) million, compared to $(4.5) million in Q1 2024, reflecting increased operational challenges[168]. - Interest expense, net increased by $858,000, or 469%, to $(183,000) for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $(1.041 million) in 2024[174]. - The company is not in compliance with the consolidated liquidity or consolidated recurring revenue covenants as of March 31, 2025[178]. Cash Flow and Liquidity - Cash flow from operations improved to $(2.7) million in Q1 2025 from $(3.3) million in Q1 2024, attributed to increased collections on accounts receivable and efficient cash flow management[158]. - Net cash used in operating activities was $2.723 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, an improvement from $3.259 million in 2024[181]. - Total cash as of March 31, 2025, was $4.1 million, with negative working capital of approximately $3.1 million[175]. Member Enrollment and Programs - Callable outreach pool for WholeHealth+ increased by 45% to 7,319 members as of March 31, 2025, compared to 5,057 members in the same period last year[159]. - Callable outreach pool for Ontrak Engage program reached 22,152 members as of March 31, 2025, reflecting the program's launch on an à la carte basis in early 2024[160]. - A health plan customer notified the company of its intent to discontinue services after December 2024, leading to disenrollment of related members[152]. - The company aims to increase eligible members by signing new contracts and identifying more eligible members within existing contracts[161]. Debt and Financing - The company entered into an agreement with Acuitas to purchase up to $5.0 million in principal amount of Demand Notes and senior secured non-convertible promissory notes[153]. - The company had $13.5 million of secured debt outstanding as of March 31, 2025, with additional borrowing of $0.5 million under the Keep Well Agreement on May 9, 2025[176]. Cost of Revenue and Gross Profit - Cost of revenue increased by $0.3 million, or 30%, to $1.271 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $0.975 million in 2024[170]. - Gross profit decreased by $1.0 million to $746,000, with a gross profit margin decline of 27% to 37% for the three months ended March 31, 2025[171].

Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was $2.0 million, a 25% decrease year over year from $2.68 million in Q1 2024[6] - Q1 2025 operating loss increased to $(5.9) million, a 37% increase compared to $(4.3) million in Q1 2024[6] - Q1 2025 adjusted EBITDA was $(4.3) million, reflecting a 28% decline from $(3.4) million in Q1 2024[6] - Net loss for Q1 2025 was $(6.9) million, or $(1.65) diluted net loss per common share, consistent with the same loss per share in Q1 2024[7] - Non-GAAP net loss for Q1 2025 was $(5.5) million, or $(1.40) non-GAAP diluted net loss per common share, compared to $(3.8) million or $(1.49) in Q1 2024[7] - For the three months ended March 31, 2025, Ontrak, Inc. reported a net loss of $6,891,000, compared to a net loss of $4,458,000 for the same period in 2024, representing a 55% increase in net loss year-over-year[29] - Adjusted EBITDA for the three months ended March 31, 2025, was $(4,311,000), compared to $(3,372,000) for the same period in 2024, indicating a deterioration of approximately 28%[31] - Non-GAAP net loss attributable to common stockholders for the three months ended March 31, 2025, was $(7,709,000), compared to $(6,053,000) for the same period in 2024, representing an increase of about 27%[32] Membership and Outreach - Total enrolled members in the WholeHealth+ program reached 1,578 at the end of Q1 2025, up from 1,521 at the end of Q1 2024[12] - The callable outreach pool for WholeHealth+ increased to 7,319 as of March 31, 2025, compared to 5,057 at the end of Q1 2024[12] Cash and Assets - Cash at the end of the period was $4,087,000, down from $6,400,000 at the end of the same period in 2024, a decrease of about 36%[29] - The total current assets decreased to $7,909,000 as of March 31, 2025, down from $9,560,000 as of December 31, 2024, reflecting a decline of approximately 17%[27] - The company had total stockholders' equity of $4,647,000 as of March 31, 2025, down from $9,870,000 as of December 31, 2024, a decline of approximately 53%[27] Liabilities and Financing - Total liabilities increased to $13,624,000 as of March 31, 2025, compared to $11,205,000 as of December 31, 2024, marking an increase of about 22%[27] - The company secured a $10.0 million financing commitment from Acuitas Capital LLC[6] Operational Efficiency - Ontrak, Inc. reported a net cash used in operating activities of $(2,723,000) for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $(3,259,000) for the same period in 2024, indicating an improvement of about 16%[29] - The company reported stock-based compensation expense of $1,421,000 for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $352,000 for the same period in 2024, reflecting a significant increase of 304%[29] - The weighted-average common shares outstanding increased to 5,517,000 for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to 4,059,000 for the same period in 2024, an increase of approximately 36%[32] Quality Assurance - Ontrak has been re-certified by NCQA as a Credentials Verification Organization, reaffirming its commitment to quality standards[12]