Group 1 - Michael Wiggins De Oliveira is an inflection investor, focusing on buying undervalued companies at pivotal moments when their profitability is expected to increase significantly over the next year [1] - The investment strategy emphasizes technology and the Great Energy Transition, including uranium, with a concentrated portfolio of approximately 15 to 20 stocks and an average holding period of 18 months [1] Group 2 - Michael has over 10 years of experience analyzing companies in the tech and energy sectors, and has built a following of over 40,000 on Seeking Alpha [2] - He leads the investing group Deep Value Returns, which offers insights through a concentrated portfolio of value stocks, timely updates, weekly webinars for live advice, and support for both new and experienced investors [2] - The Deep Value Returns community is described as active, vibrant, and supportive, with easy access via chat [2]

Stock Performance - Rubrik's shares have rallied 90% since its IPO on April 25, outperforming the Zacks Computer & Technology sector (27.8%) and the Zacks Internet - Software industry (31.1%) [1] - Rubrik's shares have outperformed industry peers like Fortinet, which gained 52.2% over the same period [1] Growth Drivers - Strong demand for Rubrik's cyber recovery and resilience solutions, a rapidly growing customer base, and an expanding network of strategic partnerships have driven the momentum in its shares [2] - Rubrik's innovative platform, including its Security Cloud and Data Security Posture Management (DSPM), is expected to boost its clientele [3][4][5] - The company secured a significant win with Simpler, a healthcare tech company serving 5,000 U.S. hospitals, by offering stronger cyber resilience and security [6] Platform and Technology - Rubrik's Security Cloud is a unified platform that automates data management and security across enterprise, cloud, and SaaS environments, delivering robust, end-to-end protection [3][4] - The platform uses AI to help organizations detect and respond to cyber threats, offering unique cyber recovery with AI-powered zero-trust architecture for fast data and system restoration [3] - Rubrik's DSPM provides continuous visibility into data access across on-premises and cloud environments, combining fast cyber recovery with DSPM for a complete cyber resilience solution [5] Strategic Partnerships - Rubrik's rich-partner base, including Pure Storage and Okta, is a key catalyst for maintaining momentum [7] - The collaboration with Pure Storage integrates Rubrik Security Cloud with Pure Storage's platform, offering a modern architecture for data storage and protection [7] - In 2024, Rubrik announced an integration with Okta's Identity Threat Protection to enhance protection against identity-based attacks [8] - Rubrik was named to CRN's 2025 Cloud 100 List, recognizing its leadership in cloud innovation and data security [8] Financial Outlook - For 2025, Rubrik anticipates revenues of $860-$862 million, implying 37% year-over-year growth, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate pegged at $861.20 million [9] - The company expects its non-GAAP loss for 2025 to range from $1.86 to $1.82 per share, with the consensus mark at $1.83 per share [9] - Rubrik's earnings have beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all the trailing three quarters, with an average surprise of 26.51% [10][11] Competitive Position - Rubrik's expanding clientele, driven by strong cyber recovery and resilience solutions, and a rich partner base, improves its competitive position in the cybersecurity market [12]

Core Insights - SentinelOne reported a fiscal third quarter 2025 EPS of breakeven, missing consensus estimates by a penny, while revenues grew 28.3% year-over-year to $210.6 million, surpassing consensus estimates of $209.73 million [15] - The company experienced a 29% year-over-year increase in annualized recurring revenue (ARR) to $859.7 million, and GAAP gross margin expanded by 140 basis points to 74.7% [15] - Despite positive free cash flow for the first time on a trailing twelve-month basis, the stock saw a sell-off of 13.2% following the earnings report, closing at $24.89 [16][17] SentinelOne Financial Performance - SentinelOne's revenue guidance for fiscal full-year 2025 is expected to be around $818 million, exceeding consensus estimates of $815.65 million [17] - The company ended the quarter with $1.1 billion in cash and investments, indicating a strong liquidity position [3] - Operating losses grew 9.4% year-over-year to $89.1 million, and R&D expenses increased by 34.7% year-over-year to $70.4 million [15] Market Reaction and Analyst Ratings - Analysts have given SentinelOne a "Moderate Buy" rating, with a 12-month stock price forecast averaging $29.44, indicating a potential upside of 31.25% [4][16] - The stock was not included in the list of top recommendations by analysts, suggesting a cautious outlook among some market participants [22] Competitive Landscape - SentinelOne was expected to benefit from the CrowdStrike incident in July 2024, which caused significant disruptions, but this did not materialize in Q3 as anticipated [14] - The cybersecurity industry remains competitive, with various firms targeting different aspects of online protection, highlighting the need for continuous innovation and customer acquisition [12]

Core Viewpoint - Rubrik (RBRK) is experiencing significant growth driven by strong subscription ARR, strategic partnerships, and innovative cyber resilience solutions, despite facing intense competition in the data protection market [4][15]. Financial Performance - For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, Rubrik expects revenues between $231.5 million and $233.5 million, with non-GAAP earnings projected to range from a loss of 41 cents to 37 cents per share [3][17]. - For the full year 2025, Rubrik anticipates revenues of $860-$862 million, indicating a year-over-year growth of 37% [7]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 revenues is pegged at $232.88 million, with a consensus mark for loss narrowing to 39 cents per share [17]. Customer Growth - The number of customers with a Subscription ARR of $100,000 or more grew by 32% year-over-year, reaching 2,085 customers, indicating successful attraction of larger clients [5]. Strategic Partnerships - Rubrik has formed partnerships with Mandiant, Pure Storage, CrowdStrike, and Kyndryl to enhance data security and provide comprehensive cyber resilience solutions [6][10][12]. - The collaboration with Mandiant aims to integrate threat intelligence into Rubrik Security Cloud, expediting threat detection and cyber recovery [6]. Market Performance - Rubrik shares have surged 100.7% in the past three months, significantly outperforming the Zacks Computer & Technology sector's return of 6.3% [14]. - The company's stock performance is attributed to expanding partnerships that enhance data security capabilities [15]. Innovation and Product Development - Rubrik introduced Data Security Posture Management (DSPM) for Microsoft 365 Copilot, enhancing visibility and control over sensitive data [2]. - The integration with Okta's Identity Threat Protection positions Rubrik as a leader in data security by enabling better identification of user risks [16].

Subscription and Revenue Growth - Subscription ARR as of October 31, 2024, reached $1,002,252, representing a 38% growth compared to $724,811 in 2023[174] - Cloud ARR as of October 31, 2024, was $768,838, showing a 69% growth from $454,866 in 2023[176] - The average subscription dollar-based net retention rate was over 120% as of October 2024, down from over 130% in 2023[180] - The number of customers with $100,000 or more in Subscription ARR increased to 2,085, a 32% growth from 1,581 in 2023[182] - Subscription revenue for the three months ended October 31, 2024, was $221,511 thousand, a 55% increase from $143,363 thousand for the same period in 2023[224] - Total revenue for the nine months ended October 31, 2024, reached $628,444 thousand, up 39% from $452,879 thousand in the prior year[225] - Subscription ARR increased from $724.8 million as of October 31, 2023, to $1,002.3 million as of October 31, 2024, representing a 38% growth[228] - The company had 2,085 customers with $100,000 or more in Subscription ARR as of October 31, 2024, up from 1,581 customers a year earlier[228] - Maintenance revenue represented 2% of total revenue for the three months ended October 31, 2024, down from 5% in the same period of 2023[229] Financial Performance and Cash Flow - Free cash flow for the nine months ended October 31, 2024 was $(53.6) million, compared to $(33.2) million for the same period in 2023, reflecting a modest improvement adjusted for employer payroll taxes[186] - Net cash used in operating activities was $(35.4) million for the nine months ended October 31, 2024, compared to $(17.3) million in 2023, highlighting increased operational expenses[189] - Net cash provided by financing activities was $396.1 million for the nine months ended October 31, 2024, compared to $96.4 million in 2023, indicating a strong financing position[189] - The company reported net cash used in investing activities of $387.6 million for the nine months ended October 31, 2024, primarily due to $641.3 million in purchases of investments[263] - The company generated net cash provided by financing activities of $396.1 million for the nine months ended October 31, 2024, mainly from $815.2 million in proceeds from its IPO[265] - As of October 31, 2024, the company had cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments totaling $632.0 million[255] - The company expects to continue incurring operating losses, with an accumulated deficit of $(2,722.4) million as of October 31, 2024[255] Expenses and Cost Management - Total operating expenses for the three months ended October 31, 2024, were $304,819 thousand, compared to $197,175 thousand in the same period of 2023[224] - Research and development expenses are expected to increase as the company continues to innovate its platform and product functionality[215] - Sales and marketing expenses are projected to rise as the company expands its sales force and marketing efforts in new markets[217] - General and administrative expenses are expected to increase due to the costs associated with operating as a public company, although they are anticipated to decrease as a percentage of revenue over the long term[218] - Research and development expenses for the three months ended October 31, 2024, increased to $80,050,000, a 56% increase from $51,372,000 in the same period of 2023[238] - Sales and marketing expenses for the three months ended October 31, 2024, were $158,907,000, a 31% increase from $120,847,000 in the same period of 2023[240] - General and administrative expenses for the three months ended October 31, 2024, increased to $65,862,000, a 164% increase from $24,956,000 in the same period of 2023[241] Strategic Initiatives and Market Position - Rubrik transitioned customers from legacy CDM capabilities to RSC, which now represents a majority of total revenue as of the end of fiscal 2024[160] - RSC is primarily adopted as a cloud-native, fully managed SaaS solution, with a specialized version for U.S. public sector organizations called RSC-Government[159] - The company utilizes a land and expand strategy, focusing on acquiring new customers and expanding within existing ones[165] - The transition to subscription pricing models has been a significant part of the company's business evolution since fiscal 2020[158] - The company expects contributions to growth from transitioning existing maintenance customers to subscription editions to subside in fiscal 2026[174] - The company expects the transition of existing maintenance customers to subscription offerings to be largely completed by the end of fiscal 2026[229] - The company anticipates that maintenance revenue will decrease as adoption of RSC increases, affecting overall revenue composition[202] Legal and Compliance Matters - The company is involved in various legal proceedings but does not believe any current litigation will have a material adverse effect on its business[284] - The Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer evaluated the effectiveness of the company's disclosure controls and procedures, concluding they were effective at the reasonable assurance level[280] - There were no changes in internal control over financial reporting that materially affected the company's reporting during the period covered[281] - The management believes that the company's controls provide reasonable assurance but acknowledges inherent limitations in detecting all errors and fraud[282] Currency and Tax Considerations - The company’s effective tax rate may fluctuate significantly based on earnings in different countries, which could impact overall financial performance[247] - The reporting currency for the company is the U.S. dollar, while foreign subsidiaries operate in their respective local currencies, exposing the company to foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations[278] - The company has not entered into any hedging arrangements for foreign currency risk, but may consider doing so in the future[278] - A 10% increase or decrease in the relative value of the U.S. dollar is not expected to have a material impact on the company's results of operations[278]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Rubrik surpassed $1 billion in subscription ARR, growing 38% year-over-year [7][43] - Subscription revenue was over $221 million, growing 55% year-over-year [9][46] - Free cash flow was reported at over $15 million for the quarter [10][54] - Subscription ARR contribution margin improved by 1,100 basis points year-over-year, reaching negative 3% [10][52] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net new subscription ARR added was $83 million, indicating strong performance in the cyber resilience market [9][43] - Customers with $100,000 or more in subscription ARR reached 2,085, growing 32% year-over-year [10][46] - Cloud ARR reached $769 million, growing 69% [43] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from the Americas grew 46% to $169 million, while revenue from outside the Americas grew 35% to $67 million [47] - Subscription net retention rate remained above 120% [45] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Rubrik focuses on cyber resilience as a key market driver, emphasizing the need for comprehensive solutions across various data environments [11][14] - The company is expanding its product offerings, including the recent addition of Postgres SQL and Red Hat OpenShift virtualization [20] - Rubrik aims to leverage partnerships to enhance its go-to-market strategy, integrating with various technology partners [34][138] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strength of the cyber resilience market and the demand for Rubrik's offerings [55] - The company raised its guidance for the full fiscal year 2025, expecting subscription ARR growth of approximately 35% [58] - Management noted that the transition from maintenance to subscription ARR is moderating, with no expected benefit in fiscal 2026 [60] Other Important Information - Rubrik announced the Rubrik Annapurna API service, aimed at accelerating the development of trusted generative AI applications [31][122] - The company is focused on innovation and long-term growth, with a commitment to building a secure data infrastructure for AI applications [32][124] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on cloud backup and third-party data protection tools - Management highlighted the need for a unified policy engine for cyber recovery across diverse data environments, which is why customers prefer Rubrik over native cloud solutions [72][73] Question: Contribution margin improvement and investment pace - Management confirmed that the subscription ARR contribution margin is expected to reach breakeven next fiscal year, with continued focus on efficiency and growth [76][78] Question: DSPM deals and their impact on sales cycles - Management noted that DSPM deals have doubled in volume, providing data risk visibility and enhancing cyber resilience, although they currently represent a smaller part of the business [84][86] Question: Total Addressable Market (TAM) in cybersecurity - Management explained that Rubrik's transformation of the backup and recovery market into a cyber resilience platform has expanded the TAM significantly [99][101] Question: Operating efficiency sustainability - Management expressed optimism about sustaining operating efficiency improvements, driven by higher productivity and a focus on renewals [103][104] Question: Adoption rate of enterprise edition - Management reported that about half of new customers are adopting the enterprise edition, contributing significantly to net retention rate [115] Question: Vision and evolution of Rubrik Annapurna - Management described Annapurna as a long-term strategy to build a centralized data platform for secure AI applications, with plans for market experimentation [122][125] Question: Go-to-market partnerships - Management confirmed increased engagement with VARs and GSIs, enhancing Rubrik's go-to-market strategy [136][140]

Financial Performance & Growth - Rubrik's Subscription ARR reached $1,002 million, demonstrating 38% year-over-year growth[10] - The company boasts a high Average Subscription Dollar-Based Net Retention Rate (NRR) of over 120%[10] - Rubrik has 2,085 customers with over $100,000 in Subscription ARR[10] - The company anticipates Subscription ARR between $1,057 million and $1,061 million for fiscal year 2025[81] - Rubrik projects total revenue between $860 million and $862 million for fiscal year 2025[81] Market & Product Strategy - Rubrik is focused on cyber resilience, combining backup & recovery with cybersecurity[20] - The company's Rubrik Security Cloud offers data risk, data threat, and cyber recovery solutions[22] - Rubrik estimates a $53 billion projected market opportunity by 2027[10] Financial Metrics - Rubrik's Non-GAAP Gross Margin is 79%[41] - The company is approaching free cash flow breakeven[71] - Rubrik's Non-GAAP Subscription ARR Contribution Margin is improving[76]

Subscription ARR and Revenue Growth - Subscription ARR grew 38% year-over-year to $1,002.3 million[1] - Revenue increased 43% year-over-year to $236.2 million[1] - 2,085 customers with $100K or more in Subscription ARR, up 32% year-over-year[1] - Subscription revenue was $221.5 million, a 55% increase compared to $143.4 million in the same quarter last year[4] - Total revenue for the three months ended October 31, 2023, was $236.178 million, a significant increase from $165.604 million in the same period last year[31] - Subscription revenue for the three months ended October 31, 2023, reached $221.511 million, up from $143.363 million in the previous year[31] - Full Year 2025 Outlook: Subscription ARR between $1,057 million and $1,061 million[14] - Full Year 2025 Outlook: Revenue of $860 million to $862 million[14] Gross Margin and Profitability - GAAP gross margin was 76.2%, compared to 79.6% in the third quarter of fiscal 2024[5] - Subscription ARR Contribution Margin improved to (3)% from (14)% in the same quarter last year[6] - GAAP total gross profit for Q3 2024 was $180.032 million, compared to $131.896 million in Q3 2023, with a GAAP gross margin of 76% vs 80% in the prior year[34] - Non-GAAP total gross profit for Q3 2024 was $187.029 million, compared to $132.712 million in Q3 2023, with a non-GAAP gross margin of 79% vs 80% in the prior year[34] Net Loss and Earnings - GAAP net loss per share was $(0.71), compared to $(1.41) in the third quarter of fiscal 2024[7] - Net loss for the three months ended October 31, 2023, was $130.910 million, compared to $86.267 million in the same period last year[31] - GAAP net loss for Q3 2024 was $(130.910) million, compared to $(86.267) million in Q3 2023, while non-GAAP net loss was $(37.782) million vs $(84.895) million in the prior year[34] Cash Flow and Liquidity - Cash flow from operations was $23.1 million, compared to $6.9 million in the same quarter last year[8] - Net cash used in operating activities for the nine months ended October 31, 2023, was $35.369 million, compared to $17.288 million in the same period last year[33] - Net cash provided by financing activities for the nine months ended October 31, 2023, was $396.100 million, compared to $96.442 million in the same period last year[33] - Free cash flow for Q3 2024 was $15.568 million, compared to $3.455 million in Q3 2023, with a free cash flow margin of 7% vs 2% in the prior year[35] - Net cash provided by operating activities for Q3 2024 was $23.095 million, compared to $6.917 million in Q3 2023[35] - Net cash used in investing activities for Q3 2024 was $(72.139) million, compared to $(99.781) million in Q3 2023[35] - Net cash provided by financing activities for Q3 2024 was $11.726 million, compared to $95.716 million in Q3 2023[35] Balance Sheet and Financial Position - Total assets as of October 31, 2023, were $1.268691 billion, up from $873.610 million as of January 31, 2023[32] - Cash and cash equivalents as of October 31, 2023, were $103.896 million, down from $130.031 million as of January 31, 2023[32] - Proceeds from the initial public offering and underwriters' exercise of over-allotment option, net of underwriting discounts and commissions, were $815.209 million[33] - Total current liabilities as of October 31, 2023, were $816.556 million, up from $656.281 million as of January 31, 2023[32] Operating Expenses and Investments - Research and development expenses for the three months ended October 31, 2023, were $80.050 million, up from $51.372 million in the same period last year[31] - GAAP operating loss for Q3 2024 was $(124.787) million, compared to $(65.279) million in Q3 2023, while non-GAAP operating loss was $(31.218) million vs $(63.859) million in the prior year[34]

Group 1 - The analysis focuses on the growth prospects of companies and utilizes the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for valuation [1] - Insights are provided on cash flow generation under various business models, indicating a thorough examination of financial performance [1] Group 2 - No stock or derivative positions are held by the analyst in the companies mentioned, ensuring an unbiased perspective [2] - The article reflects the author's opinions and is not influenced by compensation from any company [2] - There is no business relationship with any of the companies discussed, further supporting the independence of the analysis [2] Group 3 - Past performance is noted as not guaranteeing future results, emphasizing the need for careful consideration in investment decisions [3] - The article does not provide specific recommendations or advice regarding investment suitability for individual investors [3] - The views expressed may not represent the overall stance of Seeking Alpha, highlighting the diversity of opinions among analysts [3]

Most of us have heard the dictum "the trend is your friend." And this is undeniably the key to success when it comes to short-term investing or trading. But it isn't easy to ensure the sustainability of a trend and profit from it.The trend often reverses before exiting the trade, leading to a short-term capital loss for investors. So, for a profitable trade, one should confirm factors such as sound fundamentals, positive earnings estimate revisions, etc. that could keep the momentum in the stock alive.Our " ...