Core Viewpoint - The discussion focuses on the investment potential of platinum and palladium, highlighting their roles as alternatives to traditional precious metals like gold, particularly in the context of inflation and economic uncertainty [4][6][12]. Industry Overview - Platinum and palladium have been less prominent compared to gold and silver, but they are gaining attention due to their unique demand dynamics and potential as hedges against monetary risks [4][6]. - The demand for platinum is driven by both industrial and investment needs, with a significant portion of its use in various technologies, including hydrogen fuel cells [7][12]. Supply Dynamics - Platinum is approximately 30 times less abundant than gold, with most production concentrated in South Africa, primarily by Sibanye-Stillwater, which accounts for about 25% of global production [8][9]. - Recent production cuts by Sibanye-Stillwater due to low prices are expected to create a supply shortage, which could drive prices higher in the long term [20][21]. Investment Outlook - The PPLT ETF is highlighted as a strong investment choice, with expectations of increased demand for inflation hedges over the next decade [10][12]. - The price of platinum is anticipated to rise as it becomes a more recognized store of value, similar to gold, especially in times of economic volatility [15][16]. Market Trends - The price of platinum has seen a significant increase, with a reported 71% rise year-to-date, attributed to market realization of supply shortages and rising investment demand [19][20]. - The long-term outlook suggests that while industrial demand may stabilize, the growth in investment demand will be the primary driver for price increases [14][21]. Portfolio Allocation - It is suggested that investors consider a portfolio allocation of 5% to 15% in platinum, with the potential for higher positions due to its undervaluation compared to other metals [22].

Core Insights - The continuous surge in gold prices is unexpectedly benefiting emerging markets and boosting investor confidence in gold-producing and purchasing countries [1] - South Africa is poised for its best annual performance in two decades, with mining companies like Sibanye Stillwater, AngloGold Ashanti, and Gold Fields seeing their stock prices triple [1] - Emerging market fund managers are optimistic due to a 60% bull market in gold this year, which is enhancing wealth effects for both producing and purchasing countries [1] Group 1 - South Africa's stock market has seen a rise of over 30% this year, with the rand nearing a one-year high and 10-year government bond yields recently dropping below 9% for the first time in seven years [4] - The inflation slowdown has allowed the South African central bank to cut interest rates, further boosting market sentiment [4] - The current situation marks a dramatic turnaround for South Africa, which has struggled with political turmoil and power shortages affecting economic growth [4] Group 2 - Ghana is also benefiting from rising gold prices, with the cedi appreciating approximately 38% this year, the highest increase globally [7] - Investors are closely monitoring countries like Poland, Turkey, and Kazakhstan, which are increasing their gold reserves [7] - Despite the positive trend, it is cautioned that the impact of price changes should not be misinterpreted as a source of credit strength [7] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its forecast for spot gold prices for December 2026 from $4,300 to $4,900 per ounce [8] - Bank of America strategists predict that gold prices could reach $6,000 by next spring [8] - A low allocation of gold assets in global investment portfolios indicates that the market for structural bullish positioning in gold is not crowded [8]

Core Insights - Sibanye Stillwater Ltd. (NYSE:SBSW) reached a new 52-week high as gold prices surged past $4,300, indicating strong investor interest in mining stocks [1][2] - The company's stock price peaked at $13.11 during intra-day trading, ultimately closing at $12.82, reflecting a 6.04% increase [1] - The rise in gold prices was attributed to a 2.83% increase to $4,326.58, driven by optimism for interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions between the US and China [3] Group 1: Stock Performance - Sibanye Stillwater's stock performance was notably strong, with a 6.04% increase on the day it reached a 52-week high [1] - The stock's intra-day high of $13.11 demonstrates significant market interest and trading activity [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - Gold spot prices increased by 2.83% to $4,326.58, while platinum prices rose by 3.17% to $1,718 per ounce, reflecting a broader trend of investment in precious metals [3] - The increase in precious metal prices is linked to investor sentiment regarding potential interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical issues [3] Group 3: Shareholder Activity - The Public Investment Corporation (PIC) raised its stake in Sibanye Stillwater by 2.35%, increasing its total ownership to over 20%, solidifying its position as a major shareholder [4]

Group 1: Company Overview - Public Investment Corporation (PIC) has increased its shareholding in Sibanye-Stillwater to 20.42%, making it the largest investor in the mining company [1] - Sibanye-Stillwater operates mines across five continents and produces various metals including nickel, chrome, copper, and cobalt [2] Group 2: Investment and Financial Performance - PIC manages over R3 trillion (approximately $165.62 billion) in assets and has significantly invested in South Africa's resource sector, with a 42.5% gain in its precious metals and mining investments for the 2024/25 financial year due to increased safe-haven demand [3] - PIC plans to invest R1.35 billion in early-stage mining companies, with at least half of the investments focused on energy transition minerals such as copper and lithium [4]

Core Insights - Sibanye-Stillwater has achieved commercial operation at the Springbok solar photovoltaic project, marking a significant step in its decarbonization journey [1][4] - The Springbok project is part of Sibanye's broader strategy to develop renewable energy sources to support its mining operations and reduce carbon emissions [4][5] Group 1: Project Details - The Springbok solar project has a capacity of 150 megawatts alternating current (195 MWp peak direct current) and is developed by the SOLA Group [2] - Sibanye will procure 75MW (50%) of the plant's capacity for a 10-year period, with an option to extend the agreement [2] Group 2: Financial and Environmental Impact - The project is expected to generate yearly cost savings of more than R60 million across Sibanye's South African operations compared to Eskom utility rates [3] - It is anticipated that the Springbok project will provide approximately 4% of Sibanye's annual energy requirements in South Africa and reduce carbon dioxide equivalent emissions by 229,000 tonnes annually, which is 3.6% of the company's Scope 1 and 2 emissions [4] Group 3: Future Goals - The Springbok project is the second renewable energy project to achieve commercial operation in Sibanye's 407MW portfolio, contributing to the company's goal of carbon neutrality by 2040 [5] - In addition to Springbok, Sibanye also commenced operations at the 89MW Castle wind farm, bringing a total of 164MW of renewable energy projects online in 2025 [5]

Core Insights - Sibanye Stillwater (NYSE: SBSW) is a diversified commodity producer with global operations, and its stock has more than tripled in price this year, indicating strong market performance [1] - Despite the significant increase in stock price, it is suggested that the stock still does not fully reflect the company's potential as of 2025 [1] Company Overview - The company operates in various sectors, including commodities such as oil, natural gas, gold, and copper, as well as technology and emerging market stocks [1] - The focus on metals and mining stocks is highlighted, indicating a preference for these sectors within the broader investment strategy [1]

Core Insights - The precious metals market has experienced significant gains in 2025, with gold, silver, and platinum prices rising substantially, indicating a strong trend in hard assets [4][22]. Precious Metals Performance - Gold started the year at $2,645 per ounce and has risen to over $3,850, marking a gain of over 47% [4]. - Silver began at $29.60 per ounce and is now over $47, reflecting a gain of about 58% [4]. - Platinum started at $995 per ounce and is currently in the $1,600 range, achieving a gain of 60% [4]. Investment Considerations - The increase in precious metal prices is attributed to the declining value of the dollar, a trend that has been ongoing since the U.S. left the gold standard in 1971 [7][22]. - Investors are advised to hold physical metals rather than selling them, as they represent real money and are not subject to the liabilities associated with financial instruments [10][12]. Mining and Royalty Companies - The rise in precious metal prices has positively impacted mining and royalty companies, leading to significant stock price increases for several key players: - Franco Nevada Corp. (FNV) rose from $125 to $225 [15]. - Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) increased from $134 to $198 [15]. - Osisko Royalties (OR) went from $18 to over $39 [15]. - Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) climbed from $56 to $110 [15]. - Major mining companies also saw substantial gains: - Barrick Mining (B) increased from $14 to $33 [18]. - Newmont Mining (NEM) rose from $38 to $84 [18]. - Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) moved from $83 to $166 [19]. - Kinross Gold (KGC) increased from $9.50 to over $24 [19]. Market Outlook - The ongoing trend suggests that as long as precious metal prices continue to rise, royalty plays and mining companies will benefit from increased cash flow and profitability [16][24]. - The potential for a global recovery in faith in the dollar could impact precious metal prices, but such a scenario seems unlikely given current government spending trends [17][22].

Core Insights - Sibanye Stillwater Limited (NYSE:SBSW) experienced a significant surge in share prices, increasing by 16.98% week-on-week, reaching a record high due to rising platinum and gold prices [1][2] Group 1: Share Price Performance - On Friday, Sibanye's share price peaked at $11.25, marking a 52-week high, before closing at $11.16, up 4.69% for the day [2] - The increase in share prices was influenced by spot prices of gold and platinum, which rose by 0.28% and 3.37%, respectively [2] Group 2: Commodity Prices - Current spot prices are reported at $3,759.98 for gold and $1,580.56 for platinum per troy ounce [3] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to expectations of interest rate cuts, which typically weaken the US dollar, benefiting precious metals [3] Group 3: Strategic Developments - Sibanye recently completed the acquisition of Metallix Refining for $78 million, aimed at enhancing its US recycling operations [4] - The company anticipates that this acquisition will create significant value through cost and operational synergies [4]

Core Insights - Precious metals, particularly gold, continue to be a safe haven for investors during economic uncertainty, with historical trends showing increased interest during financial crises [1][2] - Precious metals stocks offer a way for equity investors to benefit from both the defensive nature of the underlying commodities and the growth potential of mining companies [2] - Gold has reached record highs in September 2025, driven by expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve, with a 93% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in October [3][4] Industry Overview - The interest in gold is expanding beyond central banks and Asian buyers to include U.S. and European investors, particularly through ETFs, as lower interest rates are anticipated [4] - The selection of the best precious metals stocks is based on U.S.-listed companies with exposure to gold, silver, palladium, or platinum, focusing on those most widely owned by hedge funds [7][8] Company Highlights - **Eldorado Gold Corp. (NYSE:EGO)**: - Market Cap: $5.7 Billion, with 25 hedge fund holders [9] - Expected gold production for 2025 is between 460,000 and 500,000 ounces, down from 520,293 ounces in 2024, but projected to increase by 44% to 605-665 Koz by 2027 [10] - Strong balance sheet with over $1.0 billion in cash and equivalents as of June 2025, and a recent price target increase from $27 to $34 by RBC Capital Markets [11][12] - **Sibanye Stillwater Ltd. (NYSE:SBSW)**: - Market Cap: $6.8 Billion, with 25 hedge fund holders [13] - Recently completed acquisition of Metallix Refining for approximately $129 million, expected to enhance U.S. recycling operations [14] - Analysts have raised price targets, with RBC Capital increasing from $8.00 to $9.50, despite mixed performance in H1 2025 results [15][16]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Group adjusted EBITDA increased by 120% compared to the same period in 2024, reaching ZAR 10 billion, and even excluding the 45X credits, it was still 51% higher [6][7] - Net debt to adjusted EBITDA improved to 0.89 times, significantly below the market's earlier projections [7] - The total fair value of the 45X credits is projected to increase to ZAR 12.6 billion by 2034, representing 32% of the acquisition value of the Stillwater operations [8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - South African PGM operations produced 840,400 ounces, a 4% decrease year-on-year, with underground operations consistent at 750,000 ounces [60] - South African gold operations saw a 36% increase in average gold price received, reaching slightly more than ZAR 1.8 million per kilogram, while adjusted EBITDA increased by 118% to ZAR 4.8 billion [66] - Montana PGM operations produced 141,000 ounces at an all-in sustaining cost of $1,207 per ounce, reflecting a 41% decrease in costs compared to pre-restructuring [75] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gold prices increased by 26% in the first half of the year, with average trading volumes reaching $329 billion per day, the highest for any half-year period on record [49] - PGM prices have rallied due to tight supply, with platinum prices outperforming due to lower mine supplies [50] - Lithium market remains oversupplied, with average prices around $9,000 per ton, but recent price movements have seen a rise to over $11,000 per ton due to Chinese government actions [57][58] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on commodity diversification, particularly in gold and lithium, to stabilize earnings during volatile market cycles [26] - A multipolarity strategy is being implemented to enhance local supply of critical minerals, with significant investments in lithium projects in Europe [26][29] - Sustainability remains a core aspect of the company's strategy, with recent acquisitions aimed at expanding recycling capabilities [31][32] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to thrive in a turbulent industry, highlighting a strong earnings trend and decreasing leverage [25][11] - The outlook for the second half of the year is positive, with expectations of improved results driven by higher commodity prices [74] - Management acknowledged challenges in certain operations but emphasized ongoing assessments to optimize production and maintain safety [71][72] Other Important Information - The company reported three fatalities during the reporting period, emphasizing safety as the top priority and ongoing efforts to improve safety metrics [5][23] - A strategic project status was granted for both the Calibre and Galicam projects under the EU Critical Raw Materials Act, providing access to grants and tax credits [29] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for dividend payments? - The company has decided not to pay dividends at the interim stage but will review this at year-end, with confidence in returning to dividend-paying territory if commodity prices remain stable [42][43] Question: How is the company addressing the challenges in the gold operations? - Management is actively reviewing the Cliff operations to optimize long-term sustainability and has revised production guidance for managed operations [72][74] Question: What are the expectations for the lithium market? - The company remains bullish on the long-term demand for lithium, forecasting a healthy CAGR for battery electric vehicle production over the next decade [58]