[Second Quarter Fiscal 2025 and Back-to-School Highlights](index=1&type=section&id=Second%20Quarter%20Fiscal%202025%20and%20Back-to-School%20Highlights) Shoe Carnival exceeded profit consensus in Q2 FY2025, achieving its strongest gross margin in years and positive comparable sales during the Back-to-School period - Delivered **$0.70 EPS**, exceeding consensus by over **20 percent**[5](index=5&type=chunk) - Expanded gross profit margin by **270 basis points to 38.8 percent**, representing the strongest Q2 margin performance in years[3](index=3&type=chunk)[5](index=5&type=chunk)[7](index=7&type=chunk) - Achieved positive comparable sales and margin expansion across all banners during the August Back-to-School period, ahead of projected timelines[3](index=3&type=chunk)[5](index=5&type=chunk)[10](index=10&type=chunk) - Shoe Station's rebanner strategy achieved **8 percent comparable sales growth** through year-to-date August[5](index=5&type=chunk) - Grew cash by **double digits** through fiscal August with **zero debt**, positioning the company to fund growth[5](index=5&type=chunk) [Shoe Station Growth Strategy](index=1&type=section&id=Shoe%20Station%20Growth%20Strategy) The company is aggressively executing its Shoe Station rebanner strategy, aiming for it to be the majority concept by Back-to-School 2026, delivering strong financial returns and increased margins Store Count as of August 2, 2025 | Banner | Count | | :------------ | :---- | | Shoe Carnival | 313 | | Shoe Station | 87 | | Rogan's | 28 | | **Total** | **428** | - Completed **20 rebanner conversions** in Q2 2025, totaling **44 year-to-date conversions**[5](index=5&type=chunk) - Expected to reach **145 Shoe Station stores** by year-end fiscal 2025 (**34% of fleet**) and exceed **215 stores** by Back-to-School 2026 (**over 51% threshold**)[5](index=5&type=chunk)[6](index=6&type=chunk) - First-year rebanner investments of approximately **$25 million** are expected to impact fiscal 2025 operating income, with a **$0.36 EPS impact** incurred year-to-date, and a payback period of two to three years[6](index=6&type=chunk) [Second Quarter Operating Results](index=2&type=section&id=Second%20Quarter%20Operating%20Results) Q2 FY2025 saw a 7.9% net sales decrease and 7.5% comparable sales decline, yet gross profit margin expanded by 270 basis points to 38.8% due to strategic initiatives Second Quarter Fiscal 2025 Operating Results | Metric | Q2 FY2025 | Q2 FY2024 | Change (%) | | :-------------------- | :------------ | :------------ | :------------ | | Net Sales | $306.4 million | $332.7 million | -7.9% | | Comparable Sales | -7.5% | N/A | N/A | | Gross Profit Margin | 38.8% | 36.1% | +270 bps | | Net Income | $19.2 million | $22.6 million | -15.0% | | Diluted EPS | $0.70 | $0.82 | -14.6% | - Merchandise margin improved by **390 basis points**, driven by disciplined pricing, a favorable mix shift, and strategic inventory investments[7](index=7&type=chunk) - Q2 2025 EPS included a **$0.21 negative impact** from rebanner investments, contributing to an estimated **1% net sales decline** from temporary closures and a **2% increase in SG&A** as a percent of net sales[8](index=8&type=chunk)[9](index=9&type=chunk) [Back-to-School Performance Update](index=2&type=section&id=Back-to-School%20Performance%20Update) Fiscal August, including Back-to-School, showed significant acceleration with positive comparable sales year-over-year, driven by Shoe Station and strong children's category performance - The company achieved positive comparable sales year-over-year in fiscal August, a significant improvement from Q2 trends and ahead of projected timelines[10](index=10&type=chunk) - Comparable sales increased by **high-single digits** and rebanner margins expanded by **270 basis points** during fiscal August[11](index=11&type=chunk) Fiscal August Performance by Banner | Banner | Net Sales Growth | Comparable Sales Growth | Key Drivers | | :------------ | :--------------- | :---------------------- | :------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | Shoe Station | +1.6% | High-single digits | High-single digit growth in children's, low-twenties growth in adult athletics, with margin expansion | | Shoe Carnival | -10.1% | Positive children's category sales with margin growth | Sub-$40,000 income consumer remained pressured | | Rogan's | Exceeded $20M | Comparable sales growth | In line with integration plans | [Balance Sheet Strength](index=3&type=section&id=Balance%20Sheet%20Strength) Shoe Carnival maintains a strong, debt-free balance sheet, funding growth from operating cash flow, with substantial cash reserves at Q2 2025 and fiscal August end - Ended Q2 2025 **debt-free** and fully funded operations and growth investments from operating cash flow[13](index=13&type=chunk) Cash and Cash Equivalents | Period | Amount (in millions) | | :---------------------- | :------------------- | | End of Q2 2025 | $91.9 | | August fiscal month end | ~$148 | | Change YoY (August) | >10% increase | - Inventory increased by **5%** year-over-year, a strategic investment that improved key item availability during Back-to-School, contributing to margin expansion and sales capture, with normalization expected in 2026[14](index=14&type=chunk) - Capital expenditures totaled **$24.4 million** year-to-date, primarily for **44 completed rebanner conversions**[15](index=15&type=chunk) - The company has **$50 million** remaining under its share repurchase authorization[15](index=15&type=chunk) [Fiscal 2025 Outlook](index=3&type=section&id=Fiscal%202025%20Outlook) Shoe Carnival updated its Fiscal 2025 outlook, anticipating slower sales decline, increased gross profit margin, and higher capital expenditures due to strong Q2 and rebanner momentum Updated Fiscal 2025 Outlook | Metric | New Range | Previous Range | Notes | | :-------------------- | :---------------------------- | :---------------------------- | :------------------------------------------- | | Net Sales | $1.12 billion to $1.15 billion | $1.15 billion to $1.23 billion | Lowered | | GAAP EPS | $1.70 to $2.10 | Lower end increased by $0.10 | Increased lower end | | Gross Profit Margin | 36.5% to 37.5% | N/A | 150-basis point increase | | SG&A | $355 million to $360 million | N/A | Inclusive of increased rebanner investment | | Capital Expenditures | $45 to $55 million | N/A | Inclusive of $30 to $35 million for rebanners| - The outlook anticipates sales declines will slow in the second half, with the midpoint implying a **3% decline** versus the **7.7% year-to-date decline**, reflecting rebanner momentum and strong event performance[17](index=17&type=chunk) - As Shoe Station grows, its gains are expected to increasingly offset Shoe Carnival's challenges[17](index=17&type=chunk) [Company Information & Conference Call](index=3&type=section&id=Company%20Information%20%26%20Conference%20Call) Shoe Carnival, Inc. is a major family footwear retailer with 428 stores across 35 states and Puerto Rico, and hosted a Q2 results conference call on September 4, 2025 - Shoe Carnival, Inc. is one of the nation's largest family footwear retailers, offering a broad assortment of dress, casual, and athletic footwear from national name brands[21](index=21&type=chunk) - As of September 4, 2025, the company operated **428 stores** in **35 states and Puerto Rico** under its Shoe Carnival, Shoe Station, and Rogan's banners, with online shopping available[21](index=21&type=chunk) - A conference call was hosted on **September 4, 2025, at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time** to discuss Q2 results, with a live webcast and archived replay available[18](index=18&type=chunk)[20](index=20&type=chunk) [Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Information](index=4&type=section&id=Cautionary%20Statement%20Regarding%20Forward-Looking%20Information) This cautionary statement highlights that forward-looking information in the press release is subject to risks and uncertainties, including rebanner strategy success, competition, and economic conditions, with no obligation to update - The press release contains forward-looking statements involving risks and uncertainties, where actual results, performance, or achievements could materially differ[23](index=23&type=chunk)[24](index=24&type=chunk) - Key factors influencing actual results include the success of rebannering and Shoe Station growth, competitive pressures, economic downturns, supply chain constraints, and shifts in consumer buying trends[24](index=24&type=chunk)[25](index=25&type=chunk) - The company cautions investors against undue reliance on these forward-looking statements and disclaims any obligation to update them[25](index=25&type=chunk) [Financial Tables](index=6&type=section&id=Financial%20Tables) This section presents unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements for Shoe Carnival, Inc., including Statements of Income, Balance Sheets, and Cash Flows, providing detailed financial performance and position data Condensed Consolidated Statements of Income (Thirteen Weeks Ended) | Metric (in thousands) | August 2, 2025 | August 3, 2024 | | :---------------------------------------- | :------------- | :------------- | | Net sales | $306,388 | $332,696 | | Cost of sales | $187,580 | $212,753 | | Gross profit | $118,808 | $119,943 | | Selling, general and administrative expenses | $93,580 | $89,864 | | Operating income | $25,228 | $30,079 | | Net income | $19,225 | $22,573 | | Diluted EPS | $0.70 | $0.82 | | Cash dividends declared per share | $0.150 | $0.135 | Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets (as of) | Metric (in thousands) | August 2, 2025 | August 3, 2024 | | :------------------------------ | :------------- | :------------- | | Cash and cash equivalents | $78,719 | $71,633 | | Merchandise inventories | $449,005 | $425,462 | | Total Current Assets | $574,068 | $537,096 | | Total Assets | $1,165,253 | $1,115,027 | | Total Current Liabilities | $156,463 | $159,990 | | Total Liabilities | $494,563 | $496,532 | | Total Shareholders' Equity | $670,690 | $618,495 | Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows (Twenty-six Weeks Ended) | Metric (in thousands) | August 2, 2025 | August 3, 2024 | | :---------------------------------------- | :------------- | :------------- | | Net cash provided by operating activities | $3,622 | $40,742 | | Net cash used in investing activities | $(22,936) | $(60,141) | | Net cash used in financing activities | $(10,647) | $(7,968) | | Net decrease in cash and cash equivalents | $(29,961) | $(27,367) | | Cash and cash equivalents at end of period | $78,719 | $71,633 |

Stock Recommendations - Zacks 排名第一的股票为强力买入推荐 [1] - Zacks 排名第五的股票为强力卖出推荐 [1] Investment Opportunities - Zacks 提供未来 30 天内有望跑赢市场的七支股票 [1] Resources - 更多信息请访问 zachs.com/bull [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shoe Carnival (SCVL) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings due to lower revenues for the quarter ended July 2025, with the consensus outlook indicating a significant impact on the stock price based on actual results compared to estimates [1][3]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to show quarterly earnings of $0.55 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 33.7%, while revenues are projected to be $309.96 million, down 6.8% from the previous year [3]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 15.25% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that the Most Accurate Estimate matches the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of 0%, suggesting no recent differing analyst views [12]. - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank of 5, which complicates predictions of an earnings beat [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Shoe Carnival exceeded the expected earnings of $0.27 per share by delivering $0.34, resulting in a surprise of +25.93% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates [14]. Conclusion - Shoe Carnival does not appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat based on current estimates and rankings, but investors should consider other factors when making decisions regarding the stock ahead of the earnings release [17].

Financial Performance - Net Income for Q1 2025 was $9.3 million, or $0.34 per diluted share, down from $17.3 million, or $0.63 per diluted share in Q1 2024[69] - Net Sales declined 7.5% in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024, with a 10.0% decline at the Shoe Carnival banner, while Shoe Station saw a 4.9% increase[70] - Comparable stores Net Sales decreased by 8.1%, primarily due to declines at the Shoe Carnival banner, partially offset by increases at Shoe Station[70] - Gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 34.5%, down from 35.6% in Q1 2024, while Cost of Sales increased to 65.5% of Net Sales[68] - Operating Income for Q1 2025 was 4.3%, a decrease from 7.5% in Q1 2024, reflecting the impact of the rebanner strategy and industry headwinds[68] - Net Sales for Q1 2025 were $277.7 million, a decrease of $22.7 million or 7.5% compared to Q1 2024, primarily due to a 10.0% decline in the Shoe Carnival banner[78] - Gross Profit for Q1 2025 was $95.8 million, down $11.0 million from Q1 2024, with a gross profit margin of 34.5% compared to 35.6% in Q1 2024[79] - SG&A expenses decreased slightly to $83.8 million in Q1 2025, but as a percentage of Net Sales, they increased to 30.2% from 28.1% in Q1 2024[80] - Net cash used in operating activities was $9.6 million in Q1 2025, compared to net cash provided of $17.1 million in Q1 2024, driven by inventory purchase timing and lower earnings[84] Store Strategy and Capital Expenditures - The company plans to rebanner approximately 120 stores, or 28% of its current fleet, to Shoe Station by the end of Fiscal 2025, up from a previous goal of 51%[72] - The rebanner strategy is expected to reduce annual Operating Income by $20 to $25 million due to various associated costs[73] - Capital expenditures for the rebanner initiative are projected to be between $30 to $40 million in Fiscal 2025, with $10.3 million incurred in Q1 2025[75] - Capital expenditures for Fiscal 2025 are expected to be between $45 million and $60 million, with significant allocations for store rebanners and upgrades to the distribution center[96] - The company plans to rebanner over 50 additional Shoe Carnival stores into Shoe Station stores by March 2027, aiming for over 80% of the store fleet to operate as Shoe Station stores[97] Financial Position and Shareholder Returns - The company ended Q1 2025 with approximately $93.0 million in Cash, Cash Equivalents, and Marketable Securities, and $99.0 million available under its credit facility[76] - Working capital increased to $399.0 million at May 3, 2025, up from $355.8 million at May 4, 2024, primarily due to a higher cash balance and increased merchandise inventories[85] - The Board of Directors approved an 11.1% increase in the quarterly cash dividend to $0.15 per share, with $4.4 million returned to shareholders in Q1 2025[98] - The company has a $100 million Credit Agreement, with compliance on covenants as of May 3, 2025, allowing for dividends and share repurchases under certain conditions[91] - No share repurchases have been made in Fiscal 2025 to date, with the share repurchase program authorized for up to $50 million effective January 1, 2025[99] Inventory Management - Merchandise Inventories increased approximately 4% at the end of Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024, with inventory purchased in advance of tariff increases[77]

Group 1 - Shoe Carnival (NASDAQ: SCVL) has lost 50% of its value over the last year, presenting a buying opportunity for dividend investors [1] - The company is considered an under-the-radar small cap, making it attractive for portfolio diversification [1] - The investment approach focuses on identifying businesses that meet long-term success criteria, influenced by notable investors like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger [1] Group 2 - The analyst, Spencer Chrisman, is a Certified Public Accountant (CPA) with experience in structured finance, capital markets, and credit risk [1] - Spencer is planning to create an investment series on a $1M portfolio of dividend stocks [1]

Group 1 - The investment strategy focuses on long-only investment, evaluating companies from an operational and buy-and-hold perspective [1] - The approach does not prioritize market-driven dynamics or future price action, instead emphasizing long-term earnings power and competitive dynamics [1] - Most recommendations will be holds, indicating a cautious approach to market conditions, with only a small fraction of companies deemed suitable for purchase at any time [1] Group 2 - The articles aim to provide important information for future investors and introduce skepticism in a generally bullish market [1] - There is a clear distinction made between the author's opinions and professional investment advice, emphasizing the need for readers to conduct their own due diligence [2][3]

Group 1 - Shoe Carnival has faced significant challenges over the past several months, indicating a decline in performance [1] - The company was previously reaffirmed as a 'buy' candidate in July of the previous year, suggesting a potential for recovery [1] Group 2 - Crude Value Insights focuses on cash flow and companies in the oil and natural gas sector, highlighting the importance of financial health for investment decisions [2] - Subscribers to the service benefit from a comprehensive stock model account and in-depth cash flow analyses of exploration and production firms [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's first quarter profits outperformed expectations by approximately 10% despite a year-over-year decrease in net income to $9.3 million or $0.34 per diluted share, down from $17.3 million or $0.63 per diluted share in Q1 of fiscal 2024 [29][30][35] - Net sales totaled $277.7 million, a decline of 7.5% compared to $300.4 million last year, with comparable store sales down 8.1% [35][36] - The company ended the quarter with $93 million in cash, up over 30% compared to the end of Q1 last year, maintaining a debt-free position [33][35] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Shoe Station achieved sales growth of 4.9% and was comp positive in the quarter, contrasting with Shoe Carnival's total sales decline of 10% [30][36] - Rogan's net sales remained consistent at over $19 million for both this year and last year, aligning with synergy and integration plans [36] - The rebanner initiative is expected to result in a $0.65 drag on EPS this year, with future benefits anticipated as the performance of rebannered stores improves [43][72] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The family footwear industry experienced a decline, with Shoe Carnival's performance reflecting broader industry challenges, particularly among lower-income consumers [9][36] - Shoe Station's performance in various markets, including rural and diverse demographics, indicates a strong growth opportunity, with sales growth exceeding 20% in some locations [14][17][19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding Shoe Station to represent over 80% of its store fleet by March 2027, up from a previous target of 51% [18][50] - The rebanner initiative is seen as the best use of capital, with a two to three year payback period expected [31][44] - The company plans to maintain elevated inventory levels to navigate marketplace uncertainties and ensure product availability [21][34] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism about the back-to-school season, citing a compelling assortment and stable product costs [4][9] - The company does not anticipate a return to profitable sales growth in the near term but expects a moderating sales decline trend in the latter half of the year [9][45] - Management emphasized the importance of consumer sentiment as a key factor influencing future performance [84] Other Important Information - The company is committed to pursuing mergers and acquisitions to achieve its long-term vision of being the leading footwear retailer for families [25][26] - The corporate headquarters has been designated in Fort Mill, South Carolina, to enhance collaboration with vendor partners and improve operational efficiencies [27][28] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is driving the decision to expand Shoe Station stores more quickly? - Management noted that there is significant white space nationally for Shoe Station, where the competitive set is not fully meeting the needs of higher-end customers [58][60] Question: How is the performance of dress shoes in Shoe Station? - Management confirmed that the dress assortment offered is a competitive advantage, with strong performance in both men's and women's categories [61][62] Question: What is the expected impact of rebannerings on next year's earnings? - Management indicated that while there will be a drag on EPS due to accelerated costs, the performance of rebannered stores is expected to improve, potentially offsetting some of the negative impact [72][73] Question: How are trends in March and April compared to February? - Management stated that February was challenging, but March and April showed improvement, particularly for Shoe Station, although overall consumer sentiment remains a concern [88][89]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's first quarter net income was $9.3 million or $0.34 per diluted share, which exceeded analyst consensus despite being lower than the $17.3 million or $0.63 per diluted share reported in Q1 of fiscal 2024 [30] - First quarter net sales totaled $277.7 million, a decline of 7.5% compared to $300.4 million last year, with comparable store sales down 8.1% [35][36] - The company ended the quarter with $93 million in cash, up over 30% or $23.5 million compared to the end of Q1 last year, maintaining a debt-free position [33] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Shoe Station achieved sales growth of 4.9% and was comp positive in the quarter, contrasting with Shoe Carnival's total sales decline of 10% [36] - Rogan's achieved results in line with synergy and integration plans, with net sales above $19 million both this year and last year [36] - The rebanner initiative is expected to yield a two to three year payback period, with early results showing double-digit sales growth and improved product margins [32][44] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The family footwear industry experienced a decline, with Shoe Carnival's performance reflecting industry-wide challenges [36] - Athletic footwear, which accounted for 46% of revenue, showed mid-single digit declines, while Shoe Station's athletic business grew in the low teens [37] - Children's footwear represented 18% of business and experienced a low teens decline, but Shoe Station's kids business declined only low singles, outperforming the company average [39] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to transform Shoe Station into a national footwear and accessories market leader, planning to have over 80% of its store fleet as Shoe Station by March 2027 [19][50] - The rebanner initiative is seen as the best use of capital, with a focus on expanding into new markets and capturing higher income households [10][50] - The company is committed to pursuing M&A opportunities to achieve its long-term vision of being the leading footwear retailer for families [26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism about the back-to-school season, citing a compelling assortment and stable product costs [4][5] - The company does not anticipate a return to profitable sales growth in the near term but expects a moderating sales decline trend in the latter half of the year [8][46] - Management emphasized the importance of consumer sentiment as a key factor influencing future performance, particularly in light of current economic conditions [83] Other Important Information - The company has made a deliberate decision to maintain elevated inventory levels to navigate marketplace uncertainties, ensuring stores are fully stocked for key shopping seasons [22][23] - The company is strategically buying goods at lower cost bases where appropriate, positioning itself well for potential margin gains [24] - The annual meeting of shareholders is scheduled for June 25, 2025, with related materials available on the investor website [48] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is driving the decision to expand Shoe Station stores more quickly? - Management noted that there is significant white space nationally for higher-end customers that competitors are not fulfilling, leading to the decision to accelerate the expansion of Shoe Station [57][59] Question: How are the initial results from rebannered stores expected to perform going forward? - Management indicated that early results are encouraging, with double-digit growth in sales and higher average unit retail prices, suggesting sustained performance [66][68] Question: What is the expected impact of the rebanner initiative on next year's earnings? - Management acknowledged that the rebanner initiative will have a drag on next year's earnings, but they anticipate significant revenue growth from these stores [70][72] Question: How does the company view the current tariff situation and its impact on pricing? - Management expressed cautious optimism, stating that they have not experienced any significant cost increases and are well-positioned to manage inventory and pricing [80][82] Question: How did sales trends in the first quarter compare across different months? - Management reported that February was challenging, but March and April showed improvement, particularly for Shoe Station, although overall consumer sentiment remains a concern [88]

Core Viewpoint - Shoe Carnival reported quarterly earnings of $0.34 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.27 per share, but down from $0.64 per share a year ago, indicating a significant earnings surprise of 25.93% [1][2] Financial Performance - The company posted revenues of $277.72 million for the quarter ended April 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.52% and down from $300.36 million year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Shoe Carnival has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times but has only topped revenue estimates once [2] Stock Performance - Shoe Carnival shares have declined approximately 44.3% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 0.5% [3] - The current Zacks Rank for Shoe Carnival is 4 (Sell), indicating expectations of underperformance in the near future [6] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.53 on revenues of $316.84 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $1.60 on revenues of $1.16 billion [7] - The trend for earnings estimate revisions ahead of the earnings release was unfavorable, which may impact future stock movements [6] Industry Context - The Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry, to which Shoe Carnival belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 32% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting potential challenges for the stock's performance [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which could be a useful metric for investors [5]