Core Viewpoint - Shares of Savers Value Village (SVV) have increased by 7.5% recently, with a mean price target of $15.33 suggesting a potential upside of 36.6% from the current price of $11.22 [1] Price Targets - The average price target consists of nine estimates ranging from a low of $10 to a high of $25, with a standard deviation of $5.34, indicating variability among analysts [2] - The lowest estimate suggests a decline of 10.9%, while the highest indicates a potential upside of 122.8% [2] - A low standard deviation signifies a higher agreement among analysts regarding price movement [7] Analyst Sentiment - Analysts are optimistic about SVV's earnings prospects, as indicated by a trend of upward revisions in earnings estimates, which historically correlates with stock price movements [9] - Over the past 30 days, two earnings estimates have increased, leading to a 7.6% rise in the Zacks Consensus Estimate [10] Zacks Rank - SVV holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate factors, suggesting strong potential for upside [11] Conclusion on Price Targets - While consensus price targets may not reliably indicate the extent of potential gains, they can provide a directional guide for stock movement [12]

Group 1 - The company Crude Value Insights operates in the retail space, focusing on oil and natural gas investment services and community [1] - The company emphasizes cash flow and identifies firms that generate it, leading to potential value and growth opportunities [1] - Subscribers to the service gain access to a model account with over 50 stocks, detailed cash flow analyses of exploration and production (E&P) firms, and live sector discussions [2] Group 2 - The service offers a two-week free trial for new subscribers, promoting engagement in the oil and gas sector [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total net sales increased by 0.5% to $395 million, with a constant currency increase of 1.2% and comparable store sales decreased by 2.4% [22] - Adjusted EBITDA was $82 million, representing an adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.8% [28] - GAAP net income for the quarter was $21.7 million, or $0.13 per diluted share, while adjusted net income was $25.1 million, or $0.15 per diluted share [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. net sales increased by 6.2% to $212 million, with comparable store sales up by 1.6% driven by growth in both transactions and average basket [22] - Canadian net sales declined by 7.1% to $152 million, with comparable store sales down by 7.5%, primarily due to declines in transactions [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Canadian macroeconomic environment remains challenging, with a 6.5% unemployment rate and rising cost of living affecting low-income consumers [9] - Loyalty program growth was solid, with double-digit percentage growth in active members in both the U.S. and Canada, accounting for 72% of total sales in the quarter, up from 70% last year [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to open 29 new stores this year and has accelerated its new store opening plans for 2025, now expecting to open 25 to 30 new stores [14][25] - The company is focusing on expanding off-site processing capabilities, which is critical for new store growth and operational efficiency [16] - The long-term strategy emphasizes growth in the U.S. market, with approximately 60% of new store openings in 2025 planned for the U.S. [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in long-term growth prospects despite current challenges, particularly in Canada, and emphasized the importance of innovation and operational effectiveness [19][85] - The company is actively testing different pricing and discounting approaches to improve performance in Canada, with a focus on strategic price reductions by category and grade [12][45] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately 1.8 million shares during the quarter at an average price of $9.86 per share, with $29 million remaining on the share repurchase authorization [30] - The balance sheet remains strong with $138 million in cash and cash equivalents and a net leverage ratio of 2.1 times at the end of the quarter [30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on same-store sales trends in Q3 and early Q4? - Management noted that trends in both Canada and the U.S. improved from July through September, continuing into early Q4 [35] Question: Can you break down drivers of gross margin contraction in Q3? - Gross margin contraction was primarily driven by new stores and deleverage on lower comparable sales [36][37] Question: What tests were conducted to improve Canadian business performance? - Management conducted several promotional and pricing strategy tests, with strategic price reductions showing the most promise [44][45] Question: What is the thought process behind the guidance adjustments? - The guidance was narrowed to reflect the softer performance in Canada and consistent trends in the U.S. [52] Question: What actions are being taken to mitigate macro difficulties in Canada? - Management is implementing targeted pricing changes and monitoring competitive pressures to improve performance [76][78] Question: Can you provide updates on the integration of the 2 Peaches acquisition? - The company has converted two of the seven stores acquired from 2 Peaches to its operational model, with positive early results [101]

Core Insights - Savers Value Village (SVV) reported revenue of $394.8 million for the quarter ended September 2024, reflecting a 0.5% increase year-over-year, but fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $401.94 million by 1.78% [1] - The company's EPS was $0.15, down from $0.16 in the same quarter last year, resulting in an EPS surprise of -11.76% against the consensus estimate of $0.17 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Comparable Store Sales Growth - Total: -2.4%, compared to the three-analyst average estimate of -1% [3] - Comparable Store Sales Growth - United States: 1.6%, below the 2.6% average estimate [3] - Comparable Store Sales Growth - Canada: -7.5%, worse than the -4.5% estimated by analysts [3] - Number of Stores - United States: 167, slightly below the two-analyst average estimate of 169 [3] - Number of Stores - Canada: 164, in line with the average estimate of 163 [3] - U.S. Retail Revenue: $212.47 million, below the $215.45 million estimate, but a 6.2% increase year-over-year [3] - Other Revenue: $30.44 million, exceeding the $29.70 million estimate, with a year-over-year change of 4.8% [3] - Canada Retail Revenue: $151.89 million, below the $157.26 million estimate, representing a 7.1% decline year-over-year [3] Stock Performance - Shares of Savers Value have returned +8.1% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +3.2% change [4] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [4]

Core Viewpoint - Savers Value Village (SVV) reported quarterly earnings of $0.15 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.17 per share, and showing a decline from $0.16 per share a year ago, indicating an earnings surprise of -11.76% [1] Financial Performance - The company posted revenues of $394.8 million for the quarter ended September 2024, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.78%, and showing a slight increase from $392.7 million year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Savers Value has consistently failed to surpass consensus EPS and revenue estimates [2] Stock Performance - Savers Value shares have declined approximately 37.9% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 24.3% [3] - The current Zacks Rank for Savers Value is 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the market in the near future [6] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.12 on revenues of $397.47 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $0.51 on revenues of $1.54 billion [7] - The trend of estimate revisions for Savers Value is mixed, which could change following the recent earnings report [6] Industry Context - The Textile - Apparel industry, to which Savers Value belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 41% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting potential challenges for stock performance [8] - Comparatively, Lululemon (LULU), another company in the same industry, is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.73 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 7.9% [9]

Financial Performance - Net sales increased by 0.5% to $394.8 million, with U.S. sales up 6.2% and Canada down 7.1%[2] - Comparable store sales decreased by 2.4%, with U.S. increasing by 1.6% and Canada decreasing by 7.5%[2] - Net income was $21.7 million, with an adjusted net income of $25.1 million, resulting in net income per diluted share of $0.13 and adjusted net income per diluted share of $0.15[2] - Adjusted EBITDA was $82.0 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.8%[2] - Operating income for the thirteen weeks ended September 28, 2024, was $48,638, compared to $20,345 in the same period of 2023, indicating a significant increase of 139.5%[18] - Net income for the thirteen weeks ended September 28, 2024, was $21,681, a turnaround from a net loss of $15,612 in the same period of 2023[23] - Basic net income per share for the thirteen weeks ended September 28, 2024, was $0.13, compared to a loss of $0.10 per share in the same period of 2023[23] - Adjusted net income for the thirteen weeks ended September 28, 2024, was $25,088,000, compared to $26,519,000 for the same period in 2023[29] - Net income per diluted share for the thirteen weeks ended September 28, 2024, was $0.13, compared to a net loss of $0.10 for the same period in 2023[29] - Adjusted EBITDA for the thirteen weeks ended September 28, 2024, was $81,998 thousand, down 9.0% from $91,010 thousand in the prior year[33] Sales and Revenue - Total active members in loyalty programs increased by 11.5% to 5.8 million, accounting for nearly 72% of total sales in the quarter[2] - The updated fiscal 2024 outlook includes total net sales of approximately $1.53 billion to $1.54 billion[4] - Projected net income for fiscal 2024 is approximately $44 million to $49 million, with adjusted net income projected at $81 million to $86 million[4] - U.S. Retail net sales increased by $12,343,000 (6.2%) to $212,470,000 for the thirteen weeks ended September 28, 2024, compared to $200,127,000 for the same period in 2023[25] - Canada Retail net sales decreased by $11,632,000 (7.1%) to $151,886,000 for the same period, down from $163,518,000[25] - Total net sales for the company increased by $2,099,000 (0.5%) to $394,797,000 for the thirteen weeks ended September 28, 2024, compared to $392,698,000 in the prior year[25] - The U.S. Retail segment's total net sales for the thirty-nine weeks ended September 28, 2024, increased by $31,470,000 (5.4%) to $612,118,000 compared to $580,648,000 in the prior year[26] Store Operations and Expansion - The company plans to open 29 new stores in fiscal 2024, including 22 organic openings and 7 from the Peaches acquisition[4] - The total number of stores increased to 344 as of September 28, 2024, from 321 in the same period last year[37] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets as of September 28, 2024, were $1,889,671, an increase from $1,867,405 as of December 30, 2023[19] - Total liabilities decreased to $1,456,788 as of September 28, 2024, from $1,491,350 as of December 30, 2023[19] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period were $137,719, down from $179,955 at the beginning of the period[21] Capital Expenditures and Debt - The company incurred $80,146 in capital expenditures for property and equipment during the thirteen weeks ended September 28, 2024[21] - The company reported a loss on extinguishment of debt of $4,088 for the thirty-nine weeks ended September 28, 2024, compared to a loss of $16,626 for the same period in 2023[21] - The company reported an interest expense of $15,466 thousand for the thirteen weeks ended September 28, 2024, down from $18,708 thousand in the same period last year[33] Market Strategy - The company remains focused on driving stronger performance in Canada despite macroeconomic pressures[2] - The company anticipates continued focus on market expansion and new product development as part of its strategic initiatives moving forward[36]

Investment Overview - Savers Value Village (NYSE:SVV) is rated as a hold due to expected underperformance in Canada operations, influenced by high mortgage rates affecting household income [2] - The robust outlook in the US is not anticipated to sufficiently offset the weaknesses in Canada, suggesting better investment alternatives in the US market [2] Business Description - SVV operates as a leading for-profit thrift store in the US and Canada, sourcing merchandise through non-profit partners and processing it in centralized centers [3] - The US market accounts for 52% of FY23 revenue, while Canada contributes 40% [3] 2Q24 Earnings - SVV reported sales of $386.7 million, missing consensus expectations of $391.1 million, with same-store sales growth declining from 0.3% in 1Q24 to -0.1% in 2Q24 [4] - Gross margin was reported at 57.9%, below the expected 59.1%, leading to an adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.7%, also below the consensus of 21.4% [4] - Management has lowered FY24 guidance for adjusted EBITDA to $290 to $310 million, down from $330 to $340 million, with expected sales revised to $1.53 to $1.56 billion [4] US Market Outlook - US same-store sales growth remains strong, with a favorable macro environment driving consumer behavior towards value purchases [5][6] - The loyalty program is experiencing double-digit growth, particularly among younger and higher-income customers, indicating a positive trend for SVV [7] Canada Market Outlook - Canada operations are facing significant headwinds, with deteriorating same-store sales growth and negative consumer demand trends [9] - High interest rates in Canada are expected to pressure household income, particularly as many mortgages are up for refinancing at higher rates [10] Valuation - SVV's valuation is likely to remain depressed due to concerns over Canadian performance, despite a strong outlook in the US [11] - Competitors like Ross Stores and Ollie's Bargain Outlet are seen as better investment options due to clearer growth prospects [11] Conclusion - The overall performance of SVV is expected to be weak in the near term, primarily due to challenges in Canada, which are likely to outweigh the benefits from the US market [12]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total net sales increased by 2% to $387 million in Q2 2024, with a constant currency increase of 2.8% [17] - Adjusted EBITDA margin was over 20% for the quarter, demonstrating the resilience of the financial model despite challenges [16] - GAAP net income for the quarter was $9.7 million, or $0.06 per diluted share, while adjusted net income was $23.7 million, or $0.14 per diluted share [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. net sales increased by 5.4% to $207 million, with comparable store sales up by 2.1%, driven by growth in both transactions and average basket [17] - Canadian net sales declined by 2.4% to $150 million, with comparable store sales down by 3.1%, impacted by declines in both transactions and average basket [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Canadian GDP per capita has declined, and the unemployment rate rose from 5.7% to 6.4% in the first half of the year, affecting consumer spending [5] - Canadian household debt is over 100% of GDP, with debt service costs exceeding 15% of household income, leading to reduced discretionary spending [5][6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to open 29 new stores in 2024, including 22 organic openings and 7 acquired locations, with a focus on U.S. expansion [10][25] - Off-site processing capabilities are being enhanced to support new store growth, with more than half of new stores expected to leverage off-site processing [12][13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in long-term growth despite current challenges in Canada, citing strong brand awareness and customer loyalty [8][9] - The company is lowering its full-year 2024 outlook for total net sales to a range of $1.53 billion to $1.56 billion, reflecting macroeconomic headwinds in Canada [24] Other Important Information - Donations grew by 6% year-over-year, contributing to strong supply levels for existing and new stores [11] - The company has taken steps to strengthen its balance sheet, including paying down debt and increasing its revolving line of credit [22][23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on U.S. store performance and growth - U.S. new stores are exceeding expectations, with strong performance and reliable forecasting supporting long-term growth plans [31][32] Question: Canadian market challenges and guidance adequacy - The current downturn in Canada is unique, with management confident that it is cyclical and will eventually improve [34] Question: Margin protection strategies in Canada - Despite challenges, the company maintained a 20% EBITDA margin, with investments in new stores and off-site processing impacting margins [39] Question: Pricing strategy and customer sensitivity - The company is actively monitoring its price-value relationship and testing aggressive pricing strategies to drive traffic [52][53] Question: Differences between Canadian and U.S. markets - The macroeconomic environment in Canada is currently more challenging, with higher household debt and lower thrift market maturity compared to the U.S. [54] Question: Long-term growth algorithm and expectations - The company anticipates high-single digit annual revenue growth driven primarily by new stores, with EBITDA margins expected to remain near 20% as growth investments mature [56][57]

Savers Value Village (SVV) reported $386.66 million in revenue for the quarter ended June 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 2%. EPS of $0.14 for the same period compares to $0.22 a year ago. The reported revenue represents a surprise of -1.66% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $393.2 million. With the consensus EPS estimate being $0.20, the EPS surprise was -30.00%. While investors scrutinize revenue and earnings changes year-over-year and how they compare with Wall Street expectations to d ...

Company Performance - Savers Value Village (SVV) reported quarterly earnings of $0.14 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.20 per share, and down from $0.22 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of -30% [1] - The company posted revenues of $386.66 million for the quarter ended June 2024, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.66%, and compared to year-ago revenues of $379.1 million [2] - Over the last four quarters, the company has not surpassed consensus EPS or revenue estimates [2] Stock Performance - Savers Value shares have lost about 44.3% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained 9% [3] - The current status of estimate revisions is unfavorable, leading to a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell) for the stock, indicating expected underperformance in the near future [6] Future Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $0.24 on revenues of $415.18 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $0.73 on revenues of $1.58 billion [7] - The outlook for the industry, specifically the Textile - Apparel sector, is in the bottom 25% of Zacks industries, which may materially impact the stock's performance [8]