Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted EBITDA of CAD 349 million, an increase of CAD 33 million compared to 2024, driven by favorable ancillary service pricing and asset optimization [12][14] - Free cash flow for the quarter was CAD 177 million, consistent with the same period last year, translating to CAD 0.60 per share [8][14] - Average fleet availability was reported at 91.6% [8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Hydro segment adjusted EBITDA increased to CAD 126 million from CAD 83 million in the previous year, attributed to higher intercompany sales and emissions credits [12] - Wind and solar segment adjusted EBITDA remained stable at CAD 89 million, with higher environmental revenue offset by lower pricing from Oklahoma assets [12] - Gas segment adjusted EBITDA decreased to CAD 128 million from CAD 142 million, primarily due to lower realized power prices and higher carbon costs [12] - Energy Transition segment adjusted EBITDA rose to CAD 19 million, a CAD 17 million increase year-over-year [12] - Energy Marketing adjusted EBITDA decreased by CAD 13 million to CAD 26 million due to subdued market volatility [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average spot price in Alberta for the second quarter was CAD 40 per megawatt hour, down from CAD 45 per megawatt hour in 2024 [14] - The company realized an average price of CAD 111 per megawatt hour produced, benefiting from hedging strategies [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on delivering adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow within 2025 guidance ranges, improving safety performance, and maximizing the value of legacy thermal energy campuses [17][19] - There is a strong emphasis on pursuing strategic M&A opportunities and maintaining financial strength through credit facility extensions [18][19] - The company aims to repurpose legacy thermal sites to meet the growing demand for reliable generation [19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in meeting 2025 guidance and highlighted the positive impact of Alberta's data center strategy on future investments [10][19] - The company remains committed to achieving its 2026 CO2 emissions reduction target and sees significant value in its legacy thermal sites [19] Other Important Information - The company successfully recontracted its wind facilities in Ontario, extending contract dates to 2031 and 2034 [9] - The Alberta government is supportive of developing a data center industry while ensuring an affordable and reliable electricity system [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Data center discussions and MOU execution - Management indicated that there are no significant impediments to finalizing the MOU, but it requires time to finalize terms and work with customers [23][25] Question: Midlife natural gas M&A focus - Management confirmed that there is an increasing focus on natural gas opportunities, particularly in core markets like the Pacific Northwest and Desert Southwest [26][27] Question: Phase one timeline and Alberta's capacity for data centers - Management noted that while the timeline for MOU has evolved, they remain confident in Alberta's ability to support gigawatt-scale data centers [34][36] Question: Carbon credit sales and their relevance - Management emphasized the value of their environmental attribute portfolio and its importance in maintaining competitiveness and supporting data center discussions [58][59]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - TransAlta reported adjusted EBITDA of CAD 349 million for Q2 2025, an increase of CAD 33 million compared to the same period in 2024, driven by favorable ancillary service pricing and asset optimization [11][12] - Free cash flow for the quarter was CAD 177 million, consistent with the same period last year [13] - Average fleet availability was 91.6% [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Hydro segment adjusted EBITDA increased to CAD 126 million from CAD 83 million year-over-year, attributed to higher intercompany sales and emissions credits [11] - Wind and solar segment adjusted EBITDA remained stable at CAD 89 million, impacted by lower tax attributes revenue from Oklahoma assets [12] - Gas segment adjusted EBITDA decreased to CAD 128 million from CAD 142 million, primarily due to lower realized power prices and higher carbon and natural gas pricing [12] - Energy Transition segment adjusted EBITDA rose to CAD 19 million, a CAD 17 million increase year-over-year [12] - Energy Marketing adjusted EBITDA decreased by CAD 13 million to CAD 26 million due to subdued market volatility [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Alberta's spot price averaged CAD 40 per megawatt hour in Q2 2025, down from CAD 45 per megawatt hour in 2024 [13] - The hydro fleet achieved an average realized merchant price of CAD 82 per megawatt hour, a 105% premium to the average spot price [14] - The gas fleet realized a 55% premium to the average spot price [14] - Ancillary service pricing settled at CAD 42 per megawatt hour, a 5% premium to the average spot price [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maximize the value of its legacy thermal energy campuses and capture opportunities in securing data center customers [17] - TransAlta is focused on maintaining financial strength and flexibility while pursuing strategic M&A opportunities [18] - The company is committed to achieving its 2026 CO2 emissions reduction target and enhancing its diversified portfolio [19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in meeting 2025 guidance ranges and highlighted the positive momentum in securing data center opportunities in Alberta [11][17] - The company is optimistic about the development of a data center industry in Alberta, which is expected to rebalance the current oversupply of generation [10][36] - Management acknowledged the importance of clarity from the ISO regarding future phases of data center development [52] Other Important Information - TransAlta successfully recontracted its Melancon and Wolf Island wind facilities, extending contract dates to 2031 and 2034 respectively [6][7] - The company is actively engaged in commercial negotiations for its Centralia site and expects to share detailed development plans soon [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the gating factors to successfully execute an MOU for data centers? - Management indicated that there are no significant impediments, but finalizing terms takes time [22][24] Question: How is the organization viewing midlife natural gas M&A opportunities? - Management confirmed that it is an increasing focus, with several opportunities being explored in core markets [26][27] Question: Has the timeline for securing an MOU changed since the Q1 call? - Management acknowledged that while there has been progress, the timeline has evolved due to clarity from the ISO [32][34] Question: Can Alberta deliver power to gigawatt scale data centers? - Management expressed confidence in Alberta's ability to support a vibrant data center industry, which would benefit their diverse fleet [36] Question: How is the carbon credit portfolio being managed? - Management emphasized the value of their environmental attributes and their role in ensuring competitiveness and meeting customer needs [56]

Second Quarter Results Kananaskis, Alberta AUGUST 1, 2025 The forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are based on many assumptions including, but not limited to, the following: no significant changes to applicable laws and regulations; no unexpected delays in obtaining required regulatory approvals; no material adverse impacts to investment and credit markets; no significant changes to power price and hedging assumptions; no significant changes to gas commodity price assumptions and trans ...

Core Insights - TransAlta Corporation reported strong operational performance in Q2 2025, highlighting the effectiveness of its diversified fleet and hedging strategies, which resulted in realized prices above spot prices [2][4] - The company is optimistic about achieving its 2025 outlook despite challenges in the Alberta price environment [2] Financial Performance - Q2 2025 operational availability was 91.6%, up from 90.8% in Q2 2024 [5][6] - Production increased to 4,813 GWh in Q2 2025 from 4,781 GWh in Q2 2024 [5] - Revenues for Q2 2025 were $433 million, down from $582 million in Q2 2024 [5] - Adjusted EBITDA rose to $349 million in Q2 2025 from $316 million in Q2 2024 [5][6] - Adjusted earnings before income taxes increased to $122 million in Q2 2025 from $112 million in Q2 2024 [5] - Net loss attributable to common shareholders was $112 million in Q2 2025, compared to net earnings of $56 million in Q2 2024 [6] Segment Performance - Hydro segment revenues increased to $126 million in Q2 2025 from $83 million in Q2 2024 [8] - Wind and Solar segment revenues were stable at $89 million in Q2 2025 compared to $88 million in Q2 2024 [8] - Gas segment revenues decreased to $128 million in Q2 2025 from $142 million in Q2 2024 [8] - Energy Transition segment revenues significantly increased to $19 million in Q2 2025 from $2 million in Q2 2024 [8] - Energy Marketing segment revenues decreased to $26 million in Q2 2025 from $39 million in Q2 2024 [8] Key Business Developments - The company extended its committed credit facilities totaling $2.1 billion, with maturity dates extended to June 30, 2029, for the syndicated credit facility [9] - TransAlta signed an agreement for the divestiture of the 48 MW Poplar Hill asset as part of a consent agreement with the federal Competition Bureau [10] - The company successfully recontracted its Ontario wind facilities, extending contract dates until 2031 and 2034 [11] Shareholder Returns - TransAlta announced a Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB) to repurchase up to 14 million common shares [13] - During the first half of 2025, the company purchased and canceled 1,932,800 common shares at an average price of $12.42 per share [14]

Investors might want to bet on TransAlta (TAC) , as it has been recently upgraded to a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). This upgrade is essentially a reflection of an upward trend in earnings estimates -- one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices. The Zacks rating relies solely on a company's changing earnings picture. It tracks EPS estimates for the current and following years from the sell-side analysts covering the stock through a consensus measure -- the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The power of a changin ...

Group 1 - TransAlta Corporation (TAC) has reached a key level of support, indicated by a "golden cross" where its 50-day simple moving average has crossed above its 200-day simple moving average [1][2] - A golden cross is a bullish technical chart pattern that suggests a potential breakout, typically formed when a short-term moving average surpasses a long-term moving average [2] - The successful golden cross event consists of three stages: a price bottom, the crossover of moving averages, and the maintenance of upward momentum [3] Group 2 - Over the past four weeks, TAC's stock has increased by 13.4%, and it currently holds a 2 (Buy) rating on the Zacks Rank, indicating potential for further breakout [4] - The positive earnings outlook for TAC is supported by no downward revisions in earnings estimates over the past two months, with one revision higher and an increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate [4] - Investors are encouraged to monitor TAC for potential gains due to its key technical level and favorable earnings estimate revisions [6]

Core Viewpoint - Momentum investing focuses on following a stock's recent price trends, aiming to buy high and sell higher, with the expectation that established trends will continue [1] Group 1: Company Overview - TransAlta (TAC) currently holds a Momentum Style Score of B, indicating a favorable momentum characteristic [2] - The company has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), suggesting strong potential for outperformance in the market [3] Group 2: Performance Metrics - Over the past week, TAC shares have increased by 8.33%, significantly outperforming the Zacks Utility - Electric Power industry, which rose by only 0.22% [5] - In a longer timeframe, TAC's shares have appreciated by 14.57% over the past month, compared to the industry's 2.42% [5] - Over the last quarter, TAC shares have surged by 35.58%, and over the past year, they have gained 67.17%, while the S&P 500 has only increased by 16.04% and 19.71%, respectively [6] Group 3: Trading Volume - TAC's average 20-day trading volume is 985,375 shares, which serves as a bullish indicator when combined with rising stock prices [7] Group 4: Earnings Outlook - In the past two months, one earnings estimate for TAC has increased, while none have decreased, raising the consensus estimate from $0.35 to $0.39 [9] - For the next fiscal year, one estimate has also moved upwards with no downward revisions during the same period [9] Group 5: Conclusion - Considering all the discussed elements, TAC is positioned as a 2 (Buy) stock with a Momentum Score of B, making it a strong candidate for near-term investment [11]

Core Viewpoint - TransAlta (TAC) is positioned as a leader in clean electricity, focusing on sustainable energy projects and customer-centered power solutions, making it a solid investment option in the utility sector [1] Growth Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings per share (EPS) remains unchanged at 35 cents, while the estimate for 2026 EPS has increased by 12% to 28 cents [2] Solvency - The times interest earned (TIE) ratio at the end of Q1 2025 is 1.3, indicating that TransAlta is well-positioned to meet its interest obligations [3] Dividend History - TransAlta has raised dividends 12 times in the past five years, with a current dividend yield of 1.65%, surpassing the Zacks S&P 500 Composite's average of 1.19% [4] Share Repurchase Program - The company has repurchased 1.9 million shares year to date at an average cost of $12.42 per share as part of its capital allocation strategy to enhance shareholder value [5] Growth Strategy - TransAlta aims to develop 1.75 gigawatts (GW) of incremental renewables capacity by the end of 2028, with a targeted investment of $3.5 billion, and plans to expand its development pipeline to 10 GW by 2028 [6] Stock Price Performance - Over the past three months, TransAlta's shares have increased by 32.5%, outperforming the industry's decline of 0.6% [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - TransAlta Corporation is set to release its second quarter 2025 results on August 1, 2025, with a conference call scheduled for the same day to discuss the results with investors and analysts [1][2]. Group 1: Conference Call Details - The conference call will begin at 9:00 a.m. Mountain Time (11:00 a.m. ET) [1]. - Participants can access the call via a personalized PIN or receive an automated call directly to their phone after registering [2]. - A replay of the call will be available on TransAlta's website following the event [3]. Group 2: Company Overview - TransAlta operates a diverse fleet of electrical power generation assets across Canada, the U.S., and Australia, focusing on long-term shareholder value [4]. - The company is one of Canada's largest producers of wind power and the largest producer of thermal generation and hydro-electric power in Alberta [4]. - TransAlta has achieved a 70% reduction in GHG emissions, equating to 22.7 million tonnes CO2e since 2015, and has received an upgraded MSCI ESG rating of AA [4].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the author's extensive experience in investment banking, particularly in equity research, corporate finance, and M&A within the Canadian electric utilities and infrastructure sectors [1] Group 1: Experience and Expertise - The author has over twenty years of experience in sell-side equity research, corporate and project finance, M&A, and valuations [1] - A decade was spent as an equity research analyst at global banks, including UniCredit Securities and HSBC Global Markets, achieving top ratings in surveys [1] - Prior to investment banking, the author worked for ten years in a Canadian corporate environment focusing on power projects and M&A [1] Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The author believes in actionable investment ideas and the importance of compelling narratives and clear arguments [1] - There is a focus on sharing insights and stories to contribute to a smarter and richer world [1]