Market Overview - Wall Street is expected to have an eventful day with numerous earnings reports, economic data, and a monetary policy statement from the Fed [1] - Pre-market trading shows a cautious sentiment with the Dow down 90 points, S&P 500 down 16 points, and Nasdaq down 3 points [1] Trade Balance - The U.S. trade deficit for December reached -$122.1 billion, marking the lowest figure for 2024 [2] - Imports increased by +3.9% in December, while exports decreased by -4.5% [2] - Industrial supplies led imports with an increase of +18.9%, contributing to total imports of $289.6 billion [3] - Consumer goods exports saw a decline of -8.5%, increasing the loss in outgoing goods by $7.8 billion to a total of $167.5 billion [3] Quarterly Earnings - T-Mobile U.S. (TMUS) reported Q4 earnings of $2.57 per share on revenues of $21.87 billion, surpassing expectations [4] - TMUS raised its Q1 earnings guidance to a record $9.66 per share, resulting in a +7% increase in stock price [4] - VF Corp. (VFC) reported fiscal Q3 earnings of 62 cents per share, exceeding the expected 34 cents, with revenues of $2.83 billion [5] - VFC announced a cash dividend of 9 cents per share, and despite negative earnings guidance for fiscal Q4, shares rose by +4.7% in pre-market trading [5] Upcoming Events - The Fed is expected to maintain interest rates at +4.25-4.50%, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell addressing economic conditions and potential tariff impacts [6] - A series of important earnings reports are anticipated after market close, including from Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), and Tesla (TSLA) [7]

Core Insights - T-Mobile, US, Inc. (TMUS) reported strong fourth-quarter 2024 results, with both net income and revenues exceeding Zacks Consensus Estimates, driven by significant postpaid customer growth [1][3][4] Financial Performance - Net income for Q4 2024 was $2.98 billion or $2.57 per share, a 48% increase from $2.01 billion or $1.67 per share in Q4 2023, surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.17 [3] - Total revenues for Q4 2024 reached $21.87 billion, up from $20.47 billion in the same quarter last year, beating the consensus estimate of $21.17 billion [4] - For the full year 2024, TMUS reported net income of $11.3 billion or $9.66 per share, compared to $8.4 billion or $6.93 per share in 2023 [3] Revenue Segments - Total service revenues were $16.92 billion in Q4 2024, up from $16.04 billion year-over-year, driven by strong demand for postpaid services [5] - Postpaid services generated $13.5 billion in revenues, reflecting an 8.3% year-over-year increase [5] - Equipment revenues increased to $4.69 billion from $4.17 billion in the prior year, attributed to a higher average revenue per device sold [8] Customer Growth - T-Mobile added 1.9 million postpaid net customers and 263,000 postpaid net accounts in Q4 2024, marking the best performance in the industry [6] - Postpaid phone net customer additions were 903,000, with a churn rate of 0.92% [6] - High-speed Internet net customer additions totaled 428,000 during the quarter [6] Cash Flow and Liquidity - Cash generated from operating activities in Q4 2024 was $5.54 billion, up from $4.85 billion in the prior year [11] - Adjusted free cash flow was $4.08 billion, down from $4.3 billion year-over-year [11] - As of December 31, 2024, TMUS had $5.4 billion in cash and cash equivalents and $72.7 billion in long-term debt [12] Future Outlook - For 2025, TMUS anticipates postpaid net customer additions between 5.5 million and 6 million [13] - Core adjusted EBITDA is projected to be between $33.1 billion and $33.6 billion [13] - The company expects cash from operating activities to be in the range of $26.8 billion to $27.5 billion [13]

Core Insights - T-Mobile reported $21.87 billion in revenue for Q4 2024, a year-over-year increase of 6.8% and a surprise of +3.30% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $21.17 billion [1] - The EPS for the same period was $2.57, compared to $1.67 a year ago, with an EPS surprise of +18.43% over the consensus estimate of $2.17 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Prepaid churn was reported at 2.9%, slightly above the six-analyst average estimate of 2.8% [4] - Postpaid phone churn matched the average estimate at 0.9% [4] - Total High-Speed Internet net customer additions were 428 thousand, exceeding the average estimate of 402.63 thousand [4] - Total postpaid customer net additions reached 1.93 million, surpassing the average estimate of 1.61 million [4] - Postpaid ARPU was $49.73, above the average estimate of $49.28 [4] - Prepaid ARPU was $35.49, slightly below the average estimate of $35.71 [4] - Total service revenues amounted to $16.93 billion, exceeding the average estimate of $16.71 billion, with a year-over-year change of +5.5% [4] - Equipment revenues were $4.70 billion, above the estimated $4.26 billion, representing a +12.6% change year-over-year [4] - Other revenues were reported at $245 million, slightly above the average estimate of $233.41 million, but showing a -6.1% change year-over-year [4] - Prepaid revenues reached $2.69 billion, compared to the average estimate of $2.68 billion, reflecting a +10.5% year-over-year change [4] - Wholesale and other service revenues were $738 million, exceeding the average estimate of $656.08 million, but showing a -35.2% year-over-year change [4] - Postpaid revenues were reported at $13.50 billion, above the average estimate of $13.37 billion, with an +8.3% change year-over-year [4]

Core Insights - T-Mobile reported quarterly earnings of $2.57 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.17 per share, and showing an increase from $1.67 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of 18.43% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $21.87 billion for the quarter ended December 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.30% and up from $20.48 billion year-over-year [2] Earnings Performance - T-Mobile has surpassed consensus EPS estimates in all four of the last quarters [2] - The company has also exceeded consensus revenue estimates three times over the last four quarters [2] Stock Performance and Outlook - T-Mobile shares have increased by approximately 0.2% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained 3.2% [3] - The stock's immediate price movement will largely depend on management's commentary during the earnings call [3] Future Earnings Expectations - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $2.44, with expected revenues of $20.45 billion, and for the current fiscal year, the EPS estimate is $10.15 on revenues of $84.21 billion [7] Industry Context - The Wireless National industry, to which T-Mobile belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 26% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges for stock performance [8] - Empirical research suggests a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which could impact T-Mobile's stock performance [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2024, the company achieved over 8% growth in postpaid service revenue, more than double that of peers [16] - Core adjusted EBITDA grew by 10% in Q4 and 9% for the full year, leading the industry by a wide margin [16] - The company reported its highest ever diluted earnings per share and free cash flow of $17 billion, generating industry-leading cash flow conversion from service revenues of 26% [16][17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company led the industry in postpaid phone net additions with 903,000 in Q4, marking the third consecutive year of over 3 million postpaid phone net additions [10][9] - Postpaid average revenue per account (ARPA) grew at the highest rate in over 7 years, with over 60% of new customers selecting premium plans [10][16] - The business group also saw its best ever quarter in PhoneNet additions and the lowest total postpaid churn [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company captured its highest ever share of industry broadband net additions, leading the industry in broadband growth with 428,000 net additions in Q4 [14] - The company continues to deepen its market presence in both top 100 and smaller markets, gaining share in rural areas [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on delivering thoughtful, smart, and profitable growth, emphasizing sustainable long-term structural advantages [15] - The company plans to leverage its digital transformation to enhance customer experiences and drive growth [11] - The appointment of a new COO is expected to enhance operational focus and long-term strategy execution [18][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in starting 2025 with the highest ever beginning of the year guidance for expected postpaid net additions [17] - The company anticipates approximately 5% growth in service revenue for 2025, up from the previously indicated 4% [22] - Management highlighted the importance of network investments and transformation for future growth [17][22] Other Important Information - The company activated STARLINK satellite capabilities during California wildfires, demonstrating its commitment to customer connectivity [7] - The acquisition of Vistar is seen as a transformative opportunity in the digital out-of-home advertising space, aiming to enhance measurability and impact [48][51] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance on service revenue growth - Management clarified that the 5% service revenue growth guidance is based on expected growth in postpaid customers and ARPA growth, despite anticipated declines in wholesale revenue [29][33] Question: Mix between ARPA growth and account growth - Management noted strong account growth in Q4, driven by existing customers opting for high-speed broadband, and emphasized ongoing ARPA growth across all product lines [41][43] Question: Broadband environment and pricing strategy - Management indicated that the growth rate of the broadband market is less critical than share-taking, and competitive pricing strategies are in place to attract price-sensitive customers [61] Question: Wholesale opportunities and pricing strategy - Management explained that wholesale opportunities are pursued based on the ability to reach audiences more effectively, with a focus on achieving attractive returns on network capacity [67][68] Question: Impact of acquisitions on EBITDA and free cash flow - Management stated that it is premature to provide aggregate EBITDA and free cash flow impacts from recent acquisitions, but all are expected to be value accretive in the long run [76][78] Question: Prepaid business stability and immigration impact - Management reported strong performance in the prepaid segment, with the lowest churn ever, and indicated that immigration trends have not significantly impacted the prepaid business [81][82] Question: Converged footprint and attach rates - Management noted that while competitors report high attach rates, the company has experienced similar benefits in areas where it offers both wireline and wireless services [92]

Core Insights - T-Mobile US reported strong fourth-quarter results for 2024, exceeding analyst expectations in net income and revenue [1][5] - The company achieved a net income of $2.98 billion, or $2.57 per share, on revenue of $21.87 billion, surpassing estimates of $2.63 billion in profits and $21.31 billion in revenue [1][5] Company Performance - T-Mobile's CEO highlighted the company's record low churn rate for postpaid phone subscribers and noted three consecutive years of over 3 million postpaid phone net additions [2][3] - The company added 903,000 postpaid phone subscribers and 428,000 net internet customers, both exceeding analyst expectations of 859,810 and 402,000, respectively [3] Future Outlook - For 2025, T-Mobile anticipates adding between 5.5 million to 6 million net new customers but refrained from providing a profit forecast due to unpredictable factors affecting net income [4] - T-Mobile's stock rose over 6% in premarket trading and has increased by 35% over the past year [5]

Financial Performance - Net income for Q4 2024 was $3.0 billion, with diluted earnings per share at $2.57, compared to $2.0 billion and $1.67 in Q4 2023[39] - Net income for Q4 2024 was $2,981 million, compared to $2,014 million in Q4 2023, reflecting a 48% year-over-year increase[64] - Net income for Q4 2023 was $2,014 million, compared to $1,940 million in Q1 2023, with an expected increase to $2,981 million by Q4 2024[82] - Net income for Q4 2023 was $2,981 million, with a total net income of $8,317 million for the year ended December 31, 2023, representing a year-over-year increase of 11.5%[89] - Operating income for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $18,010 million, compared to $14,266 million in 2023, marking a 26% increase[64] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2023 reached $8,243 million, contributing to a total of $31,864 million for the year, reflecting a 8.3% increase compared to the previous year[89] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2023 was $7,224 million, reflecting a margin of 45.0%, with projections of $7,916 million and a margin of 46.8% for Q4 2024[82] - Core Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 is guided to be between $33.1 to $33.6 billion[57] - Adjusted Free Cash Flow for Q4 2023 was $4,084 million, with a total of $17,032 million for the year, marking a 25.5% increase year-over-year[93] - Adjusted Free Cash Flow guidance for FY 2025 is projected to be between $17,300 million and $18,000 million[94] Revenue Growth - Service revenues increased by 6% year-over-year, primarily driven by an 8% increase in postpaid service revenues[26] - Total revenues for Q4 2024 reached $21,872 million, an increase of 6.8% compared to $20,478 million in Q4 2023[64] - Postpaid revenues increased to $13,502 million in Q4 2024, up from $12,472 million in Q4 2023, representing an 8.2% growth[64] - Total service revenues for Q4 2023 were not explicitly stated but are implied to have increased, contributing to the improved net income and EBITDA figures[89] Customer Metrics - Total postpaid customers reached 104,118 thousand by the end of Q4 2024, up 6.5% from 98,052 thousand in Q4 2023[73] - Total postpaid customer additions for 2023 reached 5,650, while the guidance for 2024 is 6,066, indicating a growth of approximately 7.4%[76] - The total number of postpaid customer accounts increased from 28,813 in Q1 2023 to 30,894 by the end of 2024, reflecting a steady growth trajectory[79] - The total number of prepaid customers increased to 25,410 thousand by the end of Q4 2024, a growth of 17.5% from 21,648 thousand in Q4 2023[75] - Postpaid phone churn decreased by 4 basis points year-over-year, indicating improved customer retention[16] - Prepaid churn decreased from 2.86% in Q4 2023 to an expected 2.85% in Q4 2024, indicating improved customer retention in the prepaid segment[76] Debt and Cash Flow - Total debt, excluding tower obligations, at the end of Q4 2024 was $80.6 billion, with net debt at $75.2 billion[55] - Long-term debt increased to $72,700 million in 2024 from $69,903 million in 2023, indicating a 4% rise[62] - Net cash provided by operating activities for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $22,293 million, an increase of 20% from $18,559 million in 2023[68] - The company reported a net cash used in investing activities of $9,072 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $5,829 million in 2023, reflecting increased capital expenditures[68] - Cash purchases of property and equipment increased by 39% year-over-year, primarily due to planned timing of capital purchases[49] - Cash purchases of property and equipment, including capitalized interest, are expected to remain constant at $9,500 million for FY 2025[94] Stockholder Returns - The company returned a total of $31.4 billion to stockholders since initiating its stockholder return program in Q3 2022[56] - Total stockholder returns for 2023 amounted to $13,954 million, with projections of $14,408 million for 2024[85] - The company repurchased common stock worth $4,687 million in Q4 2024, significantly higher than $560 million in Q3 2024[71] - The company repurchased a total of 32,963,940 shares in Q1 2023, with cumulative repurchases reaching 173,663,375 shares by the end of 2024[85] Operational Efficiency - The company noted that Core Adjusted EBITDA is used to monitor financial performance, excluding lease revenues from device financing programs[14] - T-Mobile's retained earnings increased significantly to $14,384 million in 2024 from $7,347 million in 2023, showing a substantial growth in profitability[62] - Core Adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 49.2% in Q4 2023, up from 46.0% in Q4 2022, indicating enhanced operational efficiency[89] - The company continues to focus on operational efficiencies and strategic cost management, as evidenced by the reduction in merger-related costs and improved margins[89] Future Outlook - Postpaid net customer additions for 2025 are projected to be between 5.5 to 6.0 million[57] - Net cash provided by operating activities for FY 2025 is estimated to be between $26,800 million and $27,500 million[94] - The company faces risks including competition, market changes, and geopolitical instability that could impact future performance[102] - T-Mobile operates a transformative nationwide 5G network, enhancing connectivity and service quality for customers[103] Legal and Compliance - Legal-related recoveries from litigation associated with the August 2021 cyberattack were noted, contributing positively to the financial results[91] - The company is focused on maintaining effective internal control over financial reporting and compliance with regulatory frameworks[102]

Core Insights - Motti Sapir is an economist and financial analyst with over 15 years of experience in financial markets, focusing on market trends and data analysis [1] - He aims to simplify complex financial concepts for investors, emphasizing actionable insights and clear communication [1] - Sapir writes for Seeking Alpha, providing insights on stocks, bonds, economic trends, and specific sectors to help investors make informed decisions [1] Company and Industry Analysis - The article highlights the importance of understanding financial data and market trends to uncover potential investment opportunities [1] - Motti Sapir's approach includes creating clear visuals to make financial data more accessible and understandable for investors [1] - The focus on practical investment strategies indicates a trend towards more transparent and straightforward investment advice in the financial industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - T-Mobile is expected to report fourth-quarter 2024 results on January 29, with anticipated revenue growth driven by increased demand for postpaid services and innovative product launches [1][2][10] Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - Total service revenues are estimated at $16.75 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 4.4% [9] - Equipment revenues are projected at $4.05 billion, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 2.8% [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total revenues stands at $21.17 billion, an increase from $20.48 billion reported in the same quarter last year [10] - Adjusted earnings per share are expected to be $2.17, up from $1.67 reported a year ago [10] Group 2: Product Innovations and Market Strategy - T-Mobile launched three new 5G Internet plans aimed at home and small business customers, featuring price locks and no equipment charges [3] - The introduction of the 5G On Demand service allows for rapid establishment of 5G connectivity, supporting high bandwidth applications [4] - High-profile events have utilized T-Mobile's products to enhance video transmission and fan experiences, likely contributing to revenue growth [5][6] Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Challenges - The U.S. wireless market is experiencing intensified competition, which is impacting T-Mobile's margins [7] - T-Mobile is trading at a premium valuation compared to the industry, raising concerns for investors [7] Group 4: Strategic Collaborations - T-Mobile has initiated a beta program for direct-to-cell satellite service in collaboration with Starlink, initially supporting text messaging for postpaid voice customers [8]

Wall Street expects a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when T-Mobile (TMUS) reports results for the quarter ended December 2024. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.The earnings report, which is expected to be released on January 29, 2025, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than exp ...