Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2025, net sales increased by 3.3% to $3.9 billion, with comparable store sales rising by 0.3% driven by modest growth in average ticket [10][12] - Diluted EPS for Q4 was $0.43, reflecting modest sales growth, elevated promotional activity, and continued investment in strategic initiatives [10][12] - For the full year 2025, net sales rose by 4.3% to $15.5 billion, with diluted EPS at $2.06 [12][13] - Gross margin for Q4 declined approximately 10 basis points year-over-year, while full-year gross margin expanded by 16 basis points [20][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consumable, Usable, and Edible categories showed low- to mid-single-digit comparable growth, led by livestock, equine, and poultry supplies [11] - Big-ticket categories, excluding emergency response, experienced a decline in performance, contributing to high single-digit declines [11][12] - Digital business delivered high single-digit growth for the year, reflecting improvements in personalization and conversion [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Customer engagement remained healthy, with identified customer counts increasing by approximately 2% [11] - The South Atlantic region saw mid-single-digit declines, primarily due to the absence of storm activity compared to the previous year [10][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on executing its "Life Out Here 2030" strategy, emphasizing new store growth, digital capabilities, and supply chain improvements [15][37] - Plans for 2026 include opening 100 new stores and expanding direct sales and final mile delivery capabilities [25][36] - The company aims to maintain a disciplined approach to capital allocation while investing in growth initiatives [26][37] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged a shift in consumer spending, with essential categories remaining resilient while discretionary demand moderated [8][10] - The broader economic environment remains uncertain, with mixed signals regarding consumer sentiment and spending [17] - For 2026, the company expects total sales growth in the range of 4%-6% and comp sales growth of 1%-3% [22][23] Other Important Information - The company opened 99 new stores in 2025 and plans to continue this trend in 2026 [14][15] - The digital business is expected to scale further, with ongoing investments in AI to improve forecasting and inventory flow [14][36] Q&A Session Summary Question: Gross margin expectations for 2026 - Management expects gross margin expansion in 2026, particularly in the second half, but does not anticipate declines in the first half [42] Question: Trends in first quarter sales - Management indicated that the first quarter is tracking above plan, with optimism due to tax refunds and seasonal demand [44][47] Question: Discretionary spending weakness - Management believes the weakness in discretionary spending was transitory and specific to Q4, with expectations for improvement in 2026 [51][53] Question: Tariff costs and pricing management - Management anticipates similar tariff impacts in 2026 as in the second half of 2025, with effective pricing management to offset costs [56][57] Question: Conditions for restoring comp growth - Management remains committed to returning to a 3%-5% comp sales growth trajectory, supported by strategic investments and operational improvements [60][62] Question: Direct sales model profitability - The direct sales initiative is showing strong momentum, with plans to double the sales specialist count and target $50 million in sales for 2026 [64][66]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2025, net sales increased by 3.3% to $3.9 billion, with comparable store sales rising by 0.3% driven by modest growth in average ticket [10][12] - Full year 2025 net sales grew by 4.3% to $15.5 billion, with diluted earnings per share at $2.06 [12][20] - Fourth quarter diluted EPS was $0.43, reflecting modest sales growth and elevated promotional activity [10][20] - Gross margin for Q4 declined approximately 10 basis points year-over-year, while full year gross margin expanded by 16 basis points [19][20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consumable, Usable, and Edible categories delivered low- to mid-single-digit comparable growth, led by livestock, equine, and poultry supplies [11][12] - Big-ticket categories, excluding emergency response, experienced a decline in performance, contributing to high single-digit declines [11][12] - Digital business showed high single-digit growth for the year, reflecting improvements in personalization and conversion [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Customer engagement remained healthy, with identified customer counts increasing approximately 2% [11] - The South Atlantic region saw mid-single-digit declines, primarily due to the absence of storm activity compared to the previous year [10][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on executing its "Life Out Here 2030" strategy, emphasizing new store growth and enhancing customer service [12][14] - Plans for 2026 include opening 100 new stores and expanding distribution capabilities, including a new distribution center in Idaho [25][38] - The company aims to strengthen its core business while scaling new initiatives like direct sales and final mile delivery [35][38] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged a shift in consumer spending, with essential categories remaining resilient while discretionary demand moderated [7][17] - The broader economic environment remains uncertain, with mixed signals regarding consumer sentiment and spending [17][24] - For 2026, the company expects total sales growth in the range of 4%-6% and comp sales growth of 1%-3% [22][24] Other Important Information - The company opened 99 new stores in 2025, with strong early productivity performance [13][14] - Membership in the Neighbors Club represents over 80% of sales, indicating strong customer loyalty [12] - The company is investing in AI to improve forecasting, inventory flow, and team member productivity [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for gross margin in 2026 - Management expects gross margin expansion in the second half of 2026 but does not anticipate declines in the first half [42] Question: Trends in first quarter sales - Management indicated that the first quarter is tracking above plan, with optimism due to potential tax refunds and seasonal demand [44][48] Question: Discretionary spending weakness - Management believes the weakness in discretionary spending was transitory and specific to Q4, with expectations for improvement in 2026 [51][53] Question: Tariff costs and pricing management - Management anticipates similar tariff impacts in 2026 as seen in the second half of 2025, with effective cost management strategies in place [56][57] Question: Conditions for restoring comp growth - Management remains committed to achieving 3%-5% comp sales growth over time, supported by strategic investments and operational improvements [60][62] Question: Direct sales model profitability - Management is pleased with the performance of the direct sales model and plans to double the sales specialist count, targeting $50 million in sales for 2026 [65][67] Question: Inflation and commodity outlook - Management expects modest inflation in the 1%-2% range for 2026, with ongoing monitoring of commodity prices [71][74] Question: Garden center initiative updates - Management is committed to expanding garden centers and has seen strong performance in live goods, with plans for over 1,000 stores involved in this initiative [76][78] Question: Sale-leaseback benefits - Management indicated that sale-leaseback benefits will be flat year-over-year, with a focus on their new real estate model providing significant savings [79][81]

SUPPLEMENTAL FINANCIAL PRESENTATION January 29, 2026 Q4 2025 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS SAFE HARBOR The forward -looking statements included in this presentation are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. All statements other than statements of historical facts, which address activities, events, or developments that we expect or anticipate will or may occur in the future, including statements regarding market share gains, positive customer trends, new s ...

分组1 - Tractor Supply (TSCO) reported quarterly earnings of $0.43 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.46 per share, and showing a slight decrease from $0.44 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of -7.37% [1] - The company posted revenues of $3.9 billion for the quarter ended December 2025, which was 2.74% below the Zacks Consensus Estimate, but an increase from $3.77 billion year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Tractor Supply has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times and topped consensus revenue estimates two times [2] 分组2 - The stock has gained approximately 10.3% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 1.9% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.37 on revenues of $3.69 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $2.32 on revenues of $16.66 billion [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank for Retail - Miscellaneous is currently in the top 25% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook for the industry [8]

Core Viewpoint - Tractor Supply Co. has provided its financial guidance for fiscal year 2026, projecting earnings per share and net sales growth, alongside plans for store expansion and capital investments [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Guidance - The company projects earnings in the range of $2.13 to $2.23 per share for fiscal 2026 [1]. - Net sales growth is expected to be between 4 to 6 percent, with comparable store sales growth anticipated at 1 to 3 percent [1]. Group 2: Analyst Expectations - Analysts expect the company to report earnings of $2.31 per share, with revenue growth of 6.29 percent, reaching approximately $16.60 billion for the year [2]. Group 3: Capital Plans - The company plans to open around 100 new Tractor Supply stores in 2026 [2]. - Ongoing initiatives include Project Fusion remodels, garden center transformations, and the completion of its 11th distribution center [2]. - Continued investments will be made in both store and digital platforms [2]. Group 4: Market Performance - In pre-market trading, Tractor Supply Co. shares are priced at $52.00, reflecting a decrease of $3.14 or 5.69 percent [3].

Financial Performance - Fourth quarter net sales increased by 3.3% to $3.90 billion from $3.77 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024, driven by new store openings and growth in comparable store sales [4]. - Comparable store sales rose by 0.3%, compared to an increase of 0.6% in the prior year's fourth quarter, reflecting comparable average ticket growth of 0.3% [4]. - Gross profit for the fourth quarter increased by 3.0% to $1.37 billion, with a gross margin rate of 35.1% compared to 35.2% in the prior year's fourth quarter [5]. - Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses increased by 6.0% to $1.07 billion, representing 27.5% of net sales, up from 26.8% in the fourth quarter of 2024 [6]. - Operating income decreased by 6.5% to $297.7 million from $318.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2024 [7]. - Net income decreased by 3.8% to $227.4 million, with diluted EPS of $0.43, down from $0.44 in the fourth quarter of 2024 [8]. - Fiscal year 2025 net sales increased by 4.3% to $15.52 billion, with comparable store sales growth of 1.2% [10]. - Net income for the fiscal twelve months ended December 27, 2025, was $1,096,087, a slight decrease from $1,101,240 for the same period in 2024 [27]. - Comparable store sales increased by 1.2% for the fiscal twelve months ended December 27, 2025, compared to a 0.2% increase in the previous year [33]. Store Expansion and Capital Expenditures - The company plans to open approximately 100 new Tractor Supply stores in fiscal year 2026, continuing Project Fusion remodels and garden center transformations [16]. - The company opened 99 new stores during the fiscal twelve months ended December 27, 2025, compared to 80 new stores in the previous year, marking a growth of 23.75% [33]. - Capital expenditures for new and relocated stores totaled $376.0 million for the fiscal twelve months ended December 27, 2025, compared to $241.2 million in 2024, representing a 55.9% increase [36]. Shareholder Returns and Cash Flow - The company returned a total of $848.5 million of capital to shareholders in fiscal 2025 through share repurchases and dividends [13]. - Cash flows from operating activities for the fiscal twelve months ended December 27, 2025, were $1,635,258, an increase from $1,420,835 in the prior year [31]. - The company repurchased shares at a cost of $360,991, down from $566,383 in the prior year, indicating a reduction of approximately 36.3% [33]. Assets and Liabilities - Total assets increased to $10,933,679 as of December 27, 2025, compared to $9,805,485 as of December 28, 2024, reflecting a growth of approximately 11.5% [29]. - Total liabilities increased to $8,352,386 as of December 27, 2025, from $7,535,151 as of December 28, 2024, reflecting a growth of approximately 10.9% [29]. Inventory and Transaction Value - The average inventory per store increased to $1,116.3 thousand for the fiscal twelve months ended December 27, 2025, compared to $1,063.7 thousand in the previous year [33]. - The average transaction value for the fiscal twelve months ended December 27, 2025, was $60.00, a slight decrease from $60.20 in the previous year [33]. Future Guidance - Fiscal year 2026 guidance includes net sales growth of 4% to 6% and diluted EPS of $2.13 to $2.23 [16].

Core Insights - The article highlights that unexpected volume increases for Tractor Supply, Home Depot, and Lowe's are anticipated due to frozen pipes and necessary roof repairs [1] Company Analysis - Tractor Supply is expected to benefit from increased demand for products related to home repairs caused by weather-related issues [1] - Home Depot is likely to see a surge in sales as homeowners address damage from frozen pipes and undertake roof repairs [1] - Lowe's is also projected to experience higher sales volumes as consumers seek to fix weather-related damages [1]

Core Insights - Tractor Supply (TSCO) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.47 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 6.8% [1] - Anticipated revenues for the quarter are projected to be $4.01 billion, which represents a 6.2% increase compared to the same quarter last year [1] Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.1% lower over the last 30 days, indicating a reevaluation by analysts [2] - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions and have shown a strong correlation with short-term stock performance [3] Key Metrics Projections - Analysts estimate that the 'Number of stores - Petsense' will reach 209, up from 206 year-over-year [5] - The total 'Number of stores' is projected to be 2,596, compared to 2,502 in the previous year [5] - The 'Number of stores - Tractor Supply' is expected to reach 2,387, an increase from 2,296 year-over-year [5] Sales and Footage Estimates - The consensus for 'Sales per selling square foot' is estimated at $98.26, up from $96.50 year-over-year [6] - Analysts project 'Total Selling Square Footage' to be 41 million square feet, compared to 39 million square feet last year [6] New Store Openings - The estimated 'New stores opened - Tractor Supply' is projected to be 21, down from 26 in the same quarter last year [7] - For 'New stores opened - Petsense', the estimate is 3, compared to 4 year-over-year [7] Stock Performance - Tractor Supply shares have increased by 9.4% in the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which saw a 0.4% increase [7] - TSCO holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating it is expected to closely follow overall market performance in the near term [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the author's investment strategy, focusing on medium-term investing in growth stories and identifying catalysts for value unlocking [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The author emphasizes a medium-term investment approach, targeting ideas with catalysts that can drive upside potential or short selling in the presence of downside catalysts [1]. - The author prefers investing in growth stories that are available at reasonable prices, indicating a focus on value [1]. Group 2: Sector Preferences - The author identifies as a generalist but has a strong background in analyzing the industrial, consumer, and technology sectors, where higher conviction in investments is noted [1].

Core Viewpoint - Tractor Supply's fourth-quarter results may be softer than expected due to unfavorable weather conditions, but management's optimistic outlook for 2026 supports a bullish case for the company [1][2]. Group 1: Fourth Quarter Performance - The company reported $3.7 billion in net sales for the third quarter, reflecting a 7.2% year-over-year increase, with comparable store sales rising by 3.9% [3]. - Management provided a wide range for fourth-quarter comparable store sales growth, estimating an increase between 1% and 5% [3]. - The CEO indicated that cold weather significantly influences sales, with severe winter conditions typically benefiting the company's performance [4]. Group 2: Weather Impact - The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported unusually warm weather in October and November, with November being the fourth-warmest on record and December ranking as the fifth-warmest in 131 years [5]. - A mild winter could lead to weaker demand for cold-weather items, potentially impacting fourth-quarter results [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook for 2026 - Management expressed confidence in 2026, expecting comparable store sales growth to exceed the weaker levels anticipated for the first half of 2025, driven by transaction count growth and positive average ticket trends [7][8]. - The company plans to open approximately 100 new stores in 2026, an increase from about 90 in 2025, which is expected to enhance growth prospects [9]. Group 4: Investor Considerations - Investors should monitor management's commentary on 2026 during the fourth-quarter results announcement, particularly regarding expectations for revenue growth and comparable store sales acceleration [10]. - Despite potential softness in fourth-quarter results, if weather is identified as the primary factor, it may not indicate poor business performance [11].