Core Viewpoint - Utz Brands (UTZ) has shown a recent price increase and analysts suggest significant upside potential based on price targets and earnings estimates [1][9]. Price Targets - The mean price target for UTZ is $18.67, indicating a potential upside of 34.2% from the current price of $13.91 [1]. - Analysts have set short-term price targets ranging from a low of $16 to a high of $23, with a standard deviation of $2.29, suggesting a consensus among analysts [2]. - The lowest estimate indicates a 15% increase, while the highest suggests a 65.4% upside [2]. Earnings Estimates - Analysts have revised earnings estimates upward, indicating a positive trend that correlates with potential stock price increases [4][9]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has increased by 2.8% over the past month, with three estimates going higher and no negative revisions [10]. - UTZ holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimates [11]. Analyst Behavior - Analysts often set optimistic price targets influenced by business relationships, which can lead to inflated expectations [6]. - A low standard deviation in price targets indicates a high degree of agreement among analysts regarding the stock's price movement [7]. Investment Considerations - While price targets can provide insights, relying solely on them for investment decisions may lead to disappointing returns [8][12].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company anticipates category growth of approximately 0% to 1% for fiscal 2025, indicating a slightly better than flat performance [8] - The company delivered about $60 million in productivity in 2024 and aims for $150 million or more over the three-year period from 2024 to 2026 [26][30] - The company expects to achieve around 80 basis points of EBITDA margin expansion in 2025 [27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The non-branded side of the business experienced an 18% decline in the fourth quarter, but management does not expect another double-digit decline in 2025 [36][37] - The tortilla chips category faced challenges due to assortment decisions and is expected to improve as the company laps previous performance [21][23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has seen strong consumer reception for its tortilla chips, particularly in the border segment, despite competitive pressures [22] - The company is gaining distribution in expansion markets, with Power 4 brands performing well [48] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to hold its core market share while expanding in new markets through increased distribution and marketing support [8] - The company is focusing on supply chain optimization and automation to improve efficiency and reduce costs [32][35] - The company plans to continue investing in its portfolio and is open to potential acquisitions if they align with its strategic goals [74][75] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ability to navigate a sluggish category and increased competition by delivering value beyond price [10][12] - The company expects promotional intensity to normalize as the year progresses, with a focus on innovation and quality [61] Other Important Information - The company is actively working on price pack architecture to offer a range of products at different price points [41][42] - The company has not experienced changes in customer allocation for display activity, indicating continued support from retailers [66] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the category growth assumption for fiscal '25? - Management expects category growth to be around 0% to 1% for fiscal 2025, with a strategy to hold core market share and expand in new markets [8] Question: What gives confidence in building flexibility despite sluggish category data? - Management believes in delivering value beyond price and expects normalization in promotional activity as the year progresses [10][12] Question: Will there be a further breakout of branded salty versus non-branded non-salty? - Management confirmed they will provide historical components for net sales breakdown [18] Question: When will the dips and spreads weakness lap? - Management indicated that the lapping will begin in May and improve through the back half of the year [20] Question: What are the building blocks for expanding EBITDA margin? - Management highlighted productivity programs and capital investments as key drivers for margin expansion [26][30] Question: What is the outlook for the non-branded side of the business? - Management does not expect another double-digit decline in the non-branded segment moving forward [37] Question: Can you elaborate on price pack architecture adjustments? - Management discussed the introduction of bonus bags and a focus on various price points to enhance consumer value [41][42] Question: What are the expectations for distribution expansion? - Management expects continued growth in distribution, particularly in expansion markets, with investments in consumer awareness [49] Question: How does the company view channel dynamics, particularly in C-stores? - Management acknowledged challenges in the C-store channel but expects modest growth as the year progresses [55] Question: Are there any notable changes in promotional activity for 2025? - Management reported no changes in customer allocation for display activity and plans to increase promotional efforts in core and expansion markets [66]

Distribution Network - The Direct-Store-Delivery (DSD) network includes approximately 2,500 routes reaching over 81,500 retail stores in 2024[65] - Third-party distributors operate an additional approximately 500 DSD-style routes, reaching over 15,000 retail stores[66] Direct-to-Consumer Growth - Direct-to-consumer shipments have significantly grown since 2019, originating from orders via the company website and select third-party retailer sites[67] Employment and Workforce - As of December 29, 2024, the company employed approximately 3,000 full-time associates and 200 part-time associates[77] Plant Operations - The company has reduced its plant footprint by three plants in fiscal year 2023 and an additional five plants in the first quarter of fiscal year 2024[78] Commodity Pricing Impact - A 1% increase in the price of commodities used within products and packaging would result in a reduction of gross profit of approximately $6.0 million[276] Cost Structure Changes - The company has transitioned from a predominantly company-owned route sales professionals model to using independent operators, creating a more variable cost structure[65] Sustainability Initiatives - The company’s sustainability program is guided by frameworks such as SASB, TCFD, and the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals[79] Gender Diversity in Leadership - The company has seen an increase in gender diversity in senior leadership, with women in senior leadership rising from 16% in 2021 to 27% in 2023[73] Trademark Licensing Sales - Sales under trademark licensing agreements represent approximately 1% of the company's 2024 invoice sales[84] Interest Expense and Rates - The company incurred $21.0 million higher interest expense without interest rate swap agreements during the fiscal year ended December 29, 2024[277] - The weighted average interest rates were 5.1% and 6.7% as of December 29, 2024, and December 31, 2023, respectively[277] - A 1% increase in the SOFR rate would have resulted in an additional $2.0 million of interest expense during the fiscal year 2024 based on the unhedged portion of debt[277] Bad Debt Expense - The net bad debt expense was $0.7 million for the fiscal year ended December 29, 2024, compared to $1.2 million for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2023[278] - The reserve for potential future bad debt was $3.3 million as of December 29, 2024, up from $2.9 million as of December 31, 2023[278]

Core Insights - Utz Brands (UTZ) shares increased by 6% following the release of better-than-expected profits driven by higher sales of salty snack products [1] - The company reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.22, surpassing analyst expectations, while revenue decreased by 3% year-over-year to $341.0 million, falling short of forecasts [1][3] Sales Performance - Organic net sales for Branded Salty Snacks grew by 3%, supported by the firm's Power Four Brands [2] - In contrast, organic net sales for Non-Branded & Non-Salty Snacks declined by 18%, primarily due to reduced demand for Partner Brands and Dips & Salsas [2] Management Commentary - CEO Howard Friedman highlighted strong sales in salty snacks while managing low-margin partner brands and private label products [2] - The company anticipates a full-year adjusted EPS increase of 10% to 15% due to improved operating profit and lower interest expenses [2] Future Outlook - Utz expects organic net sales to rise by a low-single-digit percentage, driven by continued growth in Branded Salty Snacks, particularly the Power Four Brands, and a reduced decline in Non-Branded & Non-Salty Snacks [2][3] - Despite the recent share price increase, Utz Brands has experienced a nearly 25% decline in share value over the past year [2]

Core Viewpoint - Utz Brands reported quarterly earnings of $0.22 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.19 per share, and showing an increase from $0.16 per share a year ago, indicating a 15.79% earnings surprise [1][2] Financial Performance - The company posted revenues of $341.05 million for the quarter ended December 2024, which was 1.66% below the Zacks Consensus Estimate and a decrease from $352.1 million in the same quarter last year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Utz Brands has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times but has only topped revenue estimates once [2] Stock Performance - Utz Brands shares have declined approximately 14% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with a 4.5% gain in the S&P 500 [3] - The current Zacks Rank for Utz Brands is 4 (Sell), indicating expectations of underperformance in the near future [6] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.16 on revenues of $349.3 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $0.82 on revenues of $1.45 billion [7] - The trend of estimate revisions for Utz Brands has been unfavorable leading up to the earnings release [6] Industry Context - The Food - Miscellaneous industry, to which Utz Brands belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 28% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting potential challenges for stock performance [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which could impact investor sentiment [5]

Financial Performance - Fourth quarter net sales were $341.0 million, a decrease of 3.2% compared to $352.1 million in the prior year, impacted by the divestiture of R.W. Garcia® and Good Health® brands [8]. - Organic net sales were flat, with branded salty snacks increasing by 2.9%, while non-branded and non-salty snacks declined by 18.2% [8]. - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 7.5% to $53.1 million, representing 15.6% of net sales, driven by gross margin expansion [12]. - Adjusted net income rose by 41.5% to $32.4 million, with adjusted earnings per share increasing by 37.5% to $0.22 [11]. - For the fiscal year ended December 29, 2024, net sales were $1,409,281,000, a decrease of 2.0% from $1,438,237,000 in 2023 [42]. - The fiscal year 2024 gross profit increased to $494,777,000, up 8.4% from $456,486,000 in 2023 [42]. - Net income attributable to controlling interest for the fiscal year ended December 29, 2024, was $15,974,000, compared to a net loss of $24,937,000 in 2023 [42]. - Net income improved to $30,737 thousand for the fiscal year ended December 29, 2024, compared to a net loss of $40,032 thousand for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2023 [46]. - Reported net sales for the 52 weeks ended December 29, 2024, were $1,409.3 million, a decrease of 2.0% from $1,438.2 million in 2023 [47]. - Organic net sales for the 52 weeks ended December 29, 2024, increased by 1.3% to $1,411.3 million compared to $1,393.7 million in 2023 [47]. - Gross profit for the 52 weeks ended December 29, 2024, was $494.8 million, up from $456.5 million in 2023, reflecting a gross profit margin increase from 31.7% to 35.1% [50]. Liquidity and Debt - Total liquidity as of December 29, 2024, was $214.8 million, with net debt of $727.3 million and a net leverage ratio of 3.6x [14]. - Total current liabilities rose to $285,270 thousand as of December 29, 2024, compared to $230,686 thousand as of December 31, 2023, an increase of 23.6% [45]. - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period increased to $56,138 thousand from $52,023 thousand, marking an increase of 7.5% [46]. - Total Net Debt as of December 29, 2024, is $727.3 million, with a Gross Debt of $783.4 million [59]. - The Net Leverage Ratio stands at 3.6x based on a Normalized Adjusted EBITDA of $200.2 million [59][60]. - Cash and Cash Equivalents as of December 29, 2024, are $56.1 million, providing liquidity against total debt [59]. Expenses and Costs - Selling, distribution, and administrative expenses for the thirteen weeks ended December 29, 2024, totaled $111,711,000, an increase from $107,076,000 in 2023 [40]. - Adjusted Selling, Distribution, and Administrative Expense for the 13 weeks ended December 29, 2024, was $81.6 million, compared to $81.3 million for the same period in 2023, representing an increase of 0.4% [51]. - Total Depreciation and Amortization for the 52 weeks ended December 29, 2024, was $70.9 million, down from $79.5 million in the same period of 2023 [53]. - Acquisition, Divestiture, and Integration Costs for the fiscal year ended December 29, 2024, amounted to $20.9 million, compared to $9.7 million for the previous fiscal year [61]. - Business Transformation Initiatives incurred costs of $28.1 million for the fiscal year ended December 29, 2024, down from $31.0 million in the prior year [61]. Gains and Losses - The company reported a gain on the sale of business amounting to $44,015,000 for the fiscal year ended December 29, 2024 [42]. - A gain of $44.0 million was recorded related to the Good Health and R.W. Garcia Sale for the fiscal year ended December 29, 2024 [61]. - The company recorded a non-cash loss on sale of $13.7 million related to fixed assets for the sale of the Bluffton, Indiana plant for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2023 [56]. Future Outlook - For fiscal year 2025, the company expects low-single digit organic net sales growth and adjusted EBITDA growth of 6% to 10% [19]. - The effective tax rate for fiscal year 2025 is expected to be in the range of 17% to 19% [19]. - Capital expenditures for the fiscal year 2025 are projected to be between $90 million and $100 million, focusing on increasing manufacturing capacity [19].

To become a better investor it is always good to do some reflection about your own investment decisions. Sometimes saying goodbye to a stock is an essential part of the process. It is not wise toI am a Dutch manual therapist (MSc) and a passionate retail investor. My investment journey started in 2021 and from that point my love for investing has begun. Nearly from the start i had a strong preference for dividend growth investing.My investment goal is to retire early with the dividend growth strategy, combi ...

Asia Value & Moat Stocks is a research service for value investors seeking Asia-listed stocks with a huge gap between price and intrinsic value, leaning towards deep value balance sheet bargains (i.e. buying assets at a discount e.g. net cash stocks, net-nets, low P/B stocks, sum-of-the-parts discounts) and wide moat stocks (i.e. buying earnings power at a discount in great companies like "Magic Formula" stocks, high-quality businesses, hidden champions and wide moat compounders). Sign up here to get starte ...

Utz Brands (UTZ) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.21 per share, in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. This compares to earnings of $0.17 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.A quarter ago, it was expected that this company would post earnings of $0.17 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.19, delivering a surprise of 11.76%.Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times.Utz Brands, which belongs to the Zack ...

UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 FORM 10-Q ☒ QUARTERLY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the quarterly period ended September 29, 2024 OR ☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the transition period from to Utz Brands, Inc. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) Delaware 001-38686 85-2751850 (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation) (Commission F ...