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Company Overview - Waste Connections (WCN) is one of the largest integrated waste services companies in North America, operating in the US and Canada [1] - The company has experienced significant growth in recent years, largely due to numerous acquisitions, including a record number of deals [1] Analyst Background - The analyst has over 10 years of experience researching companies across various sectors, including commodities and technology [1] - The analyst has researched over 1000 companies and has transitioned from writing a blog to a value investing-focused YouTube channel [1] - The analyst expresses a preference for covering metals and mining stocks but is also comfortable with other industries such as consumer discretionary/staples, REITs, and utilities [1]

Group 1 - Waste Connections has filed a lawsuit against Haulla, alleging theft of confidential customer information and encouraging customers to breach contracts with Waste Connections [3][5] - The lawsuit claims Haulla accessed Waste Connections' customer portal illegally, created over 2,500 fake customer profiles, and impersonated customers to obtain sensitive pricing and service details [3][4] - Waste Connections asserts that Haulla's actions have damaged customer relationships and negatively impacted business operations [5] Group 2 - Haulla, operating under Ecube Labs, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and is involved in a separate lawsuit initiated by Waste Connections in March 2024 [6] - A Texas bankruptcy court has approved Haulla's request to borrow up to $1.5 million from its parent company to sustain operations, with an immediate borrowing of $500,000 [6] - Waste Connections has updated its complaint to include allegations against Ecube Labs Ltd., claiming it conspired with Haulla in the fraudulent activities [6]

Core Viewpoint - UBS has increased its price target for Waste Connections, Inc. from $190 to $195, maintaining a "Neutral" rating, citing steady execution and resilient fundamentals following Q3 results [1] Financial Performance - Waste Connections reported Q3 2025 revenue of $2.46 billion, up from $2.34 billion year-over-year, indicating growth [3] - Adjusted EBITDA for the same period rose to $830.3 million, aligning with the company's 2025 guidance, reflecting consistency and disciplined cost management [3] Future Outlook - UBS has adjusted its annual adjusted EBITDA forecasts for Waste Connections to $3.12 billion, $3.36 billion, and $3.70 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, attributing the upward revision to the company's strong performance and potential M&A activity due to pressures on smaller operators [2]

Core Insights - Shifting economics are impacting landfill gas to renewable natural gas (RNG) projects, with waste companies adjusting their RNG portfolios based on D3 RIN prices [2] - RIN prices have decreased by approximately one dollar in October compared to the previous year, leading to Jefferies lowering its long-term credit expectation from $2.50 to $2.20 [3] - Waste Connections is facing "cost creep and delays" in its RNG projects, prompting a delay in planned capital spending [4] Company-Specific Insights - Waste Connections had previously expected a 1-1 ratio between investment and earnings from RNG projects, but this has shifted to a potential 2-1 ratio due to current RIN prices around $2.25 [5] - WM plans to delay the sale of some RINs to the fourth quarter to capitalize on potential price increases [6] - Republic Services may pivot towards using landfill gas for electricity generation instead of RNG to meet rising energy demands from data centers [6] Industry Trends - Analysts attribute the decline in RIN prices to the EPA's conservative proposals regarding future credit volumes, which raises concerns about long-term demand for renewable natural gas in transportation [7] - Despite current RIN prices, waste companies can still achieve returns on their RNG investments, but may consider alternative outlets or revert to landfill gas-to-electricity projects if prices remain low [8]

Core Insights - The article highlights the author's extensive experience in financial analysis across various sectors, emphasizing expertise in market analysis, valuation models, and investment strategy [1]. Group 1: Experience and Background - The author has over 13 years of diverse financial analysis experience, particularly in the Auto, Industrials, and IT sectors [1]. - Previous roles include working in treasury for Ford and Caterpillar, as well as managing investor relations and strategic finance for a listed IT company with a market cap of approximately USD 2.5 billion [1]. - The author's background also includes experience as an equity research analyst, which has contributed to a strong understanding of business growth drivers [1].

Core Insights - Zacks Premium provides tools for investors to enhance their stock market engagement and confidence, including daily updates, research reports, and stock screens [1] Zacks Style Scores - Zacks Style Scores are indicators that assist investors in selecting stocks likely to outperform the market within 30 days, rated from A to F based on value, growth, and momentum characteristics [2] - The Value Score focuses on identifying undervalued stocks using financial ratios like P/E and Price/Sales [3] - The Growth Score evaluates a company's financial health and future outlook through projected earnings and sales [4] - The Momentum Score identifies stocks with upward or downward trends using price changes and earnings estimate changes [5] - The VGM Score combines all three Style Scores, providing a comprehensive indicator for stock selection [6] Zacks Rank - The Zacks Rank is a proprietary model based on earnings estimate revisions, with 1 (Strong Buy) stocks achieving an average annual return of +23.81% since 1988, outperforming the S&P 500 [7] - There are typically over 800 stocks rated 1 or 2, making it essential to utilize Style Scores for effective selection [8] - Stocks with a Zacks Rank of 1 or 2 and Style Scores of A or B are recommended for maximizing return potential [9] Stock Highlight: Waste Connections (WCN) - Waste Connections is an integrated solid waste services company operating in the U.S. and Canada, providing waste collection, disposal, and recycling services [11] - WCN holds a 3 (Hold) Zacks Rank with a VGM Score of B and a Momentum Style Score of A, having increased by 2.6% over the past four weeks [12] - Analysts have revised WCN's earnings estimate upwards, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate rising by $0.05 to $5.15 per share, and an average earnings surprise of +2.5% [12][13]

Core Insights - Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) reported strong third-quarter 2025 results, with earnings and revenues exceeding Zacks Consensus Estimates [1][9] - Despite the earnings beat, the stock price has not shown significant movement since the results were released on October 21 [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings were $1.44 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.4% and increasing 6.7% year-over-year [2] - Revenues reached $2.5 billion, slightly beating consensus estimates and growing 5.1% from the previous year [2] - Adjusted EBITDA was $787.4 million, down 5.4% from the year-ago quarter, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 33.7%, a decrease of 10 basis points year-over-year [5][9] Segment Performance - Solid Waste Collection segment revenues grew 6.6% year-over-year to $1.7 billion, meeting estimates [3] - Solid Waste Disposal and Transfer segment revenues increased to $456.4 million, surpassing projections [3] - Solid Waste Recycling segment revenues fell 16.2% year-over-year to $56.2 million, missing estimates [4] - E&P Waste Treatment, Recovery and Disposal segment revenues rose 21.6% year-over-year to $179.1 million, exceeding estimates [4] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q3 2025 were $117.6 million, up from $110.2 million in the previous quarter [6] - Long-term debt increased to $8.6 billion from $8.3 billion in the prior quarter [6] - Generated $677.4 million in cash from operating activities, with adjusted free cash flow of $384.6 million [7] Outlook - For FY25, the company expects revenues of $9.45 billion, slightly below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $9.46 billion [8] - Anticipated adjusted EBITDA for FY25 is $3.12 billion, representing nearly 33% of total revenues [8]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis presents a neutral stance on Waste Connections, Inc. (NYSE: WCN) (TSX: WCN:CA), highlighting strengths in pricing but noting challenges such as volume softness, commodity price headwinds, and ongoing regulatory and litigation risks [1]. Summary by Relevant Categories Company Performance - Waste Connections, Inc. exhibits good pricing strength, which is a positive aspect of its performance [1]. Market Challenges - The company faces volume softness, which may impact overall growth [1]. - There are commodity price headwinds that could affect profitability [1]. - Ongoing regulatory and litigation risks are present, potentially posing challenges to the company's operations [1].

Core Viewpoint - The analysis presents a neutral stance on Waste Connections, Inc. (NYSE: WCN) (TSX: WCN:CA), highlighting strengths in pricing but noting challenges such as volume softness, commodity price headwinds, and ongoing regulatory and litigation risks [1]. Summary by Relevant Categories Company Performance - Waste Connections, Inc. exhibits good pricing strength, which is a positive indicator for its financial health [1]. Market Challenges - The company faces volume softness, which may impact overall revenue generation [1]. - There are commodity price headwinds that could affect profitability [1]. - Ongoing regulatory and litigation risks present additional challenges for the company [1].