Core Viewpoint - The Wendy's Company reported a decline in overall systemwide sales for the second quarter of 2025, primarily due to lower same-restaurant sales in the U.S., while the international segment showed strong growth. Operational Highlights - The company opened 44 new restaurants in the second quarter, totaling 118 new openings in the first half of 2025 [2] - International systemwide sales grew by 8.7%, while U.S. systemwide sales declined by 3.3% [2][5] - Same-restaurant sales growth in the U.S. was down 3.6%, compared to a 1.8% increase in the international segment [2][5] - The total restaurant count at the end of the quarter was 7,334, with 5,967 in the U.S. and 1,367 internationally [2] Financial Highlights - Total revenues for the second quarter were $560.9 million, a decrease of 1.7% from the previous year [4] - Adjusted revenues were $449.6 million, down 1.3% year-over-year [4] - U.S. Company-operated restaurant margin decreased to 16.2%, down from 16.5% [4][7] - Operating profit increased to $104.3 million, up 4.8% from the previous year [4][10] - Net income for the quarter was $55.1 million, a slight increase of 0.9% [4][11] - Reported diluted earnings per share were $0.29, reflecting a 7.4% increase [4][13] Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns - Cash flow from operations was $146.0 million, a 0.3% increase year-over-year [4] - The company returned $88.7 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases [9] - The company repurchased 4.8 million shares for $61.9 million in the second quarter [15] 2025 Outlook - The company reaffirmed its global net unit growth target of 2-3% and capital expenditures between $165 million and $175 million [16] - The updated expectations for global systemwide sales growth are now between -5.0% to -3.0% [16] - Adjusted earnings per share are expected to be between $0.82 and $0.89, down from previous estimates [16]

Core Viewpoint - Wendy's Company is expected to report a decline in earnings and revenue for the second quarter compared to the previous year [1][2] Financial Performance - Analysts predict quarterly earnings of 25 cents per share, down from 27 cents per share in the same period last year [1] - Projected quarterly revenue is $558.03 million, a decrease from $570.73 million a year earlier [1] Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Citigroup analyst Jon Tower maintained a Neutral rating and reduced the price target from $13.75 to $11.5 [4] - B of A Securities analyst Gregory Francfort maintained a Buy rating but lowered the price target from $13 to $11 [4] - Morgan Stanley analyst John Glass kept an Underweight rating and cut the price target from $13 to $11 [4] - Truist Securities analyst Jake Bartlett maintained a Buy rating and reduced the price target from $16 to $14 [4] - BMO Capital analyst Andrew Strelzik maintained a Market Perform rating and lowered the price target from $17 to $15 [4] Stock Performance - Wendy's shares fell 0.8% to close at $9.96 on Thursday [2]

Core Viewpoint - Wendy's is expected to report a decline in second-quarter revenue and earnings per share, continuing a trend of missed analyst estimates in recent quarters [1][2]. Financial Performance - Analysts estimate second-quarter revenue at $560.4 million, down from $570.7 million in the previous year [1]. - Expected earnings per share for the second quarter is 26 cents, a decrease from 27 cents in the same quarter last year [2]. - Wendy's has missed analyst estimates in six of the last ten quarters [2]. Traffic and Sales Trends - Wendy's visits decreased by 3.0% year-over-year in the second quarter, an improvement from a 4.7% decline in the first quarter [3]. - The company reported a sales decline of 2.1% year-over-year in the first quarter, with U.S. sales down 2.6% [4]. Promotions and Future Growth - The second quarter included several promotions, such as new Frosty's and the Cajun Crunch Spicy Chicken, along with free fries offerings [4]. - A new promotion, "Meal of Misfortune," in partnership with Netflix's "Wednesday," is set to launch in the third quarter, which may help drive future traffic [5][7]. - Wendy's is focusing on international expansion, with plans to achieve 70% of unit growth outside the U.S. and aims to reach 2,000 international restaurants by 2028 [8][9]. Leadership Changes - The company is currently searching for a new CEO following Kirk Tanner's departure, with CFO Ken Cook serving as interim CEO [7]. Stock Performance - Wendy's stock is currently flat at $10.02, down 37.8% year-to-date, within a 52-week trading range of $9.74 to $20.60 [9].

Core Viewpoint - Analysts project that Wendy's will report quarterly earnings of $0.25 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 7.4%, with revenues expected to reach $555.52 million, down 2.7% from the same quarter last year [1]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 0.8% over the past 30 days, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [2]. - Revisions to earnings estimates are significant indicators for predicting investor actions regarding the stock, with empirical research showing a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price performance [3]. Revenue Projections - Analysts estimate that revenues from company-operated restaurants will be $230.36 million, a decrease of 3% year-over-year [5]. - Projected revenues from advertising funds are estimated at $110.57 million, reflecting a decline of 3.9% from the prior year [5]. - Franchise rental income is expected to reach $60.37 million, indicating a slight decrease of 0.4% from the previous year [6]. - Franchise royalty revenue and fees are projected at $153.65 million, down 2.6% from the same quarter last year [6]. Restaurant Metrics - The total number of restaurants is projected to be 7,336, an increase from 7,261 reported in the same quarter last year [7]. - The number of international restaurants is estimated at 1,367, up from 1,236 year-over-year [7]. - The consensus for total franchised restaurants stands at 6,933, compared to 5,614 in the same quarter last year [8]. - The number of company-operated restaurants is expected to be 402, slightly up from 399 year-over-year [8]. Systemwide Sales - Analysts forecast that systemwide sales for international company-operated restaurants will reach $7.19 million, compared to $6.20 million last year [9]. - Systemwide sales for U.S. company-operated restaurants are expected to be $223.77 million, down from $231.20 million year-over-year [9]. Stock Performance - Wendy's shares have shown a return of -10.6% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's increase of +1.2% [10]. - With a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), Wendy's is anticipated to underperform the overall market in the near future [10].

Core Viewpoint - The Wendy's Company is expected to report second-quarter 2025 results on August 8, with earnings anticipated to decline due to soft consumer demand and weak traffic trends [1][10]. Group 1: Earnings and Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is set at 25 cents per share, reflecting a 7.4% decrease from the previous year [2]. - Revenue is projected at $555.5 million, indicating a decline of 2.7% compared to the same quarter last year [2]. Group 2: Factors Impacting Performance - The company's second-quarter performance is likely to be negatively impacted by soft consumer demand, particularly among lower-income households, which have reduced spending by high single to low double digits [3]. - Quick-service restaurant traffic trends have shown mid-single-digit declines in the first quarter, with no signs of recovery in early second-quarter 2025, limiting Wendy's growth potential [4]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Wendy's has launched several initiatives, including the "100 Days of Summer" campaign and new Frosty collaborations, aimed at adapting to changing consumer preferences; however, these initiatives began rolling out late in the quarter, limiting their immediate impact [5]. Group 4: Sales and Margins - Total U.S. sales for Wendy's are predicted to decline by 4.6% in the second quarter, while international sales are expected to increase by 9.3% year over year [6]. - The bottom line is anticipated to decline due to commodity inflation and an uncertain macro environment, with total costs and expenses expected to decrease by 1.5% to $464.2 million [7]. - Adjusted EBITDA is projected to decline by 2.4% to $139.7 million, with the Adjusted EBITDA margin increasing by 10 basis points to 25.2% [8].

Summary of US Consumer Tracker (2Q25) Industry Overview - **Industry**: US Consumer Sector - **Key Focus**: Impact of inflation, consumer sentiment, and tariffs on spending behavior Core Insights 1. **Inflation and Consumer Income**: - Inflation has increased, with a notable rise to 2.7% in June 2025, while real disposable income has declined sequentially in May 2025 [3][15] - Tariff-driven inflation is expected to further impact consumer prices in the second half of 2025 [2] 2. **Consumer Sentiment**: - Consumer sentiment showed slight recovery in June but remains significantly lower year-to-date in 2025, particularly among high-income consumers concerned about inflation and employment [3][17] - The trade-down effect is evident as consumers shift to lower-priced options due to economic pressures [3][17] 3. **Retail Sales Trends**: - Retail sales growth has normalized after an earlier pull forward, indicating stable shopping behaviors despite economic challenges [3][21] - Categories such as home goods and toys have turned inflationary in Q2 2025, contributing to a weak consumer backdrop [3][87] 4. **Sector Performance**: - **Broadlines & Hardlines Retail**: Companies like Dollar General (DG), Dollar Tree (DLTR), and Walmart (WMT) are expected to benefit from trade-down trends, with WMT well-positioned due to its enhanced shopping experience [4] - **Specialty Retail**: Anticipated price increases of high single digits to low double digits for apparel and footwear, and over 20% for hard goods due to tariffs, may impact Q3 spending [5] - **Restaurants**: A macro deceleration in May affected spending, with potential declines in 2026 due to SNAP benefit reductions [6] - **Alcohol Sector**: Consumption is pressured by affordability concerns, particularly among low-income consumers [7] 5. **Investment Ratings**: - **Retailing**: Outperform ratings for WMT, COST, DG, and LOW; Market-Perform for HD and DLTR; Underperform for TGT [11] - **Food Sector**: Outperform ratings for MKC, MDLZ, SMPL, and CPB; Market-Perform for several others [11] - **Apparel & Specialty Retail**: Outperform ratings for brands like NKE, TJX, and LULU; Market-Perform for CPRI and ROST [11] Additional Insights 1. **Consumer Behavior**: - The gap between low-income and high-income consumer sentiment has narrowed, indicating a shift in spending patterns [13][17] - Cooking from scratch is increasing as consumers seek value amid rising prices [7] 2. **Economic Indicators**: - The unemployment rate remains low, but consumer credit growth has decelerated in a high-rate environment [13][51] - The 10-Year Treasury yield remains elevated, reflecting higher inflation expectations [46][48] 3. **Inflation Dynamics**: - Cumulative inflation since January 2019 is at 28%, with food and energy leading the increases [94][96] - General merchandise categories have recently turned inflationary, influenced by tariff-driven price increases [83] This summary encapsulates the key findings and implications from the US Consumer Tracker for Q2 2025, highlighting the challenges and opportunities within the consumer sector amidst ongoing economic pressures.

Group 1: Earnings Reports Overview - Palantir has secured a $10 billion Army contract and is expected to report strong quarterly results, with predictions of a "total blowout" due to strong business performance [2] - Berkshire Hathaway's upcoming earnings report is anticipated to be different under Greg Abel's leadership, with expectations of a potential stock price increase if results are favorable [1] - DuPont's breakup is on track, with expectations that the individual parts will be valued higher than the whole [3] Group 2: Sector Insights - Caterpillar is expected to post strong results, benefiting from domestic infrastructure and reshoring trends [3] - Eli Lilly's performance will be closely watched, especially in light of competitor Novo Nordisk's disappointing quarter, raising questions about market share dynamics in the GLP-1 drug sector [5] - Disney's shares have been climbing, with positive remarks on its streaming, theme park, and cruise line segments [4] Group 3: Other Companies to Watch - McDonald's is viewed as a buy due to recent improvements and new offerings [4] - Warner Bros Discovery is undergoing reorganization and debt reduction, with anticipation around its earnings report [6] - Pinterest is expected to deliver solid results, being recognized as a family-friendly advertising platform [6]

Core Viewpoint - Wendy's has recently cut its dividend by 44%, but the stock still offers a yield above the S&P 500 average, potentially making it an underrated income stock for investors [2][11]. Dividend Changes - Wendy's reduced its quarterly dividend from $0.25 to $0.14, resulting in an annual payout of $0.56 per share [4]. - The new dividend payout ratio is approximately 74% of earnings, which appears sustainable given the current earnings levels [5][10]. Financial Performance - In the first quarter of 2025, Wendy's reported diluted earnings per share of $0.19, down by $0.01 year over year [5]. - The company has experienced a 35% decline in stock price since the beginning of the year, attributed to the dividend cut and disappointing sales results [6]. Market Valuation - Wendy's stock is currently trading at 11 times its trailing earnings, significantly lower than the S&P 500 average of 25 times [8]. - The stock is near its 52-week low, indicating a potentially undervalued position in the market [8]. Investment Outlook - Despite recent challenges, Wendy's remains a leading fast-food chain, and the current low valuation combined with a sustainable dividend yield of 5.2% presents a contrarian investment opportunity [9][11]. - There is a belief that the market has overreacted to Wendy's recent performance, suggesting that the stock could be a good long-term investment if financial conditions stabilize [12].

Market Overview - Trading in the S&P 500 index has seen reduced volatility, leading to fewer opportunities for profitable trades, but there is increased activity in other stocks [1] - Unusual trading volumes indicate potential accumulation or speculation in certain stocks, suggesting opportunities for volatility outside of major indexes [2] Company Insights Rocket Companies Inc. (RKT) - Rocket Companies has been identified as a stock with significant trading activity, with daily volumes reaching 64.3 million shares on July 22, compared to an average of 20 million shares [7] - The stock trades at a price-to-cash (P/C) ratio of 71x, significantly higher than the finance sector's average of 21.6x, indicating a premium valuation [5] - The current low mortgage cycle presents an opportunity for Rocket to deploy its cash aggressively when mortgage rates decline, potentially increasing demand [6] Wendy's Co. (WEN) - Wendy's stock has seen a decline in short interest by 45.3%, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment amid rising consumer concerns about inflation [8] - The stock trades at 49% of its 52-week high, presenting an attractive risk-to-reward ratio for buyers [9] - Trading volume for Wendy's reached 19.3 million shares on July 22, significantly above its average of six million shares, with analysts projecting a price target of $15.3, indicating a potential rally of 50.5% [10][11] PulteGroup Inc. (PHM) - PulteGroup's earnings per share (EPS) growth is crucial for its stock performance, with analysts projecting an EPS of $3.17 for Q4 2025, following a recent report of $3.03 EPS that beat expectations by 4% [13][14] - Trading volume for PulteGroup increased to five million shares on July 21, indicating heightened investor interest [15] - UBS analyst John Lovallo has set a price target of $150 for PulteGroup, suggesting a potential rally of 28% from current trading levels [15]

Core Viewpoint - The resurgence of meme stocks is driven by retail traders, reminiscent of the 2021 craze, with potential for even larger rallies as they mobilize online and disregard Wall Street skepticism [1][6]. Group 1: Retailer Performance - Retailers such as Kohl's, GoPro, Wendy's, and Krispy Kreme experienced significant stock rallies, with Kohl's up 32%, GoPro up 66%, and Krispy Kreme up 41% over the week [6]. - American Eagle Outfitters saw a 10% increase in shares after actress Sydney Sweeney was announced as the face of its marketing campaign [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The current market environment, characterized by high trading volumes and speculative behavior, is conducive to meme stock rallies, similar to the conditions during the Covid era [6][10]. - The meme-stock phenomenon is often detached from traditional economic fundamentals, with investors supporting brands for emotional or ideological reasons rather than financial metrics [7][10]. Group 3: Community Influence - The wallstreetbets forum empowers retail traders to share research and ideas, leading to a decentralization of financial analysis and investment power [5]. - The community's influence is evident as retail traders push stock prices significantly, demonstrating the power of collective action [5]. Group 4: Cultural Impact - The meme culture surrounding stocks, such as Wendy's, illustrates how humor and social media can drive investment decisions, often independent of market fundamentals [8][10]. - The evolving landscape of finance, including the rise of blockchain and AI trading, reflects a shift in how retail traders engage with the market [4].