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Deutsche Bank AG(DB) - 2024 Q3 - Quarterly Report

Strategy Deutsche Bank is advancing its 'Global Hausbank' strategy, reaffirming 2025 financial targets and demonstrating progress in operational and capital efficiency Global Hausbank Strategy Deutsche Bank is advancing its 'Global Hausbank' strategy, reaffirming its 2025 financial targets, which include a post-tax return on average tangible equity (RoTE) of over 10% and a cost/income ratio below 62.5% In the third quarter of 2024, the bank demonstrated progress in revenue growth, operational efficiency through cost-saving programs and workforce reductions, and capital efficiency via significant risk-weighted asset (RWA) reductions and the completion of a share repurchase program 2025 Financial Targets and Capital Objectives | Metric | Target | | :--- | :--- | | Financial Targets | | | Post-tax RoTE | > 10% | | Revenue CAGR (2021-2025) | 5.5% to 6.5% | | Cost/Income Ratio | < 62.5% | | Capital Objectives | | | CET1 Capital Ratio | ~13% | | Total Payout Ratio (from 2025) | 50% | - Progress on the €2.5 billion Operational Efficiency program reached €1.7 billion in total savings (realized or expected), with cumulative workforce reductions of approximately 3,300 full-time equivalents (FTEs)1654 - Capital efficiency measures delivered a further €3 billion in RWA equivalent benefits in Q3, bringing the cumulative reduction to €22 billion, progressing towards the €25-30 billion goal for 20254554 - A share repurchase program of €675 million was completed in July 2024, bringing total shareholder distributions since 2022 to €3.3 billion45 Sustainability The bank enhanced its sustainability profile by receiving improved ratings from five major ESG agencies in 2024 It actively engaged in sustainable finance through partnerships and events, and executed several key green and sustainability-linked transactions Internally, Deutsche Bank strengthened its due diligence requirements for nature and ocean protection risks - Received rating improvements from five major ESG rating agencies during the year18 - Hosted and participated in multiple sustainability-focused events with partners such as UNEP FI, PCAF, and CDP19 - Key sustainable finance deals in Q3 included a €3.0 billion sustainability-linked facility for Uniper, financing for 100,000 solar streetlamps in Senegal, and acting as Joint Lead Manager on KfW's €3 billion green bond4663 - Introduced enhanced internal due diligence requirements for nature risks and ocean protection as part of its commitment to the BackBlue initiative47 Group Results The Group reported strong Q3 2024 financial performance driven by revenue growth, improved profitability, and robust capital and liquidity positions Financial Performance In Q3 2024, Deutsche Bank reported a significant 78% year-on-year increase in profit before tax to €4.2 billion, largely driven by a €440 million release of Postbank litigation provisions Excluding this one-off item, profit before tax still grew by a strong 60% Total net revenues rose 22% to €9.5 billion Profitability metrics showed marked improvement, with post-tax RoTE reaching 19.3% (16.9% adjusted) and the cost/income ratio improving to 50% (55% adjusted) Group Financial Highlights (Q3 2024 vs Q3 2023) | Metric | Q3 2024 | Q3 2023 | Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Profit before tax | €4,231 m | €2,372 m | +78% | | Profit after tax | €3,065 m | €1,661 m | +85% | | Total net revenues | €9,470 m | €7,781 m | +22% | | Post-tax RoTE | 19.3% | 10.6% | +8.8 ppt | | Cost/income ratio | 50.1% | 66.4% | -16.3 ppt | - The strong profit growth was significantly impacted by a partial release of approximately €440 million in litigation provisions related to the Postbank AG takeover52 - For the first nine months of 2024, profit before tax was €6.0 billion, up 11% year-on-year Excluding the Postbank litigation impact, nine-month profit before tax was €6.9 billion, up 28%53 Revenues by Division The Group's 22% revenue growth in Q3 2024 was led by strong performance in the Investment Bank and Asset Management, which saw revenues increase by 11% each The Investment Bank's growth was broad-based across FIC and Origination & Advisory The Private Bank's revenues remained stable, as growth in investment products offset a decline in net interest income The Corporate Bank experienced a slight 3% revenue decline due to normalizing deposit margins Net Revenues by Division (Q3 2024 vs Q3 2023) | Division | Q3 2024 Net Revenues | YoY Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Investment Bank | €2,523 m | +11% | | Private Bank | €2,319 m | -1% | | Corporate Bank | €1,841 m | -3% | | Asset Management | €660 m | +11% | - Investment Bank revenue growth was driven by an 11% increase in Fixed Income & Currencies (FIC) and a 24% rise in Origination & Advisory29 - Asset Management's revenue growth was supported by a 6% increase in management fees, with Assets under Management reaching a record €963 billion29 Expenses and Provisions Noninterest expenses for Q3 2024 decreased by 8% to €4.7 billion, primarily due to the Postbank litigation provision release Adjusted costs, which exclude such one-off items, were €5.0 billion, up 2% year-on-year and in line with guidance Provision for credit losses more than doubled to €494 million from €245 million in the prior-year quarter, mainly driven by higher provisions for non-performing loans (Stage 3) - Noninterest expenses were €4.7 billion, down 8% YoY, mainly reflecting the Postbank litigation release of ~€440 million30 - Adjusted costs were €5.0 billion, up 2% YoY, consistent with the bank's quarterly guidance57 Provision for Credit Losses (Q3 2024) | Category | Amount (in € m) | Note | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Total Provision | 494 | Up from €245m in Q3 2023 | | Stage 1 & 2 (Performing) | 12 | Down from €35m in Q2 2024 | | Stage 3 (Non-performing) | 482 | Up from €441m in Q2 2024 | Capital and Liquidity The bank maintained a robust capital and liquidity position The Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio improved to 13.8% from 13.5% in the prior quarter The Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) was stable at 135%, well above the 100% regulatory minimum, and the Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) was 122%, exceeding the bank's guidance - The Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio was 13.8%, up from 13.5% in the previous quarter34 - The Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) stood at 135%, representing a surplus of €60 billion over regulatory requirements62 - The Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) was 122%, above the target range of 115-120%, with a surplus of €112 billion62 - Deposits increased by €6 billion during the quarter to €652 billion62 Segment Results Divisional performance in Q3 2024 showed strong results in Investment Bank and Asset Management, with Private and Corporate Banks facing specific challenges Corporate Bank The Corporate Bank's profit before tax for Q3 2024 decreased by 29% year-on-year to €539 million, primarily due to a significant increase in provision for credit losses Net revenues were down 3% to €1.8 billion, as the normalization of deposit margins was mostly offset by higher deposit volumes and growth in fee income Noninterest expenses rose 5% due to investments and higher service cost allocations Corporate Bank Q3 2024 Performance | Metric | Q3 2024 | YoY Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Profit before tax | €539 m | -29% | | Net revenues | €1,841 m | -3% | | Provision for credit losses | €126 m | +1036% | | Noninterest expenses | €1,177 m | +5% | - The increase in provision for credit losses to €126 million from €11 million YoY was impacted by higher Stage 3 provisions, including a large corporate restructuring event93 - Deposits grew by 8% or €23 billion year-on-year, while loans decreased by 2%70 Investment Bank The Investment Bank delivered a strong performance in Q3 2024, with profit before tax increasing 21% year-on-year to €813 million Net revenues grew 11% to €2.5 billion, with robust growth in both Fixed Income & Currencies (FIC) and Origination & Advisory (O&A) The cost/income ratio improved to 63% from 68% in the prior-year quarter, reflecting positive operating leverage Investment Bank Q3 2024 Performance | Metric | Q3 2024 | YoY Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Profit before tax | €813 m | +21% | | Net revenues | €2,523 m | +11% | | - Fixed Income & Currencies | €2,124 m | +11% | | - Origination & Advisory | €401 m | +24% | | Cost/income ratio | 62.6% | -5.2 ppt | - For the first nine months of 2024, profit before tax was up 32% to €2.8 billion, driven by 12% revenue growth and a 1% reduction in noninterest expenses77 - Provision for credit losses was €135 million, significantly higher than the prior year's €63 million, which had benefited from a material provision release100 Private Bank The Private Bank's Q3 2024 profit before tax fell 18% year-on-year to €319 million, mainly due to higher provision for credit losses, which were impacted by transitory effects from the Postbank integration Net revenues were essentially flat at €2.3 billion, as a 5% growth in Wealth Management & Private Banking was offset by a 5% decline in Personal Banking Assets under Management grew by €13 billion in the quarter to €625 billion Private Bank Q3 2024 Performance | Metric | Q3 2024 | YoY Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Profit before tax | €319 m | -18% | | Net revenues | €2,319 m | -1% | | - Personal Banking | €1,303 m | -5% | | - Wealth Management & PB | €1,016 m | +5% | | Provision for credit losses | €205 m | +18% | - Assets under Management reached €625 billion, up €13 billion in the quarter, driven by €8 billion in net inflows and positive market movements129 - For the first nine months of 2024, net inflows were €27 billion, a significant increase from €17 billion in the same period of 2023130 Asset Management Asset Management reported a strong Q3 2024, with profit before tax surging 54% year-on-year to €168 million Net revenues increased by 11% to €660 million, driven by higher management fees from growing assets Assets under Management (AuM) reached a record €963 billion, increasing by €30 billion during the quarter, supported by very strong net inflows of €18 billion Asset Management Q3 2024 Performance | Metric | Q3 2024 | YoY Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Profit before tax | €168 m | +54% | | Net revenues | €660 m | +11% | | Assets under Management | €963 bn | +12% | | Net flows | €18 bn | N/M | - The increase in AuM was driven by €18 billion in net inflows (the second highest for any quarter), positive market appreciation, partly offset by negative FX effects110 - The cost/income ratio improved significantly to 67% from 75% in the prior-year quarter134 Corporate & Other Corporate & Other reported a profit before tax of €2.4 billion in Q3 2024, a substantial increase from €447 million in the prior year This result was primarily driven by positive valuation and timing differences from interest rate hedges and a significant provision release of €444 million related to the Postbank takeover litigation - Profit before tax was €2.4 billion, compared to €447 million in Q3 2023115 - The result was driven by valuation and timing differences and a €444 million provision release in the Postbank takeover litigation matter115 - Net revenues were €2.1 billion, compared to €685 million in the prior year quarter, reflecting gains on portfolio hedges of interest rate risk116 Consolidated Balance Sheet The balance sheet as of September 30, 2024, shows increased total assets and deposits, with robust equity growth driven by profit generation Assets and Liabilities As of September 30, 2024, Deutsche Bank's total assets stood at €1.38 trillion, a slight increase from year-end 2023 The growth was mainly driven by a €28.4 billion increase in trading assets and a €36.3 billion rise in non-trading financial assets at fair value This was partially offset by a €3.1 billion decrease in loans at amortized cost On the liabilities side, deposits grew by a strong €26.0 billion to €651.5 billion since year-end 2023 Balance Sheet Highlights (as of Sep 30, 2024 vs Dec 31, 2023) | Item | Sep 30, 2024 | Dec 31, 2023 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Total Assets | €1,384.1 bn | €1,317.3 bn | | Loans at amortized cost | €476.3 bn | €479.4 bn | | Trading assets | €153.7 bn | €125.3 bn | | Total Liabilities | €1,305.2 bn | €1,240.9 bn | | Deposits | €651.5 bn | €625.5 bn | - The increase in trading assets was mainly due to higher exposure in government securities from client flows and desk positioning124 - The decrease in loans was primarily driven by lower mortgage origination in the Private Bank and selective deployment in the Corporate Bank125 Equity Total equity increased by €2.6 billion to €78.9 billion as of September 30, 2024, compared to year-end 2023 This growth was primarily driven by the €4.0 billion profit for the period The increase was partially offset by capital returns to shareholders, including €1.1 billion in share repurchases and €883 million in cash dividends The bank completed its €675 million share repurchase program in July 2024 - Total equity rose to €78.9 billion from €76.3 billion at year-end 2023182 - The increase was driven by €4.0 billion in profit, offset by €1.1 billion in share buybacks and €883 million in dividend payments182 - A share repurchase program of €675 million was completed between March and July 2024, under which 46.4 million shares were repurchased155 Outlook The bank reaffirms its 2025 strategic targets and provides updated guidance for 2024, considering macroeconomic trends and industry challenges Macroeconomic and Industry Outlook The global economy is projected to grow by 3.2% in 2024, with the U.S. expected to achieve a soft landing (2.7% growth) However, the Eurozone (0.9%) and particularly Germany (0.2%) are facing sluggish momentum Central banks are anticipated to continue easing monetary policy The banking industry faces offsetting trends: elevated interest rates may challenge refinancing, but moderate economic growth and rate cuts should support lending 2024 GDP Growth Forecasts | Region | GDP Growth Forecast | | :--- | :--- | | Global | 3.2% | | U.S. | 2.7% | | Eurozone | 0.9% | | Germany | 0.2% | | China | 4.9% | - Headline inflation is projected to decline globally, but core inflation is expected to ease more slowly158 - U.S. Commercial Real Estate (CRE) exposures are expected to remain a challenge for banks but should gradually stabilize161 Deutsche Bank Group Outlook Deutsche Bank reaffirms its 2025 strategic targets and expects 2024 revenues to be around €30 billion The bank has raised its full-year 2024 guidance for provision for credit losses to approximately €1.8 billion, citing impacts from the Postbank integration and certain corporate events The CET1 ratio is expected to remain stable, and the bank is committed to its capital distribution goal, aiming for a €0.68 per share dividend for the 2024 financial year - Reaffirms 2025 financial targets: post-tax RoTE >10%, revenue CAGR of 5.5-6.5%, and cost/income ratio <62.5%193 - Full-year 2024 revenue guidance maintained at around €30 billion164 - Full-year 2024 provision for credit losses guidance increased to around €1.8 billion (approx. 38 bps of average loans)170 - Aims for a cash dividend of €0.68 per share for FY2024 and €1.00 per share for FY2025, subject to a 50% payout ratio200 Risks and Opportunities The bank identifies key geopolitical, macroeconomic, regulatory, and operational risks while also highlighting potential opportunities for growth Risks The bank identifies several key risks Geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine and the upcoming U.S. elections, remain elevated Macroeconomic risks include potential market corrections, a U.S. recession, and persistent stress in Commercial Real Estate (CRE) markets The bank also faces ongoing regulatory scrutiny, compliance challenges, and risks related to technology, data management, and cybersecurity - Geopolitical Risks: Elevated concerns regarding the Middle East conflict, Russia's war in Ukraine, U.S.-China tensions, and the U.S. presidential election209234235 - Macroeconomic & Market Risks: Risk of corrections in highly valued asset markets, potential for a U.S. recession due to lagged effects of monetary tightening, and continued stress in CRE markets, particularly the office sector231233206 - Regulatory & Compliance Risks: Ongoing regulatory reforms (e.g., Basel III in the U.S.), potential for fines or business limitations if control weaknesses are not remediated, and risks from secondary sanctions related to Russia214216252 - Technology & Operational Risks: Risks from the Postbank IT migration, maturing the bank's data management strategy, and mitigating threats from outdated technology and cyber attacks239257523 Opportunities Opportunities for Deutsche Bank could emerge from macroeconomic conditions improving beyond current forecasts, which would boost revenues and improve the credit environment The bank may also benefit from resolving litigation on better-than-anticipated terms Geopolitical fragmentation creates opportunities to support clients in de-risking their supply chains, and favorable regulatory changes aimed at strengthening the EU's single market for financial services could further support the bank's strategy - Macroeconomic conditions improving beyond forecasts could lead to higher revenues and better credit quality204260 - The bank could benefit from helping clients manage exposures and de-risk supply chains amid geopolitical uncertainty204279 - Regulatory changes that strengthen the EU single market for financial services, such as updates to securitization frameworks, would be supportive of the Group's strategy280 Risk Information Key risk metrics remain robust, with detailed insights into Commercial Real Estate (CRE) exposures and IFRS 9 expected credit loss provisions Key Risk Metrics As of September 30, 2024, Deutsche Bank's key risk metrics remained robust The CET1 ratio stood at 13.8%, the leverage ratio was 4.6%, and the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) was 135% Risk-weighted assets (RWA) increased to €356.5 billion from €349.7 billion at year-end 2023, an increase driven primarily by market risk and credit risk Key Risk Ratios (as of Sep 30, 2024) | Metric | Value | Note | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | CET1 Ratio | 13.8% | Up from 13.7% at YE 2023 | | Leverage Ratio | 4.6% | Up from 4.5% at YE 2023 | | Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) | 135% | €60 bn surplus | | Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) | 122% | €112 bn surplus | - Risk-weighted assets (RWA) increased by €6.8 billion to €356.5 billion since year-end 2023, driven by a €4.5 billion increase in market risk RWA and a €4.0 billion increase in credit risk RWA306 - CET1 capital increased by €1.1 billion to €49.2 billion since year-end 2023, benefiting from the adoption of a temporary treatment for unrealized gains/losses and reductions in deferred tax assets309 Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Risk The Commercial Real Estate (CRE) market, particularly the U.S. office sector, continues to face headwinds from high interest rates and structural changes The bank's non-recourse CRE portfolio totaled €37.0 billion, of which a higher-risk subset of €29.9 billion is subject to bespoke stress testing Stage 2 and Stage 3 exposures have increased, reflecting market stress A stress test updated in Q2 2024 indicated potential incremental net provisions of approximately €0.5 billion over multiple years for this higher-risk portfolio CRE Portfolio Overview (as of Sep 30, 2024) | Portfolio | Gross Carrying Amount | | :--- | :--- | | Total Non-recourse CRE | €37.0 bn | | Stress-tested CRE (higher risk) | €29.9 bn | - The increase in Stage 2 and Stage 3 exposures reflects the ongoing stress in CRE markets, leading to more loans on watchlists, forbearance measures, and defaults294321 - A bespoke stress test on the higher-risk portfolio, based on Q2 2024 data, suggested potential incremental net provisions of approximately €0.5 billion over multiple years, after considering existing allowances302 IFRS 9 Impairment & Expected Credit Loss (ECL) The bank's total allowance for credit losses for financial assets at amortized cost was €5.6 billion as of September 30, 2024 Management overlays applied to the IFRS 9 model output increased to €108 million from €84 million at year-end 2023, mainly to account for a future model refinement related to refinancing risk Sensitivity analysis indicates that a one percentage point downward shift in GDP growth rates would increase Stage 1 and 2 ECL by €83.5 million The bank believes its ECL is adequately provided for Allowance for Credit Losses (as of Sep 30, 2024) | Financial Instrument Class | Allowance for Credit Losses | | :--- | :--- | | Amortized cost (on-balance) | €5,633 m | | Fair value through OCI | €37 m | | Off-balance sheet positions | €341 m | - Management overlays increased to €108 million, primarily driven by an overlay to bring forward expected impacts from a future model refinement related to refinancing risk355 - Sensitivity analysis shows a 1pp downward shift in GDP growth rates would increase Stage 1 and 2 ECL by €83.5 million, while a 0.5pp upward shift in unemployment rates would increase ECL by €45.9 million358379 Additional Information This section covers recent board changes, the report's basis of preparation, details on provisions and litigation, and non-GAAP financial measures Management and Supervisory Board There were several changes to the boards in 2024 Laura Padovani was appointed to the Management Board as Chief Compliance and Anti Financial Crime Officer, effective July 1, 2024 She succeeded Stefan Simon, who will now focus on his role as head of the Americas region In January, Florian Haggenmiller was appointed to the Supervisory Board - Laura Padovani was appointed to the Management Board as Chief Compliance and Anti Financial Crime Officer, effective July 1, 2024411 - Stefan Simon will focus on his role as Management Board member for the Americas region while retaining responsibility for Legal387 - Florian Haggenmiller was appointed as a new member of the Supervisory Board on January 16, 2024388 Basis of Preparation This unaudited report was prepared under IFRS as issued by the IASB, with the application of the EU carve-out version of IAS 39 for fair value macro hedge accounting of interest rate risk Effective Q1 2024, the bank implemented several presentational changes, including new client classifications in the Private Bank, new revenue sub-categories in the Investment Bank, and updated methodologies for allocating costs, capital, and operational risk RWA to the segments - The report is prepared under IFRS but applies the EU carve-out version of IAS 39 for portfolio hedges of interest rate risk, which impacts reported profit and regulatory capital391415 - Effective Q1 2024, the Private Bank realigned its reporting into two client sectors: 'Personal Banking' and 'Wealth Management & Private Banking'426 - Effective Q1 2024, the Investment Bank introduced new revenue sub-categories for 'Fixed Income & Currencies (FIC)' to provide more transparency448 - Methodologies for allocating infrastructure costs, tangible shareholders' equity, and operational risk RWA to business segments were updated in 2024450451452 Provisions and Litigation As of September 30, 2024, total provisions stood at €3.0 billion A key development was the Postbank takeover litigation, for which a €1.3 billion provision was recognized in Q2 Following settlements, €444 million of this was released in Q3, leaving a remaining provision of €547 million This development led to a decrease in contingent liabilities for civil litigation matters to €0.5 billion from €1.9 billion at year-end 2023 - Total provisions on the balance sheet were €3.0 billion as of September 30, 2024460 - For the Postbank takeover litigation, a provision of €1.3 billion was taken in Q2 2024 In Q3, €444 million was released due to settlements, with €547 million remaining461 - Contingent liabilities for civil litigation matters where a loss is more than remote but less than probable decreased to €0.5 billion, primarily due to the provisioning for the Postbank matter436 Non-GAAP Financial Measures The report utilizes several non-GAAP financial measures to provide a clearer view of the bank's operating performance These include adjusted costs (noninterest expenses excluding litigation, restructuring, and impairments), post-tax return on average tangible shareholders' equity (RoTE), and revenues excluding specific items like Debt Valuation Adjustment (DVA) The section provides detailed definitions and reconciliations for these measures, as well as for book value and tangible book value per share - Adjusted costs are defined as noninterest expenses excluding impairment of goodwill, net litigation charges, and restructuring/severance Q3 2024 adjusted costs were €5.0 billion512500 - The report provides detailed reconciliations for RoTE, both for the group and by segment, showing the adjustments from reported profit to calculate the ratio492494 - Book value per basic share outstanding was €33.96, and tangible book value per basic share outstanding was €30.57 as of September 30, 2024508509