Progressive(US:PGR)2025-10-15 12:40markdown [Executive Summary & Key Highlights](index=1&type=section&id=Executive%20Summary%20%26%20Key%20Highlights) [Monthly & Quarterly Financial Performance](index=1&type=section&id=Monthly%20%26%20Quarterly%20Financial%20Performance) The Progressive Corporation reported mixed financial results for September and the quarter ended September 30, 2025. While net premiums written and earned showed growth, net income for September significantly decreased compared to the prior year, though year-to-date net income increased September and Quarter Ended September 30, 2025 vs. 2024 Financial Highlights (millions) | Metric | September 2025 | September 2024 | September Change | Quarter 2025 | Quarter 2024 | Quarter Change | | :----------------------------------- | :------------- | :------------- | :--------------- | :----------- | :----------- | :------------- | | Net premiums written | $7,128 | $6,570 | 8 % | $21,384 | $19,455 | 10 % | | Net premiums earned | $6,827 | $6,263 | 9 % | $20,849 | $18,297 | 14 % | | Net income | $305 | $585 | (48) % | $2,615 | $2,334 | 12 % | | Per share available to common shareholders | $0.52 | $0.99 | (48) % | $4.45 | $3.97 | 12 % | | Combined ratio | 100.4 | 93.4 | 7.0 pts. | 89.5 | 89.0 | 0.5 pts. | [Policies in Force Overview](index=1&type=section&id=Policies%20in%20Force%20Overview) As of September 30, 2025, the company experienced a 12% increase in companywide policies in force compared to the prior year, driven primarily by strong growth in Personal Lines, particularly Direct – auto and Agency – auto Policies in Force as of September 30 (thousands) | Category | 2025 | 2024 | % Change | | :------------------ | :----- | :----- | :------- | | Personal Lines | | | | | Agency – auto | 10,630 | 9,415 | 13 | | Direct – auto | 15,619 | 13,388 | 17 | | Special lines | 6,980 | 6,475 | 8 | | Property | 3,651 | 3,460 | 6 | | Total Personal Lines | 36,880 | 32,738 | 13 | | Commercial Lines | 1,198 | 1,131 | 6 | | Companywide | 38,078 | 33,869 | 12 | [Detailed Financial Statements](index=2&type=section&id=Detailed%20Financial%20Statements) [Monthly Comprehensive Income Statement](index=2&type=section&id=Monthly%20Comprehensive%20Income%20Statement) For the month ended September 30, 2025, Progressive reported total revenues of $7,421 million, primarily driven by net premiums earned. Net income for the month was $305 million, with losses and loss adjustment expenses being the largest expense category Comprehensive Income Statement for the Month Ended September 30, 2025 (millions) | Category | Amount | | :---------------------------------- | :----- | | Net premiums written | $7,128 | | **Revenues:** | | | Net premiums earned | $6,827 | | Investment income | $311 | | Total net realized gains (losses) on securities | $138 | | Total revenues | $7,421 | | **Expenses:** | | | Losses and loss adjustment expenses | $4,492 | | Policy acquisition costs | $509 | | Other underwriting expenses | $1,005 | | Policyholder credit expense | $950 | | Total expenses | $7,029 | | Income before income taxes | $392 | | Net income | $305 | | Total comprehensive income (loss) | $273 | [Year-to-Date Comprehensive Income Statement](index=3&type=section&id=Year-to-Date%20Comprehensive%20Income%20Statement) Year-to-date through September 30, 2025, total revenues reached $64,925 million, a significant increase from $55,096 million in 2024. Net income for the period was $8,357 million, up from $6,124 million in the prior year, reflecting strong overall performance Comprehensive Income Statement for Year-to-Date Periods Ended September 30 (millions) | Category | 2025 | 2024 | | :---------------------------------- | :----- | :----- | | Net premiums written | $63,666 | $56,319 | | **Revenues:** | | | | Net premiums earned | $60,568 | $51,655 | | Investment income | $2,609 | $2,042 | | Total net realized gains (losses) on securities | $470 | $317 | | Total revenues | $64,925 | $55,096 | | **Expenses:** | | | | Losses and loss adjustment expenses | $39,854 | $36,077 | | Policy acquisition costs | $4,522 | $3,930 | | Other underwriting expenses | $8,423 | $6,781 | | Policyholder credit expense | $950 | $0 | | Total expenses | $54,384 | $47,350 | | Income before income taxes | $10,541 | $7,746 | | Net income | $8,357 | $6,124 | | Total comprehensive income (loss) | $9,969 | $7,585 | [Per Share & Investment Results](index=4&type=section&id=Per%20Share%20%26%20Investment%20Results) [Net Income & Comprehensive Income Per Share](index=4&type=section&id=Net%20Income%20%26%20Comprehensive%20Income%20Per%20Share) Diluted EPS for September 2025 was $0.52, a 48% decrease from September 2024. However, year-to-date diluted EPS significantly increased to $14.21 from $10.39 in 2024, reflecting improved overall profitability over the longer period Per Common Share Results (millions, except per share amounts) | Metric | September 2025 | Year-to-Date 2025 | Year-to-Date 2024 | | :------------------------------------------ | :------------- | :---------------- | :---------------- | | Net income available to common shareholders | $305 | $8,357 | $6,107 | | Per common share (Diluted) | $0.52 | $14.21 | $10.39 | | Comprehensive income (loss) attributable to common shareholders | $273 | $9,969 | $7,568 | | Per common share (Diluted) | $0.46 | $16.95 | $12.88 | | Total average equivalent common shares - Diluted | 588.2 | 588.1 | 587.7 | [Investment Performance](index=4&type=section&id=Investment%20Performance) The total investment portfolio achieved a 0.4% fully taxable equivalent (FTE) total return for September 2025 and 6.1% year-to-date. Common stocks showed strong monthly returns, while fixed-income securities contributed significantly to year-to-date returns Investment Results | Metric | September 2025 | Year-to-Date 2025 | Year-to-Date 2024 | | :-------------------------------- | :------------- | :---------------- | :---------------- | | **Fully taxable equivalent (FTE) total return:** | | | | | Fixed-income securities | 0.3% | 5.8% | 5.1% | | Common stocks | 3.6% | 13.8% | 20.3% | | Total portfolio | 0.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | | Pretax annualized investment income book yield | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.8% | [Supplemental Business Segment Information](index=5&type=section&id=Supplemental%20Business%20Segment%20Information) [Monthly Segment Performance](index=5&type=section&id=Monthly%20Segment%20Performance) For September 2025, Personal Lines showed strong growth in net premiums written (11%) and earned (11%), while Commercial Lines experienced a decrease in NPW (-7%) and NPE (-4%). The companywide combined ratio was 100.4, with Personal Lines vehicles showing ratios above 100, partly due to Florida policyholder credits Monthly Net Premiums Written & Earned by Segment (millions) | Segment | Net Premiums Written | % Growth in NPW | Net Premiums Earned | % Growth in NPE | | :-------------------- | :------------------- | :-------------- | :------------------ | :-------------- | | Personal Lines Total | $6,374 | 11% | $5,939 | 11% | | Commercial Lines | $753 | (7)% | $888 | (4)% | | Companywide Total | $7,128 | 8% | $6,827 | 9% | Monthly GAAP Ratios by Segment | Segment | Loss/LAE ratio | Expense ratio | Combined ratio | | :-------------------- | :------------- | :------------ | :------------- | | Personal Lines Vehicles Agency | 66.0 | 36.5 | 102.5 | | Personal Lines Vehicles Direct | 68.1 | 37.0 | 105.1 | | Personal Lines Property | 40.8 | 28.7 | 69.5 | | Personal Lines Total | 66.1 | 36.4 | 102.5 | | Commercial Lines | 63.6 | 23.0 | 86.6 | | Companywide Total | 65.7 | 34.7 | 100.4 | - The decrease in **Commercial Lines net premiums written** was primarily attributable to the **transportation network company (TNC) business**, driven by a **decrease in the monthly adjustment for projected mileage**[10](index=10&type=chunk) - **Florida policyholder credits** accounted for **17.8 points** in **Personal Lines vehicles agency channel** and **15.9 points** in the **Personal Lines vehicles direct channel**, significantly impacting their **expense and combined ratios**[10](index=10&type=chunk) [Year-to-Date Segment Performance](index=6&type=section&id=Year-to-Date%20Segment%20Performance) Year-to-date, Personal Lines demonstrated robust growth with a 16% increase in NPW and 20% in NPE. Commercial Lines NPW slightly decreased (-1%) but NPE grew by 3%. The companywide combined ratio improved to 87.3, indicating better underwriting profitability Year-to-Date Net Premiums Written & Earned by Segment (millions) | Segment | Net Premiums Written | % Growth in NPW | Net Premiums Earned | % Growth in NPE | | :-------------------- | :------------------- | :-------------- | :------------------ | :-------------- | | Personal Lines Total | $55,134 | 16% | $52,343 | 20% | | Commercial Lines | $8,530 | (1)% | $8,224 | 3% | | Companywide Total | $63,666 | 13% | $60,568 | 17% | Year-to-Date GAAP Ratios by Segment | Segment | Loss/LAE ratio | Expense ratio | Combined ratio | | :-------------------- | :------------- | :------------ | :------------- | | Personal Lines Vehicles Agency | 64.7 | 20.3 | 85.0 | | Personal Lines Vehicles Direct | 67.3 | 22.3 | 89.6 | | Personal Lines Property | 48.8 | 29.2 | 78.0 | | Personal Lines Total | 65.3 | 21.8 | 87.1 | | Commercial Lines | 67.3 | 20.5 | 87.8 | | Companywide Total | 65.7 | 21.6 | 87.3 | [Financial Position & Commentary](index=7&type=section&id=Financial%20Position%20%26%20Commentary) [Condensed GAAP Balance Sheet](index=7&type=section&id=Condensed%20GAAP%20Balance%20Sheet) As of September 30, 2025, total assets were $121,535 million, with total investments at $94,509 million. Shareholders' equity stood at $35,445 million, and the debt-to-total capital ratio was 16.3%, indicating a stable financial structure Condensed GAAP Balance Sheet as of September 30, 2025 (millions) | Category | Amount | | :------------------------------------------ | :------- | | Total investments | $94,509 | | Total assets | $121,535 | | Unearned premiums | $26,822 | | Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves | $42,105 | | Other liabilities | $10,267 | | Debt | $6,896 | | Total liabilities | $86,090 | | Shareholders' equity | $35,445 | | Total liabilities and shareholders' equity | $121,535 | | Book value per common share | $60.45 | | Trailing 12-month return on average common shareholders' equity (Net income) | 35.9 % | | Trailing 12-month return on average common shareholders' equity (Comprehensive income) | 37.1 % | | Debt-to-total capital ratio | 16.3 % | [Monthly Commentary (Florida Policyholder Credits)](index=8&type=section&id=Monthly%20Commentary) Progressive recorded a $950 million policyholder credit expense in September 2025, representing an estimate of profit exceeding the statutory limit for Florida personal auto insurance for the 2023-2025 period. Credits are expected to be provided to active policyholders by early 2026 - Progressive recorded a **$950 million policyholder credit expense** in **September 2025**, representing its current estimate of profit exceeding **Florida's statutory profit limit** for **personal auto insurance** over the **2023-2025 period**[15](index=15&type=chunk) - The estimated liability will be refined through **Q4 2025** and **Q1 2026**, considering factors like **storm activity** and **reserve development**[15](index=15&type=chunk) - Credits are expected to be provided in **early 2026** to approximately **2.7 million Florida personal auto policyholders** active at **December 31, 2025**[15](index=15&type=chunk) [Corporate Information & Disclosures](index=8&type=section&id=Corporate%20Information%20%26%20Disclosures) [Upcoming Events](index=8&type=section&id=Upcoming%20Events) Progressive has scheduled its third-quarter Investor Relations conference call for November 4, 2025, and plans to file its Form 10-Q on November 3, 2025. October results are expected to be released on November 19, 2025 - **Third quarter Investor Relations conference call** scheduled for **Tuesday, November 4, 2025**, at **9:30 a.m. eastern time**[16](index=16&type=chunk) - **Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q** with the SEC planned for filing on **Monday, November 3, 2025**[16](index=16&type=chunk) - **October results** planned for release on **Wednesday, November 19, 2025**, before the market opens[17](index=17&type=chunk) [About The Progressive Corporation](index=8&type=section&id=About%20Progressive) Progressive is a leading US insurer offering personal and commercial auto, home, motorcycle, boat, and RV insurance. Founded in 1937, it is the second-largest personal auto insurer and known for innovative shopping tools and customer convenience - Progressive offers insurance for **personal and commercial autos and trucks, motorcycles, boats, recreational vehicles, and homes**[18](index=18&type=chunk) - The company is the **second-largest personal auto insurer** in the country and a **leading seller of commercial auto, motorcycle, and boat insurance**[18](index=18&type=chunk) - **Founded in 1937**, Progressive provides shopping tools and services like **Name Your Price®**, **Snapshot®**, and **HomeQuote Explorer®** to save customers time and money[19](index=19&type=chunk) [Regulation FD & Safe Harbor Statement](index=9&type=section&id=Regulation%20FD%20Disclosure%20Outlets) The company uses its website and investor relations website for public dissemination of material information in compliance with Regulation FD. The report also includes a Safe Harbor Statement, cautioning investors about forward-looking statements and outlining various risks and uncertainties that could affect actual results - Progressive disseminates information to the public through its **corporate website (progressive.com)** and **investor relations website (investors.progressive.com)** to ensure broad, non-exclusionary distribution of material information in compliance with **Regulation FD**[20](index=20&type=chunk) - The report contains **forward-looking statements** that are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to **risks and uncertainties**, including the ability to **underwrite accurately**, establish **loss reserves**, and manage **severe weather impacts**[22](index=22&type=chunk)[25](index=25&type=chunk) - Investors are cautioned that reported results may be **volatile** in certain accounting periods due to the **timing of establishing reserves** for risks and adjustments from **regular reserve reviews**[24](index=24&type=chunk)