Industry Overview - The Zacks Property and Casualty Insurance (P&C) industry is expected to benefit from improved pricing, prudent underwriting, and exposure growth despite an increase in catastrophic events [1] - The industry includes companies providing commercial and personal property insurance, casualty insurance products, and services, with premiums being the primary revenue source [3] - The industry is currently facing a decline in pricing after several years of increases, with three interest rate cuts last year and potential further cuts this year [2] Trends and Projections - Global commercial insurance rates fell by 4% in Q2, but personal auto insurance is projected to remain strong, supported by better investment returns and reduced claims [4] - Deloitte estimates gross premiums to grow sixfold to $722 billion by 2030, with China and North America accounting for over two-thirds of the total [4] - Swiss Re predicts premium growth of 5% in 2025 and 4% in 2026 [4] Catastrophe Impact - The industry is vulnerable to catastrophe events, which can negatively impact underwriting profits; the 2025 hurricane season is expected to be above normal with 23 named storms [5] - Global insured losses from natural disasters in the first half of 2025 are estimated to be at least $100 billion [5] - The combined ratio is expected to improve from 2023 to 98.5% in 2025 but may deteriorate to 99% in 2026 [5] Mergers and Acquisitions - Consolidation in the P&C industry is anticipated to continue as companies seek to diversify operations and gain market share [6] Technology Adoption - The industry is increasingly adopting technologies such as blockchain, artificial intelligence, and advanced analytics to enhance operations and reduce costs [8] - Insurtechs are emerging, focusing on the P&C insurance sector, with significant investments in technology expected to improve efficiency [8] Industry Performance - The Zacks Property and Casualty Insurance industry ranks 92, placing it in the top 38% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating positive near-term prospects [9] - The industry has underperformed compared to its sector and the S&P 500, with a year-to-date increase of 4.7% compared to 9.8% for the sector and 6.9% for the S&P 500 [11] Valuation Metrics - The industry is currently trading at a trailing 12-month price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.53X, compared to the S&P 500's 8.5X and the sector's 4.27X [13] Company Highlights - Progressive Corporation is a major auto insurer with a Zacks Rank 2, expected to see 23.4% year-over-year earnings growth in 2025 [17][18] - Berkshire Hathaway, with a Zacks Rank 3, continues to benefit from its diverse operations and is expected to see a 5% increase in earnings for 2026 [21][23] - Chubb Limited, also a Zacks Rank 3, is focusing on middle-market businesses and cyber insurance, with an expected 18.9% growth in earnings for 2026 [25][26] - Travelers Companies, carrying a Zacks Rank 3, is well-positioned for growth with a projected 20.5% increase in earnings for 2026 [29][30] - Allstate, the third-largest P&C insurer, is expected to see earnings growth of 0.1% in 2025 and 22% in 2026, supported by rate increases and strategic acquisitions [32][33]

Core Insights - The Progressive Corporation (PGR) reported a second-quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $4.88, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 10.1% and reflecting an 84.1% year-over-year increase [1][8] - Operating revenues rose 19.5% year over year to $42.2 billion, driven by higher net premiums earned and significant increases in net investment income and service revenues [2] - The company achieved a net realized gain on securities of $387 million, a significant improvement from a loss of $127 million in the same quarter last year [3][8] Premiums and Policies - Net premiums written reached $20 billion, marking a 12% increase from $17.9 billion a year ago, while net premiums earned grew 18% to $20.3 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $20.1 billion [1][8] - Policies in force in the Personal Lines segment increased 16% year over year to 36.1 million, with notable growth in the Personal Auto segment [4] Financial Metrics - Progressive's book value per share was $55.62 as of June 30, 2025, up 39.5% from $39.85 a year earlier, and the return on equity improved to 43.6% from 40.2% [5] - The total debt-to-total capital ratio improved by 530 basis points to 17.5 [5] Expense Overview - Total expenses increased by 15.1% to $35.2 billion, driven by higher losses, policy acquisition costs, and other underwriting expenses [2]

Company Performance - Progressive reported quarterly earnings of $4.88 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.43 per share, and up from $2.65 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of +10.16% [1] - The company posted revenues of $21.62 billion for the quarter ended June 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.51%, and an increase from $18.26 billion year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Progressive has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times and topped consensus revenue estimates four times [2] Future Outlook - The sustainability of the stock's price movement will depend on management's commentary during the earnings call and the earnings outlook for the coming quarters [3][4] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $3.67 on revenues of $22.46 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $16.84 on revenues of $87.46 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Progressive was mixed ahead of the earnings release, resulting in a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) for the stock, indicating expected performance in line with the market [6] Industry Context - The Insurance - Property and Casualty industry, to which Progressive belongs, is currently in the top 31% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook compared to the bottom 50% [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors [5]

NEWS RELEASE The Progressive Corporation Company Contact: 300 North Commons Blvd. Douglas S. Constantine Mayfield Village, Ohio 44143 (440) 395-3707 http://www.progressive.com investor_relations@progressive.com PROGRESSIVE REPORTS JUNE RESULTS MAYFIELD VILLAGE, OHIO -- July 16, 2025 -- The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) today reported the following results for the month and quarter ended June 30, 2025: | (millions, except per share amounts and ratios; | | | | June | | | | | Quarter | | | --- | --- | --- ...

Core Insights - Progressive Corporation reported significant growth in net premiums written and earned for the quarter and year-to-date, indicating strong business performance and market demand [4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For the quarter ended June 30, 2025, net premiums written reached $6,605 million, a 15% increase from $5,749 million in 2024 [4]. - Net premiums earned for the same quarter were $6,954 million, up 20% from $5,777 million in 2024 [4]. - The company reported a net income of $1,124 million for the quarter, representing a 40% increase compared to $803 million in 2024 [4]. - Earnings per share available to common shareholders increased to $1.91, a 40% rise from $1.37 in 2024 [4]. - The total pretax net realized gains on securities were $179 million, compared to $22 million in 2024, indicating a significant improvement [4]. - The combined ratio for the quarter was 86.6, slightly up from 86.2 in 2024, but improved from 91.9 year-over-year [4]. Group 2: Policies in Force - As of June 30, 2025, the total number of personal lines policies in force was 36,126 thousand, a 16% increase from 31,192 thousand in 2024 [1]. - The agency auto policies increased to 10,423 thousand, up 16% from 8,965 thousand in 2024 [1]. - Direct auto policies rose to 15,245 thousand, reflecting a 21% increase from 12,576 thousand in 2024 [1]. - Special lines policies grew by 9% to 6,850 thousand from 6,312 thousand in 2024 [1]. - Property policies increased by 8% to 3,608 thousand from 3,339 thousand in 2024 [1]. - Commercial lines policies in force reached 1,189 thousand, a 6% increase from 1,118 thousand in 2024 [1].

Company Overview - Bow River Capital, a Denver-based alternative asset management firm, has completed the sale of Progressive Roofing to TopBuild Corp. for $810 million in an all-cash transaction [1] - Progressive Roofing, headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona, specializes in commercial roofing services, including re-roofing, maintenance, and new construction, primarily serving education, technology, industrial, healthcare, and government sectors [2] - Progressive Roofing has expanded its workforce to over 1,700 employees and completed three strategic acquisitions during its partnership with Bow River Capital [2][4] Growth and Development - Under Bow River Capital's partnership, Progressive Roofing invested in talent, technology, and operational excellence, enhancing its reputation as a leading commercial roofing contractor [2] - The company has a strong commitment to quality, customer service, culture, and safety, which has solidified its position as a national market leader in commercial roofing [3] Strategic Insights - TopBuild Corp. is well-positioned to support and build upon the strong foundation established by Progressive Roofing, leveraging its proven track record of growth [3] - Progressive Roofing's business philosophy emphasizes customer satisfaction, high quality, and a safety-first workplace environment, which aligns with TopBuild's core strengths [3][4] Industry Context - TopBuild Corp. is a leading installer and distributor of insulation and related building materials in the U.S. and Canada, with over 200 branches for insulation installation services and more than 150 branches for specialty distribution [6] - Bow River Capital focuses on investing in lower and middle markets across various asset classes, including industrial and infrastructure services, which aligns with the growth trajectory of companies like Progressive Roofing [5]

Core Insights - The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is anticipated to show improvements in both revenue and earnings for Q2 2025, with revenue expected to reach $21.5 billion, reflecting a 17.9% increase year-over-year [1][9] - The earnings consensus estimate is $4.30 per share, indicating a significant year-over-year growth of 62.3%, with a recent upward revision of 9.4% in the last 30 days [2][9] Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGR's second-quarter revenues is $21.5 billion, which represents a 17.9% growth from the previous year [1][9] - The consensus estimate for earnings per share is $4.30, with a year-over-year growth of 62.3% [2][9] Earnings Surprise History - Progressive has a history of beating earnings estimates, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 13.98% [3] Earnings Prediction Model - The earnings prediction model indicates a likely earnings beat for Progressive, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +2.41% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [4][5] Factors Influencing Q2 Results - Key factors expected to contribute to revenue growth include increased premiums, higher net investment income, and fees and service revenues [5][9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net premiums earned is $20.2 billion, driven by a strong product portfolio and retention rates [6] Business Segment Performance - The personal auto business is projected to benefit from competitive offerings and a strong market presence, with the consensus estimate for personal auto policies in force at 25.7 million [7] - A larger invested asset base is expected to enhance net investment income, estimated at $861 million, along with pretax net realized gains on securities pegged at $103.3 million [8] Expense Considerations - Higher loss and loss-adjustment expenses, policy acquisition costs, and other underwriting expenses are anticipated to increase overall expenses, with the consensus mark for the loss and loss-adjustment expense ratio at 69 [10] - The combined ratio is expected to improve, with a consensus mark of 89, benefiting from fewer catastrophic events and prudent underwriting practices [10]

Core Insights - The iShares U.S. Insurance ETF (IAK) offers broad exposure to the Financials - Insurance segment, appealing to both retail and institutional investors due to its low costs, transparency, flexibility, and tax efficiency [1][2] Fund Overview - IAK is a passively managed ETF launched on May 1, 2006, with assets exceeding $779.12 million, positioning it as an average-sized ETF in its category [3] - The fund aims to replicate the performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Select Insurance Index, which includes companies providing specialized financial services [4] Cost Structure - The annual operating expenses for IAK are 0.39%, which is competitive within its peer group, and it has a 12-month trailing dividend yield of 1.85% [5] Sector Exposure and Holdings - IAK is fully allocated to the Financials sector, with Progressive Corp (PGR) making up approximately 16.98% of total assets, followed by Chubb Ltd (CB) and Travelers Companies Inc (TRV) [6] - The top 10 holdings constitute about 66.91% of total assets under management [7] Performance Metrics - As of July 14, 2025, IAK has gained approximately 2.35% year-to-date and 13.53% over the past year, with a trading range between $115.29 and $138.47 in the last 52 weeks [8] - The ETF has a beta of 0.66 and a standard deviation of 18.05% over the trailing three-year period, indicating a medium risk profile [8] Alternatives - IAK holds a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting it is a viable option for investors seeking exposure to the Financials ETFs sector [9] - Other alternatives include Invesco KBW Property & Casualty Insurance ETF (KBWP) and SPDR S&P Insurance ETF (KIE), with respective assets of $471.58 million and $827.52 million [10]

Core Viewpoint - Progressive (PGR) is expected to report significant growth in earnings and revenues for the upcoming quarter, with analysts predicting earnings of $4.30 per share, a 62.3% increase year-over-year, and revenues of $21.52 billion, reflecting a 17.9% increase [1]. Earnings Projections - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 1.1% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a collective reevaluation by analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price movements [3]. Revenue and Key Metrics - Analysts forecast 'Service revenues' at $128.06 million, a year-over-year increase of 20.5% [5]. - 'Net premiums earned' are expected to be $20.19 billion, reflecting a 17.3% increase from the prior year [5]. - 'Investment income' is projected to reach $860.70 million, indicating a year-over-year change of 25.7% [5]. Expense and Combined Ratios - 'Net premiums earned - Commercial Lines' are estimated at $2.78 billion, a 4.3% year-over-year change [6]. - The 'Companywide Total - Expense ratio' is projected at 19.7%, up from 19.0% in the same quarter last year [6]. - The 'Companywide Total - Combined ratio' is expected to be 88.7%, compared to 91.9% a year ago [6]. Loss Ratios - The 'Companywide Total - Loss/LAE ratio' is forecasted to be 68.9%, down from 72.9% in the previous year [7]. - The 'Property Business - Combined ratio' is expected to reach 107.3%, significantly improved from 166.3% in the same quarter last year [7]. Business Segment Insights - The 'Commercial Lines Business - Combined ratio' is estimated at 89.9%, slightly higher than the year-ago figure of 88.6% [8]. - The 'Property Business - Loss/LAE ratio' is projected to be 78.3%, down from 137.4% a year ago [8]. - The 'Property Business - Expense ratio' is expected to be 29.0%, compared to 28.9% in the previous year [8]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, Progressive shares have declined by 7.1%, contrasting with the S&P 500 composite's increase of 4.1% [9].

Core Viewpoint - Progressive Corporation (PGR) is expected to report significant earnings growth for the second quarter, with analysts projecting earnings of $4.29 per share, up from $2.65 per share in the same period last year [1]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to report quarterly revenue of $20.36 billion, an increase from $17.9 billion a year earlier [1]. - In the first quarter, Progressive posted weaker-than-expected results [2]. Stock Performance and Analyst Ratings - Progressive shares fell 0.5% to close at $250.41 [3]. - Analyst ratings for PGR stock include: - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods maintained a Market Perform rating and raised the price target from $288 to $290 [8]. - UBS maintained a Neutral rating and cut the price target from $291 to $280 [8]. - Barclays maintained an Equal-Weight rating and reduced the price target from $297 to $287 [8]. - Wells Fargo maintained an Overweight rating and raised the price target from $328 to $333 [8]. - BMO Capital maintained an Outperform rating and increased the price target from $282 to $288 [8].