Powered by YES UBS Evidence Lab Basic Materials High CV thermal coal prices in AU (gNEWC) have fallen from ~$150/t in Oct to ~$130/t due to stable supply (Fig51) and softening demand (Fig53) with a warmer-thanexpected start to the winter resulting in elevated stock levels; we expect prices to remain range bound at $120-140/t in 2025, with upside driven by colder weather from La Nina or supply disruption from wet weather or surging gas prices, and downside from strong nuclear & gas output from JKT. API2 pric ...

Industry/Company Involved - **Industry**: Financial Services, specifically focusing on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and its impact on the economy. - **Company**: Not explicitly mentioned, but the analysis is centered around the Federal Reserve's actions and projections. Key Points and Arguments - **Fed Rate Cut Expectation**: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut its target policy range by another 25bp to 4.25-4.50% in December, bringing the cumulative reduction to 100bp since the easing cycle began in September [17]. - **Inflation Trends**: Inflation is projected to continue on a downward trajectory, with the median of the dot plot projecting four 25bp rate cuts in 2025 and one 25bp rate cut in 2026 [17]. - **Labor Market**: The labor market has cooled but remains stable, suggesting it is not weak enough to justify a larger easing of policy [19]. - **CPI Inflation**: The November CPI report showed further deceleration in housing-related inflation, particularly in shelter inflation [20]. - **FOMC Statement**: The FOMC statement is expected to remain unchanged, reflecting the expected 25bp reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate [32]. - **Economic Projections**: The updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEPs) show stronger growth in 2024, slower disinflation in 2025 and 2026, and fewer rate cuts in the appropriate policy path [44]. - **Rate Cut Projections**: The median member is expected to project 100bp of rate cuts in 2025 for a median policy rate of 3.4%, and only 25bp of further easing in 2026 to 3.1% [57]. - **Risks**: Risks skew in the direction of fewer cuts, including concerns about inflation, restrictive trade and immigration policies, and upward revisions to the longer run neutral rate [60]. - **Press Conference Expectations**: Chair Powell is expected to express confidence in disinflation and signal caution in moving to a neutral policy stance [82]. - **Balance Sheet Policies**: The ON RRP rate is expected to be reduced by 5bp, but no clear signal on the end of quantitative tightening (QT) [86]. Other Important Points - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has contracted from $8.9tn to $6.9tn since the start of quantitative tightening (QT) in June 2022 [87]. - The Fed's goal is to return to an "ample reserves" regime, where day-to-day fluctuations in liquidity demand do not show through to money market rates [102]. - The Fed could stop its balance sheet runoff with a slightly larger buffer for risk management reasons, or engage in temporary operations to smooth out the volatility in reserve balances [113].

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： December 11, 2024 08:57 PM GMT M Idea | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Company and Industry Overview * **Company**: Zhejiang Dingli Co Ltd. (603338.SS) * **Industry**: Aerial Work Platforms (AWP) manufacturing * **Focus**: The report discusses Dingli's business outlook, earnings visibility, and key developments in trade restrictions and market dynamics. Key Takeaways 1. Positive Outlook and Earnings Visibility * **Increased Confidence**: The report expresses increased confidence in Dingli's business outlook and earnings visibility into 2025E, based on positive feedback on order intakes and favorable trade investigation outcomes. * **Upside to Earnings Forecasts**: The report sees upside to its earnings forecasts due to strong order intakes, particularly during the Bauma China 2024 trade fair. * **Favorable Trade Investigation Outcomes**: The final results of the EU anti-dumping investigation and the US anti-dumping duty administrative review were more favorable than expected, benefiting Dingli's profitability. 2. Trade Restrictions and Tariffs * **US Tariffs**: The final US anti-dumping duty rate was reduced by approximately 20ppt, providing a buffer against potential tariff hikes and margin expansion opportunities. * **EU Tariffs**: The final EU anti-dumping duty rate was lower than the preliminary results and the lowest among all producers, benefiting Dingli's competitiveness. * **Response Plan**: Dingli has a response plan for potential additional US tariffs, including passing on the increased costs to customers and distributors. 3. Market Dynamics and Growth * **North America**: Dingli expects 2024E CMEC sales to exceed USD500mn and 2025E sales to see 20%+ growth, driven by market share expansion and increased sales of boom lifts. * **Europe**: Dingli expects 2024E Europe sales to decline by approximately 10% YoY but to see growth of +10% YoY in 2025E, driven by demand from electrification and replacement. * **Emerging Markets**: Dingli expects sales in emerging markets to double YoY in 2025E, driven by strong order intakes during the Bauma trade fair. * **China**: Dingli expects flat domestic sales in 2025E, driven by sluggish demand, but sees potential growth from differentiated new products in niche markets. 4. Capacity and Investment * **Boom Lifts**: Dingli's annual capacity for boom lifts is currently 7,000~8,000 units, with plans to increase capacity to 8,000~10,000 units next year. * **Scissor Lifts**: Dingli plans to roll out Phase VI capacity for scissor lifts in two years, with a total investment of Rmb1bn. 5. Investment Thesis and Risks * **Investment Thesis**: The report maintains a Buy rating on Dingli, based on its positive outlook, favorable trade investigation outcomes, and growth opportunities in key markets. * **Key Risks**: The report identifies several key risks, including weaker-than-expected construction activities globally, intensifying competition in the Chinese AWP market, and potential trade tensions between the US and China. Conclusion The report presents a positive outlook for Zhejiang Dingli Co Ltd., highlighting its strong order intakes, favorable trade investigation outcomes, and growth opportunities in key markets. However, the report also identifies several key risks that could impact Dingli's performance.

Company-Specific Information * **Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co. (300124.SZ)**: The focus of the report is on Shenzhen Inovance Technology, a domestic leader in industrial automation. * **Nov IA order growth**: Inovance's industrial automation segment orders grew by 10% year-over-year (yoy) in November 2024, similar to the growth seen in October. * **Order breakdown**: The growth was driven by various end-markets including electric construction machinery, wind power, process industries, non-ferrous metal, air conditioners, rubber & plastics, etc. Battery orders remained positive yoy, while solar orders were negative yoy. * **EV components**: EV components orders continued to grow robustly in November. * **Comparison with peers**: Inovance's order growth was compared with other industrial automation peers, suggesting that the growth was more due to company-specific factors rather than a broad-based industry inflection. * **Investment thesis**: Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating on Inovance, citing its strong growth outlook driven by factors such as overseas market opportunities, potential market share gains in small/large PLC, EV component growth, and digitalization business development. * **Competitive advantages**: Inovance's competitive advantages include industry-leading R&D effectiveness and a comprehensive product portfolio with strong customer switching costs. * **Valuation**: Goldman Sachs' 12-month target price for Inovance is Rmb61.1, based on a 25x 2026E PE. Industry Information * **Industrial automation market**: The report discusses the industrial automation market, highlighting factors such as the growth in orders for various end-markets and the increasing demand for EV components. * **Comparison with peers**: The report compares Inovance's order growth with other industrial automation peers, providing insights into the company's relative performance. * **Supply chain dynamics**: The report mentions the ongoing destocking in Siemens' supply chain in China and the expectation of inventory normalization into 2QFY25. * **Overall market sentiment**: The report provides an overview of the overall market sentiment in the industrial automation sector, highlighting factors such as the growth in orders and the increasing demand for EV components.

Key Points Industry Overview * **Global Property Index**: The Global Property Index rose 2.5% in November and is up 8.7% YTD (in USD). * **Regional Performance**: Americas (+5.1%) and Middle East & Africa (+1.8%) saw positive returns in November, while Europe/UK (-1.8%) and Asia Pacific (-2.1%) were down. * **Global Property Hunter**: Citi Research's Global Property Hunter includes ~540 global property companies across 40 countries, providing data on analyst ratings, performance, valuations, earnings growth forecasts, and balance sheet ratios. Regional Performance * **Americas**: The Americas region saw the strongest returns in November, with a 5.1% increase. * **Middle East & Africa**: The Middle East & Africa region also saw positive returns, with a 1.8% increase. * **Europe/UK**: Europe/UK experienced negative returns, with a 1.8% decrease in November. * **Asia Pacific**: Asia Pacific saw the largest decline, with a 2.1% decrease in November. Key Companies and Metrics * **Prologis**: Prologis was highlighted as a large-cap property stock with a strong market cap and positive returns. * **American Tower**: American Tower was another large-cap property stock with significant market cap and positive returns. * **Equinix**: Equinix was highlighted as a large-cap property stock with strong market cap and positive returns. * **Marriott International**: Marriott International was mentioned as a large-cap property stock with positive returns. * **Simon Property Group**: Simon Property Group was highlighted as a large-cap property stock with positive returns. Valuation and Growth * **NAV Premium/Discount**: The NAV premium/discount by region was provided, showing variations across different regions. * **FFO Growth**: FFO growth by region was discussed, highlighting growth expectations for different regions. Other Important Points * **Data Sources**: The Global Property Hunter uses data from various sources, including Citi Research estimates and consensus estimates from Reuters. * **Conflicts of Interest**: Citi Research discloses potential conflicts of interest related to the Firm's business activities with companies covered in the research reports. References * [doc id='1'] * [doc id='5'] * [doc id='6'] * [doc id='7'] * [doc id='10'] * [doc id='11'] * [doc id='12'] * [doc id='13'] * [doc id='14'] * [doc id='15'] * [doc id='16'] * [doc id='17'] * [doc id='18'] * [doc id='19'] * [doc id='20'] * [doc id='21'] * [doc id='22'] * [doc id='23'] * [doc id='24'] * [doc id='25'] * [doc id='26'] * [doc id='27'] * [doc id='28'] * [doc id='29'] * [doc id='30'] * [doc id='31'] * [doc id='32'] * [doc id='33'] * [doc id='34'] * [doc id='35'] * [doc id='36'] * [doc id='37'] * [doc id='38'] * [doc id='39'] * [doc id='40'] * [doc id='41'] * [doc id='42'] * [doc id='43'] * [doc id='44'] * [doc id='45'] * [doc id='46'] * [doc id='47'] * [doc id='48'] * [doc id='49'] * [doc id='50'] * [doc id='51'] * [doc id='52'] * [doc id='53'] * [doc id='54'] * [doc id='55'] * [doc id='56'] * [doc id='57'] * [doc id='58'] * [doc id='59'] * [doc id='60'] * [doc id='61'] * [doc id='62'] * [doc id='63'] * [doc id='64'] * [doc id='65'] * [doc id='66'] * [doc id='67'] * [doc id='68'] * [doc id='69'] * [doc id='70'] * [doc id='71'] * [doc id='72'] * [doc id='73'] * [doc id='74'] * [doc id='75'] * [doc id='76'] * [doc id='77'] * [doc id='78'] * [doc id='79']

J P M O R G A N Global Commodities The Week in Commodities Global Commodities Research 29 November 2024 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 2Q25 Asia IG Current/YTD Base Bull Base Bear Spread Forecast 78 80 70 93 135 Excess Return Forecast 0.3% 1.2% 0.0% -2.3% Total Return Forecast 6.1% 10.4% 9.2% 6.9% 4Q25 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research forecasts shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： M Foundation 2025 Asia Credit Outlook | Asia Pacific November 27, 2024 10:03 AM GMT The End of Spread Compress ...

Industry and Company Overview * **Industry**: Greater China Technology Semiconductors * **Focus**: Analysis of GigaDevice MCU's spot price in the channel market versus MCU companies' share prices * **Key Company**: GigaDevice Semiconductor Beijing Inc (603986.SS) Key Points and Arguments * **Spot Price vs. Share Prices**: GigaDevice's MCU spot price has a significant impact on Greater China MCU companies' share prices. While the spot market price accounts for less than 10% of the total MCU market, it serves as a good sentiment indicator [4]. * **Preliminary Nov-24 Pricing**: The preliminary Nov-24 pricing for GigaDevice's MCU spot price is flat month-over-month (M/M) [1]. * **Performance Comparison**: The exhibit shows a comparison between GigaDevice's MCU spot price and the share price performance of Greater China MCU companies. The exhibit indicates a correlation between the two [3]. * **Data Source**: The data for GigaDevice's MCU spot price is sourced from BOM.ai, while the share price data is from Refinitiv [4]. Additional Important Content * **Analyst Team**: The report is authored by Daniel Yen, CFA, Charlie Chan, Equity Analyst, and Ray Wu, CFA, Equity Analyst, among others [5]. * **Industry View**: Morgan Stanley's industry view for Greater China Technology Semiconductors is in-line [6]. * **Stock Ratings**: The report provides stock ratings for various companies within the Greater China Technology Semiconductors industry [17, 20]. * **Global Stock Ratings Distribution**: The report includes a distribution of stock ratings across the coverage universe [9]. * **Analyst Stock Ratings**: The report defines the different stock rating categories used by Morgan Stanley [10]. * **Analyst Industry Views**: The report explains the different industry view categories used by Morgan Stanley [11]. * **Important Disclosures**: The report includes various important disclosures regarding the research process, conflicts of interest, and other relevant information [13-16].

Xiaomi (1810) Overweight 1810.HK, 1810 HK EV momentum stronger; Core earnings resilient, with some uptick in hardware GMs; raise PT to HK$34 Xiaomi's 3Q earnings momentum continues to remain strong, with core revenues growing 17% YoY, and EV losses also narrowing. Key highlights were: (1) EV targets for 2024 raised to 130k units, on stronger execution and continued demand, (2) IoT GMs continue to see upside, helping to drive segment GM above 20% for the first time, and (3) Continued strong growth in premium ...