Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the energy sector, highlighting stability in traditional energy sources while signaling potential oversupply in new energy sectors [1]. Core Insights - The electricity industry is experiencing a decline in growth rates across all major sectors, with traditional coal-fired power remaining dominant but facing significant challenges [2][3]. - Renewable energy sources, particularly solar and wind, continue to show high growth rates, but the solar sector is facing operational pressures due to overcapacity [2][3][5]. - The profitability of coal-fired power companies is improving, while clean energy companies, especially in solar, are struggling with losses [2][3][5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - National electricity generation is projected to grow by 5.2% in 2023 and 4.6% in 2024, with coal power growth declining to 1.5% in 2024, the lowest among all types [5][9]. - Solar and wind energy are expected to grow at rates of 28.2% and 11.1% respectively in 2024, while hydropower is recovering with a 10.7% increase [5][9]. Coal Power - The profitability of coal-fired power companies is closely tied to coal prices, with a projected increase in demand from the chemical sector [20][24]. - The report anticipates a modest recovery in coal demand in 2025, driven by economic stabilization [25][26]. Hydropower and Nuclear Power - Hydropower is expected to maintain stable growth, with significant improvements in profitability and operational efficiency [30][34]. - Nuclear power is set to expand significantly, with a projected increase in installed capacity and generation output [35][41]. Wind Power - The wind power sector is facing declining profitability due to falling prices for equipment and components, despite maintaining growth in generation capacity [42][44]. - The report suggests that industry self-regulation may help improve the financial health of wind power companies [46]. Solar Power - The solar industry is experiencing a significant downturn in profitability, with a projected decline in both revenue and profit margins due to overcapacity and competitive pressures [48][50]. - Despite impressive growth in installed capacity, the actual generation from solar power remains low, indicating inefficiencies in utilization [53][54].

Core Insights - Guiyang Rural Commercial Bank (GRCB) is the largest rural commercial bank in Guiyang, with all top ten shareholders being state-owned or state-controlled entities, indicating a strong government backing [1][3] - The bank has a high concentration of credit risk due to significant exposure to local government financing vehicles and related party transactions, particularly in infrastructure projects [1][9] - GRCB's return on equity (ROE) is relatively acceptable compared to peers, but its capital adequacy ratios are below average, indicating a need for capital replenishment [1][18] Section Summaries Basic Overview - GRCB was established on December 23, 2011, and is headquartered in Guiyang, Guizhou Province, covering all cities and states in the province with 13 primary branches and 85 secondary branches [3] Regional Situation - Guizhou Province's GDP was 20,913.25 billion, ranking 22nd nationally, with a growth rate of 4.9% [11] - The province has invested heavily in infrastructure since 2010, but the growth in road mileage has not translated into increased passenger traffic, indicating potential inefficiencies in economic development [11][12] Peer Comparison - GRCB's asset scale is between Foshan Rural Commercial Bank and Cixi Rural Commercial Bank, with a notable ROE but higher non-performing loan rates compared to peers [18] - Among regional banks, GRCB has the highest proportion of state-owned shares, with a capital structure that may provide stability but also indicates reliance on government support [19] Operational and Financial Overview - As of June 2024, GRCB's total assets reached 1,633.22 billion, with loans and advances making up 62.78% of total assets, reflecting a significant growth in lending activities [23][24] - The bank's financial investments have also increased, but the proportion of these investments relative to total assets has declined in recent years, indicating a shift in asset allocation [23]

2024 年 8 月 26 日 金融租赁梳理：回归"融物本源"，个体资质差异或加大 金融租赁行业深度 年初国家金融监督管理总局发布《金融租赁公司管理办法（征求意见稿）》，与12号 文及8号文一脉相承，突出金融租赁公司"融物"的功能，而城投"类信贷"的业务模式势 必将面临压缩，弱资质的资产可能还面临降息、展期等，进而影响金租公司的盈利与资产 质量。另一方面，城投资产的压缩必然要求金租公司加快转型，聚焦非城投行业。而根据 最新发布的鼓励清单，重点领域包括航空、航运、医疗、工业设备、新能源等，但上述领 域信用风险识别和防范的要求显著高于城投，对个体的风险控制能力提出了新的挑战，各 个主体需要结合自身能力与资源禀赋进行探索，信用资质的差距会随着时间推移逐步显现。 近几年我国金融租赁行业继续平稳发展，2023年末总资产规模达4.18万亿元，同比增 长10.49%；租赁资产余额3.97万亿元，同比增长9.27%；直接租赁业务投放2814.87亿元， 同比增长63.39%，占租赁业务投放总额的16.42%，同比上升4.31个百分点。 我们对重点金租进行梳理，在关键指标上：（1）2023年末浦银金租、国银金租和浙银 金租财务 ...

胜遇研究 ——养猪企业中报点评 熬过周期的二师兄们 截至目前，主要上市猪企2024年上半年业绩已披露完毕，受行业产能去化带来供需关系改善影响，生 猪价格持续上涨，主要上市公司的经营状况在二季度出现了明显的向好态势，大多数均实现了扭亏为盈， 行业基本面发生了明显的变化。 从价格与销量来看，主要上市猪企的销售均价与行业走势基本趋同，但天邦食品、新希望、温氏股份 等企业提价速度显著更快，销量方面，除正邦科技因重组事项导致公司正处在逐步复工复产，产能尚未完 全恢复的阶段，生猪销量累计同比下降45.11%外，其他猪企基本是稳中有升的态势，其中神农集团累计销 量同比上升60.15%，实现量价齐升的局面。从月度销售来看，牧原股份在猪价上行过程中销售数量呈现明 显的上行态势，而其他猪企月度表现整体平稳，但类似新希望、温氏股份却逐月有所下滑，这也是略显意 外。 从财务表现来看，2024年上半年主要企业整体营收、净利润增速喜忧参半，但二季度主要企业营收与 净利润均出现了较大幅度的增长，除正邦科技外均扭亏为盈，均实现了超过100.00%的同比增幅，经营状况 显著改善。此外，主要企业的毛利率、净利率整体环比改善幅度也不小。现金流方面 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the bankruptcy restructuring of Jiangsu Delong Group, which includes four companies, and its significant impact on Xiamen Xiangyu Group's financials and operations [3][4][13] - Xiamen Xiangyu plans to acquire debts owed by Jiangsu Delong Group, which includes receivables from various subsidiaries, indicating a strategic move to safeguard its interests amid the bankruptcy proceedings [4][7][13] Summary by Sections Bankruptcy Proceedings - Jiangsu Delong Group's bankruptcy was initiated by four companies under the local finance bureau, with the court currently reviewing the cases [3] - The complexity of the legal relationships and the number of creditors involved suggest a significant regional impact [3] Financial Implications for Xiamen Xiangyu - Xiamen Xiangyu reported sales to Jiangsu Delong Nickel Industry amounting to 7.109 billion yuan in 2023, representing 1.55% of its total revenue, and 13.716 billion yuan to Jiangsu Delong Stainless Steel Foundry in 2022, accounting for 2.55% of its revenue [4] - The total receivables from Jiangsu Delong Group are substantial, with Xiamen Xiangyu's accounts receivable at 19.417 billion yuan as of March 2024, although specific details on the largest customers were not disclosed [4] Related Transactions and Partnerships - Xiamen Xiangyu has engaged in multiple procurement contracts with Jiangsu Delong Group, totaling over 6 billion yuan, with prepayments to Jiangsu Delong Group constituting 20.93% of its total prepayments as of the end of 2023 [4][7] - The OSS companies, which are part of Xiamen Xiangyu's operations, have significant procurement ties with Jiangsu Delong, with purchases amounting to 20.222 billion yuan in 2022 and 11.978 billion yuan in 2023 [7] Market Context and Future Outlook - The report notes that the integrated stainless steel project in Indonesia, operated by OSS, is a key international investment for Xiamen Xiangyu and is expected to continue despite Jiangsu Delong's bankruptcy [7] - The financial health of Jiangsu Delong Group is under scrutiny, with indications of significant losses and operational challenges, which could affect Xiamen Xiangyu's financial exposure [9][10]

引言： 胜遇研究 产业转型初见成效，基本面发展几何 徐州市是江苏省辖地级市、省域副中心城市、全国性综合交通枢纽、淮海经济区中心 城市，下辖 5个市辖区、3个县，代管 2个县级市。作为苏北经济体量最大的地级市，在经 济、财政、债务方面的表现如何？作为典型的资源枯竭性城市，徐州产业转型起步较早， 目前产业发展如何？在城投一揽子化债背景下，区域内城投平台、融资环境及政府债务管 控效果如何？本文将通过与江苏省内地级市作对比以及拉长时间维度研究徐州市经济产业 情况，并重点分析产业结构占比较高的工业、建筑业、房地产业、批发和零售业、交通运 输、仓储和邮政业以及金融业，通过产业规模、增速等，结合区域发展定位规划，对比分 析产业发展情况，此外，从政府财政实力、债务规模、结构分布、风险事件及管控情况、 城投平台、债市表现等方面对徐州基本面进行深度探讨。 丝路海洋 Belt & Road .com 徐州市是江苏省辖地级市、省域副中心城市,国务院批复确定的国家历史文化名城、 全国性綜合交通枢纽、淮海经济区中心城市，地处华北平原东南部、江苏西北部，京杭大 运河穿境而过，陇海铁路、京沪铁路两大干线在此交汇，素有"五省通衢"之称。截至 ...

2024 年 5 月 20 日 1 短端利率大幅下行，资金面边际转松 胜遇利率周报 本周 DR007 运行在 1.80-1.84%的区间，DR001 运行在 1.71-1.77%区间，均 在周三后出现了较为明显的下行。本周央行开展了 100 亿元 7 天期逆回购和 1250 亿元 1 年期 MLF 操作，因本周有 100 亿元逆回购及 1250 亿元 MLF 到期，全周 全口径完全对冲到期量。 图 银行间债券回购利率（日,%） 3.0000 0.0000 0.5000 1.0000 1.5000 2.0000 2.5000 DR001 DR007 数据来源：Wind、胜遇研究团队整理 本周利率债短端收益率出现较大幅度下行，长端收益率在下行后有所回升， 此后再次出现下行。国债方面，1 年期和 3 年期分别下行 9bp 和 8bp，5 年期下 行 4bp，7 年期及 10 年期变化不大；国开债除 1 年期下行 9bp 以外，其余各期限 小幅下行 1-2bp。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--- ...

2024 年 6 月 3 日 本周 DR007 运行在 1.86-1.91%的区间，DR001 运行在 1.73-1.84%区间， DR001 在周一至周三出现显著上行，随后有所震荡，DR007 则在维持在较高水 平之后于周五有所回落。本周央行开展了 6140 亿元 7 天期逆回购，因本周有 100 亿元逆回购到期，全周实现净投放 6040 亿元。 数据来源：Wind、胜遇研究团队整理 表 国债国开债变动情况 5 月 31 日，国债 10-1Y期限利差为 64.82bp，国开 10-1Y 期限利差为 57.69bp， 较 5 月 24 日的 67.59bp 和 57.88bp 分别收窄 2.77bp 和 0.19bp。 数据来源：Wind、胜遇研究团队整理 4 胜遇利率周报 3.0000 0.0000 0.5000 1.0000 1.5000 2.0000 2.5000 DR001 DR007 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------|-------|-------|-- ...

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14 胜遇研究 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|------------------------|----------|-----------|------------------| | | 投资品种 | 2023年末 | 2022年末 | 2023年末同比变化 | | | 债券投资 | 238. 50 | 119. 02 | 100. 39% | | | 同业存单 | 27.86 | 23.93 | 16. 42% | | 交易性金融资产 | 基金投资 | 547. 04 | 640. 86 | -14. 64% | | | 权益投资 | 40. 21 | 39.75 | 1. 16% | | | 信托计划和资产管理计划 | 756. 96 | 381. 86 | 98. 23% | | | 合计 | 1610. 58 | 1205. 42 | 33.61% | | | 债券投资 | 2537. 03 | 2026. 75 | 25. 18% | | | 同业存单 | 1. 43 | 19. 63 | -92 ...