14 胜遇研究 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|------------------------|----------|-----------|------------------| | | 投资品种 | 2023年末 | 2022年末 | 2023年末同比变化 | | | 债券投资 | 238. 50 | 119. 02 | 100. 39% | | | 同业存单 | 27.86 | 23.93 | 16. 42% | | 交易性金融资产 | 基金投资 | 547. 04 | 640. 86 | -14. 64% | | | 权益投资 | 40. 21 | 39.75 | 1. 16% | | | 信托计划和资产管理计划 | 756. 96 | 381. 86 | 98. 23% | | | 合计 | 1610. 58 | 1205. 42 | 33.61% | | | 债券投资 | 2537. 03 | 2026. 75 | 25. 18% | | | 同业存单 | 1. 43 | 19. 63 | -92 ...

图 商票逾期城投主体省份分布情况（单位：家） 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 山 东 省 云 南 省 陕 西 省 贵 州 省 河 南 省 江 苏 省 湖 北 省 浙 江 省 2 18家发债主体子公司中，涉及发债城投主体5家，金融主体2家；产业主体11家，其中 地方国有企业和中央国有企业7家，具体情况如下。 数据来源：上海票交所、企业预警通、胜遇研究团队整理 截至2024年4月12日，785家涉及票据逾期的债券发行人中已有58家主体（包含发债主 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------|---------------------| | \n广东省电力线路器材厂有限公司 | 中国能源建设股份有限公司 | 胜遇研究 \n建筑施工 | | 哈尔滨第一机械集团有限公司 | 中国兵器工业集团有限公司 | 机械 | | 德阳广大东汽新材料有限公司 | 张家港广大特材股份有限公司 | 金属 | | 上海自动化仪表有限公司 | 上海电气控股集团有限公 ...

Core Views - The report suggests that Longfor Group will face no debt repayment pressure in 2024, with cautious optimism for 2025, while 2026 and beyond will require close monitoring of monthly sales data and market sentiment [1] - Longfor's land reserves are concentrated in first-tier and strong second-tier cities, with 82.80% of its total land reserves located in these areas as of the end of 2023 [1] - The company's average land cost decreased to 4,705 yuan per square meter by the end of 2023, the lowest in five years, highlighting its gross margin advantage in sales [1] Land Reserves and Sales - Longfor's land reserves in Yantai account for over 20% of its total, making it the largest project reserve city, but the rapid cooling of the property market in Yantai since September 2023 has increased the pressure on inventory turnover [1] - The top 20 cities contributed an average of 76.03% of Longfor's sales over the past three years, with Chengdu, Hangzhou, Hefei, Chongqing, Beijing, Wuhan, and Xi'an being the key contributors [1] - In 2023, Longfor's sales in Hangzhou, Jinan, Shenyang, and Nanjing dropped by over 40%, adding significant pressure to its operations [1] Debt and Financials - Longfor has repaid a total of 180.23 billion yuan in domestic credit bonds and ABS from 2023 to February 2024, and successfully issued 3.3 billion yuan in medium-term notes guaranteed by China Bond Insurance [8] - The company's short-term interest-bearing debt is relatively low, and under extreme stress tests, Longfor is expected to have no difficulty repaying its 2024 debt [2] - Longfor's gross margin and net margin have declined but remain among the best in the industry, with a gross margin of 16.90% in 2023 [109] Commercial Real Estate - Longfor's commercial real estate business, primarily consisting of shopping malls and rental housing, generated 129.40 billion yuan in revenue in 2023, an 8.90% year-on-year increase [64] - The rental income from shopping malls accounted for over 75% of the total commercial real estate revenue, with a stable occupancy rate of 96.20% by the end of 2023 [64] - The company plans to open 8 new shopping malls in 2024, with a total construction area of 1.0968 million square meters, which is expected to support future financing [71] Sales Performance - Longfor's contracted sales in 2023 were 173.49 billion yuan, a 13.94% year-on-year decrease, with a sales area of 10.796 million square meters, down 17.25% [42] - The top 5 cities contributing to sales in 2023 were Chengdu, Xi'an, Beijing, Hefei, and Suzhou, accounting for 37.75% of total sales [34] - Sales in Chengdu, Xi'an, Beijing, Suzhou, and Tianjin increased by over 20% in 2023, while Hangzhou, Jinan, Shenyang, and Nanjing saw significant declines [34] Land Acquisition - Longfor acquired 30 and 31 land parcels in 2022 and 2023, respectively, with total land acquisition costs of 24.359 billion yuan and 25.046 billion yuan [59] - The company focused on acquiring land in cities with strong inventory turnover, such as Chengdu, Hefei, Xi'an, Suzhou, and Jinan [50] - The average land acquisition cost in 2023 was 1.22 million yuan per square meter, with Chengdu, Hefei, and Xi'an being the top cities in terms of land acquisition [62] Inventory Turnover - The inventory turnover cycle in Yantai is estimated to be 53.18 years in 2023, indicating significant pressure on inventory turnover [14] - Cities like Yancheng and Zhuhai have inventory turnover cycles exceeding 10 years, with Yancheng at 32.51 years and Zhuhai at 12.93 years [53] - The top 20 core sales cities have an average inventory turnover cycle of only 2.67 years, indicating a strong need for restocking [38]

Performance Overview - Vanke's operating revenue decreased by 7.56% to CNY 465.74 billion in 2023, with a gross margin decline of 4.32 percentage points to 15.23%[5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 46.39% to CNY 12.16 billion, while the net profit after excluding non-recurring items fell by 50.62% to CNY 9.79 billion[5] - The weighted average return on equity decreased by 4.57 percentage points to 4.91%[5] Debt Analysis - Vanke's total interest-bearing debt reached CNY 320.05 billion, accounting for 21.3% of total assets, with short-term debt at CNY 62.42 billion (19.5%) and long-term debt at CNY 257.63 billion (80.5%)[4] - The net debt ratio increased by 11.05 percentage points to 54.66%, indicating a growing leverage concern[5] - Interest expenses rose by 18.44% to CNY 14.26 billion despite only a 1.89% increase in interest-bearing debt[7] Sales and Inventory - Vanke's sales volume decreased by 9.8% to CNY 37.61 billion in 2023, following a 33.6% drop in 2022[9] - The total inventory value declined from CNY 1,075.62 billion in 2021 to CNY 701.70 billion in 2023, with a significant drop in construction and planned development products[14] Cost Control Measures - Vanke's management voluntarily waived bonuses, resulting in a 76.4% reduction in total compensation for senior executives to CNY 7.66 million[17] - The company reported a 16.8% decrease in employee compensation and benefits to CNY 16.99 billion[18] Future Outlook - Vanke plans to reduce interest-bearing debt by CNY 100 billion over the next two years and is exploring new financing tools[8] - The company aims to enhance cash flow through asset sales, targeting over CNY 30 billion in returns from large transactions[28]

胜遇研究 边际改善，持续几何？ 钢铁行业跟踪与展望 粗钢产量结束两年负增长后实现微增，需求端基建已经摆脱疫情影响，但大幅增长面 临债务的约束，其更可能是钢铁需求端的托底而非刺激，且更多需要中央发力，制造业投 资增速的回暖是钢铁有利的一面，其内部虽有差异，但不乏汽车、船舶这类的亮点，未来 制造业有望贡献更多。但钢铁需求的最大变量仍在地产，若销售迟迟无法回暖，新开工和 施工面积仍难以表现，那么地产这一负面冲击仍将持续。 从行业财务表现来看，钢铁行业在2022年大幅恶化后，2023年边际向好，利润改善明 显，但仍处于历史较低水平。考虑到下游房地产的情况，盈利改善的持续性则有待观察。 此外，亏损企业占比虽有所下降但仍处于较高水平，行业负债率仍有提升，现金流也有待 改善。 债券市场方面，钢铁行业融资情况有所好转，融资缺口持续收窄。从到期压力来看， 约40%的债券在年内到期，时间分布相对均匀。二级市场信用利差显著收窄，“弱资质” 主体收益率也随市场趋势性下行。个体层面，个别主体仍存在收入下滑、现金流表现不佳、 债务负担偏重、到期债券占比偏高、短期偿债指标偏弱等压力。考虑到钢铁企业盈利边际 改善的情况，以及再融资能力，行业 ...

PMI总读数小幅抬升，多数分项仍收缩 9月PMI数据点评 【数据】 中国 9 月官方制造业 PMI 为 50.1，前值 49.4。 中国 9 月官方非制造业 PMI 为 50.6，前值 52.6。 【点评】 8 月国内疫情散点式发酵，且极端天气给生产、生活带来较大影响，9 月基 本面略有改善，制造业 PMI 回升 0.4 个百分点，重新站上荣枯线。不同规模企业 PMI 表现趋同，前期回暖最为明显的大、中型企业小幅回暖，其中大型企业本月 继续停留扩张区间，小规模企业仍位于荣枯线以下呈收缩态势，大中小企业 PMI 分别录得 51.1、49.7、48.3，较前月分别回升 0.6、0.8、0.7 个百分点。从制 造业 PMI 各分项上看多有小幅修复。 具体来看： 回顾 9 月份，全国分散化的疫情及极端天气带来的负面影响逐渐减弱，需求 不足的问题虽未能有效解决，但供给有所向好。9 月 PMI 生产指数为 51.5，前月 提升 1.7pct，显示制造业生产活动终于重回"活跃"状态。前期受到压制的需 求继续释放，但绝对水平仍处收缩区间，整体不强。9月PMI新订单指数录得49.8， 较上月回升 0.6 个百分点，仍难以重回 ...