纽约 - 18. Juni 2024 - KKR，作为全球领先的投资者，今天发布了KKR企业资产负债管理首席 投资官Henry McVey关于全球宏观展望的报告，针对2024年下半年的市场形势。 In "机会敲响"麦维及其团队解释了他们认为当前经济周期将持续下去的原因，尽管预计2024 年下半年市场波动性和政治复杂性将增加。他们强调，多元化和能够动态适应市场变化的能力将 是成功利用所提供有吸引力的投资机会的关键。他们的展望基于多个因素，包括积极的技术进步 对美国将维持结构性更高生产率水平的信心、全球劳动力市场比以往周期更为强劲、中央银行 资产负债表在历史比较中仍然稳健、以及全球投资周期出乎意料地强劲。 Henry McVey und Sein Team sind weiterhin ü berzeugt , dass wir uns in einem "制度改变" 对 于投资而言，这一势头受到额外刺激、增强的地缘政治风险、能源转型不均衡进展以及持续的 人才缺口等因素的共同影响。他们确信，股票与债券在投资组合中的传统关系已经发生了根本 性变化，因此需要采取新的投资组合策略方法。此外，非相关资产的重要性逐渐增加。 ...

| --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Thoughts | | | From the Road Sometimes you just get lucky. My recent trip across Asia with my colleague Changchun Hua, who is based in Beijing, was one of those times. Singapore wa ...

高盛：R公司(R) 与pital Group的合作带来新机遇,各业务板块均表现出色;管理层会议纪要 ...

Economic Outlook - China's economy has bottomed, with easier year-over-year comparisons and a reduction in the 'scarring effect' from COVID-19[1] - Trade within Asia is increasing, with 58% of Asian trade occurring within the region by 2021, projected to rise another 10%[17] Growth Drivers - The New Economy, including the Green Economy, AI, and industrial automation, constitutes about 20% of China's economy but accounts for 55% of GDP growth[3] - The green economy is growing at approximately 20% year-over-year, despite being only 10% of China's GDP[51] Challenges - The real estate sector remains overbuilt, with housing starts down nearly 60% from their peak, indicating a significant correction still in progress[32] - Savings as a percentage of household income have increased to 32.5%, up from 29.1% before COVID, indicating a need for restored consumer confidence[37] Investment Sentiment - Many investors are considering reducing their exposure to China from 10-12% to 5-6% due to uncertainty, despite improving fundamentals[47] - The potential for significant capital market reforms exists, which could attract both domestic and foreign investment[79] Policy Recommendations - Emphasis on supply-side reforms, urbanization incentives, and improved clarity around housing market reform is crucial for economic stability[76] - Modernizing the asset management industry is necessary to lower the cost of capital and enhance competitiveness on the global stage[80]