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Merck JPM 2025
Meta & PerforMad· 2025-01-15 07:05
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer 2 Forward-looking statement of Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, N.J., USA JP Morgan Healthcare Conference January 13, 2025 Business and Pipeline Update Rob Davis This presentation of Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, N.J., USA (the "company") includes "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of the company's management ...
Global Metals & Mining 2025 Outlook_ The battle of mining & minting vs policy & printing
Meta & PerforMad· 2025-01-12 05:33
Summary of Global Metals & Mining 2025 Outlook Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Global Metals & Mining** industry, providing insights into various commodities and their market dynamics for 2025 [1][6]. Key Insights and Arguments 1. **Base Metals Pricing**: Base metals and bulks are reasonably priced compared to historical levels, leading to a cautious outlook without strong sector calls. The focus is on stability and quality, with specific outperformers identified: RIO, ABX/GOLD, ANTO, and AAL [1][6]. 2. **Precious Metals Performance**: Gold is highlighted for its strong price level, while silver shows mixed signals. The performance of these metals is seen as a warning sign compared to base metals and currencies [2][6]. 3. **US Economic Policy**: The inauguration of Donald Trump is expected to influence inflation, migration, and tariffs, with a predicted increase in the US debt-to-GDP ratio. This environment is anticipated to support metal prices due to a trend towards a weaker dollar [3][31]. 4. **China's Economic Outlook**: The upcoming 15th five-year plan is expected to address worsening demographic trends and a challenging relationship with the US. The lack of regular stimulus announcements raises concerns about future economic growth [4][32]. 5. **European Economic Challenges**: The euro is struggling against the dollar, and Germany's elections are set to impact economic growth and social issues in Europe [5][33]. 6. **India's Position**: India is noted as being well-positioned for growth due to strong GDP performance and favorable demographics [5][34]. Commodity-Specific Outlook 1. **Copper**: Prices are expected to remain above $8,500 per ton, supported by rising project capex and potential supply deficits by 2030. Key risks include production cuts and supply disruptions [9][30]. 2. **Nickel**: Currently valued below $15,000 per ton, nickel is considered a "value" buy due to low margins and potential production cuts from Indonesia [10][30]. 3. **Aluminium**: Prices surged due to bauxite export suspensions in Guinea, but long-term support is questioned due to low barriers to entry in smelting [11][30]. 4. **Zinc**: While zinc outperformed in 2024, an influx of supply in 2025 may temper enthusiasm. Demand is mixed, influenced by steel demand from China and India [12][30]. 5. **Gold**: Driven by real interest rates and central bank purchases, gold remains a favored investment, especially as a hedge against geopolitical risks [13][30]. 6. **Iron Ore**: The outlook is cautious, with expectations of increased supply and softening demand from China. Price levels of $80-90 per ton are seen as attractive for increasing exposure [14][30]. 7. **Met Coal**: Tied to steel demand, met coal's price upside is capped by additional supply expected from 2024 to 2027 [15][30]. Investment Ratings and Price Targets - **Outperform Ratings**: AAL, ABX, ANTO, BHP, GLEN, and RIO are rated as outperformers with specific price targets reflecting the latest commodity price forecasts [18][24]. - **Market-Perform Ratings**: BOL, FCX, NEM, and VALE are rated as market performers, with adjusted price targets based on commodity price changes [25][28]. Market Dynamics and Sentiment - The report emphasizes that government policies will significantly influence metal prices in 2025, with a focus on the impact of US tariffs and China's stimulus measures [30][31]. - Despite negative sentiment around China's economy, the mining sector is positioned to benefit from potential government stimulus in housing and infrastructure [47][30]. Conclusion - The Global Metals & Mining industry faces a complex landscape in 2025, influenced by macroeconomic policies, demographic trends, and commodity-specific dynamics. The cautious yet strategic investment approach is recommended, focusing on select outperformers while monitoring broader economic indicators.
US Equity Strategy_ Where Macro Meets Micro
Meta & PerforMad· 2024-12-19 16:37
Key Points **1. Earnings Growth and Valuation** * **Earnings Growth Convergence**: The report expects continued earnings broadening for 2025, with easier compares for economically sensitive sectors due to lagging effects of weaker production data over the past year. The S&P 500 EPS growth is projected at 10% in 2025, with a base case target of $6500 for the S&P 500 by year-end 2025. * **Valuation**: The report uses a proprietary fair value model, which accounts for the forces currently at work in the US equity markets. The fair value model suggests a range of 19.4-24.3x for the S&P 500 trailing P/E. * **Sector Recommendations**: The report provides sector and industry group recommendations for Q4, with overweight positions in Media & Entertainment, Transportation, Telecommunications Services, Energy, and Insurance, and underweight positions in Automobiles & Components, Commercial & Professional Services, Software & Services, and Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail. **2. Market Outlook and Risks** * **Market Outlook**: The report expects a volatile bull market in 2025, with a base case target of 6500 for the S&P 500. The report highlights the importance of thematic fundamental tailwinds, such as AI and Trump policy, in identifying single stock and tactical alpha opportunities. * **Risks**: The report identifies several risks, including high trailing P/E, investor complacency, potential disruptions from changes in the rate and/or economic data trends, and geopolitical strife. **3. Sector Analysis** * **Communication Services**: The report expects strong earnings growth in the Communication Services sector, driven by the "Magnificent 7" companies. * **Consumer Discretionary**: The report expects moderate earnings growth in the Consumer Discretionary sector, with a focus on companies with strong fundamentals and pricing power. * **Consumer Staples**: The report expects modest earnings growth in the Consumer Staples sector, with a focus on companies with strong balance sheets and operational efficiency. * **Energy**: The report expects strong earnings growth in the Energy sector, driven by higher commodity prices and improved production efficiency. * **Financials**: The report expects moderate earnings growth in the Financials sector, with a focus on companies with strong capital allocation and growth prospects. **4. Other Important Points** * **Productivity**: The report highlights the importance of productivity improvement in driving earnings growth and valuation. * **Buybacks**: The report notes the ongoing trend of buybacks, which has contributed to the de-equitization of the market. * **Capex**: The report expects continued strong capital expenditures, which should support future earnings growth. * **Quality Metrics**: The report provides quality metrics for various market cap and style buckets, highlighting the importance of quality in investment decisions. **5. Conclusion** The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the US equity market outlook for 2025, with a focus on earnings growth, valuation, and sector analysis. The report highlights several risks and opportunities, and provides valuable insights for investors.
Meta20241206
Meta & PerforMad· 2024-12-09 01:18
Good afternoon. My name is Krista, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the MEDA third quarter earnings conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, again, press star one. We ask that you limit yourself to one question. This ca ...
Global Metals & Mining_ Global stainless output increases at much faster rate than carbon steel again, on track for 60mn tonnes in FY’24
Meta & PerforMad· 2024-12-02 06:35
shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V: 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V: 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V: shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V: shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V: 更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 V i e w p o i n t | 27 Nov 2024 09:00:10 ET │ 9 pages Global Metals & Mining shuinu9870 Global stainless output increases at much faster rate than carbon steel again, on track for 60mn tonnes in FY'24 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V: CITI'S TAKE World stainless steel production is typically more volatile than carbon steel. It declined 3%y/y in FY ...
Great Wall Motor (2333.HK)_ Key Takeaways from Mgmt Meeting; 4Q24E_2025E Outlook
Meta & PerforMad· 2024-11-09 14:13
Summary of Great Wall Motor (2333.HK) Management Meeting Company Overview - Great Wall Motor manufactures and sells pickup trucks and SUVs in China, with major brands including Haval and WEY [doc id='22'][doc id='13']. Key Highlights 1. **Sales Targets**: - Management maintained the FY24 sales target at 1.3 million units, with a 2025 export sales target of 550-600k units and a projected 30% YoY increase in domestic sales [doc id='2'][doc id='3']. 2. **Export Growth**: - The anticipated growth in export sales for 2025 will primarily come from Latin America and right-hand-drive markets, including Australia and New Zealand [doc id='2'][doc id='3']. 3. **Profitability**: - Management expects decent overseas profitability to continue, driven by sales growth in high-profitability regions such as Brazil, Australia, and New Zealand [doc id='5']. 4. **Brand Performance**: - **Haval**: Targeting 40k monthly domestic sales, with key models including Menglong PHEV and Xiaolong Max [doc id='4']. - **Wey**: Plans to launch over three models in 2025, including a BEV sedan and two PHEV SUVs, aiming for 10k monthly sales [doc id='4']. - **Tank**: Aiming for 300k units in 2025, with a monthly domestic sales target of 20k [doc id='4']. - **Ora**: Introduction of 1-2 new BEV models and a facelifted Good Cat in 2025 [doc id='4']. - **Pickup**: Targeting 20k monthly sales, split evenly between domestic and overseas markets [doc id='4']. 5. **Overseas Sales Outlook**: - For 2024, management projects overseas sales of 450k units, with contributions from various regions: ~40% from Russia, ~20% from Latin America, 15-20% from Australia and New Zealand, and 10-15% from South Africa [doc id='4']. 6. **Financial Performance**: - 2024E net profit is projected at RMB 13,009 million, with a significant increase to RMB 15,013 million in 2025E, reflecting an 84.1% growth from 2023 [doc id='6']. - The diluted EPS is expected to rise from RMB 0.827 in 2023 to RMB 1.523 in 2024E and RMB 1.758 in 2025E [doc id='6']. 7. **Valuation and Investment Strategy**: - The target price is set at HK$20.20, representing a potential return of 60.3% from the current price of HK$12.60 [doc id='7']. - The company is rated as a "Buy" due to a positive outlook on the NEV sector and expected growth in exports [doc id='23']. Risks - Potential risks include strong volume growth in low-margin NEV products that may negatively impact overall earnings and policy risks affecting export sales [doc id='25']. Additional Insights - Management indicated that the overseas gross profit margin (GPM) for the Tank brand is around 30%+, comparable to domestic GPM, while Haval's overseas GPM is approximately 20% [doc id='14']. - The company has around 1.3k 4S stores in overseas markets, with significant presence in Russia and Brazil [doc id='14']. - Management plans to pass some tax increases to local customers in Russia, where local production is around 70-80% [doc id='15']. This summary encapsulates the key points from the management meeting, highlighting the company's strategic direction, financial outlook, and potential risks.
Mango Excellent Media (.SZ)_ Key Drama Romance in the Alley To Launch Today
Meta & PerforMad· 2024-10-31 02:40
28 Oct 2024 03:01:02 ET │ 9 pages Citi Express | Mango Excellent Media (300413.SZ) Key Drama Romance in the Alley To Launch Today Mango TV's key drama Romance in the Alley (小巷人家) will release today at 8pm China Time. We are closely monitoring audience feedback and any positive performance will bode well for the stock. Companies Mentioned: Mango Excellent Media (300413.SZ; Rmb26.8; 25 Oct 24; 15:00) Vicky Wei, CFAAC +852-2501-2742 vicky.wei@citi.com See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Discl ...
Meta24Q2业绩会-
Meta & PerforMad· 2024-08-01 14:54
20240731-Meta Q2 CEO 发言 对于我们的社区和业务来说,这是一个强劲的季度。我们估计,现在每天至少有超过 32 亿人在使用我们的一款应用。我们在美国看到的增长尤其令人眼前一亮。WhatsApp 目前 在美国的月活跃用户已超过 1 亿,我们在 Facebook、Instagram 和 Threads 上也看到了良 好的同比增长,无论是在美国还是在全球。我对我们在 Facebook 上针对年轻人取得的进 展尤为满意。 我们看到的数据,尤其是美国的数据,与公众对谁在使用应用程序的质疑完全想法。几年 前,我们开始将应用程序的重点更多地放在 18 至 29 岁的年轻人身上,很高兴看到这些努 力取得了良好的效果。另一个亮点是 Threads,它的月活跃用户即将达到 2 亿。 我们正在朝着打造另一款大型应用的方向稳步前进,我们看到了更深入的参与,我对这里 的发展轨迹相当满意。现在的大主题当然是人工智能,我今天的评论将集中在三个方面。 现在,人工智能对我们的应用程序家族和核心业务意味着什么,我们看到了哪些新的人工 智能体验和机遇,以及人工智能正在如何塑造我们的元宇宙工作。 在 Facebook 和 Inst ...
ta 眼镜:当能力到GPT4o时
Meta & PerforMad· 2024-07-19 00:47
好 谢谢 本次会议仅面向华复证券的专业投资机构客户或受邀客户第三方专家发言内容仅代表其个人观点所有信息或观点不构成投资建议根据监管规定会议不得交流敏感内幕信息未经华复证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人严禁录音、制作纪要、转发、转载、传播、复制、编辑、修改等涉嫌违反上述情形等我们将保留一切法律权利感谢您的理解和支持 谢谢 好的各位领导晚上好我是华佛AI互联网传媒首席杨晓峰还有我的同事这个曾熙如那么今天主要给各位领导分享一下就是Meta AI眼镜后续AI能力上升以后可以带来一个怎么样的场景其实我们可以看到这个Meta的AI眼镜其实从去年下半年开始二代上线以后销量其实一直在稳步的爬坡中一直处于一个这个热度相对比较高的一个状态 那么主要原因就是因为Meta的AI眼镜它切入了一个比较好的赛道就我们过去可以看到它其实是跟这个雷朋的用户有一个比较好的契合那么所以我们可以看到过去这个产品它销量是比较不错的那么现在我们非常关注就是它的未来两个变化一个就是未来它有AR功能以后它是怎么样一个变化第二呢就是目前来看它的一个AI化以后会不会有一个新的量的提升 那么其实我们可以看到今年他在五六月份销量又上了一个台阶以后核心的原因就是因为他在 ...
再论ta眼镜和苹果手机
Meta & PerforMad· 2024-07-17 07:39
再论ta眼镜和苹果手机 ...