27 September 2024 | 4:06PM EDT _ Americas Technology: Internet: Updating Our Top 10 Industry Themes & Key Coverage Sub-Sector Debates As we enter the last quarter of 2024, we take the opportunity to refresh our top 10 Internet industry themes for the next 12 months. While we refresh our themes with industry data around end demand trends, forward forecasts and key learnings from Q2'24 (link) and our recently concluded 2024 Communacopia +Technology Conference (link), we make no changes to the actual underlyin ...

30 September 2024 | 1:55PM EDT _ Global: GS Economic Indicators Update: Financial Conditions Ease in China on PBOC Policy Announcements | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------|-------------------------------|---------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------- ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the gold market, specifically the dynamics of gold prices and central bank demand, particularly from emerging markets (EM) [2][9][11]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Gold Price Forecast Increase**: The gold price forecast has been raised from $2,700/toz to $2,900/toz for early 2025 due to anticipated faster declines in short-term interest rates in the West and China, and the gradual pricing in of these rates into Western ETF holdings backed by physical gold [2][9]. 2. **Central Bank Purchases**: EM central bank purchases in the London over-the-counter (OTC) market are driving the gold price rally, with purchases averaging 730 tons annualized year-to-date, representing about 15% of global annual production estimates [3][13]. 3. **Long Gold Recommendation**: The recommendation to hold gold is reiterated based on three factors: lower global interest rates, structurally higher central bank demand, and gold's hedging benefits against geopolitical and financial risks [3][25]. 4. **Impact of Central Bank Demand**: Central bank purchases are expected to account for about two-thirds of the anticipated rise in gold prices to $2,900/toz, with ETF flows following Fed rate cuts contributing the remaining one-third [10][25]. 5. **China's Central Bank Activity**: The People's Bank of China (PBoC) has been a significant player, reportedly purchasing gold for 18 consecutive months since November 2022, with estimates suggesting higher purchases than reported [15][16]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Nowcasting Model**: The nowcasting model used for estimating central bank demand is based on customs data and provides timely, country-level insights, contrasting with the quarterly estimates from the World Gold Council (WGC) [5][14]. 2. **Gold Bar Exports**: UK gold exports to the world, excluding Switzerland, have surged since mid-2022, indicating increased accumulation by EM central banks due to concerns over US sanctions and debt sustainability [21][24]. 3. **Discrepancies in Reporting**: There are discrepancies in gold trade data between the UK and Switzerland, suggesting that central bank gold may be in transit or stored in Switzerland, which is not fully captured in Swiss customs data [24][25]. 4. **Potential Risks**: Factors that could moderate the expected upside in gold prices include a softening in central bank demand, lower-than-expected ETF inflows, or a pullback in China's retail demand due to price sensitivity [26][25]. Conclusion - The gold market is experiencing significant upward pressure from central bank purchases, particularly from emerging markets, and the forecast for gold prices has been adjusted upward. The dynamics of interest rates and geopolitical risks continue to play a crucial role in shaping the outlook for gold as an investment.

2 October 2024 | 12:53AM HKT Neutral COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (601919.SS) Up to Neutral on structural supply chain complexity supporting higher valuation; assessing port operation suspension scenarios 601919.SS 12m Prie Target: Rmb13.80 Prie: Rmb15.71 Downside: 12.2% 1919.HK 12m Prie Target: HK$10.70 Prie: HK$13.04 Downside: 17.9% Herbert Lu +852-2978-0726 | herbert.lu@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Simon Cheung, CFA +852-2978-6102 | simon.cheung@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Dorothy Wong +852-2978- ...

27 September 2024 | 5:55PM BST _ | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | EM Weekly Fund Flows Monitor Foreign buying l ...

1 October 2024 | 4:14PM CST _ China Real Estate Rebound not reversal, fiscal policy key to watch In the evening of Sep-29/30, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Beijing governments announced easing measures (Exhibit 1). We think the timing of these policy easing measures in T1 cities came in line with market expectation post central authorities' supportive stance to the property sector, though the magnitude of policy easing against market expectation was slightly divergent (Guangzhou/Shenzhen in line and Bei ...

_ 30 September 2024 | 8:57PM BST | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

1 October 2024 | 4:14AM HKT _ China A-shares: 3 thematic trends: SPE in Semis; Foldable in Smartphones; AI in Software; Buy ideas on Catalysts & Valuation | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------- ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the Mixed Reality (MR) headset industry, highlighting recent developments and market dynamics related to major players like Meta and HTC [6][9]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Demand and Pricing**: Meta launched the Quest 3S MR headset at a competitive price of US$299.99, significantly lower than the previous model priced at US$499. This pricing strategy aims to attract a broader user base and expand the addressable market for MR headsets [4][9]. - **Product Launches**: Other companies, including HTC and Pico, have also introduced new models. HTC's VIVE Focus Vision is priced at US$999, targeting enterprise clients, while Pico's Ultra 4 is priced at US$614 [10][9]. - **Technological Advancements**: The MR headsets are evolving to include features like high-resolution cameras for passthrough capabilities and advanced tracking systems. The use of multiple cameras (10+) for facial and eye tracking is becoming more common [6][7]. - **Supply Chain Benefits**: The shift from Virtual Reality (VR) to MR is expected to drive upgrades in specifications across components, software, and assembly, benefiting the overall supply chain [6][9]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Component Suppliers**: Companies like Sunny Optical and Largan are key suppliers for lenses and optical modules used in MR headsets. Will Semi is noted for its CMOS image sensors, which are increasingly important due to the growing number of cameras in headsets [7][6]. - **Software Integration**: The integration of AI in AR glasses is highlighted, with Meta introducing a prototype of AR glasses that features an AI assistant for hands-free operations. This trend indicates a move towards more interactive and functional AR applications [8][6]. - **Market Growth Potential**: The overall addressable market for MR headsets is expected to grow as more brands enter the space and as devices become more powerful and versatile, combining AR and VR functionalities [6][9]. Conclusion - The MR headset market is poised for significant growth driven by competitive pricing, technological advancements, and an expanding user base. Key players are adapting their strategies to capture market share, and the supply chain is likely to benefit from these developments.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **U.S. manufacturing sector** and **construction spending** trends as of September 2024. Key Metrics and Data 1. **ISM Manufacturing Index**: - Remained unchanged at **47.2** in September, slightly below consensus expectations of **47.5** [3][4] - Employment component declined by **2.1 points** to **43.9**, while production increased by **5.0 points** to **49.8** and new orders increased by **1.5 points** to **46.1** [3][4] 2. **S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI**: - Revised up to **47.3** for September, slightly above the median forecast of **47.0** [4] - Output component revised down to **47.9**, while new orders increased to **44.7** [4] 3. **Job Openings**: - Increased by **329,000** to **8,040,000** in August, surpassing expectations [5] - Notable increases in job openings were seen in construction (+138,000), government (+103,000), and trade, transportation, and utilities (+92,000) sectors [5] 4. **Construction Spending**: - Decreased by **0.1%** in August, contrary to expectations for a small increase [6] - Private construction spending declined by **0.2%**, with residential spending down **0.3%** and nonresidential spending down **0.1%** [6] 5. **GDP Tracking Estimates**: - Q3 GDP tracking estimate remains unchanged at **+3.2%** (quarter-over-quarter annualized) [6] Core Insights and Commentary - The mixed signals from the ISM manufacturing index indicate a contraction in the manufacturing sector, with softening demand reported by several respondents [3][4] - The increase in job openings suggests a tight labor market, although hiring and layoff rates have declined, indicating potential challenges in labor turnover [5] - The decline in construction spending, particularly in private sectors, raises concerns about future growth in the construction industry [6] Additional Observations - The average lead time for production materials increased by **1 day** to **80 days**, indicating potential supply chain issues [4] - The inventory index decreased significantly, suggesting that businesses may be reducing stock levels in response to weaker demand [4] This summary encapsulates the essential data and insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state of the U.S. manufacturing and construction sectors, along with relevant economic indicators.