IndusInd Bank Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: IndusInd Bank (INBK.NS) - **Industry**: Indian Financials - **Current Price Target**: Rs1,150.00, down from Rs1,400.00 - **Market Capitalization**: US$9.1 billion - **Recent Stock Performance**: Stock price has fallen 30% post-earnings due to microfinance institution (MFI) asset quality concerns [1][2] Key Points and Arguments Stock Valuation and Performance - IndusInd Bank's stock is currently trading at 1.0x F26e book value, approximately 30% lower than its 5-year average valuations [2] - The stock has corrected 30% over the past three months, compared to a 32% decline in the Bank Nifty index [2] Earnings Projections - **Base Case Scenario**: - MFI bad loans expected to peak at 12% of loans post-Dec-23, with 95% coverage, leading to credit costs of ~200/160 bps in F25e/F26e - Loan growth projected at 10% in F25 and 15% in F26 - Return on Equity (RoE) estimated at 9% in F25 and 11% in F26, improving to ~13.5% in F27e - Target price-to-book value (P/BV) of 1.3x indicates ~30% upside from current stock price [2] - **Bull Case Scenario**: - MFI bad loans expected to peak at 10% of loans with 90% coverage, resulting in credit costs of ~190/150 bps - Loan growth projected at 10% in F25 and 16% in F26 - RoE estimated at 9% in F25 and 12% in F26, improving to 15% in F27e - Target P/BV of 1.8x suggests ~85% upside [3] - **Bear Case Scenario**: - MFI bad loans expected to peak at 17.5% of loans with 100% coverage, leading to credit costs exceeding 200 bps - Loan growth projected at 10% in both F25 and F26 - RoE estimated at ~8% in F25 and F26, with a capital raise of Rs65 billion at ~0.9x book value - Target P/BV of 0.8x indicates ~28% downside [4] Risk Assessment - The risk-reward profile is considered not bad, but near-term risks are tilted towards the downside, with a bear case weight of 30% [5] - Regulatory uncertainty is high, with potential tightening on MFI practices and lack of clarity on CEO tenure extension [5] - Key upside risks include lower-than-expected MFI asset quality stress and reduced impact from regulatory changes [5] Financial Metrics - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - F2024: Rs115.19 - F2025e: Rs73.57 - F2026e: Rs97.71 - F2027e: Rs134.67 [8] - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: - F2025e: 13.5 - F2026e: 10.2 - F2027e: 7.4 [8] - **Return on Average Equity (RoE)**: - F2025e: 8.8% - F2026e: 10.7% - F2027e: 13.3% [8] Market Context - IndusInd Bank's stock has de-rated post the IL&FS crisis and is currently trading 30% below post-COVID valuations [15] - The bank has better PPoP margins and capital relative to most peer banks, indicating a stronger starting point for its balance sheet [18] Conclusion - IndusInd Bank presents a mixed outlook with potential for recovery in the long term, but immediate challenges related to asset quality and regulatory environment pose significant risks. Investors may consider gradual accumulation given the bank's stronger balance sheet and profitability metrics compared to peers [5][18]

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 27 Nov 2024 14:03:10 ET │ 14 pages V i e w p o i n t | Global Economics shuinu9870 Global Inflation Monitor: Progress to Central Banks' Targets Slows 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： CITI'S TAKE Global headline inflation in October ticked up slightly but remained only a notch above 2% as goods, food, and energy inflation all continued to cruise near or even ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 22 Nov 2024 06:52:17 ET │ 11 pages CGN Power (1816.HK) Tariff Drop In Guangdong from Higher Market Based Sales Mix in 2025E Looks Mild CITI'S TAKE National Energy Administration and Guangdong Energy Administration jointly issued the notice regarding 2025 electricity market exchange and related matters. The most important point is that the electricity sales volume mix of CGN's 10 nuclear units in Guangdong via market based sales will be added 10ppts yoy from 25% in 2024 to 35% in ...

North America Equity Research 19 November 2024 J P M O R G A N This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. Cryptocurrency Markets Nov 18 Spot ETP Flows: BTC ETPs Rebound Back to Net Sales as ETH ETPs Remain Negative Yesterday; IBIT Options to Launch Immi ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Battery and Components** industry, particularly in the context of electric vehicles (EVs) and battery supply and demand dynamics in the Asia Pacific region [1][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Global EV Sales Trends**: - Global electric vehicle (EV) sales are projected to reach **2,000K units** in 2024, with a significant increase from **1,200K units** in 2023 [4]. - China’s EV sales are expected to grow from **1,500K units** in 2021 to **800K units** in 2024, indicating a robust market demand [4]. - **Battery Supply and Demand**: - The effective battery capacity in China is forecasted to increase from **1,442 GWh** in 2023 to **3,286 GWh** by 2030, reflecting a strong growth trajectory in battery production capabilities [6]. - The demand for electric car batteries is projected to rise from **353 GWh** in 2021 to **2,739 GWh** by 2030, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately **20%** [10]. - **Market Share Dynamics**: - CATL is expected to maintain a dominant market share in the battery sector, with projections showing its sales volume increasing from **116 GWh** in 2021 to **1,056 GWh** by 2030 [14]. - BYD's market share is also anticipated to grow, with sales projected to reach **274 GWh** by 2030 [14]. Additional Important Insights - **Battery Technology Trends**: - The proportion of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries in total battery installations is expected to be around **60%**, indicating a shift towards more cost-effective battery technologies [21]. - The breakdown of battery installations by vehicle type shows a significant focus on electric passenger vehicles (ePV), which are projected to dominate the market [21]. - **Regional Market Insights**: - The conference highlighted the competitive landscape in various regions, with specific emphasis on the market shares of key players like LGES, CALB, and others in the global EV battery market [27][30]. - **Future Projections**: - The overall battery supply is expected to reach **2,670 GWh** by 2030, with a utilization rate projected to improve as demand increases [14][16]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the China Battery and Components industry.

Jefferies UK | Investment Companies Equity Research November 19, 2024 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Summary of Key Points from the Battery Expert Call with GGII Industry Overview - The discussion focused on the lithium-ion battery market, particularly in the context of electric vehicles (EVs) and energy storage systems (ESS) [1][2]. Core Insights - **EV Battery Demand Forecast**: Expected to reach 900-950 GWh by 2025, a revision from an earlier estimate of 1 TWh [6]. - **ESS Demand Forecast**: Anticipated to reach 350-400 GWh in 2025, up from an initial forecast of 240-250 GWh [5][1]. - **Production Outlook for 4Q24**: EV battery production is projected at 730-750 GWh for 2024, lower than the previous estimate of 800 GWh. In contrast, ESS battery shipments are expected to exceed 300 GWh [2]. - **Production Growth Rate**: A smaller sequential decline in production growth is anticipated in January 2025 compared to January 2024 [4]. Market Dynamics - **Impact of PHEV Models**: Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) account for over 40% of battery demand but have a lower average battery capacity, which diminishes their overall impact on EV battery demand [6]. - **Tariff Risks**: Potential US tariffs on ESS cells could influence order placements, with demand in the Middle East and South Asia exceeding pre-election expectations [5]. Material Costs and Processing Fees - **Cathode Material Processing Fees**: Fees for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathode materials have increased from RMB 15,000/t to RMB 20,000/t due to rising demand for high-density LFP [7]. - **Copper Foil Processing Fees**: Increased from RMB 15,000/t to RMB 18,000/t, with a forecast to reach RMB 20,000/t by year-end [10]. Company Valuations - **CATL Valuation**: Valued at RMB 362/share based on a 17.0x 2024E EV/EBITDA, implying a 30.8x 2024E P/E and 23.7x 2025E P/E [13]. - **Shenzhen Kedali Valuation**: Valued at RMB 92.03/share based on a 15x 2025E P/E multiple, reflecting overall low sentiment in the battery space [15]. Risks Identified - **CATL Risks**: Include lower-than-expected EV demand, increased competition, and higher raw material costs [14]. - **Shenzhen Kedali Risks**: Include slower-than-expected battery demand, intensified competition, and rising raw material costs [16]. Additional Insights - The overall material prices in the battery industry are experiencing upward pressure, with significant reductions in the supply of electrolytes for new projects [10]. - The utilization rate in the industry remains low, although leading companies exhibit relatively higher rates [10]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and forecasts regarding the lithium-ion battery market, highlighting both opportunities and risks for investors in this sector.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The document pertains to the **US Banking Industry** and specifically discusses the cash assets and loan growth trends among commercial banks as of November 11, 2024 [9][23]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Cash Assets Trends**: - Total bank cash assets have been on a declining trend throughout the summer and early fall, with a decrease of approximately **$380 billion** from early June to early October [9][13]. - Recently, cash assets have rebounded somewhat on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, indicating a potential stabilization or slight increase in the coming months due to limited new Treasury debt issuance [9][13]. 2. **Liquidity Position**: - Banks continue to maintain ample liquidity, with the effective federal funds rate remaining stable relative to the interest on bank reserves [9][13]. - The ongoing Fed balance sheet runoff has drained some liquidity from bank reserves, but overall liquidity remains sufficient [9][13]. 3. **Loan Growth**: - Loan growth remains modest, with a reported increase of **$22.4 billion** in seasonally adjusted terms and **$59.0 billion** non-seasonally adjusted during the week of October 30 [9][13]. - The growth was primarily driven by commercial and industrial loans, loans to non-depository financial institutions, and consumer loans [9][13]. 4. **Deposits**: - Deposits have generally increased over the last few months, with a reported increase of **$17.5 billion** in seasonally adjusted terms during the week of October 30 [9][25]. - Deposits as a share of total liabilities have remained stable in the **83-84%** range, similar to pre-pandemic levels [9][25]. 5. **Small vs. Large Banks**: - Unlike large banks, cash assets have been generally increasing at small banks, indicating a divergence in liquidity management strategies [9][14]. 6. **Interest Rate Environment**: - The Fed has cut policy rates, but they remain restrictive. Longer-end Treasury yields have increased due to better economic data, which may keep loan growth modest in the near term [9][13]. Additional Important Insights - The document highlights the potential for a pickup in loan growth next year due to lower rates and easing lending standards, alongside reduced election uncertainty [9][13]. - The balance sheet data indicates that large banks' total assets were approximately **$13.65 trillion**, while small banks' total assets were around **$6.77 trillion** as of October 30 [9][27]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the evolving economic conditions and regulatory environment, which could impact the banking sector's performance moving forward [9][44]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the US banking industry and its outlook.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on China Battery Materials Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the lithium-ion battery market, specifically insights from Mr. Zhang Jinhui, Chief Analyst of ICCSINO, regarding the future demand and production of batteries in the electric vehicle (xEV) sector [10][12]. Core Insights - **Global Battery Demand**: ICCSINO projects a global battery demand increase of 18-20% year-over-year (YoY) in 2025, with energy storage system (ESS) battery demand expected to rise approximately 30% YoY [12]. - **xEV Production Volume**: The expected global production volume for xEVs in 2025 is between 19.9 million and 20.0 million units, with China accounting for about 14.5 million units [10][12]. - **xEV Penetration Rate**: The penetration rate of xEVs in China is anticipated to increase to 53-55% in 2025, up from 46-47% in 2024, with further growth expected to exceed 70% by 2028 [12]. Battery Technology Insights - **LFP vs NCM Batteries**: Demand for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries is expected to grow at a higher rate than nickel cobalt manganese (NCM) batteries, driven by strong ESS demand. Some high-end new energy vehicle (NEV) models are opting for both battery types due to LFP's superior rate performance [13]. - **Solid-State Batteries**: ICCSINO anticipates that several NEV models featuring semi-solid state batteries will be available by 2025-2026, with all-solid-state batteries expected to emerge post-2027 [14]. Production and Supply Chain Dynamics - **Production Pipeline**: November 2024 is projected to be the peak month for battery production in 2024, with a potential 10% month-over-month decrease in December as producers destock [10]. - **Processing Fees**: ICCSINO believes that processing fees for battery materials are unlikely to see significant increases in 2025 due to surplus supply [17]. - **Utilization Ratio**: A slight increase in the utilization ratio across the battery supply chain is expected in 2025, although profitability may remain low [17]. Company-Specific Insights - **CATL Valuation**: CATL is valued at RMB 362 per share based on a 17.0x 2024E EV/EBITDA multiple, with a target price implying a 30.8x 2024E P/E and 23.7x 2025E P/E [20]. - **Risks for CATL**: Potential risks include lower-than-expected EV demand, increased competition in the EV battery market, and higher raw material costs [20]. - **Shenzhen Kedali Valuation**: Shenzhen Kedali is valued at RMB 92.03 per share based on a 15x 2025E P/E multiple, reflecting overall low sentiment in the battery sector [20]. - **Risks for Shenzhen Kedali**: Risks include slower-than-expected battery demand, intensified competition leading to price wars, and rising raw material costs such as aluminum and copper [20]. Additional Considerations - The analysis indicates that the industry is currently at a trough in the battery cycle, suggesting potential for recovery and growth in the coming years [10]. - The insights provided by ICCSINO highlight the evolving landscape of battery technology and market dynamics, which are critical for investors to consider when evaluating opportunities in the battery materials sector [10][12][14].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **China Consumer Sector**: The overall consumption sector in China showed weakness in 3Q24, with average year-on-year sales growth at 5%, down from 5% in 2Q24 and 14% in 1Q24. The margin performance was mixed, and while a sequential growth improvement is anticipated in 4Q24 due to an easier base, a significant rebound is not expected. Policy stimulus is awaited to support consumption recovery [2][2][2]. Core Insights - **Preferred Sub-sectors**: The most preferred sub-sectors within the consumer coverage include white goods, diversified retailers, super premium spirits, sports brands, and dairy, with dairy being upgraded. Top buy ideas include Anta, Midea, Hisense, Miniso, YUMC, Mengniu, Moutai, CRB, Giant Biogene, Laopu, Wuliangye, UPC, Robam, and Yankershop Food [2][2][2]. - **Consumer Staples Performance**: The 3Q24 results for consumer staples were largely in line with expectations, showing a quarter-on-quarter recovery in some subsectors like dairy, condiments, and snacks. There was a divergence in results, with selective margin beats observed in pet food, dairy, and condiments. The focus remains on policy stimulus measures impacting fundamentals and earnings upside, particularly for dairy and fertility support [2][2][2]. Additional Insights - **China Sportswear**: Sales in the sportswear sector were softer, with year-on-year trends deteriorating. Niche brands continued to outperform, and there is an expectation for recovery in 4Q24, aided by earlier promotions. However, the balance between increasing retail discounts and sales recovery is critical [6][6][6]. - **Korea Batteries**: Earnings from cell and cathode companies in Korea were below expectations, leading to further cuts in earnings estimates. The near-term demand for EV batteries in 2025 is seen as regulation-dependent, with risks associated with EU carbon emission targets and the sustainability of US IRA tax credits [8][8][8]. - **Toyota and Honda Earnings**: - **Toyota**: Reported operating profits of ¥1.16 trillion for 2Q, which fell short of estimates but exceeded expectations when excluding one-off costs. The company set a medium-term ROE target of 20% [9][10][10]. - **Honda**: Reported operating profits of ¥257.9 billion, below expectations. The company is focusing on EV sales in the US, with higher-than-expected per-unit incentives for EVs [10][10][10]. - **Coupang**: The 3Q24 results were in line with expectations, but profitability was lower than anticipated. The company is experiencing strong growth in e-commerce market share despite mixed segment results [10][10][10]. - **Omron**: Reported operating profits of ¥13.0 billion, exceeding expectations, particularly in the industrial automation business, which showed signs of recovery [10][10][10]. - **Wanhua Chemical**: Revised estimates and target prices downward due to prolonged weakness in certain product segments and higher-than-expected expenses [10][12][12]. Conclusion The conference call highlighted a cautious outlook for the China consumer sector, with expectations for gradual recovery supported by policy measures. Key companies in various sectors, including automotive and consumer staples, are navigating mixed results, with some showing resilience while others face challenges. The focus remains on strategic adjustments and market conditions that could influence future performance.