Industry Investment Rating - The report highlights a positive trend in rental yields, indicating potential investment opportunities in the real estate market, particularly in cities with rising rental returns [3][7][9] Core Viewpoints - The national average price-to-rent ratio in 50 key cities decreased to 1:590 in the first half of 2024, showing a narrowing gap between housing prices and rents for the second consecutive year [3][4] - Rental yields in 50 key cities reached 2.03% in the first half of 2024, the highest since 2019, outperforming the five-year deposit interest rates of major banks [3][7] - The rent-to-price ratio in 50 key cities decreased to 49.2 years, indicating a shorter time required to recover housing costs through rental income [3][15] - The rent-to-income ratio in 50 key cities dropped to 12.75%, reflecting a reduction in rental pressure for residents [3][21] Price-to-Rent Ratio - The average rent in 50 key cities was 33.29 yuan/m²/month in the first half of 2024, a 1.18% decrease from 2023, while the average housing price dropped by 4.65% to 19,640 yuan/m² [4] - The price-to-rent ratio has been declining since 2019, reaching 1:590 in the first half of 2024, indicating a gradual correction in the housing market [5] Rental Yield - Rental yields in 50 key cities increased by 0.07 percentage points to 2.03% in the first half of 2024, surpassing the five-year deposit interest rate of 1.8% [7][8] - Second and third-tier cities saw rental yields rise to 1.92% and 2.46%, respectively, while first-tier cities experienced a slight decline to 1.79% [9][10] - Yinchuan led with a rental yield of 4.58%, while Xiamen had the lowest at 1.32% [10] Rent-to-Price Ratio - The rent-to-price ratio in 50 key cities decreased to 49.2 years in the first half of 2024, the lowest since 2019, indicating a shorter time to recover housing costs through rental income [15] - Cities in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions, such as Xiamen and Dongguan, had the highest rent-to-price ratios, requiring over 70 years to recover costs [16] Rent-to-Income Ratio - The rent-to-income ratio in 50 key cities dropped to 12.75% in the first half of 2024, reflecting a reduction in rental pressure for residents [21] - Shenzhen, Shanghai, Sanya, and Beijing formed four major rental pressure zones, with rent-to-income ratios exceeding 24% [23] - Nearly 90% of the 50 key cities saw a decline in rent-to-income ratios, with Sanya being an exception due to strong tourism-driven rental demand [26]

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [1][2][3] Core Views - The housing price-to-income ratio in 100 key cities dropped to 10.6 in the first half of 2024, a 7.4% decrease compared to 2023, indicating a continued easing of homebuying pressure [1][2] - The average housing price in these cities fell by 4.1% to 14,423 yuan/m², while per capita disposable income increased by 3.5% [2] - The decline in the price-to-income ratio is primarily driven by falling housing prices rather than rapid income growth, which differs from the trend before 2022 [2] City-Level Analysis - In the first half of 2024, the price-to-income ratio declined across all city tiers, with second-tier cities experiencing the largest drop of 8.4% [1][4] - First-tier cities had a price-to-income ratio of 26.3, second-tier cities 11.2, and third- and fourth-tier cities 7.9 [1][4] - Shenzhen had the highest price-to-income ratio at 34.9, while Zhuzhou had the lowest at 4.0 [1][9] Regional Analysis - The Yangtze River Delta region saw the largest decline in price-to-income ratio among the eight major economic zones, dropping by 10% compared to 2023 [6][7] - The Strait Economic Zone maintained the highest price-to-income ratio at 16.2, followed by the Pearl River Delta at 14.5 and the Yangtze River Delta at 11.6 [6][7] - The Northeast, Southwest, Northwest, and Central regions had price-to-income ratios ranging from 7.5 to 8.1, indicating relatively lower homebuying pressure [6][7] Notable City Trends - Among the 100 cities, only 5 saw an increase in their price-to-income ratio, all of which were third- and fourth-tier cities, including Tangshan and Sanya [10][11] - Taizhou experienced the largest decline in price-to-income ratio, dropping by 15.5%, followed by Dongguan and Lianyungang, which both saw declines of over 13% [12] - High price-to-income ratio cities are predominantly located in coastal areas, reflecting stronger economic development and higher purchasing power [8][9]

诸葛汝居敬据研究中心 ZHUGE DATA RESEARCH CENTER 重点城市楼市成交周报 2024 年第 29 周（7. 15–7. 21 ） 第 29 周新房成交量环比微涨 0. 5%、二手房涨约 3%，上海新 房上涨 60%领跑 状心输论， 1、2024 年第 29 周 (7. 15–7. 21) 监测重点城市新房成交环比微升 0. 49%, 同比下降 4. 03%; 二手住宅成交环比上升 2. 68%，同比上涨 35. 15%。累计成交来看，2024 年 7 月截止至 21 日， 新房成交量较去年同期上涨 7. 87%，二手房上涨 32. 52%。 2、根据诸葛数据研究中心监测数据显示，2024 年第 29 周重点 50 城的情绪指数为−0. 87, 较上周上升 0. 01，市场情绪指数连续 22 周处于低迷区间。 地址：北京市朝阳区德元九和大厦 501 -1- 商务合作：shangwu@zhuge.com 一、第 29 周重点 15 城新房成交量止跌微升，累计成交同环比持续为正 根据诸葛数据研究中心监测数据显示，2024 年第 29 周，宣点 15 城新建南品住宅成交量为 15279 查，环比 ...