Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [1][2][3] Core Views - The housing price-to-income ratio in 100 key cities dropped to 10.6 in the first half of 2024, a 7.4% decrease compared to 2023, indicating a continued easing of homebuying pressure [1][2] - The average housing price in these cities fell by 4.1% to 14,423 yuan/m², while per capita disposable income increased by 3.5% [2] - The decline in the price-to-income ratio is primarily driven by falling housing prices rather than rapid income growth, which differs from the trend before 2022 [2] City-Level Analysis - In the first half of 2024, the price-to-income ratio declined across all city tiers, with second-tier cities experiencing the largest drop of 8.4% [1][4] - First-tier cities had a price-to-income ratio of 26.3, second-tier cities 11.2, and third- and fourth-tier cities 7.9 [1][4] - Shenzhen had the highest price-to-income ratio at 34.9, while Zhuzhou had the lowest at 4.0 [1][9] Regional Analysis - The Yangtze River Delta region saw the largest decline in price-to-income ratio among the eight major economic zones, dropping by 10% compared to 2023 [6][7] - The Strait Economic Zone maintained the highest price-to-income ratio at 16.2, followed by the Pearl River Delta at 14.5 and the Yangtze River Delta at 11.6 [6][7] - The Northeast, Southwest, Northwest, and Central regions had price-to-income ratios ranging from 7.5 to 8.1, indicating relatively lower homebuying pressure [6][7] Notable City Trends - Among the 100 cities, only 5 saw an increase in their price-to-income ratio, all of which were third- and fourth-tier cities, including Tangshan and Sanya [10][11] - Taizhou experienced the largest decline in price-to-income ratio, dropping by 15.5%, followed by Dongguan and Lianyungang, which both saw declines of over 13% [12] - High price-to-income ratio cities are predominantly located in coastal areas, reflecting stronger economic development and higher purchasing power [8][9]

Industry Investment Rating - The report highlights a positive trend in rental yields, indicating potential investment opportunities in the real estate market, particularly in cities with rising rental returns [3][7][9] Core Viewpoints - The national average price-to-rent ratio in 50 key cities decreased to 1:590 in the first half of 2024, showing a narrowing gap between housing prices and rents for the second consecutive year [3][4] - Rental yields in 50 key cities reached 2.03% in the first half of 2024, the highest since 2019, outperforming the five-year deposit interest rates of major banks [3][7] - The rent-to-price ratio in 50 key cities decreased to 49.2 years, indicating a shorter time required to recover housing costs through rental income [3][15] - The rent-to-income ratio in 50 key cities dropped to 12.75%, reflecting a reduction in rental pressure for residents [3][21] Price-to-Rent Ratio - The average rent in 50 key cities was 33.29 yuan/m²/month in the first half of 2024, a 1.18% decrease from 2023, while the average housing price dropped by 4.65% to 19,640 yuan/m² [4] - The price-to-rent ratio has been declining since 2019, reaching 1:590 in the first half of 2024, indicating a gradual correction in the housing market [5] Rental Yield - Rental yields in 50 key cities increased by 0.07 percentage points to 2.03% in the first half of 2024, surpassing the five-year deposit interest rate of 1.8% [7][8] - Second and third-tier cities saw rental yields rise to 1.92% and 2.46%, respectively, while first-tier cities experienced a slight decline to 1.79% [9][10] - Yinchuan led with a rental yield of 4.58%, while Xiamen had the lowest at 1.32% [10] Rent-to-Price Ratio - The rent-to-price ratio in 50 key cities decreased to 49.2 years in the first half of 2024, the lowest since 2019, indicating a shorter time to recover housing costs through rental income [15] - Cities in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions, such as Xiamen and Dongguan, had the highest rent-to-price ratios, requiring over 70 years to recover costs [16] Rent-to-Income Ratio - The rent-to-income ratio in 50 key cities dropped to 12.75% in the first half of 2024, reflecting a reduction in rental pressure for residents [21] - Shenzhen, Shanghai, Sanya, and Beijing formed four major rental pressure zones, with rent-to-income ratios exceeding 24% [23] - Nearly 90% of the 50 key cities saw a decline in rent-to-income ratios, with Sanya being an exception due to strong tourism-driven rental demand [26]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a slight increase in new home sales and a more significant increase in second-hand home sales, suggesting a cautiously optimistic outlook for the real estate market in key cities [2][3]. Core Insights - In the week of July 15-21, 2024, new home sales in key cities increased by 0.49% month-on-month but decreased by 4.03% year-on-year, while second-hand home sales rose by 2.68% month-on-month and 35.15% year-on-year [2][3]. - Cumulative sales data for July 2024 shows new home sales up by 7.87% compared to the same period last year, and second-hand home sales up by 32.52% [2][3]. - The sentiment index for the 50 monitored cities stands at -0.87, indicating a slight improvement but remaining in a low mood zone for 22 consecutive weeks [2][13]. Summary by Sections New Home Sales - In the week of July 15-21, 2024, the new home sales volume in 15 key cities was 15,279 units, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.49% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.03% [3]. - Cumulative new home sales for July 2024 reached 52,447 units, marking a 14.57% increase compared to the previous month and a 7.87% increase year-on-year [3]. - Shanghai led the new home sales with a 59.65% increase, while Beijing and Shenzhen saw declines of 22.93% and no change, respectively [5][6]. Second-Hand Home Sales - The second-hand home sales volume in 10 key cities reached 18,523 units, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9% and a year-on-year increase of 32.52% [7]. - The second-hand home market is showing a steady upward trend, with two consecutive weeks of month-on-month increases and seven consecutive weeks of year-on-year increases [7][11]. - In the week of July 15-21, 2024, Hangzhou experienced the highest month-on-month increase in second-hand home sales at 10.05%, while Shanghai and Shenzhen saw declines of 8.53% and 1.71%, respectively [11][12]. Market Sentiment - The sentiment index for the 50 monitored cities is at -0.87, indicating a slight rise of 0.01 from the previous week, but the market sentiment remains weak due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances [13][14].