Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the LatAm FX and Rates Analytics industry [1]. Core Insights - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the FX performance across various Latin American countries, highlighting the relative performance of currencies against global drivers and domestic fundamentals [1][3]. - It includes a snapshot of monetary policy across Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Colombia, and Peru, indicating the current interest rates and market expectations for future changes [1][13]. - The report discusses the performance of nominal bonds and local fixed income markets, including issuance trends and foreign positioning in these markets [1][14]. Summary by Sections FX Performance - The report presents a summary of FX performance over different time frames, indicating a mixed performance with YTD changes showing a decline for several currencies [3]. - For instance, the Brazilian Real (BRL) has shown a YTD decline of -6.6%, while the Mexican Peso (MXN) has decreased by -2.9% [3]. Monetary Policy Snapshot - The monetary policy snapshot indicates that Brazil's current interest rate is 10.55%, with expectations for slight adjustments in the coming months [1][13]. - Mexico's interest rate is currently at 5.62%, with a projected path indicating a potential increase [1][13]. Local Market Analytics - The report details the local fixed income market dynamics, including recent and upcoming auctions, and the positioning of foreign investors in local bonds [1][14]. - It highlights that Brazil and Mexico are key players in the local fixed income market, with significant foreign interest [1][14]. FX vs Global Drivers - The analysis includes the beta of various currencies to global commodities such as oil and copper, indicating how these currencies respond to global market movements [1][7]. - For example, the report notes that the MXN has a beta of -0.30 to oil, suggesting a negative correlation with oil price movements [7]. FX vs Domestic Fundamentals - The report examines the relationship between currency performance and domestic economic fundamentals, such as current account balances and fiscal positions [1][9]. - It indicates that the RUB and ZAR have shown significant changes in their FX performance relative to their current account balances [9][11].

Deutsche Bank Research Global Cross-Discipline Thematic Research Date 26 July 2024 Next week...this week All eyes will be on monetary policy decisions from the Fed, the BoJ and the BoE next week. In economic data, key releases include the jobs report in the US, inflation and GDP data in Europe as well as PMIs in China. In corporate earnings, the spotlight is on big tech firms. The week ahead is centered around key central bank decisions from the Fed, the BoJ and the BoE. All eyes will be on the Fed on Wedne ...

Deutsche Bank Research Global Cross-Discipline Thematic Research Date 26 July 2024 Next week...this week All eyes will be on monetary policy decisions from the Fed, the BoJ and the BoE next week. In economic data, key releases include the jobs report in the US, inflation and GDP data in Europe as well as PMIs in China. In corporate earnings, the spotlight is on big tech firms. The week ahead is centered around key central bank decisions from the Fed, the BoJ and the BoE. All eyes will be on the Fed on Wedne ...

| --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------|----------------------|-------------------| | | NSA CPI | MTM | | 1-Feb-24 | 310.33 | | | 1-Mar-24 | 312.33 | 0.65% | | 1-Apr-24 | 313.55 | 0.39% | | 1-May-24 | 314.07 | 0.17% | | 1-Jun-24 | 314.18 | 0.03% | | 1-Jul-24 | 314.62 | 0.14% | | 1-Aug-24 | 314.71 | 0.03% | | 1-Sep-24 | 314.86 | 0.05% | | 1-Oct-24 | 314.70 | -0.05% | | | | | | 1-Nov-24 | 314.32 | -0.12% | | 1-Dec-24 | 314.24 | -0.03% | | 1-Jan-25 | 315.52 | 0.41% | | 1-Feb-25 1-Mar-25 1-Apr-25 | 31 ...

Deutsche Bank Research North America High Yield Corporates Consumer Services, Leisure & Gaming Company Royal Caribbean Cruises (Nor) Date 25 July 2024 Key Takeaways from Q2'24 Results Royal Caribbean reported Adjusted EBITDA of $1.55 billion (+32.4% versus $1.17 billion in Q2'23) on revenue of $4.11 billion (+16.7% versus $3.52 billion in Q2'23). We note that Adjusted EBITDA was ahead of consensus expectations (~$1.42 billion). Management noted RCL achieved all three Trifecta goals on a trailing 12- month b ...

Deutsche Bank Research Global Asset Allocation Investor Positioning and Flows Date 26 July 2024 Strategy Update Sharp Pullback But Not There Yet Over the last several weeks we have been flagging that equity positioning had become very elevated after a sharp but lop-sided climb led by mega-cap growth and Tech stocks. With earnings growth a key driver of positioning, the Q2 earnings season has been a catalyst for a rotation and a pullback (Q2 2024 Earnings Preview: Looking For Growth To Pick Up And Broaden, J ...

Deutsche Bank Research LatAm Macro and Strategy Monthly: Searching for Direction July 2024 Drausio Giacomelli Strategist +1-212-250-7355 Francisco Campos Chief LatAm Economist +1-212-250-9764 Carlos Munoz-Carcamo FX Strategist +1-212-250-2259 JP Schuchter Research Associate +1-212-250-9297 IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 041/10/2023. UNTIL 19th MARCH 2021 INCOMPLETE DISCLOSURE INFORMATION MAY HAVE BEEN DISPLAYED, PLEASE SEE APPENDIX 1 FOR FURTHER DETA ...

Deutsche Bank Research Global Rates Global Fixed Income Weekly Date 26 July 2024 Strategy Update This publication is a compilation of key research reports published over the past week. Francis Yared Strategist Matthew Raskin Strategist Soniya Sadeesh Strategist Bernd Volk Strategist Steven Zeng, CFA Strategist Ioannis Sokos Strategist Brian Lu Research Associate Gabriele Cozzi Strategist Mingyue Xin Strategist Deutsche Bank AG IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. ...

Economic Growth - China's GDP growth is expected to decelerate to 4.9% in 2024, down from previous forecasts due to weaker domestic demand and a slowdown in the services sector[1][46]. - In Q2 2024, GDP growth slowed to 4.7% YoY from 5.3% in Q1, marking the lowest sequential growth since Q4 2022[1][46]. Sector Performance - The services sector's growth slowed to 4.2% in Q2, primarily due to a deteriorating property market and reduced government spending[1][4]. - The industrial sector maintained a growth rate of 5.6% in Q2, supported by strong exports[1][4]. Household Income and Spending - Household income growth decreased to 4.5% in Q2 2024 from 6.2% in Q1 and 6.3% in 2023, leading to reduced household spending on essentials[1][6]. - Consumer inflation has turned positive but remains subdued, with expectations of gradual improvement to 0.9% by the end of 2024[1][48]. Fiscal Policy and Government Spending - Total fiscal spending shrank by 2% YoY in the first five months of 2024, indicating a downward trend in government expenditure[1][24]. - A budget revision may be necessary in H2 2024 to achieve the 5% annual growth target amid declining local government revenues[1][48]. Trade and Exports - Exports are projected to remain a bright spot, with growth driven by increasing demand from emerging markets, which saw exports to EMDEs nearly double from 2018 to 2023[1][108]. - The impact of new US and EU tariffs on Chinese exports is expected to be minimal, affecting only about 0.5% of total exports[1][123]. Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) is expected to implement a modest rate cut of 10bps by the end of 2024, facing constraints from the need to maintain currency stability[1][56]. - The PBoC's focus on exchange rate stability limits the scope for aggressive monetary easing, despite the need for support amid low inflation and softening credit demand[1][116]. Investment Trends - There has been a notable increase in Panda bond issuance, with a total of RMB 45 billion issued between January and May 2024, driven by low lending costs[1][304]. - The net issuance of Dim Sum bonds has also increased significantly, reflecting the favorable interest rate differential and the need for onshore enterprises to access cheaper USD funding[1][330].