Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies within it [1]. Core Insights - The upcoming week is pivotal for monetary policy decisions from major central banks including the Fed, BoJ, and BoE, with significant economic data releases expected [2][3]. - The US economists predict a hold on interest rates by the Fed, with a potential cut forecasted for September, while the BoJ has a 60% chance of a rate hike due to inflation and wage growth aligning with expectations [3]. - In Europe, the BoE is anticipated to begin easing restrictive policies, with a narrow majority favoring a rate cut [3]. - Key economic indicators include the US jobs report, with payroll gains expected to rise from 206k in June to 215k in July, and the unemployment rate projected to decrease to 4.0% [4][5]. Economic Data Summaries - Eurozone inflation is expected to rise to 2.59% YoY in July from 2.52% in June, with core HICP remaining at 2.87% [5]. - In Germany, inflation is forecasted at 2.5%, while France is expected to see 3.0% inflation [5]. - Japan's unemployment rate is projected to remain at 2.6%, with a significant MoM drop in industrial production forecasted at -5.1% [6]. - In China, both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs are expected to decline [6]. Corporate Earnings Focus - Major tech companies such as Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon are set to report earnings, with the Nasdaq 100 having experienced a decline of approximately 8.9% since July 10 [7]. - Other sectors in focus include oil majors like BP and Shell, consumer firms such as McDonald's and Starbucks, and automakers including Toyota and Volkswagen [7].

Deutsche Bank Research Global Cross-Discipline Thematic Research Date 26 July 2024 Next week...this week All eyes will be on monetary policy decisions from the Fed, the BoJ and the BoE next week. In economic data, key releases include the jobs report in the US, inflation and GDP data in Europe as well as PMIs in China. In corporate earnings, the spotlight is on big tech firms. The week ahead is centered around key central bank decisions from the Fed, the BoJ and the BoE. All eyes will be on the Fed on Wedne ...

| --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------|----------------------|-------------------| | | NSA CPI | MTM | | 1-Feb-24 | 310.33 | | | 1-Mar-24 | 312.33 | 0.65% | | 1-Apr-24 | 313.55 | 0.39% | | 1-May-24 | 314.07 | 0.17% | | 1-Jun-24 | 314.18 | 0.03% | | 1-Jul-24 | 314.62 | 0.14% | | 1-Aug-24 | 314.71 | 0.03% | | 1-Sep-24 | 314.86 | 0.05% | | 1-Oct-24 | 314.70 | -0.05% | | | | | | 1-Nov-24 | 314.32 | -0.12% | | 1-Dec-24 | 314.24 | -0.03% | | 1-Jan-25 | 315.52 | 0.41% | | 1-Feb-25 1-Mar-25 1-Apr-25 | 31 ...

Deutsche Bank Research North America High Yield Corporates Consumer Services, Leisure & Gaming Company Royal Caribbean Cruises (Nor) Date 25 July 2024 Key Takeaways from Q2'24 Results Royal Caribbean reported Adjusted EBITDA of $1.55 billion (+32.4% versus $1.17 billion in Q2'23) on revenue of $4.11 billion (+16.7% versus $3.52 billion in Q2'23). We note that Adjusted EBITDA was ahead of consensus expectations (~$1.42 billion). Management noted RCL achieved all three Trifecta goals on a trailing 12- month b ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates that overall equity positioning is still well above average despite a recent sharp drop, suggesting a cautious but optimistic outlook for the market [2][22]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant pullback in equity positioning, particularly in mega-cap growth and tech sectors, which has fallen to a two-month low, yet remains elevated compared to historical averages [2][22]. - Earnings growth for Q2 2024 is tracking just above 10%, which leaves room for further adjustments in positioning as growth expectations moderate [2][3]. - Strong inflows into equity funds, totaling approximately $22 billion this week and nearly $200 billion over the past three months, indicate a robust risk appetite among investors [4][5]. Summary by Sections Investor Positioning - Equity positioning has decreased sharply but is still above average, with a z-score of 0.50, placing it in the 74th percentile historically [22]. - Discretionary investor positioning has also declined, reaching a two-month low, while systematic strategies are at their lowest in over four months [22][25]. Sector Positioning - Positioning in mega-cap growth and tech has decreased but remains high relative to earnings growth, indicating potential for further cuts if growth slows [3][27]. - Utilities and consumer staples have seen increased positioning, while sectors like energy and consumer cyclicals have experienced declines [27][45]. Fund Flows - Equity funds have seen inflows of $22.2 billion, with notable contributions from emerging markets and Japan, while energy funds faced record outflows of $3.1 billion [28][29]. - Bond funds also attracted $16.1 billion in inflows, although this was a slowdown from previous weeks [29][50].

Deutsche Bank Research LatAm Macro and Strategy Monthly: Searching for Direction July 2024 Drausio Giacomelli Strategist +1-212-250-7355 Francisco Campos Chief LatAm Economist +1-212-250-9764 Carlos Munoz-Carcamo FX Strategist +1-212-250-2259 JP Schuchter Research Associate +1-212-250-9297 IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 041/10/2023. UNTIL 19th MARCH 2021 INCOMPLETE DISCLOSURE INFORMATION MAY HAVE BEEN DISPLAYED, PLEASE SEE APPENDIX 1 FOR FURTHER DETA ...

Deutsche Bank Research Global Rates Global Fixed Income Weekly Date 26 July 2024 Strategy Update This publication is a compilation of key research reports published over the past week. Francis Yared Strategist Matthew Raskin Strategist Soniya Sadeesh Strategist Bernd Volk Strategist Steven Zeng, CFA Strategist Ioannis Sokos Strategist Brian Lu Research Associate Gabriele Cozzi Strategist Mingyue Xin Strategist Deutsche Bank AG IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. ...

Economic Growth - China's GDP growth is expected to decelerate to 4.9% in 2024, down from previous forecasts due to weaker domestic demand and a slowdown in the services sector[1][46]. - In Q2 2024, GDP growth slowed to 4.7% YoY from 5.3% in Q1, marking the lowest sequential growth since Q4 2022[1][46]. Sector Performance - The services sector's growth slowed to 4.2% in Q2, primarily due to a deteriorating property market and reduced government spending[1][4]. - The industrial sector maintained a growth rate of 5.6% in Q2, supported by strong exports[1][4]. Household Income and Spending - Household income growth decreased to 4.5% in Q2 2024 from 6.2% in Q1 and 6.3% in 2023, leading to reduced household spending on essentials[1][6]. - Consumer inflation has turned positive but remains subdued, with expectations of gradual improvement to 0.9% by the end of 2024[1][48]. Fiscal Policy and Government Spending - Total fiscal spending shrank by 2% YoY in the first five months of 2024, indicating a downward trend in government expenditure[1][24]. - A budget revision may be necessary in H2 2024 to achieve the 5% annual growth target amid declining local government revenues[1][48]. Trade and Exports - Exports are projected to remain a bright spot, with growth driven by increasing demand from emerging markets, which saw exports to EMDEs nearly double from 2018 to 2023[1][108]. - The impact of new US and EU tariffs on Chinese exports is expected to be minimal, affecting only about 0.5% of total exports[1][123]. Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) is expected to implement a modest rate cut of 10bps by the end of 2024, facing constraints from the need to maintain currency stability[1][56]. - The PBoC's focus on exchange rate stability limits the scope for aggressive monetary easing, despite the need for support amid low inflation and softening credit demand[1][116]. Investment Trends - There has been a notable increase in Panda bond issuance, with a total of RMB 45 billion issued between January and May 2024, driven by low lending costs[1][304]. - The net issuance of Dim Sum bonds has also increased significantly, reflecting the favorable interest rate differential and the need for onshore enterprises to access cheaper USD funding[1][330].