Summary of Goldman Sachs Global Equity Strategy Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Goldman Sachs Global Equity Strategy** and provides insights into the **equity market outlook for 2025**. It discusses the performance of global equities, particularly in the context of rising valuations and economic growth. Key Points and Arguments Market Performance and Valuation - Global equities have risen **40% since October 2023**, with the MSCI world index up nearly **60%** since the trough in 2022 triggered by rising interest rates [9][12] - The S&P 500's performance in 2024 has been one of the strongest since **1928**, driven by optimism regarding peak inflation and a potential Federal Reserve pivot [9][11] - Approximately **50%** of the equity return globally in 2024 has come from valuation expansion, reflecting growing optimism in lower inflation and interest rates [12][16] - The current **12-month forward P/E ratio** for the US equity market is significantly above its historical averages, indicating stretched valuations [22][23] Economic Growth and Earnings - The forecast for total equity returns in USD is **10% through to the end of 2025**, driven largely by earnings growth rather than further valuation expansion [5][48] - The report anticipates **2.5% real GDP growth** in the US for 2025, which is above the consensus estimate of **1.9%** [33] - Earnings growth is expected to be positive but lower than consensus forecasts, reflecting the view that margins have peaked in most regions [46][48] Investment Themes and Strategies - The report highlights four key investment themes: 1. **Market Broadening Opportunities**: Emphasizing diversification to improve risk-adjusted returns [5] 2. **Selective Value**: Identifying undervalued sectors, particularly in materials and utilities in the US, and telecoms and real estate in Europe [86][90] 3. **Geographical Diversification**: Favoring Japan and selected emerging markets for their low PEG ratios [89][90] 4. **Enhanced Capital Market Activity**: Anticipating increased M&A activity due to deregulation and stronger growth forecasts [93] Risks and Concerns - The report identifies two primary risks: 1. The potential for a market correction due to front-loaded returns and unknowns around tariff risks impacting global growth and inflation [51] 2. The unusual degree of market concentration, with the top 10 US stocks accounting for over **20%** of the global index value, raising concerns about sustainability [55][58] Diversification and Alpha Generation - The report advocates for diversification strategies to enhance risk-adjusted returns, particularly through investments in sectors outside of technology and focusing on companies with strong fundamentals [66][80] - The **Ex Tech Compounders** strategy is highlighted as a way to capture growth outside of the dominant technology sector [76][80] Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes that while the largest US companies have outperformed due to strong profit growth, there are risks associated with high market concentration and valuation [58][65] - The **realized volatility** of Ex Tech Compounders is significantly lower than that of the Magnificent 7, suggesting they can enhance portfolio stability [83] - The report concludes with selected investment ideas across the highlighted themes, including equal-weight S&P 500, US AI Phase 3 stocks, and high dividend yield strategies in Asia [99] This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic recommendations from the Goldman Sachs Global Equity Strategy conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current equity market landscape and future outlook.

Summary of NVIDIA Corp (NVDA.O) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: NVIDIA Corp (NVDA.O) - **Industry**: Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) and related technologies - **Headquarters**: Santa Clara, CA - **Founded**: January 1993 by Jen-Hsun Huang and partners Key Financial Insights - **Upcoming Earnings Report**: NVIDIA is set to report its October quarter results after market close on November 20, 2024 - **Sales Projections**: - **October Quarter**: Total sales expected at $33 billion, with data center sales at $29 billion, slightly below expectations of $34 billion and $30 billion respectively [8] - **January Quarter**: Total sales projected at $36.5 billion, with data center sales at $32 billion, compared to expectations of $37.5 billion and $33 billion [8] - **Gross Margin**: Expected to be 73% for January quarter, approximately 30 basis points below market expectations due to a higher mix of H200 products [8] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - FY2025 EPS revised up by $0.10 to $2.78, FY2026 by $0.55 to $4.86, and FY2027 by $0.08 to $5.59 [8] - **Target Price**: Increased from $150 to $170 based on a consistent 35x P/E ratio on revised CY25 EPS [8] Market Performance - **Current Share Price**: $145.26 as of November 11, 2024 - **Expected Total Return**: 17.1% with no expected dividend yield [9] - **Market Capitalization**: Approximately $3,563.23 million [9] Growth Projections - **Sales Revenue Growth**: - 2024: 125.9% increase - 2025: 105.9% increase - 2026: 75.2% increase - 2027: 19.5% increase [15] - **Core NPAT Growth**: Expected to grow from $8.37 billion in 2024 to $152.55 billion in 2027 [15] Risks and Challenges - **Competitive Risks**: Potential loss of market share in gaming could negatively impact stock performance [30] - **Adoption Rates**: Slower-than-expected adoption of new platforms may lead to lower sales in data centers and gaming [30] - **Market Volatility**: Fluctuations in the automotive and data center markets could add volatility to stock performance [30] - **Cryptomining Impact**: Changes in the cryptomining landscape could affect gaming sales [30] Investment Strategy - **Recommendation**: Maintain a "Buy" rating on NVIDIA due to strong secular growth opportunities in AI [28] - **Valuation**: Target price reflects a valuation based on a 35x P/E multiple, aligning with historical averages [29] Conclusion NVIDIA Corp is positioned for significant growth driven by its leadership in GPU technology and expanding opportunities in AI. However, investors should remain cautious of competitive pressures and market volatility that could impact future performance.

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 Buy Short-Term View: Downside, expires 04-DEC-24 Price (08 Nov 24 15:00) Rmb218.910 Target price Rmb335.700 Expected share price return 53.4% Expected dividend yield 0.5% Expected total return 53.9% Market Cap Rmb40,438M US$5,633M 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Flash | 10 Nov 2024 18:25:19 ET │ 11 pages Beijing Roborock ( ...

Summary of New Oriental Education & Technology (EDU) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: New Oriental Education & Technology (EDU) - **Ticker**: EDU (H-share: 9901.HK) - **Market Cap**: $10.3 billion - **Enterprise Value**: $5.0 billion - **Current Price**: $61.87 (Target Price: $87.00, Upside: 40.6%) [2][4] Key Industry Insights - **Regulatory Environment**: - Recent draft regulations from Beijing emphasize that after-school tutoring (AST) institutions must comply with the Double Reduction policy, restricting the approval of new academic AST institutions [8][10]. - The draft specifies that local governments cannot approve new academic AST institutions for students in grades 1-9 and high school, requiring existing institutions to re-register [8][9]. - The regulatory landscape is expected to remain stable, aligning with previous national policies [10]. - **Market Dynamics**: - Offline licensed subject tutoring supply has been in continuous decline year-to-date, while growth in offline non-academic tutoring has moderated [11]. - As of November 2024, there are 297 academic and 1,044 non-academic tutoring institutions in Beijing [11]. Financial Performance and Projections - **Revenue Growth**: - Projected revenue growth for FY24-27E is 23% CAGR, with EPS growth at 34% CAGR [36]. - Revenue estimates for FY25E are $5,165.4 million, with EBITDA of $718.0 million [2]. - **Cash Management**: - The company has a net cash position of approximately $3.1 billion, excluding deferred revenue [34]. - Management has committed to returning capital to shareholders, including a $100 million special dividend and $300 million in share buybacks for FY24 [20]. Strategic Developments - **New Headquarters**: - Plans for a new headquarters building with a gross floor area of 200,000 sqm are underway to accommodate a growing workforce, with completion expected in 3-5 years [18]. - The company anticipates a 10-15% CAGR in total headcount from FY24-27E [18]. - **Overseas Study Demand**: - Demand for overseas study has rebounded, with the US accounting for less than 20% of total overseas study demand for Chinese students [7][23]. - The number of US F-1 student visas issued to Chinese students has decreased by 4% year-over-year, remaining 22% below FY19 levels [23][32]. Investment Thesis - **Valuation**: - The current valuation is considered appealing, with a forward P/E multiple below historical averages [36]. - Target prices are set at $87 for EDU and HK$68 for 9901.HK based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) analysis [7][34]. - **Risks**: - Key risks include potential regulatory changes, weaker-than-expected capacity expansion, and geopolitical factors affecting demand for overseas test preparation [34]. Conclusion - **Outlook**: - New Oriental Education & Technology is positioned for growth in a stable regulatory environment, with a strong focus on expanding its educational services and managing shareholder returns effectively [36].

Addressing key investor questions post 3Q results; down to Neutral as Roborock enters a transition period 5 November 2024 | 6:29PM CST Beijing Roborock Technology (688169.SS) Roborock reported below-expected 3Q24 results which were primarily dragged by revenue decline/margin contraction in Europe due to the ongoing channel shift towards direct sales to consumers/retailers (first take). Key investor questions we have received are centered around three areas: 1) Roborock's competitive positioning within the g ...

31 October 2024 | 11:33AM EDT 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 USA: Employment Cost Index Below Expectations in Q3; Core PCE in Line With Expectations; Initial Claims Fall | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Summary of NavInfo (002405.SZ) 3Q24 Results and Analysis Company Overview - **Company**: NavInfo (002405.SZ) - **Industry**: Smart vehicle technology and data services Key Financial Results - **3Q24 Revenue**: Rmb861 million, up 5.4% year-over-year (yoy), slightly below the consensus estimate by 2.3% [1][4] - **3Q24 Gross Profit**: Rmb325 million, an increase of 8.9% yoy, with gross margin expanding to 37.7%, up 1.2 percentage points yoy and 7.8 percentage points quarter-over-quarter (qoq) [1][4] - **Operating Expenses (Opex)**: Decreased by 26.2% yoy to Rmb424 million, leading to a reduction in opex ratio from 70.3% in 3Q23 to 49.3% in 3Q24, indicating effective cost control [1][4] - **Net Loss**: Narrowed to Rmb131 million, a reduction of 34.5% yoy and 29.5% qoq, also below consensus estimates by 26.9% [1][4] - **Operating Cash Flow (OCF)**: Turned positive with inflows of Rmb136 million compared to outflows of Rmb136 million in 3Q23, attributed to improved cash collection and lower staff costs [1] Market Outlook and Valuation - **Target Price**: Rmb6.3, based on a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 4.0x for 2H24-1H25E, which is 1.5 standard deviations below the 5-year average [5] - **Market Capitalization**: Rmb23.288 billion (approximately US$3.266 billion) [2] Investment Rating - **Citi's Recommendation**: Sell, with an expected share price return of -35.8% and a dividend yield of 0.0% [2] Risks and Considerations - **Upside Risks**: Faster-than-expected revenue and earnings growth due to reduced industry competition [6] - **Downside Risks**: 1. Lower-than-expected downstream demand, potentially impacted by pandemic resurgences and economic downturns [6] 2. Increased industry competition, particularly in autonomous driving and automotive-grade chips [6] 3. Delayed margin recovery due to ongoing high R&D expenditures [6] Additional Insights - The company has seen a significant rally of 59% from its low in September 2024, but analysts believe that near-term upside is limited without a substantial business turnaround [1] - The strategic focus on smart vehicles and the rising penetration of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) positions NavInfo for potential growth, but the current financial performance indicates challenges ahead [5][6] Conclusion NavInfo's 3Q24 results reflect a mixed performance with improved gross profit and reduced losses, but ongoing risks and a cautious market outlook suggest that investors should be wary of potential challenges in the near term. The recommendation to sell indicates a lack of confidence in the stock's ability to achieve significant price appreciation in the foreseeable future.

V i e w p o i n t | 28 Oct 2024 09:33:48 ET │ 11 pages Yutong Bus (600066.SS) 3Q Result Beat; Lift FY24 NP to Rmb3.53bn CITI'S TAKE Yutong reported 3Q24 NP of Rmb758mn (+31% YoY), beating market consensus of Rmb630-660mn, which we mainly attribute to top line beat and better-than-expected Opex control. The company reallocated aftersales service items from selling expense to gross profit, weighing 9M24 GPM by 3-4ppt, and if adjusting back, we estimate 3Q24 adjusted GPM around 22.5%, in-line with market conse ...

SEPTEMBER 2024 1 HUNGRY FOR GOOD JOBS: FOOD SERVICE WORKERS IN PUBLIC SCHOOLS LABOR CENTER SARA HINKLEY A REPORT FROM THE UC BERKELEY LABOR CENTER Acknowledgements Many thanks to Aida Farmand at the UC Berkeley Labor Center for modeling the public program participation of food service workers. This report benefited greatly from the feedback of Jennifer Gaddis of the University of Wisconsin (as well as her years of work in this area) and from conversations with Debbie Friedman and Eva Ringstrom with the Food ...