10 February 2025 Global Energy Storage Global Energy Storage: Energy storage demand continues to surge on renewables and data centers Neil Beveridge, Ph.D. +852 2918 5741 neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com Brian Ho, CFA +852 2918 5772 brian.ho@bernsteinsg.com Hengliang Zhang +852 2918 7871 hengliang.zhang@bernsteinsg.com ESS battery demand increased by 74% y-o-y to 321GWh in 2024. We expect it will grow by 31% to 420GWh in 2025, but we also think this could be conservative given the project pipeline. With more ...

February 7, 2025 05:00 AM GMT In this note we provide a list of considerations and relevant data points for investors looking to assess environmental and social (E&S) impacts of recent tariffs news (10% additional tariff on imports from China that went into effect this week and a 25% tariff on most goods imported from Canada and Mexico targeted to go into effect in early March). Overall, whether supply chains can diversify and/or tariffs drive demand destruction (as opposed to margin pressure for businesses ...

5 February 2025 Global Energy Storage Global Energy Storage: Gigafactory expansion still strong but investment slowing Neil Beveridge, Ph.D. +852 2918 5741 neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com Brian Ho, CFA +852 2918 5772 brian.ho@bernsteinsg.com Hengliang Zhang +852 2918 7871 hengliang.zhang@bernsteinsg.com Global battery manufacturing capacity is estimated to grow by 43% y-o-y in 2025 which will exceed demand growth of 25-30%. Global battery capacity grew by 34% y-o-y to 2.8TWh in YE24 (vs. demand of 1.2TWh). C ...

Summary of Global Energy Storage Outlook 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Global Energy Storage** industry, particularly the **battery market** and **electric vehicle (EV)** sales dynamics in 2024 and projections for 2025. Key Points and Arguments Battery Demand and Market Dynamics - Total battery demand is projected to grow by **30% year-on-year (y-o-y)** in 2025, driven by robust growth in **China's EV sales** and recovery in **European EV demand** due to stricter CO2 emissions standards [2][10] - In 2024, battery demand growth was also **30%**, primarily due to better-than-expected performance in **China** and **global energy storage systems (ESS)**, despite a slowdown in the US and Europe [2][10] - The **xEV sales** in China are expected to grow by **20%** in 2025, with total global xEV sales reaching **20 million units** [32][37] Regional Performance - **China** achieved an EV penetration rate of **50%** in 2024, significantly outperforming the US and Europe, where penetration rates were **10%** and **20%**, respectively [19][17] - The **US** market is anticipated to grow by **10%** y-o-y in 2025, although challenges remain due to potential policy changes and infrastructure issues [36][10] - **European EV sales** are expected to rebound with a **30%** growth in 2025, driven by new emissions regulations [35][10] Pricing and Profitability - The report notes a **60% collapse in lithium prices** and a **30% decline in battery prices**, which negatively impacted revenue and earnings for battery manufacturers, particularly in Korea [3][10] - Lithium prices are expected to stabilize at **$12,000 per ton** in 2025, with a potential recovery in 2026 [3][10] Capacity and Utilization - Total battery capacity is projected to grow by **45%** y-o-y to **4,431 GWh** in 2025, with local capacity expected to meet demand across major economies [4][10] - Utilization rates for battery plants, particularly in China, are currently low (30-40%), but improvements are anticipated as companies focus on efficiency [4][10] Market Share and Competitive Landscape - **CATL** remains the market leader with a **35%** share, followed by **BYD** at **18%** and **LGES** at **13%** [5][10] - The report highlights **CATL** and **Samsung SDI** as top picks for investment, citing their strong growth potential and favorable valuations [6][10] Investment Implications - Despite challenges in the US and European markets, the overall outlook for battery demand remains positive, with expectations of revenue and earnings growth in 2025 [10][6] - The report recommends **Tianqi Lithium** and **CATL** as top investment opportunities, emphasizing their strong market positions and growth prospects [6][10] Additional Important Insights - The report indicates that the destocking cycle in the Chinese battery value chain has largely ended, but high inventory levels in Korean and Western companies may pose short-term challenges [3][10] - The performance of battery cell makers has been better than that of battery components and lithium companies, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [21][10] This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed outlook on the global energy storage market, highlighting key trends, challenges, and investment opportunities for 2025.

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 8 January 2025 Global Research European Energy Too easy to be bearish The European Energy sector lagged the market in 2024 driven by the combination of EPS downgrades (-25%) and uncertainties related to OPEC+ policy. However, looking ahead, we think fears of a sharp decline in oil prices are overdone and see a number of positive developments, including the return of EPS momentum, falling breakevens and transition strategies evolving in favour of RoACE. Meanwhile, t ...

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