The Beige Book Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve District May 2025 F E D E R A L R E S E R V E S Y S T E M | About This Publication | | ii | | --- | --- | --- | | National Summary | | 1 | | Federal Reserve Bank of Boston | | 5 | | Federal Reserve Bank of New York | | 8 | | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia | | 12 | | Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland | | 16 | | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond | | 20 | | Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta | | 23 | | Federal Reserve Bank ...

For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT May 7, 2025 Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further. The C ...

The Beige Book Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve District January 2025 About This Publication What is the Beige Book? The Beige Book is a Federal Reserve System publication about current economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. It characterizes regional economic conditions and pros- pects based on a variety of mostly qualitative information, gathered directly from each District's sources. Reports are published eight times per year. What is the purpos ...

FOMC Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee March 18–19, 2025 FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee March 18–19, 2025 A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System was held in the offices of the Board of Governors on Tuesday, March 18, 2025, at 9:00 a.m. and continued on Wednesday, March 19, 2025, at 9:00 a.m.1 Review of Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communications Committee participants continued thei ...

For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT March 19, 2025 Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dua ...

Core Insights - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on March 18-19, 2025, resulted in economic projections for real GDP growth, unemployment rate, and inflation from 2025 to 2027, reflecting participants' assessments of appropriate monetary policy [1][4][5] Economic Projections - Projections for real GDP growth indicate a range of outcomes, with the median expected to change from the previous year [5][44] - The unemployment rate is projected to average in the fourth quarter of each indicated year, with specific percentage changes noted [5][44] - Inflation measures, including PCE inflation and core PCE inflation, are projected as percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year [5][44] Monetary Policy Assessment - Each participant's assessment of appropriate monetary policy includes a path for the federal funds rate, with projections for the target range or level at the end of each specified calendar year [5][10][17] - The longer-run projections represent the expected convergence of each variable under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further economic shocks [5][44] Uncertainty and Risks - Participants provided assessments of uncertainty and risks surrounding their projections, indicating whether they perceive the risks as balanced, weighted to the upside, or downside [20][24][27] - Historical forecast errors inform the confidence intervals around projections, suggesting a 70% probability that actual outcomes will fall within specified ranges [20][46] Data Visualization - Figures illustrate the medians, central tendencies, and ranges of economic projections for GDP growth, unemployment rate, and inflation from 2025 to 2027 [8][19][26] - The distribution of participants' projections for various economic indicators is visually represented, highlighting the range of views across FOMC members [12][17][25]

National Summary - Overall economic activity rose slightly since mid-January, with six Districts reporting no change, four reporting modest or moderate growth, and two noting slight contractions [10] - Consumer spending was lower on balance, with solid demand for essential goods but increased price sensitivity for discretionary items, particularly among lower-income shoppers [10] - Manufacturing activity exhibited slight to modest increases across a majority of Districts, with concerns over potential trade policy changes [10] - Residential real estate markets were mixed, with ongoing inventory constraints and modest declines in construction activity for both residential and nonresidential units [10] Labor Markets - Employment nudged slightly higher on balance, with four Districts reporting a slight increase and seven reporting no change [11] - Job growth was noted in healthcare and finance, while declines were reported in manufacturing and information technology [11] - Labor availability improved for many sectors, although some sectors experienced a tight labor market [11] - Wages grew at a modest-to-moderate pace, slightly slower than the previous report, with easing wage pressures in several Districts [11] Prices - Prices increased moderately in most Districts, with several reporting an uptick in the pace of increase relative to the previous reporting period [14] - Input price pressures were generally greater than sales price pressures, particularly in manufacturing and construction [14] - Many Districts noted higher prices for food ingredients impacting food processors and restaurants, with substantial increases in insurance and freight transportation costs [14] Highlights by Federal Reserve District - **Boston**: Economic activity increased slowly, with a surge in home sales and modest price increases, but employment declined slightly [15] - **New York**: Regional economic activity was little changed, with slight employment growth and moderate wage growth [16] - **Philadelphia**: Business activity declined slightly, with continued slight employment growth and modest wage and price increases [17] - **Cleveland**: Business activity was flat, with consumer spending down and employment levels remaining unchanged [18] - **Richmond**: The regional economy grew modestly, with consumer spending increasing modestly and manufacturing activity unchanged [19] - **Atlanta**: The economy expanded at a modest pace, with steady employment and modest increases in wages and prices [20] - **Chicago**: Economic activity was little changed, with slight increases in employment and moderate wage growth [21] - **St. Louis**: Economic activity and employment were flat, with moderate price increases above expectations [22] - **Minneapolis**: Economic activity was steady, with moderate wage and price increases [23] - **Kansas City**: Economic activity was unchanged, with moderate price increases and steady employment levels [24] - **Dallas**: The economy expanded moderately, with steady employment and little change in wage and price growth [25] - **San Francisco**: Economic activity ticked down, with stable employment levels and slight price and wage growth [26] Banking and Finance - Banking activity was slightly higher among Districts that reported on it, with some banks noting a decline in demand for loans [10][51] - Small-to-medium-sized banks reported a decline in demand for all loan types, while commercial lending saw a slight increase [89]

Core Points - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held a meeting on January 28-29, 2025, focusing on monetary policy strategy and economic conditions [3][4][6] - The committee reaffirmed its commitment to a 2 percent inflation target and discussed potential revisions to its monetary policy framework in light of recent economic developments [9][14][50] - Economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace, with the unemployment rate stabilizing at a low level and inflation remaining somewhat elevated [24][69][70] Organizational Matters - New members and alternates of the FOMC were elected, including Jerome H. Powell as Chair and John C. Williams as Vice Chair [4][6] - The Federal Reserve Bank of New York was selected to execute transactions for the System Open Market Account (SOMA) [6][7] Monetary Policy Review - The committee is reviewing its monetary policy framework, focusing on the Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, with discussions expected to continue in upcoming meetings [9][15] - The review aims to adapt to evolving economic conditions and enhance transparency and accountability in monetary policymaking [10][11] Economic Conditions - Real GDP rose at a solid pace in 2024, with consumer price inflation measured at 2.4 percent in November, down from 2.7 percent a year earlier [26][27] - Labor market conditions remained solid, with the unemployment rate at 4.1 percent in December and average hourly earnings rising 3.9 percent over the past year [27][28] Financial Market Developments - Broad equity price indexes declined moderately, while credit spreads remained tight [16][17] - The expected path of the federal funds rate indicated a potential quarter-point reduction during 2025, with market expectations shifting towards later rate reductions [17][18] Inflation Outlook - Participants noted that inflation had eased significantly but remained above the 2 percent target, with total PCE prices rising about 2.6 percent over the 12 months ending in December [50][51] - Factors contributing to downward pressure on inflation include easing nominal wage growth and well-anchored longer-term inflation expectations [52][53] Committee Policy Actions - The FOMC decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4¼ to 4½ percent, emphasizing the need for further progress on inflation before making additional adjustments [66][71] - The committee will continue to reduce its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt, while monitoring economic conditions closely [66][67]

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is ...

The Beige Book Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve District January 2025 F E D E R A L R E S E R V E S Y S T E M | About This Publication | | ii | | --- | --- | --- | | National Summary | | 1 | | Federal Reserve Bank of Boston | | 5 | | Federal Reserve Bank of New York | | 8 | | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia | | 12 | | Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland | | 16 | | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond | | 20 | | Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta | | 24 | | Federal Reserve ...