Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is ...

The Beige Book Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve District January 2025 F E D E R A L R E S E R V E S Y S T E M | About This Publication | | ii | | --- | --- | --- | | National Summary | | 1 | | Federal Reserve Bank of Boston | | 5 | | Federal Reserve Bank of New York | | 8 | | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia | | 12 | | Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland | | 16 | | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond | | 20 | | Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta | | 24 | | Federal Reserve ...

FOMC Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee December 17–18, 2024 FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee December 17–18, 2024 A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System was held in the offices of the Board of Governors on Tuesday, December 17, 2024, at 10:30 a.m. and continued on Wednesday, December 18, 2024, at 9:00 a.m.1 Developments in Financial Markets and Open Market Operations The manager turned first ...

Economic Projections - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants submitted projections for real GDP growth, unemployment rate, and inflation from 2024 to 2027, with longer-run projections based on appropriate monetary policy assumptions [2] - The median projection for real GDP growth in 2024 is 2.5%, with a range of 2.4–2.5%, and the unemployment rate is projected at 4.2%, with a range of 4.2–4.5% [5] - PCE inflation is projected at 2.4% for 2024, with a range of 2.4–2.5%, while core PCE inflation is projected at 2.8%, with a range of 2.8–2.9% [5] Federal Funds Rate Projections - The median projection for the federal funds rate in 2024 is 4.4%, with a range of 4.4–4.6%, and it is expected to decline to 3.0% in the longer run [5] - The September projections for the federal funds rate in 2024 were 4.4%, with a range of 4.4–4.6%, and the longer-run projection was 2.9% [5] Uncertainty and Risks - FOMC participants assessed uncertainty and risks around their economic projections, with some participants judging the uncertainty as "broadly similar" to historical levels [36] - The risks to GDP growth were assessed as "broadly balanced" by some participants, while others viewed them as weighted to the downside or upside [35] - The uncertainty around the federal funds rate projections is significant, with historical confidence intervals being quite wide [80] Historical Projection Errors - The average historical projection error for real GDP growth in 2024 is ±0.8 percentage points, while for the unemployment rate, it is ±0.1 percentage points [76] - The error range for short-term interest rates in 2024 is ±0.1 percentage points, reflecting the uncertainty in forecasting the federal funds rate [76]

Economic Overview - Economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace, with labor market conditions easing and the unemployment rate remaining low despite a slight increase [1] - Inflation has made progress toward the 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated [1] Monetary Policy Goals - The Committee aims to achieve maximum employment and maintain inflation at 2 percent over the longer run [2] - Risks to achieving employment and inflation goals are roughly balanced, with the economic outlook remaining uncertain [2] Federal Funds Rate Adjustment - The Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent [3] - The Committee will continue reducing holdings of Treasury securities, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities [3] Monetary Policy Implementation - The Board of Governors voted unanimously to lower the interest rate paid on reserve balances to 4.4 percent, effective December 19, 2024 [8] - The Federal Open Market Committee directed the Open Market Desk to maintain the federal funds rate in the target range of 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent [8] - Standing overnight repurchase agreement operations will be conducted with a minimum bid rate of 4.5 percent and an aggregate operation limit of $500 billion [8] - Standing overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations will be conducted at an offering rate of 4.25 percent with a per-counterparty limit of $160 billion per day [8] Treasury and Agency Securities Management - Principal payments from Treasury securities exceeding $25 billion per month will be rolled over at auction, with coupon securities redeemed up to the monthly cap [8] - Principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities exceeding $35 billion per month will be reinvested into Treasury securities [8] Primary Credit Rate Adjustment - The Board of Governors approved a 1/4 percentage point decrease in the primary credit rate to 4.5 percent, effective December 19, 2024 [10]

The Beige Book Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve District November 2024 F E D E R A L R E S E R V E S Y S T E M Contents | --- | |----------------------------------------| | | | About This Publication . | | National Summary | | Federal Reserve Bank of Boston . | | Federal Reserve Bank of New York . | | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia . | | Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland | | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond . | | Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta | | Federal Reserv ...

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee November 6–7, 2024 A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System was held in the offices of the Board of Governors on Wednesday, November 6, 2024, at 10:00 a.m. and continued on Thursday, November 7, 2024, at 9:00 a.m.1 Developments in Financial Markets and Open Market Operations The manager turned first to a review of developments in financial markets. Nominal Treasury yields rose notably over the p ...

各位投资者大家早上好我是方证宏观的张家伟今天早上和大家做一个美联储11月FMC会议的一个分享 刚结束的这个FOMC会议相对于美国大神来说的话就要平淡很多了我们主要是挑两个这个比较重要的资产价格的反应来讲然后对未来美联储的这个货币政策的前景做这个短期中期和长期的一个展望第一个资产的话就是这个美债利率主要是两年美债利率 一度从4.19反弹到4.26然后又回到了4.19之所以出现这么一个变化的话是因为美联储的这个声明的话相对还是比较鹰派的这次会议如期降了25个币降到了4.5到4.75但声明里面的话是把这个对通胀回落更有信心这件事情这句话给删掉了 让市场一度担心说美联储对未来通胀的信心削弱了12月是否会有暂停降息这件事情发生导致两年美债利率出现了一个反弹而在发布会上的话鲍威尔还是一副很开放式的这么一个态度就是12月份可降可不降明年的话有加息的再加息的这么一个风险一切皆有可能 但是他也解释到说为什么要删掉这句话呢因为第一已经获得了很大的对通胀的这个信心了通胀确实从很高的位置掉下来了第二预期未来通胀进程可能还是颠簸的 因为你已经这个就是距离通胀目标比较近了那未来要去实现通胀目标这个难点是在于这些比较有粘性的这个通胀的服务 ...

The Beige Book Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve District October 2024 F E D E R A L R E S E R V E S Y S T E M Contents | --- | |----------------------------------------| | | | About This Publication . | | National Summary | | Federal Reserve Bank of Boston . | | Federal Reserve Bank of New York . | | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia . | | Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland | | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond . | | Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta | | Federal Reserve ...

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee September 17–18, 2024 A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System was held in the offices of the Board of Governors on Tuesday, September 17, 2024, at 10:30 a.m. and continued on Wednesday, September 18, 2024, at 9:00 a.m.1 Developments in Financial Markets and Open Market Operations The manager turned first to a review of developments in financial markets. Nominal Treasury yields declined notably ...