Economic Overview - The U.S. economy has demonstrated resilience amid significant changes in economic policy, with the labor market near maximum employment and inflation decreasing from post-pandemic highs [2][4] - The unemployment rate has increased by almost one percentage point, a trend typically associated with recessions, while the labor market remains balanced [4][11] - GDP growth has slowed to 1.2% in the first half of the year, down from 2.5% in 2024, primarily due to a decline in consumer spending [12] Labor Market Dynamics - Payroll job growth has slowed to an average of 35,000 per month over the past three months, a significant drop from 168,000 per month in 2024 [8] - The unemployment rate stands at a historically low level of 4.2%, indicating a stable labor market despite the slowdown in job growth [8][10] - Labor supply has softened, with a notable decrease in labor force growth attributed to tighter immigration policies [10][11] Inflation Trends - Total PCE prices rose by 2.6% over the 12 months ending in July, with core PCE prices increasing by 2.9% [13] - Higher tariffs are contributing to price increases in certain goods, with expectations that these effects will accumulate over time [15][16] - Inflation expectations remain well anchored, consistent with the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2% [19][48] Monetary Policy Framework - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework is designed to promote maximum employment and stable prices across various economic conditions [22][36] - The revised consensus statement emphasizes the importance of well-anchored inflation expectations and the need for flexibility in monetary policy [38][48] - The Federal Reserve will continue to conduct public reviews of its monetary policy framework approximately every five years to adapt to changing economic conditions [50]

Core Points - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is reviewing its monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication practices, with significant progress noted towards revising the consensus statement on longer-run goals and monetary policy strategy [3] - Financial market developments indicate stable policy rate expectations, with equity prices increasing and credit spreads narrowing, reflecting a resilient U.S. economy [4][8] - Inflation remains elevated, with consumer price inflation estimated at 2.5% and core inflation at 2.7% as of June [15] - The labor market shows solid conditions, with an unemployment rate of 4.1% and average hourly earnings rising by 3.7% year-over-year [16] - Economic growth is projected to remain low, with real GDP growth expected to be modest through 2027, influenced by various factors including tariffs and financial conditions [35][44] Financial Market Developments - The expected path of the policy rate and longer-term Treasury yields remained largely unchanged, with equity prices increasing and credit spreads narrowing [4][6] - The S&P 500 index valuations are above long-run averages, driven by optimism in technology firms benefiting from AI adoption [8] - The dollar index has depreciated slightly, indicating relative stability in foreign holdings of U.S. assets [9] Economic Situation - Real GDP expanded at a slow pace in the first half of the year, with consumer spending growth slowing and residential investment declining [14][44] - Net exports contributed positively to GDP growth in the second quarter, with a significant decline in imports following earlier front-loading [18] - Foreign economic activity showed signs of slowing, particularly in Canada, while China's GDP continued to grow moderately [19] Labor Market Insights - The labor market remains tight, with low unemployment and solid job gains, although some indicators suggest a potential softening in labor demand [42] - The participation rate has slightly decreased, and the employment-to-population ratio remains unchanged [16] Inflation and Monetary Policy Outlook - Inflation is projected to rise in the near term, with tariff effects becoming more apparent, although longer-term expectations remain anchored [38][41] - The FOMC decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4¼ to 4½ percent, with a commitment to support maximum employment and return inflation to the 2% objective [60][55] - Participants noted the importance of monitoring incoming data to inform future monetary policy adjustments, particularly in light of elevated risks to both inflation and employment [51][56]

Core Points - Economic activity growth moderated in the first half of the year, with low unemployment and solid labor market conditions, while inflation remains elevated [1] - The Federal Reserve aims for maximum employment and a long-term inflation rate of 2 percent, amidst elevated uncertainty regarding the economic outlook [2] - The target range for the federal funds rate is maintained at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent, with ongoing assessments of incoming data and risks [3][4] Monetary Policy Implementation - Effective July 31, 2025, the interest rate on reserve balances is set at 4.4 percent, with open market operations to maintain the federal funds rate within the target range [8] - Standing overnight repurchase agreement operations will have a minimum bid rate of 4.5 percent and an aggregate operation limit of $500 billion [8] - The Federal Reserve will reinvest principal payments from agency debt and mortgage-backed securities into Treasury securities, with a monthly cap of $35 billion [8]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Review - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is reviewing its monetary policy framework, focusing on assessing risks and uncertainties that impact policy strategy and communication [3][4][5] - Participants emphasized the importance of effective communication regarding risks and uncertainty to enhance transparency and accountability in monetary policy decisions [5][6] - The Committee plans to continue discussions on enhancing communication tools after completing the review of its Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy [7] Group 2: Financial Market Developments - During the intermeeting period, policy expectations and Treasury yields rose modestly, while credit spreads narrowed and equity prices increased [8] - The median respondent's expectations for real GDP growth and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation for 2025 showed some recovery from previous declines, although growth expectations remained lower than before April [8][9] - Nominal Treasury yields increased by 15 to 20 basis points, reflecting market participants' growing fiscal concerns [9][10] Group 3: Economic Situation - Consumer price inflation was estimated at 2.3% in May, with core PCE inflation at 2.6%, both lower than at the beginning of the year [19] - The unemployment rate remained low at 4.2% in May, with solid labor market conditions and a steady increase in nonfarm payrolls [20] - Real GDP was expanding at a solid pace in the second quarter, with indicators suggesting strong consumer spending and business investment [21][22] Group 4: International Trade and Economic Outlook - U.S. imports declined sharply in April following the introduction of tariffs, while exports firmed, leading to a rebound in trade flows [23] - Economic growth abroad picked up in the first quarter but showed signs of slowing in the second quarter due to lower exports to the U.S. and uncertainty in global trade policies [24] - Inflation abroad remained near central bank targets, with some countries experiencing renewed inflationary pressures [25][26] Group 5: Labor Market and Business Sector - Labor market conditions were solid, with participants noting a potential softening in hiring due to elevated uncertainty [47] - Business investment remained cautious, with firms proceeding with existing projects but hesitating to start new ones amid uncertainty [50] - Financing for larger investment projects was readily available, although some sectors, like agriculture, faced challenges from low crop prices and high input costs [50][33] Group 6: Monetary Policy Actions - The FOMC decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4¼ to 4½ percent, assessing incoming data and the evolving economic outlook [57][62] - The Committee is committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2% objective while continuing to reduce its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt [62][63] - Participants agreed to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and adjust monetary policy as necessary [58]

National Summary - Economic activity has slightly declined across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts, with half reporting slight to moderate declines, three reporting no change, and three reporting slight growth [12] - Elevated levels of economic and policy uncertainty have led to cautious business and household decisions, impacting manufacturing, consumer spending, and residential real estate [12] - Mixed reports on bank loan demand and capital spending plans, with robust activity at ports but mixed transportation and warehouse activity [12] Labor Markets - Employment levels have remained mostly unchanged, with most Districts reporting flat employment, slight increases in three Districts, and slight declines in two [13] - Lower employee turnover rates and more applicants for open positions have been noted, but hiring plans are often delayed due to uncertainty [13] - Wages continue to grow at a modest pace, with some Districts reporting easing wage pressures and upward pressure from higher living costs [13] Prices - Prices have increased at a moderate pace, with widespread expectations for faster cost and price increases in the future, particularly due to higher tariff rates [15] - Contacts have varied in their responses to rising costs, with some increasing prices, reducing profit margins, or adding temporary fees [15] Highlights by Federal Reserve District Boston - Economic activity decreased slightly, with modest declines in consumer spending and slight employment declines [16] New York - Economic activity continued to decline modestly, with steady employment but softened demand for workers [17] Philadelphia - Business activity declined modestly, with slight increases in manufacturing jobs but overall employment declines [18] Cleveland - Business activity remained flat, with a pullback in consumer spending and softer orders reported by manufacturers [19] Richmond - The regional economy grew mildly, with slight increases in consumer spending and nonfinancial services demand [20] Atlanta - The economy grew slightly, with steady employment and moderate price increases [21] Chicago - Economic activity increased slightly, with modest increases in consumer spending and employment [22] St. Louis - Economic activity remained unchanged, but the outlook has slightly deteriorated [23] Minneapolis - The District economy contracted slightly, with flat employment and moderate wage growth [24] Kansas City - Overall activity declined moderately, driven by lower retail spending and a decline in single-family home demand [25] Dallas - Economic activity was little changed, with steady nonfinancial services and subdued housing market [26] San Francisco - Economic activity slowed slightly, with stable employment levels and modest price increases [27] Sector-Specific Insights Retail and Tourism - Retail sales and restaurant sales slowed modestly, with consumers becoming more price-sensitive [32] Manufacturing - Manufacturing sales increased slightly, but demand for goods and services has slowed amid tariff uncertainty [33] Commercial Real Estate - Commercial real estate activity was flat, with mixed reports on leasing and investment sales [35] Residential Real Estate - Home sales dipped slightly, particularly in single-family homes, attributed to declining consumer confidence [36]

Core Points - Economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace despite fluctuations in net exports [1] - The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level, indicating solid labor market conditions [1] - Inflation remains somewhat elevated, contributing to increased uncertainty about the economic outlook [2] Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent [3] - The interest rate paid on reserve balances will remain at 4.4 percent, effective May 8, 2025 [9] - Open market operations will be conducted to maintain the federal funds rate within the target range [9] Operational Guidelines - Standing overnight repurchase agreement operations will have a minimum bid rate of 4.5 percent with an aggregate operation limit of $500 billion [9] - Standing overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations will be conducted at an offering rate of 4.25 percent with a per-counterparty limit of $160 billion per day [9] - The Federal Reserve will roll over principal payments from Treasury securities maturing each month that exceed a cap of $5 billion [9]

National Summary - Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late November and December, with consumer spending rising moderately and strong holiday sales reported [11] - Construction activity decreased overall due to high costs for materials and financing, while manufacturing saw a slight decline with some manufacturers stockpiling inventories in anticipation of higher tariffs [11] - Residential real estate activity remained unchanged, high mortgage rates continued to suppress demand, while commercial real estate sales edged up [11] - Nonfinancial services sector grew slightly, particularly in leisure, hospitality, and transportation, although truck freight volumes were down [11] - Agricultural conditions remained weak with lower farm incomes and weather-related challenges, while energy activity was mixed [11] Labor Markets - Employment ticked up slightly, with six Districts reporting increases and six reporting no change, particularly in healthcare and construction sectors [12] - Wage growth picked up to a moderate pace in most Districts, although some reports indicated easing wage pressures [12] Prices - Prices increased modestly overall, with growth rates ranging from flat to moderate, and input costs also rose, particularly for health insurance [14] - Contacts expected prices to continue rising in 2025, with potential for higher tariffs contributing to price increases [14] Highlights by Federal Reserve District Boston - Economic activity increased slightly, with modest increases in tourism and home sales, while prices remained mostly steady [15] New York - Economic activity increased slightly, with moderate growth in consumer spending and a slight improvement in commercial real estate markets [16] Philadelphia - Business activity continued to grow slightly, with auto sales leading consumer spending, although manufacturing reported a slight decline [17] Cleveland - Business activity grew modestly, with higher-than-anticipated retail sales, while manufacturing demand remained soft [18] Richmond - The regional economy grew modestly, with increased consumer spending and a slight uptick in commercial real estate activity [19] Atlanta - Economic activity expanded modestly, with steady employment and moderate growth in consumer spending and auto sales [20] Chicago - Economic activity increased slightly, with modest increases in consumer spending and employment, while manufacturing and business spending decreased slightly [21] St. Louis - Economic activity continued to expand slightly, with positive holiday sales reports [22] Minneapolis - Economic activity grew slightly, with moderate wage growth and a positive outlook for the year ahead [23] Kansas City - Economic activity expanded slightly, led by consumer spending, with expectations for growth in hiring and price growth [24][25] Dallas - The economy expanded moderately, with growth in manufacturing and nonfinancial services, while home sales increased slightly [26] San Francisco - Economic activity expanded slightly, with stable employment levels and modest growth in retail sales [27] Sector-Specific Insights Retail and Tourism - Retail contacts reported slight increases in revenues, while tourism activity experienced modest growth, particularly in air travel [32] Manufacturing - Manufacturing sales were flat on average, with some firms reporting unexpected softness in demand [33] IT and Software Services - Demand for IT and software services remained stable, with expectations for strong revenue growth in early 2025 [34] Commercial Real Estate - Commercial real estate activity was mostly flat, with elevated long-term interest rates limiting transactions [36] Residential Real Estate - Home sales rose modestly, supported by improved inventories, although high mortgage rates continued to suppress demand [37]

Monetary Policy Review - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) discussed the review of its monetary policy framework, focusing on labor market dynamics and the goal of maximum employment, acknowledging the difficulty in measuring maximum employment due to nonmonetary factors [3][4][5] - Participants supported the current description of maximum employment as a broad and inclusive goal, emphasizing the importance of monitoring a wide range of labor market indicators [4][6] Financial Market Developments - Treasury yields declined, equity prices fell, and credit spreads widened, reflecting increased perceived risks in the U.S. economic outlook due to weaker-than-expected consumer spending and trade policy uncertainties [7][8] - The implied average federal funds rate path shifted lower for horizons beyond mid-2025, with higher probabilities assigned to lower GDP growth and higher inflation outcomes compared to previous surveys [8][9] Economic Situation - Real GDP was expanding at a solid pace, with the unemployment rate stabilizing at 4.1% in February, while consumer price inflation was estimated at 2.5% [17][18][19] - Labor market conditions remained solid, with average monthly gains in nonfarm payrolls lower than the previous year, and the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed workers was 1.1 in February [19][20] Inflation Outlook - Inflation remained somewhat elevated, with core PCE price inflation estimated at 2.8% in February, and participants noted that inflation data in early 2025 were higher than expected [18][39] - Participants expressed concerns that inflation could be boosted by higher tariffs, with significant uncertainty surrounding the magnitude and persistence of these effects [40][41] Monetary Policy Actions - The FOMC decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4¼ to 4½ percent, with a majority agreeing to slow the pace of securities holdings reduction [52][57] - The monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities was reduced from $25 billion to $5 billion, while the cap on agency debt and mortgage-backed securities remained at $35 billion [52][57] Economic Projections - Staff projections indicated weaker real GDP growth than previously expected, with the unemployment rate forecast to edge up but remain close to its natural rate [33][34] - The staff's inflation projection was slightly higher for 2025, reflecting higher-than-expected incoming data, with inflation expected to decline to 2% by 2027 [34][35]

Core Viewpoint - Recent indicators suggest that economic activity is expanding at a solid pace, with a stable low unemployment rate and elevated inflation levels [1][2]. Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent, with a commitment to support maximum employment and return inflation to a 2 percent objective [3][8]. - The FOMC will slow the pace of decline in its securities holdings, reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion starting in April, while maintaining a cap of $35 billion on agency debt and mortgage-backed securities [3][8]. - The interest rate paid on reserve balances will remain at 4.4 percent, effective March 20, 2025 [8]. Economic Monitoring - The FOMC will continue to assess incoming data and the evolving economic outlook, being prepared to adjust monetary policy if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals [4][5]. - The assessments will consider a wide range of information, including labor market conditions, inflation pressures, and international developments [5]. Voting and Consensus - The monetary policy action was supported by all voting members except Christopher J. Waller, who preferred to maintain the current pace of decline in securities holdings [6].

Core Insights - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on March 18-19, 2025, resulted in economic projections for real GDP growth, unemployment rate, and inflation from 2025 to 2027, reflecting participants' assessments of appropriate monetary policy [1][4][5] Economic Projections - Projections for real GDP growth indicate a range of outcomes, with the median expected to change from the previous year [5][44] - The unemployment rate is projected to average in the fourth quarter of each indicated year, with specific percentage changes noted [5][44] - Inflation measures, including PCE inflation and core PCE inflation, are projected as percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year [5][44] Monetary Policy Assessment - Each participant's assessment of appropriate monetary policy includes a path for the federal funds rate, with projections for the target range or level at the end of each specified calendar year [5][10][17] - The longer-run projections represent the expected convergence of each variable under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further economic shocks [5][44] Uncertainty and Risks - Participants provided assessments of uncertainty and risks surrounding their projections, indicating whether they perceive the risks as balanced, weighted to the upside, or downside [20][24][27] - Historical forecast errors inform the confidence intervals around projections, suggesting a 70% probability that actual outcomes will fall within specified ranges [20][46] Data Visualization - Figures illustrate the medians, central tendencies, and ranges of economic projections for GDP growth, unemployment rate, and inflation from 2025 to 2027 [8][19][26] - The distribution of participants' projections for various economic indicators is visually represented, highlighting the range of views across FOMC members [12][17][25]