February 10, 2025 04:45 PM GMT China – Power Utilities | Asia Pacific Expert Call Takeaways: New Policy on New Energy Tariffs and Market Trading We hosted Dr. Tao from the NDRC Energy Research Institute to explain the newly announced market reform policy on new energy power tariffs and address key investor queries. Key Takeaways New energy to fully enter market trading: The accelerated market reform policy on new energy does not seek to monitor or control the pace of renewable capacity addition, but rather ...

February 10, 2025 01:54 PM GMT China Data Centers | Asia Pacific Revisiting the DC into REITs Thesis; Bull Case In Sight We continue to like China IDCs. Despite the rally, we still see big upside ahead as REITs issuance plays out. High leverage is a double edge sword, magnifying fundamental changes. We are in a demand upcycle and interest rate downcycle. Data center injections into REITs: since our note on this trend (see here), we have observed fast developments on this front in the past three months: We h ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Solar - **Recent Performance**: China solar names' share prices increased by 5% on February 7, 2025, outperforming the SHCOMP Index (+1%) and SZCOMP Index (+2%) [1][5][15] Core Insights and Arguments - **Demand and Supply Expectations**: Anticipation of sequential improvement in demand and supply post-Chinese New Year (CNY) is driving market optimism, alongside hopes for policy intervention to curb supply [1][5][15] - **Polysilicon Price Outlook**: Polysilicon is expected to see a meaningful price increase around mid-to-end of Q2 2025 due to demand seasonality and current production utilization levels [1][5][11] - **Daqo's Position**: Daqo is placed on Positive Catalyst Watch due to its favorable risk/reward profile, especially if a price increase occurs [1][11][15] - **Valuation Ratings**: - **Daqo (DQ US)**: Overweight (OW) rating with a price target of $27.10 [3][14][22] - **Tongwei (600438 CH)**: Underweight (UW) rating due to excessive valuation despite potential benefits from polysilicon price hikes [1][29][36] Company-Specific Insights Daqo - **Market Cap**: $1.296 billion [3] - **Financial Estimates**: - FY24E Revenue: $1.188 billion, Adj. EPS: -$3.12 [17][26] - FY25E Revenue: $1.928 billion, Adj. EPS: $0.32 [17][26] - **Catalyst Watch**: Expected price reaction to polysilicon prices starting around May 6, 2025, with potential consensus earnings lift [11][16] - **Asset Impairment**: Recent profit warning indicates a clearing event, with expectations of improved profitability in 2025 [11][22] Tongwei - **Market Cap**: $14.051 billion [28] - **Financial Estimates**: - FY24E Revenue: Rmb117.953 million, Adj. EPS: -Rmb1.14 [28][32] - FY25E Revenue: Rmb153.793 million, Adj. EPS: Rmb0.05 [28][32] - **Valuation Concerns**: Current valuation at 2.0x FY25 P/BV is considered excessive, leading to an Underweight rating [1][29][36] Additional Important Insights - **Polysilicon Supply and Demand**: Expected polysilicon supply in January 2025 is 98,000 tons, while demand is projected at 101,000 tons, indicating a potential undersupply situation [11][12] - **Production Challenges**: Polysilicon producers face longer ramp-up times for production compared to wafer/cell/module manufacturers, which may lead to temporary undersupply in Q2 2025 [6][11] - **Risks to Ratings**: Downside risks include lower-than-expected polysilicon prices, slower production ramp-up, and higher power costs [24][40] Conclusion - The China solar sector is experiencing a rally driven by demand expectations and potential price increases in polysilicon. Daqo is highlighted as a key player with a favorable outlook, while Tongwei faces valuation challenges despite potential market benefits.

Summary of Humanoid Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The humanoid market is experiencing rapid evolution driven by various catalysts [1] - Key players in the humanoid sector include Tesla, 1X, Agility, and UBTECH, with mass production expected to start in 2025 [2] Market Projections - China's humanoid market is projected to reach Rmb1 trillion by 2040 and Rmb6 trillion by 2050 [2] - The US humanoid market is estimated to generate US$240 billion by 2040 and US$1 trillion by 2050 [2] Performance Insights - Component manufacturers have outperformed humanoid integrators, with an increase of 84% compared to 45% for integrators and 17% for MSCI China since September 2024 [3] Key Catalysts for 2025 1. **Government Support**: Strong backing from local governments, including Shanghai's initiative for embodied AI [4] 2. **Corporate Updates**: Significant advancements from companies like Tesla and Figure, including hiring for humanoid production [4] 3. **Technological Advancements**: Rapid improvements in AI technology, which are crucial for the development of humanoids [4] Risks - Potential stock price declines if catalysts underperform, such as production delays or component failures [4] Upcoming Events and Updates - Various conferences and corporate updates are expected to provide insights into humanoid advancements, including: - NPC and CPPCC meeting on March 5 [22] - Nvidia GTC AI Conference from March 17-21 [24] - Tesla's updates on Optimus and other humanoid models [26] Notable Company Developments - **Tesla**: Plans to produce thousands of Optimus humanoids in 2025, with targets of 50,000-100,000 units in 2026 and 500,000-1 million units by 2027 [21] - **Figure**: Aiming to unveil a breakthrough humanoid model and ship 100,000 units over the next four years [21] - **Unitree**: Showcased humanoids at the 2025 CCTV Spring Festival Gala, demonstrating advanced motion control [21] Market Sentiment - The humanoid sector stocks have outperformed MSCI China by 54% since September 1, 2024, indicating strong investor interest [29] Conclusion - The humanoid market is poised for significant growth driven by government support, corporate advancements, and technological innovations, with key players actively working towards mass production and commercialization. However, potential risks associated with production and technological challenges remain a concern for investors.

J P M O R G A N NIM Asset quality Efficiency Capital See page 3 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. Latin America Equity Research 06 February 2025 Inter 4Q24 Conference Call Highlights Today Inter hosted its 4Q24 conference call. Main highlights below: Loans J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the o ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China services sector**, specifically the **Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index (PMI)** Key Points 1. **PMI Decline**: The Caixin services PMI decreased to **51.0 in January** from **52.2 in December**, indicating continued expansion in the service sector but at a slower pace [3][4] 2. **New Business Index**: The new business index fell to **51.0 in January** (down from **52.7 in December**), suggesting a slowdown in new business activity [4] 3. **Outstanding Business Index**: The outstanding business index decreased to **49.4 in January** (from **50.9 in December**), indicating a contraction in outstanding business [4] 4. **Export Orders**: The new export orders sub-index increased to **51.2 in January** (up from **48.9 in December**), suggesting improved demand for exports [4] 5. **Employment Sub-index**: The employment sub-index edged down to **48.8 in January** (from **49.4 in December**), reflecting a reduction in workforce as companies focus on efficiency [4] 6. **Price Indicators**: Input prices sub-index rose slightly to **50.8** (from **50.7 in December**), while output prices sub-index decreased to **50.3** (from **50.5 in December**), indicating squeezed margins [5] 7. **Cost Pressures**: Companies reported that higher raw material and labor costs contributed to the rise in input prices, but they are willing to absorb some costs to support sales [5] Additional Insights - The decline in employment is attributed to a lack of capacity pressure and a focus on cost-cutting measures by firms [4] - The overall sentiment indicates a cautious outlook for the service sector, with potential risks stemming from rising costs and reduced hiring [5]

Cloud revs decelerated back to prior trend (Q4 30% y/y vs. Q1-Q2 28-29%) after a strong 35% in Q3. But we see potential for future upside given current capacity constraints and plans for FY25 capex up 43%. Ad revs were healthy, esp. YouTube +14% y/y. But Q1 is to start slow given FX headwinds and tougher comps. Continued efficiency gains as op mgn (net) 37.9% +520bp y/y. Stock trades ~12.6x NTM EV/EBITDA vs. 12x 10-yr avg; expect to grind higher. Buy, $235 PT. Things we liked: Things we're watching: | FY (D ...

China (PRC) | Building Materials 2025 Commodities Outlook: Desperate Times Call for Desperate measures China concluded the CEWC on Dec 12, making significant adjustments to its macroeconomic policies for 2025. The focus of a "more proactive" fiscal policy and an "appropriately loose" monetary policy is an unprecedented combination. While the stimulus this time is more consumption-focused than FAI-led, this sets the backdrop for a cyclical recovery in commodity demand and stock valuations. Top picks: WCC, CN ...

Summary of TSMC Conference Call Company and Industry - **Company**: TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) - **Industry**: Greater China Technology Semiconductors Key Points and Arguments 1. **Role in AI Semiconductor Supply**: TSMC is a key supplier for global cloud AI semiconductors, including NVIDIA's AI GPUs, indicating its significant position in the AI semiconductor market [1][6] 2. **Upcoming Analyst Meeting**: TSMC will host its 4Q24 analyst meeting on January 16, 2025, where it will disclose its 4Q24 earnings and 1Q25 guidance, which are critical for assessing AI demand sustainability [2][6] 3. **Revenue and Margin Guidance**: The market anticipates TSMC to provide conservative guidance for 1Q25 revenue and gross margin, with expectations of low-20% year-over-year growth in USD for 2025 and gross margins above 53% [2][6] 4. **Scenarios for Guidance Outcomes**: - **Scenario 1**: Guidance beats consensus, leading to a 4% stock price increase. - **Scenario 2**: Guidance aligns with consensus, resulting in a 2% stock price increase. - **Scenario 3**: Guidance falls below consensus, causing a 5% stock price decrease [3][4] 5. **Base Case Expectation**: The base case is Scenario 2, with a 60% probability assigned, expecting TSMC to over-deliver and raise its 2025 guidance in subsequent quarters [4][6] 6. **Stock Price Projections**: Projected stock prices based on scenarios are NT$1,170 for Scenario 1, NT$1,148 for Scenario 2, and NT$1,068 for Scenario 3 [5] Additional Important Content 1. **Market Capitalization and Trading**: TSMC's current market capitalization is NT$29,170,363 million, with an average daily trading value of NT$39,889 million [7] 2. **Earnings Per Share (EPS) Forecast**: EPS is projected to be NT$32.34 for FY23, NT$45.60 for FY24, NT$59.93 for FY25, and NT$76.86 for FY26 [7] 3. **Valuation Methodology**: The valuation is based on a residual income model with key assumptions including a cost of equity of 9.2% and an intermediate growth rate of 10% [9] 4. **Risks**: Potential risks include pricing pressures from major clients, lower visibility on AI demand, and increasing costs of overseas fabs [11] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from TSMC's conference call, highlighting its strategic position in the semiconductor industry, upcoming guidance expectations, and potential stock market implications.

Key Points Industry Overview - **Self Storage Sector**: The report focuses on the self-storage sector, specifically analyzing the outlook for 2025. - **Cautious Optimism**: The overall outlook for the sector into 2025 is cautiously positive, with expectations for a recovery in the second half of the year. - **Housing Market Recovery**: The recovery in the housing market is seen as a key driver for the self-storage sector, as increased demand for housing will lead to increased demand for storage. Company Analysis - **CubeSmart (CUBE)**: Downgraded to Hold due to weaker-than-expected move-in rates and softening ECRIs. The company's predominantly urban portfolio may not benefit as much from the housing recovery as its peers. - **Extra Space Storage (EXR)**: Maintained at Buy, with a positive outlook due to its strong position in the market and potential for earnings growth. - **National Storage Affiliates (NSA)**: Maintained at Buy, with a positive outlook due to its exposure to secondary and tertiary markets, which are well-positioned to benefit from the housing market recovery. - **Public Storage (PSA)**: Maintained at Buy, with a positive outlook due to its strong balance sheet and revenue management platform. Key Metrics - **Move-in Rates**: Expected to return to positive growth in 2025, with a base case scenario of ~3% growth for EXR and PSA, and slightly lower growth for CUBE. - **ECRIs**: Expected to remain stable in 2025, with a base case scenario of ~22.5% for PSA, 17.5% for EXR, and 17.6% for CUBE. - **Occupancy**: Expected to improve in 2025, with a base case scenario of ~1% growth for PSA, EXR, and CUBE. Risks - **Economic Downturn**: A worsening economic environment could negatively impact the housing market and, consequently, the self-storage sector. - **Oversupply**: Excessive supply of self-storage facilities could lead to lower occupancy rates and rental rates. - **Rising Interest Rates**: Higher interest rates could increase the cost of capital for self-storage companies and potentially lead to lower demand for housing. Conclusion The self-storage sector is expected to recover in 2025, driven by a recovering housing market. However, there are risks that could impact the sector, including an economic downturn, oversupply, and rising interest rates.