Alcoa (AA) May Report Negative Earnings: Know the Trend Ahead of Next Week's Release

Core Viewpoint - Alcoa (AA) is anticipated to report a year-over-year increase in earnings driven by higher revenues, with the earnings report set for July 17, 2024, being a significant factor for its stock price movement [1][2]. Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The company is expected to post a quarterly loss of $0.02 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of +94.3% [2]. - Revenues are projected to reach $2.82 billion, marking a 5.2% increase from the same quarter last year [2]. Estimate Revisions Trend - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 70.19% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [3]. - The direction of estimate revisions may not always align with the aggregate change, highlighting the variability in analyst expectations [3]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that the Most Accurate Estimate aligns with the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of 0% for Alcoa [4][6]. - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, suggesting a neutral outlook [6]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Alcoa was expected to post a loss of $0.62 per share but actually reported a loss of $0.81, resulting in a surprise of -30.65% [8]. - Over the past four quarters, Alcoa has beaten consensus EPS estimates twice [8]. Conclusion - Alcoa does not appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat based on current estimates and historical performance, but other factors should also be considered when evaluating the stock ahead of its earnings release [9].