铝铝铝 2026/02/05 想说爱你不容易 从业资格证号：F03137989 交易咨询证号：Z0023618 联系方式：chenjingmin@zjtfqh.com 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 周度变化及展望 作者：陈晶敏 ◼ 开年以来，铝价走势与波动率呈现高度同步，盘面交易逻辑显著偏离铝品目本身 —— 市场焦点集中于美元走势、流动性宽松程 度及贵金属的联动效应，而基本面因素被阶段性淡化。实际上开年至今，国内外供给端已悄然出现边际变化： ➢ 1、美铝旗下Lista铝厂已续签电力合同，并已开始复产；2、我们将冰岛Grundartangi铝厂复产预期由原先的Q4提前至Q3； ➢ 3、我们将莫桑比克Mozal铝厂原先完全停产的预期，调整为部分减产；4、国内东北某铝厂计划于3月启动闲置产能复产。 ➢ 我们将在正文详细展开以上4个铝厂的具体调整及原因，并附最新的海外电解铝厂电力合约表、投产预期表、供需平衡表。 ◼ 基于上述信息，我们本周上调2026年海外和国内的电解铝产量预期。但此前行情走势与以上基本面严重"劈叉"，我们认为核心 逻辑在于：短期接货厂商数量的减少 ...

Alcoa Corporation (NYSE:AA) is one of the cheap hot stocks to invest in right now. On January 27, Morgan Stanley downgraded Alcoa to Equal Weight from Overweight, while raising its price target to $64 from $52. The firm noted that while the company continues to benefit from high aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange, the stock’s significant outperformance compared to its peers in recent months has resulted in a more balanced risk-reward profile. On January 23, Bank of America raised the firm’s pri ...

Financial Performance - Alcoa reported revenues of approximately $3.4 billion, showing a robust sequential increase driven by elevated aluminum and alumina prices along with enhanced shipment volumes [2] - Adjusted earnings were about $1.25 per share, surpassing market predictions, indicating a return to solid profitability after a volatile previous cycle [2] - Operating cash flow improved significantly, strengthening Alcoa's balance sheet and liquidity as it approaches 2026 [2] Operational Highlights - The quarter saw increased aluminum production as smelters operated at higher utilization levels, and alumina production benefited from fewer interruptions and improved cost management [5] - Management highlighted record output at various facilities, demonstrating the business's leverage when pricing and operations align [5] - Improvements helped mitigate persistent energy costs and inflationary pressures that have been significant concerns for investors [5] Stock Performance - Alcoa shares have shown strong gains over the past year, outperforming broader materials indices as investors anticipated higher earnings potential and increasing free cash flow [6] - The immediate market response to the recent earnings report was subdued, indicating that much of the favorable news had already been factored into the stock price [6] - Some profit-taking occurred as investors shifted focus from the recent quarter to expectations around margins and volumes in the upcoming quarters [6] Future Outlook - Alcoa reaffirmed expectations for stable aluminum and alumina production in 2026, with volumes generally in line with current run rates [7] - The company anticipates high capital expenditures to sustain operations, pursue decarbonization initiatives, and undertake selective growth projects [7] - Management acknowledged that specific assets, including major smelter restarts, will impact near-term earnings before becoming accretive later in the cycle [7] Investment Thesis - The investment thesis for Alcoa now hinges on execution and the commodity landscape rather than solely on recovery [8] - If aluminum prices remain stable and cost pressures diminish, the company's operating leverage could lead to another phase of earnings growth [8] - Alcoa's stock is currently valued at $64, approximately 8% above the current market price, reflecting a genuine turnaround [8]

划重点： 1）过去二十年，互联网重构了世界，但也让投资者落入"比特吞噬原子"的陷阱。长期以来，有色金属被固化为"传统行业"。但在 2026 年，工业 金属已不再单纯是随波逐流的周期股，而是 AI 物理底座的"优先受益标的"。 2）我们正处于能源介质大迁徙的奇点：铜作为算力血管面临品位通缩；铝作为"固态电力"享受充分溢价；锡在半导体封装的微缩中化身沉默税 收；镍则在高镍电池回归中重获估值主权。供需两侧的"完美风暴"已然成型，十年资本支出断层带来的产量滞后，正让存量矿产资源迸发出更大 价值。 3）2026 年，投资有色金属的胜负手不再是博取波段价差，而是锁定稀缺资源。麦克莫兰（FCX）凭借极致成本锚点对标早期能源巨头，美国铝 业（AA）则充分收割能源套利。在美元信用波动的背景下，重仓物理世界、拥抱有色金属，不仅是资产对冲的必选，更是持有 AI 变革的入场 券。 在过去二十年的叙事里，大多数投资者沉浸在"比特"吞噬"原子"的幻觉中，笃信软件定义一切，算法足以重构世界。 然而站在 2026 年的时点，现实让更多投资者重新认识到：AI 的尽头不是代码，而是电力；电力的尽头不只是能源，更是铜、铝、锡、镍等有色金属。 当科 ...

Market Overview - Wall Street achieved a historic milestone with the S&P 500 reaching the 7,000 mark for the first time, driven by the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain steady interest rates, indicating solid economic expansion [1][10] - Investor confidence was bolstered by the Fed's assessment of a stabilizing labor market, despite the index ending the session with little change [1] Investment Strategy - The current market conditions are likely to enhance the attractiveness of low-leverage stocks, as investors may prioritize financial resilience and capital preservation over aggressive growth strategies [2] - Recommended companies with low leverage include ThyssenKrupp (TKAMY), Alcoa Corp. (AA), Coeur Mining (CDE), FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN), and TechnipFMC (FTI), which are seen as safer options during market volatility [2][10] Low-Leverage Stocks - Leverage in finance refers to borrowing capital to operate and expand businesses, typically through debt financing, which can pose risks if not managed properly [4][5] - Companies with low debt levels are generally less risky and can provide more stable returns, especially during economic downturns [6][11] - The debt-to-equity ratio is a key metric for assessing a company's financial risk, with lower ratios indicating better solvency [7] Company Highlights - **ThyssenKrupp (TKAMY)**: Recognized for its environmental efforts, the company expects a 2.1% increase in fiscal 2026 sales and a 24.1% rise in earnings, holding a Zacks Rank 1 [15][16] - **Alcoa (AA)**: Despite a 1.1% decline in revenues, adjusted EPS surged by 21.2%, with a projected 8.5% revenue increase and a 34% earnings growth for 2026, also holding a Zacks Rank 1 [17][18] - **Coeur Mining (CDE)**: The company is undertaking its largest exploration campaign since 2012, with a projected 30.2% revenue increase and a 116.9% earnings growth for 2026, holding a Zacks Rank 1 [19][20] - **FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN)**: Reported a 10.5% year-over-year increase in adjusted EPS and expects a 61.6% revenue increase for 2026, holding a Zacks Rank 1 [21][22] - **TechnipFMC (FTI)**: Awarded a significant contract by BP, with a projected 9.6% revenue increase and a long-term earnings growth rate of 18.8%, holding a Zacks Rank 2 [23][24]

本文共4160字， 阅读需约14分钟 想进群看深度投研？现在就行动！ 点赞＋推荐＋分享到朋友圈，截图发给 Fafa（微信：rockflowfafa），马上开通 RockFlow 社群资格。 额外福利：年度 AI 报告合集，先到先得。 在过去二十年的叙事里，大多数投资者沉浸在"比特"吞噬"原子"的幻觉中，笃信软件定义一切，算法足以重构世界。 划重点 ① 过去二十年，互联网重构了世界，但也让投资者落入"比特吞噬原子"的陷阱。长期以来，有 色金属被固化为"传统行业"。但在 2026 年，工业金属已不再单纯是随波逐流的周期股，而是 AI 物理底座的"优先受益标的"。 ② 我们正处于能源介质大迁徙的奇点：铜作为算力血管面临品位通缩；铝作为"固态电力"享受 充分溢价；锡在半导体封装的微缩中化身沉默税收；镍则在高镍电池回归中重获估值主权。供 需两侧的"完美风暴"已然成型，十年资本支出断层带来的产量滞后，正让存量矿产资源迸发出 更大价值。 ③ 2026 年，投资有色金属的胜负手不再是博取波段价差，而是锁定稀缺资源。麦克莫兰 （FCX）凭借极致成本锚点对标早期能源巨头，美国铝业（AA）则充分收割能源套利。在美元 信用波动的背景 ...

LOS ANGELES--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Leading plaintiffs' class action law firm Glancy Prongay & Murray LLP today announced that the Firm is changing its name to Glancy Prongay Wolke & Rotter LLP. The change reflects the substantial contributions that partners Kara Wolke, co-chair of the Firm's securities litigation group, and Jonathan Rotter, chair of the Firm's antitrust, consumer protection, and privacy groups, have made to the success of the Firm and the results that they have achieved for. ...

Core Insights - High-rolling investors are taking a bearish position on Alcoa (NYSE:AA), indicating potential insider knowledge or market sentiment shifts [1] - The sentiment among major traders is predominantly bearish, with 63% of options identified being bearish compared to 26% bullish [2] Options Activity - A total of 19 options trades for Alcoa were identified, with one put option valued at $29,875 and 18 call options totaling $2,321,041 [2] - The significant volume and open interest suggest that major players are targeting a price range for Alcoa between $35.0 and $70.0 over the past quarter [3][4] Recent Trading Metrics - The trading volume for Alcoa stands at 4,894,144, with the stock price currently at $58.2, reflecting a 1.5% increase [10] - Analysts have provided an average target price of $62.25 for Alcoa, with varying ratings from different firms, including a downgrade from Morgan Stanley to Equal-Weight with a target of $64 and a downgrade from JP Morgan to Underweight with a target of $50 [9][10] Company Overview - Alcoa is a vertically integrated aluminum company, recognized as the world's largest bauxite miner and alumina refiner by production volume, and the eighth-largest aluminum producer [8] - The company has a historical significance as the first mass producer of aluminum and has undergone strategic changes, including the spin-off of its automotive and aerospace segment in 2016 [8]

Core Insights - Aclaris Therapeutics announced positive preclinical results for ATI-2138, a potent ITK/JAK3 inhibitor, showing significant hair regrowth in a murine model of severe alopecia areata compared to ritlecitinib [1][2][3] Group 1: Drug Efficacy - ATI-2138 demonstrated rapid and near-complete hair regrowth in mice, achieving 87% regrowth at week 4 and 93% at week 6, compared to 48% and 78% for ritlecitinib respectively [3] - The study utilized a reversal model of alopecia universalis, indicating that ATI-2138 is effective even in older and more difficult-to-treat mice [2][3] Group 2: Mechanism of Action - ATI-2138 acts as a dual inhibitor of ITK and JAK3, affecting T cell receptor signaling and regulating T cell expansion and activation [2][7] - The drug is highly selective, being over 1,000-fold more potent against ITK and JAK3 than other JAK isoforms, which may lead to a strong anti-inflammatory response [2][7] Group 3: Future Development - Aclaris plans to initiate a Phase 2b trial for ATI-2138 in the first half of 2026, exploring its potential in treating various inflammatory and autoimmune diseases, including alopecias [6][10] - The company is assessing additional indications for ATI-2138, leveraging its unique pharmacological profile [6][10] Group 4: Company Overview - Aclaris Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing novel treatments for immuno-inflammatory diseases, with a robust R&D pipeline [8] - The company aims to address unmet medical needs in patients suffering from conditions that lack satisfactory treatment options [8]

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential benefits of subscribing to Beyond the Wall Investing for access to high-quality equity research reports, which can save investors thousands of dollars annually [1] - Alcoa Corporation (AA) stock has been under review for about 9 months, with a previous "Buy" rating maintained despite a continued correction in the stock price [1] - Oakoff Investments, a personal portfolio manager and quantitative research analyst, leads the investing group Beyond the Wall Investing, offering features such as a fundamentals-based portfolio and weekly analysis [1]