Shares of Alcoa Corporation (AA) have been showing impressive gains of late, increasing 12.1% in the past month. The alumina, aluminum and bauxite products provider has outperformed the industry and S&P 500 composite’s growth of 11.3% and 4.3%, respectively. In contrast, the company’s peers, Constellium SE (CSTM) and Ryerson Holding Corporation (RYI) have gained 28.3% and lost 5.5%, respectively, over the same time frame.AA Stock’s One-Month Price PerformanceImage Source: Zacks Investment ResearchClosing at ...

Photo Illustration by Pavlo Gonchar/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty ImagesSOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty ImagesAlcoa (NYSE:AA) stock appears unappealing – making it a poor choice to purchase at its current price of approximately $29. We believe there are several significant concerns regarding AA stock, which renders it unattractive even though its current valuation is quite low.We reach our conclusion by evaluating the present valuation of AA stock against its operational performance over recent years, ...

Alcoa Corporation (AA) and Constellium SE (CSTM) are two prominent players in the aluminum sector with global operations and diversified portfolios. With aluminum prices remaining high, driven by global economic uncertainties and trade tensions, comparing these two industry participants is particularly relevant for investors seeking exposure to the Zacks Metal Products - Distribution industry.Aluminum has become an attractive investment over the past few years with growing popularity for lighter and energy- ...

Investor Presentation May 2025 OUR VALUES Act with Integrity This presentation contains statements that relate to future events and expectations and as such constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements include those containing such words as "aims," "ambition," "anticipates," "believes," "could," "develop," "endeavors," "estimates," "expects," "forecasts," "goal," "intends," "may," "outlook," "potential," "plans," ...

Alcoa Corporation (NYSE:AA) Bank of America Global Metals, Mining and Steel Conference May 14, 2025 5:15 AM ET Company Participants Molly Beerman - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Lawson Winder - Bank of America Lawson Winder Welcome everybody. I'm excited to have with me here today from Alcoa Molly Beerman, who's been the CFO now for well over a year. And I think it's always interesting to have somebody that's newer to a company because we tend to get a bit o ...

Alcoa (AA) 2025 Conference Summary Company Overview - Alcoa is a pure play aluminum company organized into two segments: Alumina and Aluminum, operating 26 locations across nine countries with 13,900 employees [3][4] - The company is focused on increasing domestic aluminum production and is actively engaging with the US administration for tariff relief valued at approximately $400 million annually [3][5] Key Financials and Targets - Alcoa reported strong cash generation in Q1, exceeding historical first-quarter performance [4] - The adjusted net debt target is set between $1 billion and $1.5 billion, with a current debt level of $2.1 billion [5][50] - The company aims to continue deleveraging efforts throughout 2025 [5][51] Tariff and Market Dynamics - The company is facing challenges with tariffs, as the London Metal Exchange (LME) prices have dropped over $200, negatively impacting US producers [7][8] - Alcoa is advocating for tariff relief while emphasizing the need for new smelters to meet US aluminum demand, which currently relies heavily on imports [9][10] - The Midwest premium has not risen sufficiently, attributed to market uncertainty and prior metal influx before tariffs [11][12] Geopolitical Impacts - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has shifted trade flows, with Russian aluminum now primarily directed to China, not significantly impacting the US market [14][15][16] - The company does not anticipate major changes in LME prices due to the geopolitical situation, as global supply and demand remain stable [16] Bauxite and Alumina Markets - The bauxite market has eased, with customers reporting no issues in obtaining orders, particularly from Guinea [17][18] - Alcoa expects a 35% year-over-year increase in bauxite supply from Guinea to China [18] - Alumina prices have corrected significantly, but support is seen around $3.50 due to China's economic actions [19][20] Capital Expenditure and New Projects - The capital expenditure (CapEx) for new aluminum construction varies by region, with estimates ranging from $2,500 to $5,000 per ton [21] - Alcoa is on track for approvals for higher-grade bauxite in Australia by early 2026, with production expected to increase by about 1 million metric tons per year once operational [25][26] Spanish Operations - The San Ciprian smelter faced a power outage, impacting operations, but recovery efforts are underway [27][29] - The partnership with Ignis for renewable energy is crucial for the profitability of Spanish assets, with potential power agreements expected by 2028 [31][32] Elysis Technology and Innovation - Alcoa continues to support the Elysis partnership, contributing $50 million annually, while focusing on R&D for new aluminum production technologies [37][38] Asset Monetization and Capital Allocation - Alcoa is on track to close the sale of its Middle Eastern smelting assets for $1.3 billion in June, with plans for potential monetization of shares post-lockup [46][47] - The company is balancing deleveraging with capital returns and growth opportunities as it approaches its debt target [51]

Financial Performance - Alcoa's net income attributable to the corporation was $548 million in Q1 2025, up from $202 million in Q4 2024, reflecting a favorable change of $346 million [125]. - Sales for Q1 2025 were $3,369 million, a decrease of $117 million from Q4 2024, but an increase of $770 million compared to Q1 2024 [124]. - The company recorded a consolidated net income of $548 million in Q1 2025, compared to a net loss of $252 million in Q1 2024 [175]. - Net income increased by $658 million, driven by higher alumina and aluminum pricing, despite higher alumina input costs [183]. - The provision for income taxes in Q1 2025 was $120 million on income before taxes of $668 million, representing an effective tax rate of 18% [135]. Production and Shipments - Aluminum production for Q1 2025 was 564 kmt, a decrease of 1% from Q4 2024, primarily due to two fewer days in the period [164]. - Total aluminum shipments in Q1 2025 were 609 kmt, compared to 641 kmt in Q4 2024 [163]. - Alcoa's third-party shipments of alumina were 2,105 kmt in Q1 2025, down from 2,289 kmt in Q4 2024 [124]. - Alumina production for Q1 2025 was 2,355 kmt, a decrease of 1% from Q4 2024 and a decrease of 12% year-over-year [150][151]. - Alcoa expects total 2025 Alumina segment production to remain unchanged, projected between 9.5 to 9.7 million metric tons [154]. - Alcoa expects total Aluminum segment production for 2025 to remain between 2.3 and 2.5 million metric tons [172]. Pricing and Costs - The average realized price per metric ton of aluminum increased to $3,213 in Q1 2025, compared to $3,006 in Q4 2024 [124]. - The average alumina price index (API) was $612 per metric ton, a decrease of 5% compared to Q4 2024, but an increase of 72% compared to Q1 2024 [146]. - The average LME aluminum price in Q1 2025 was $2,607 per metric ton, with a 57% increase in the Midwest premium due to tariffs on Canadian imports [156]. - The cost of goods sold as a percentage of sales decreased by 5% sequentially in Q1 2025 [127]. - Interest expense increased by $8 million sequentially, totaling $53 million in Q1 2025 [129]. - The company recognized $82 million in increased costs related to the curtailment of the Kwinana refinery [150]. Segment Performance - Total sales for the Alumina segment in Q1 2025 were $2,175 million, down from $2,441 million in Q4 2024 [150]. - Segment Adjusted EBITDA for the Alumina segment was $664 million in Q1 2025, a decrease of $52 million from Q4 2024 but an increase of $525 million year-to-date [150][153]. - Segment Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $134 million, down from $194 million in Q4 2024, primarily due to lower shipments [168]. - Third-party aluminum sales increased to $1,955 million in Q1 2025, up from $1,928 million in Q4 2024, driven by a higher average realized price of $3,213 per metric ton [166]. Financing and Investments - The company completed debt issuances totaling $1 billion in March 2025, with net proceeds of $985 million used for various corporate purposes [120]. - The company recorded $985 million in net proceeds from bond issuances in March 2025, including $500 million from 6.125% Senior Notes due 2030 and $500 million from 6.375% Senior Notes due 2032 [189]. - Cash provided from financing activities was $77 million in Q1 2025, a significant decrease from $754 million in Q1 2024 [185]. - Cash used for investing activities was $108 million in Q1 2025, down from $117 million in Q1 2024, primarily for capital expenditures [200]. - The company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share, resulting in cash dividends paid of $26 million in March 2025 [196]. Joint Ventures and Partnerships - Alcoa and IGNIS EQT formed a joint venture for the San Ciprián operations, with Alcoa owning 75% and contributing $81 million [117][118]. - The joint venture agreement with IGNIS EQT was established on March 31, 2025, with Alcoa owning 75% of the San Ciprián operations [140]. - Cash contributions to the ELYSIS partnership amounted to $15 million in Q1 2025 [200]. Compliance and Risk Management - As of March 31, 2025, the company was in compliance with all financial covenants under its $1,250 million revolving credit facility [192]. - The company entered into financial contracts to mitigate risks associated with aluminum prices, natural gas prices, and foreign currency exchange rates [184]. - Alcoa Corporation's long-term debt rating was affirmed as BB with a positive outlook by Standard and Poor's on March 3, 2025 [197]. Restructuring and Charges - Restructuring and other charges were $5 million in Q1 2025, significantly lower than $91 million in Q4 2024 [133]. - The company recorded $44 million in borrowings and repurchased $49 million of inventory related to inventory repurchase agreements in Q1 2025 [188]. Government Relations - The company engaged with U.S. administrations regarding the impact of a new 25% tariff on aluminum imports from Canada, which affects approximately 70% of its Canadian production [116].

Core Viewpoint - Alcoa Corp. reported solid earnings with an EPS of $2.15, exceeding analysts' estimates by 24%, but its revenue of $3.37 billion fell short of the forecasted $3.58 billion, leading to a 3% decline in stock price [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first quarter was $3.37 billion, lower than the expected $3.58 billion [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) of $2.15 was over 360% higher than the negative EPS of $0.81 from the previous year [1] Guidance and Tariff Impact - Alcoa reaffirmed its existing guidance for aluminum and alumina despite anticipating a $100 million annual cost due to tariffs [2][3] - The company incurred approximately $20 million in costs from a 25% tariff on global aluminum imports and expects an additional $90 million in the upcoming quarter [2] Market and Operational Insights - CEO William Oplinger noted strong demand in the first quarter and a robust order book, allowing the company to maintain its guidance [3] - The U.S. imports over 4 million metric tons of aluminum, primarily from Canada, and would require significant investment and time to close its aluminum trade deficit [4][5] Stock Forecast and Analyst Ratings - The 12-month stock price forecast for Alcoa is $44.17, indicating an upside potential of 89.87% based on 12 analyst ratings [6] - Current stock price is $23.26, with forecasts ranging from a low of $25.00 to a high of $90.00 [6] Investment Considerations - The current tariff environment complicates recommendations for Alcoa stock as a Buy, although there is potential for a favorable shift in tariff policy [7] - Alcoa has made efforts to reduce net debt, which could enhance future capital returns, but the low dividend yield of $0.40 per share may deter long-term investors [8]

Group 1 - The article discusses the subscription service Beyond the Wall Investing, which offers access to high-quality equity research reports, potentially saving investors thousands of dollars annually [1] - Alcoa Corporation (NYSE: AA) has experienced a significant decline, currently trading at a ~75% drawdown from its all-time high after a brief rally in late 2024 [1] - The investing group provides features such as a fundamentals-based portfolio, weekly analysis from institutional investors, and alerts for short-term trade ideas based on technical signals [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes that past performance is not indicative of future results, and no specific investment recommendations are provided [2] - It highlights that the analysts contributing to the platform may not be licensed or certified by any regulatory body, indicating a diverse range of perspectives [2]

1 st Quarter Earnings April 16, 2025 1 Cautionary Statement regarding Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains statements that relate to future events and expectations and as such constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements include those containing such words as "aims," "ambition," "anticipates," "believes," "could," "develop," "endeavors," "estimates," "expects," "forecasts," "goal," "intends," "ma ...