Bet on the Alcoa Stock Bounce

Core Viewpoint - Alcoa Corp's stock has experienced a decline of 3.8%, trading at $38.78, marking its third consecutive daily loss after a rally in early July that peaked at $43 [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Alcoa's stock has dropped 8.3% this week and is approaching its +10% year-over-year level [1] - The stock is currently near a historically bullish trendline, which could indicate potential for recovery [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The stock's recent drawdown has placed it within one standard deviation of its 80-day moving average [1] - Historical data shows that after four similar signals in the past three years, the stock was higher after half of these occurrences, averaging a 9.1% gain over one month [1] Group 3: Short Interest and Analyst Sentiment - An increase in short interest of 2.4% in the last two reporting periods has resulted in 12.77 million shares sold short, representing 7.2% of the stock's available float [2] - Among the 10 analysts covering Alcoa, six have rated the stock as a "hold" or worse, indicating a potential sentiment shift that could impact stock performance [2]