Core Viewpoint - The sustainability of immediate price changes and future earnings expectations will largely depend on management's discussion during the earnings call, with a focus on the potential for a positive EPS surprise [1] Company Overview: OceanFirst - OceanFirst is expected to report revenues of $94.93 million, reflecting a decline of 6.1% compared to the same quarter last year [2] - The Most Accurate Estimate for OceanFirst is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, indicating a recent bullish sentiment among analysts, resulting in an Earnings ESP of +0.20% [5] - For the last reported quarter, OceanFirst's actual earnings were $0.44 per share, surpassing the expected $0.42, leading to a surprise of +4.76% [6] - The consensus EPS estimate for OceanFirst has been revised down by 3.08% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by covering analysts [15] - OceanFirst currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4, suggesting a less favorable outlook [24] Industry Context: Citizens Financial Group - Citizens Financial Group is projected to post earnings of $0.79 per share for the quarter ended June 2024, which represents a year-over-year decline of 14.1% [12] - Revenues for Citizens Financial Group are expected to be $1.95 billion, down 6.9% from the previous year [12] - The consensus EPS estimate for Citizens Financial Group has been revised up by 0.7% over the last 30 days, with an Earnings ESP of 0.75% [20] - Citizens Financial Group has not beaten consensus EPS estimates in any of the last four quarters [30] Earnings Prediction Insights - A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3, with historical data showing a nearly 70% success rate for this combination [9] - The predictive power of the Earnings ESP model is significant primarily for positive readings [23] - Despite a positive Earnings ESP, OceanFirst's combination with a Zacks Rank of 4 makes it difficult to predict a consensus EPS beat conclusively [10]
Analysts Estimate OceanFirst Financial (OCFC) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for