What Will Be the Best Weight Loss Drug Stock of 2030: Eli Lilly, or Novo Nordisk?

Core Insights - The competition in the anti-obesity medicine market is currently between Novo Nordisk's Wegovy and Eli Lilly's Zepbound, but the dynamics are expected to change significantly by 2030 [1][2] - A report by Evaluate suggests that Novo Nordisk is likely to lead the market for weight loss drugs by 2030, with its candidate CagriSema projected to generate over $20.2 billion in annual revenue [3][4] Company Analysis - Novo Nordisk's CagriSema is expected to outperform Eli Lilly's candidates, with Eli Lilly's orforglipron and retatrutide estimated to generate $8.3 billion and $5 billion respectively, totaling $13.3 billion [4] - CagriSema's unique mechanism of action, utilizing three different physiological levers, may provide a competitive edge over Eli Lilly's drugs, which target fewer receptors [5][6][7] - Eli Lilly currently has a market advantage with Zepbound, which is anticipated to capture a larger market share due to its effectiveness, despite Novo Nordisk's potential long-term success [9] Market Dynamics - The market for weight loss therapies is expected to evolve with multiple players and drug candidates, making it unlikely for one company to dominate entirely [2] - Both companies have the potential for growth, and investing in either or both may be beneficial given the large market opportunity [9]