整理 | GLP1减重宝典内容团队 礼来加拿大公司（Eli Lilly Canada）宣布，ZEPBOUND™ KwikPen®（替尔泊肽注射液）现已在加拿大正式上市。这款每周一次的注 射剂，为患有肥胖或超重的成年患者提供了新的慢性体重管理方案。该药物已获得加拿大卫生部批准，用于与健康饮食和规律运动相结 合的长期体重控制。 激活双重激素受体的新机制 ZEPBOUND™通过同时激活两种激素受体——GIP（葡萄糖依赖性促胰岛素多肽）和GLP-1（胰高血糖素样肽-1）——来调节食欲和代 谢。这是加拿大首个也是唯一一个被批准用于长期体重管理的双受体激动剂，具有减重和维持体重的双重作用。 ZEPBOUND™适用于体重指数（BMI）为30及以上的成人，或BMI在27至30之间但患有与体重相关疾病的患者，例如高血压、血脂异 常、2型糖尿病、睡眠呼吸暂停症或心血管疾病。 应对日益严峻的健康挑战 "肥胖是一种严重的慢性疾病，对健康有广泛影响。"礼来加拿大公司总经理兼总裁Mathilde Merlet表示，"如果不加干预，它会引发多 种慢性病，增加医疗系统负担，降低劳动生产率，甚至导致残疾。ZEPBOUND™的推出，是我们在肥胖 ...

2025年07月13日 证券研究报告 | 美股市场速览 市场窄幅震荡，多数行业下跌 行业研究·海外市场专题 美股 弱于大市·维持 证券分析师：王学恒 证券分析师：张熙，CFA 010-88005382 0755-81982090 wangxueh@guosen.com.cn zhangxi4@guosen.com.cn S0980514030002 S0980522040001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 数据速览 价格走势：市场窄幅震荡，多数行业下跌 本周，美股窄幅震荡。标普500跌0.3%，纳斯达克跌0.1%。 风格：小盘价值（罗素2000价值-0.1%）>大盘成长（罗素1000成长-0.2%）>大盘价值（罗素1000价值-0.6%）>小盘成长（罗素2000成长-1.1%）。 8个行业上涨，16个行业下跌。涨幅居前的行业有：能源（+2.6%）、半导体产品与设备（+2.4%）、运输（+1.2%）、制药生物科技和生命科学（+1.1%）、资本 品（+1.0%）；跌幅居前的行业有：电信业务（-4.8%）、保险（-2.6%）、银行（-2.5%）、食品与主要用品零售（-2.1%）、医疗保健设备与服务 ...

大型科技股涨跌互现，谷歌A涨1.45%，亚马逊涨1.24%，特斯拉涨1.17%，英伟达涨0.5%，微软涨 0.37%，苹果跌0.59%，Meta跌1.34%。AMD涨1.57%，礼来制药涨0.3%，伯克希尔哈撒韦B类股收跌 0.5%。 热门中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌0.43%，蔚来汽车大涨5.69%，理想汽车涨1.69%，百 度跌1.71%，阿里巴巴、网易微涨，京东、拼多多微跌。 | 类别 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 道琼斯工业平均 | 44371.51 | -279.13 | -0.63% | | 三大指数 | 纳斯达克 | 20585.53 | -45.14 | -0.22% | | | 标普500 | 6259.75 | -20.71 | -0.33% | | | Google | 180.19 | 2.57 | 1.45% | | | Meta | 717.51 | -9.73 | -1.34% | | | Amazon | 225.02 | 2.76 | 1.24% | | S&P 7 | App ...

但市场并未因此感到安心。智通财经APP获悉，巴克莱银行在一份报告中指出，200%的关税将大幅抬 高药品生产成本，压缩企业利润空间，并可能破坏原有供应链稳定性，最终导致美国市场药品短缺和价 格上涨。瑞银也警告称，对那些在美国以外地区生产的药品企业而言，关税将对利润造成"显著负面影 响"。RockCreek Group创始人兼首席执行官Afsaneh Beschloss在接受采访时指出，这对病患而言"可能是 灾难性的"，因为很多药品目前只能在海外大规模生产，而将生产基地搬回美国需要很长时间。 行业仍寄希望于未来的贸易谈判能争取到某种程度的豁免权。尽管此前推动的行业性关税豁免希望渺 茫，美英最近签署的贸易协议中已提及，将就"对英国药品及药品原料给予优惠待遇"的可能性展开谈 判，前提是232调查结果允许。这也令瑞士和欧盟的药企看到希望，希望通过双边谈判争取豁免地位。 根据美国药品研究与制造商协会(PhRMA)的研究，若对进口药品征收25%的关税，每年将导致美国药品 价格上涨近510亿美元，平均价格涨幅可达12.9%。该协会强烈批评特朗普的关税提案"将适得其反"，损 害公众健康成果，并呼吁政府重新评估其贸易政策。 不过 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. pharmaceutical sector experienced a decline, failing to maintain its upward momentum from earlier in the week [1] - Novo Nordisk (NVO.US) saw a drop of over 3%, while Moderna (MRNA.US) fell by more than 2.4%, Eli Lilly (LLY.US) decreased by over 1%, and Pfizer (PFE.US) declined by nearly 1% [1] - Reports indicate that the FDA may expedite drug reviews to lower drug prices in the U.S. [1]

Core Insights - Demand for Eli Lilly's GLP-1 medicines, Mounjaro and Zepbound, remains robust, generating $6.15 billion in Q1 2025, accounting for approximately 48% of total revenues [1][8] - Sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound rebounded in Q1 2025 due to new international market launches and improved supply, despite lower-than-expected sales in the second half of 2024 [2][8] - The company anticipates Q2 2025 sales of $4.5 billion for Mounjaro and $3.1 billion for Zepbound, driven by deeper market penetration [3][8] Company Performance - Eli Lilly's broader portfolio, including oncology and immunology drugs, continues to show steady growth, with contributions from recently launched products [4] - The company's shares have outperformed the industry year-to-date, indicating strong market performance [7] Industry Context - The U.S. obesity market is projected to reach $100 billion by 2030, with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as the primary competitors [5] - Novo Nordisk's semaglutide medicines, Ozempic and Wegovy, compete directly with Lilly's offerings, contributing significantly to Novo's revenues [5] - Other companies, such as Viking Therapeutics, are also advancing in the obesity space with new investigational drugs [6] Valuation and Estimates - Eli Lilly's shares are currently trading at a P/E ratio of 29.66, above the industry average of 15.16, but below its five-year mean of 34.54 [10] - The bottom-line estimate for 2025 remains at $21.92, while the estimate for 2026 has slightly decreased from $30.91 to $30.84 [11]

Company Strategy & Market Opportunity - Lilly aims to provide freedom from diabetes, eliminate serious health issues caused by obesity, and reduce cardiovascular deaths[10] - The company estimates a significant addressable market of over 170 million patients by 2030 for obesity and related conditions[13] - Outside of the US, the addressable market is expected to be approximately 1 billion patients[15] Orforglipron Development Program - Orforglipron, a GLP-1 small molecule, has a broad development plan including studies for Type 2 Diabetes, obesity, hypertension, and obstructive sleep apnea[20] - In the ACHIEVE-1 trial, all three doses of orforglipron achieved superiority versus placebo in reducing HbA1c levels in patients with Type 2 Diabetes[27] - ACHIEVE-1 trial data showed significant reductions in HbA1c observed as early as 4 weeks, with approximately 3/4 of patients achieving an ADA HbA1c target of less than 7%, and 2/3 reaching HbA1c ≤6.5%[27] - ACHIEVE-1 trial also demonstrated dose-dependent reduction in body weight, with approximately 2/3 of patients achieving ≥5% weight reduction and approximately 1/3 achieving ≥10% weight reduction[30] - Topline results for ATTAIN-1, an orforglipron trial in obesity, are expected in Q3 2025[39] Retatrutide Development Program - Retatrutide is undergoing global development with the TRIUMPH program for obesity and related complications, and the TRANSCEND program for Type 2 Diabetes[41] - Topline results for TRIUMPH-4, a retatrutide trial in knee osteoarthritis pain and overweight or obesity, are expected in Q4 2025[48] Tirzepatide & Early Phase Pipeline - The SURPASS-CVOT trial is designed to evaluate tirzepatide against dulaglutide in patients with established cardiovascular disease[51] - Eloralintide, a selective amylin receptor agonist, showed weight loss up to 11.3% in Phase 1 trials and is well-tolerated with less than 10% incidence of GI side effects[60]

Group 1 - Eli Lilly emerged as a clear winner at the American Diabetes Association (ADA) conference in June, showcasing impressive datasets while competitors presented generally underwhelming data [2] Group 2 - The Growth Stock Forum focuses on attractive risk/reward situations, tracking investment and momentum positions closely, and features a model portfolio of 15-20 names updated regularly [3]

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly and Company's stock has declined 15.7% over the past year due to a first-quarter earnings miss, guidance cut, and positive developments at rival Novo Nordisk, alongside broader economic challenges [1][10]. Group 1: Company Performance - Lilly's cardiometabolic division is its strongest segment, driven by the success of GLP-1 therapies Mounjaro and Zepbound, which together account for approximately 48% of total revenues [3][4]. - Despite slower-than-expected sales in the second half of 2024, Mounjaro and Zepbound saw a resurgence in the first quarter of 2025 due to new international market launches and improved supply [5][6]. - Lilly anticipates continued growth for Mounjaro and Zepbound through expanded international uptake and deeper market penetration in the U.S. [6][7]. Group 2: Product Pipeline and Future Growth - Lilly has secured approvals for several new therapies, including Omvoh, Jaypirca, Ebglyss, and Kisunla, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth in 2025 [10][11]. - The company is also advancing its pipeline in obesity, diabetes, and cancer, with several key mid and late-stage data readouts expected this year [12]. - Lilly is diversifying beyond GLP-1 drugs by expanding into cardiovascular, oncology, and neuroscience areas, including recent M&A deals to enhance its pipeline [13]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The obesity market is projected to reach $100 billion by 2030, with Lilly and Novo Nordisk currently dominating the space [14]. - Mounjaro and Zepbound face competition from Novo Nordisk's semaglutide products and emerging candidates from companies like Amgen and Viking Therapeutics [15][17]. - Other pharmaceutical companies are also entering the obesity market, which could challenge Lilly's and Novo Nordisk's market positions [18]. Group 4: Financial Outlook - Lilly expects 2025 revenues to be between $58 billion and $61 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of approximately 32% [30]. - The company's stock has increased by over 400% in the past five years, primarily due to successful drug launches and a strong pipeline [29]. - Despite a high valuation with a price/earnings ratio of 29.54 compared to the industry average of 15.04, Lilly's stock is trading below its five-year mean [23].

对进口药品征收关税可能大幅推高美国药品的价格。对此许多制药公司已经表示反对，并警告称，征税可能会推高成本，阻碍在美国的投资，扰乱药品供应 链，使患者面临风险。 对进口药品征收关税可能大幅推高美国药品的价格。对此许多制药公司已经表示反对，并警告称，征税可能会推高成本，阻碍在美国的投资，扰乱药品供应 链，使患者面临风险。 辉瑞公司CEO艾伯乐（Albert Bourla）此前表示，关税威胁正在阻碍辉瑞进一步在美国进行研发和制造方面的投资。礼来公司CEO戴文睿（Dave Ricks）也 表示，他并不认为关税能解决围绕美国药品供应链的"国家安全"担忧。 美国总统特朗普在近日的一场内阁会议上表示，很快将宣布对美国进口药品征收"非常高"的关税。"比如200%。"特朗普称。 以默沙东的重磅抗癌药帕博利珠单抗（Keytruda）为例，该药物是目前全球处方药的"销量冠军"，大部分产自爱尔兰。默沙东此前已经表示，正在将足够的 库存转移到美国，以保障至少到年底前的供应。 一位医疗行业投资人对第一财经记者表示，很多美国制药巨头的生产线都建在美国以外的地区，例如爱尔兰每年境内生产的药品价值规模高峰时接近1000亿 欧元，辉瑞、礼来、艾 ...