Eli Lilly said on Monday a small number of basic Medicare drug plans may not follow the $50 per month cap on out-of-pocket costs for its weight-loss drugs, under the Medicare agency's weight-loss drug coverage model. ...

Core Insights - Novo Nordisk (NVO) shares have dropped 22% in the past month, resulting in a loss of nearly $50 billion in market capitalization due to disappointing clinical developments and rising pricing pressures [2] - Eli Lilly (LLY) has emerged as a significant competitor in the GLP-1 obesity market, with its therapy Zepbound (tirzepatide) outperforming NVO's Wegovy in clinical trials [3][4] - Novo Nordisk plans to cut U.S. list prices for Wegovy, Ozempic, and Rybelsus to $675 per month starting January 2027 to enhance patient access, which may compress margins amid increasing competition [7] Competitive Landscape - Eli Lilly's Zepbound achieved 25.5% weight loss in a phase III study, surpassing Novo Nordisk's CagriSema, which recorded 23% weight loss, marking a competitive setback for NVO [4][5] - Lilly's oral GLP-1 candidate, orforglipron, has also outperformed Novo Nordisk's Rybelsus in a phase III study for type II diabetes, further strengthening Lilly's position in the market [6] Financial Performance - Novo Nordisk's stock has underperformed, losing 29.1% over the past six months compared to the industry's 20% growth [19] - The company's shares currently trade at a price/earnings ratio of 11.59, significantly lower than the industry average of 17.90, indicating a discount in valuation [22] Growth Outlook - Novo Nordisk's growth outlook is deteriorating due to slowing demand, rising costs, and limited near-term catalysts, with earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027 declining [8][24] - The company is expanding its portfolio beyond GLP-1 treatments, seeking approvals for therapies in rare diseases and liver care, including treatments for hemophilia and metabolic dysfunction-associated liver disease [15][16] Pipeline Developments - Novo Nordisk is advancing several next-generation obesity candidates, including CagriSema and amycretin, to strengthen its competitive position in the obesity market [17][18] - The company has also entered partnerships to develop oral small-molecule medicines for obesity and diabetes, indicating a strategic focus on expanding its treatment options [18]

医药生物 证券研究报告 行业投资策略周报 / 2026.03.09 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -9% -2% 5% 12% 19% 25% 医药生物 沪深300 上证指数 分析师 华挺 SAC 证书编号：S0160523010002 huating@ctsec.com 联系人 宋田田 songtt@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《原料药板块有望周期性回升》 2026- 02-02 2. 《关注产业趋势给原料药企业带来的新机 遇》 2026-01-19 礼来口服 GLP-1 小分子 Orforglipron 获批在即 3. 《小核酸药物龙头招股启动，赛道或成全 年度医药主线》 2026-01-05 Orforglipron 获批在即，关注产业链机遇 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ❖ 礼来 orforglipron III 期临床试验结果表现优异：礼来公布了 ACHIEVE- 3 研究的详细结果，在主要终点及所有关键次要终点上均优于口服司美格鲁 肽。2026 年 2 月 26 日，礼来公布了 ACHIEVE-3 研究的详细结果，ACHIEVE- 3 是该研究系列的首个头对头对照 ...

借助替而泊肽的高增长，礼来 26 年仍将增长迅速 ➢ 25 年 Q4 收入+42.6%至 192.9 亿美元：公司 25 年 Q4 收入同比 +42.6%至 192.9 亿美元，其中总销量增 46%，但部分收入被售价下降 5%所抵消，收入增长主要由替而泊肽增长驱动。毛利率同比+0.3 个百 分点至 82.5%，公司 GAAP 净利润同比+50.5%至 66.4 亿美元，EPS 同比 +51.4%至 7.39 美元，Q4 公司分红+回购 28 亿美元。26 年虽然价格压 力加剧（预计-10%-15%），且部分成熟产品如 Trulicity、Taltz、 Verzenio 等销售预计持平或下滑，但借助替而泊肽和其他新兴药物的 增长，公司仍预计 26 年的营收增长 23%-27%至 800-830 亿美元， EPS+46%-53%至 33.5-35.0 美元。 ➢ 各版块表现情况：1、代谢板块：25 年 Q4 收入同比增长 59.1%至 144.9 亿美元，占公司总收入的 75%，其中替而泊肽收入同比增长 115%至 116.7 亿美元，其中降糖版 Mounjaro 收入同比+110%至 74.1 亿美元，美国总处 ...

research@firstshanghai.com 新力量 New Force 第一上海研究部 总第 4976 期 2026 年 3 月 9 日 星期一 研究观点 【公司研究】 香港交易所（388，买入）：又一年创纪录，接下来关注持续性 礼来(LLY，买入）：替尔泊肽成为新的药王 【公司评论】 AXT, Inc.（AXTI）：磷化铟（InP）衬底双寡头，上游"卖铲人"卡位 AI 光互联；出 口许可是短期最大扰动与催化 【行业评论】 科技行业周报：重视国产算力产业链，AI 应用强化算力 CAPEX 趋势 数字货币周报 评级变化 | 公司 | 代码 | 评级 | 目标价(港元） | | | 2025年EPS(港元) | | | 2026年EPS(港元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 新 旧 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | | 港交所 | 388 | 买入 买入 500.00 | 550.00 | -9% | 14.000 | 13.000 | ...

2026 阿尔茨海默（AD）投资日历 评级： 增持（维持） 分析师：祝嘉琦 执业证书编号：S0740519040001 Email：zhujq@zts.com.cn 联系人：韩乐 Email：hanle@zts.com.cn 基本状况 | 上市公司数 | 504 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 69,490.56 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 63,754.13 | 行业-市场走势对比 相关报告 1、《重点关注 Q1 业绩预期、积极把握 主题机会；手术机器人专题：政策打通 商业化瓶颈、千亿市场驶向发展快车道》 2026-03-02 2、《In vivo CAR 行业更新；持续把握 医药结构性行情》2026-02-23 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 3、《1-8 批国采续标结果出炉，具有规 模效应的存量龙头相对受益》2026-02- 11 医药生物 证券研究报告/行业专题报告 2026 年 03 月 08 日 | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 股价 | EPS PE 评级 | | （元） | | 2023A 2024A 2 ...

3月5日，礼来旗下新型长效胰淀素受体激动剂Eloralintide获得中国CDE批准，并同步启动了3项全球关键Ⅲ期临床研究。 作为礼来在代谢健康领域的重要成果，Eloralintide具有独特的差异化作用机制。它是一款强效、选择性的胰淀素受体激动剂，能够高 亲和力结合人胰淀素1受体（AMY1R），同时避开降钙素受体（hCTR）的潜在风险，既保证减重效果，又显著改善胃肠道不良反应， 实现疗效与耐受性的完美平衡。 临床研究成果与优势： 简便用药：Eloralintide的血浆半衰期约为14天，仅需每周一次皮下注射，大幅提升了患者的用药便捷性。 整理 | GLP1减重宝典内容团队 显著减重效果：在II期临床试验中，Eloralintide展现了显著的剂量依赖性减重效果，最高剂量组体重降幅达20.1%，平均腰围最大减少 17.1cm，远超安慰剂组。 多重健康改善：该药物不仅改善体重，还有效改善血压、血脂、血糖等多项心血管风险指标，对炎症标志物的调节也有积极作用，并且 全剂量组均表现出良好的安全性。 良好耐受性：剂量递增方案能够进一步降低胃肠道不适，确保患者能够持续接受治疗。 全球同步III期临床研究 此次在中国启动的 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年03月08日 美股市场速览 弱于大市 市场震荡回撤，但盈利预测稳步向好 价格走势：多数行业回撤，软件显著反弹 本周，标普 500 指数-2.0%（上周-0.4%），纳斯达克综指-1.2%（上周-1.0%）。 风格：大盘成长（罗素 1000 成长-0.7%）＞大盘价值（罗素 1000 价值-3.5%） ＞小盘价值（罗素 2000 价值-3.6%）＞小盘成长（罗素 2000 成长-4.5%）。 4 个行业上涨，20 个行业下跌。上涨的主要有：软件与服务（+6.3%）、商 业和专业服务（+2.3%）、电信业务（+2.3%）、能源（+1.1%）；下跌的主 要有：家庭与个人用品（-7.5%）、耐用消费品与服装（-7.5%）、材料（-6.8%）、 食品饮料与烟草（-6.1%）、运输（-5.5%）。 资金流向：整体加速流出，软硬件显著分化 本周，标普 500 成分股估算资金流（涨跌额 x 成交量）为-99.4（亿美元， 下同），上周为-31.9，近 4 周为-154.3，近 13 周为-283.8。 6 个行业资金流入，18 个行业资金流出。资金流入的主要有：软件与服务 （+49.1）、能源（+ ...

Core Insights - Eli Lilly is currently leading the GLP-1 drug market with its products Mounjaro and Zepbound, which have shown significant sales growth [1][2][3] - The company's stock is highly valued with a price-to-earnings ratio of 44, significantly higher than the S&P 500 average of 28 and the average pharmaceutical stock's P/E of just under 23 [2] - Mounjaro and Zepbound account for 56% of Eli Lilly's revenue, indicating that the company's growth is heavily reliant on the continued success of these drugs [3] Competitive Landscape - Eli Lilly's current leadership in the GLP-1 space is challenged by competitors like Novo Nordisk and Pfizer, who are also innovating in this area [4] - The pharmaceutical sector has a history of rapid changes in market leadership, suggesting that Eli Lilly could face significant competition in the future [4] Future Outlook - The limited patent protection for Eli Lilly's drugs poses a risk, as generic competition could emerge in the next decade, potentially reducing revenue from its branded products [5] - Eli Lilly is actively investing in its drug pipeline to mitigate future risks, but the current high valuation may not reflect potential downturns in the company's fortunes [6]

Core Insights - The WHO Foundation has announced a collaboration with Eli Lilly and Company to strengthen health systems for obesity prevention and care, addressing a critical global health challenge [1] - Lilly has committed $1.68 million to the WHO Foundation until 2029 to support these health system strengthening efforts [1] - The initiative aims to improve access to early diagnosis, counseling, and care, reduce the global economic impact of obesity, and mitigate health risks associated with it [1] Health Statistics - In 2022, over 2.5 billion adults and more than 390 million children and adolescents worldwide were overweight, with 1 in 8 people living with obesity [1] - The prevalence of obesity among adults has more than doubled since 1990, while obesity among adolescents has quadrupled [1] - In 2022, 43% of adults aged 18 and older were overweight, and 16% were classified as obese [1] Economic Impact - The economic impact of overweight and obesity is projected to exceed $4 trillion by 2035 [1] - The collaboration aims to help countries assess deficiencies in care and strengthen primary health care systems, particularly in resource-limited settings [1]