Cracker Barrel to Report Q4 Earnings: Is a Beat in Store?

Core Viewpoint - Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL) is set to report its fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 results on September 19, with expectations of a significant earnings surprise based on previous performance [1]. Estimate Revisions - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal fourth-quarter earnings per share is $1.17, reflecting a decline of 34.6% from $1.79 in the same quarter last year [2]. - Revenue expectations are set at $898.8 million, indicating a year-over-year increase of 7.4% [2]. Factors Influencing Performance - Menu innovation, higher pricing, and expansion efforts are anticipated to positively impact CBRL's top line, particularly due to increased demand for breakfast items and the introduction of $5 take-home meals [3]. - Growth in off-premise sales through initiatives like curbside delivery and family meal baskets is also expected to contribute positively [4]. Revenue Predictions - Restaurant revenues are projected to reach $715.9 million, up 7.9% year-over-year, while retail revenues are expected to be $168.2 million, reflecting a 6.9% increase [5]. - However, challenges such as declining traffic and same-store sales are anticipated to negatively affect results, with retail same-store sales predicted to decrease by 0.5% year-over-year [5]. Cost and Margin Pressures - Strategic investments in advertising and labor are likely to increase costs, with labor expenses expected to rise by 9% to $332.6 million and store-operating expenses projected to increase by 8.4% to $821.6 million [6]. - Adjusted operating income is forecasted to decline by 30.7% year-over-year to $27.6 million [6]. Earnings Prediction - The model indicates a potential earnings beat for Cracker Barrel, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +2.74% and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [7][8].