Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) Earnings Expected to Grow: Should You Buy?

Company Overview - Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) is expected to report a year-over-year increase in earnings, with a projected EPS of $1, reflecting a +9.9% change, and revenues anticipated at $412.85 million, up 5.5% from the previous year [3][10] Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is scheduled for October 17, and the stock may rise if actual results exceed expectations, while a miss could lead to a decline [2][10] - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.41% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a slight positive adjustment from analysts [4] Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates a negative reading of -0.33% for Commerce, suggesting analysts have become bearish on the company's earnings prospects [10] - Despite the negative Earnings ESP, the stock holds a Zacks Rank of 3, making it challenging to predict an earnings beat conclusively [10] Historical Performance - Commerce has a history of beating consensus EPS estimates, having surpassed expectations in the last four quarters, including a +18.89% surprise in the most recent quarter [11][12] Industry Context - In the broader context of the Zacks Banks - Midwest industry, Old Second Bancorp (OSBC) is expected to report earnings of $0.48 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of -12.7%, with revenues projected at $70.95 million, down 2.7% [16] - Old Second Bancorp's consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 1.4% over the last 30 days, and it also has a negative Earnings ESP of -0.52%, indicating a challenging outlook for beating consensus estimates [17]