Is Celsius a Buy, Sell, or Hold in 2025?

Stock Performance - The stock of Celsius Holdings has declined by more than 35% in 2024 despite a strong start and a recent rally [1] - The stock is expected to rebound in 2025, with analysts debating whether it is a buy, sell, or hold [2] Revenue Growth and Market Share - Revenue surged by 95% in Q4 2023 due to distribution gains from the PepsiCo deal [3] - Revenue growth slowed to 37% in Q1 and 23% in Q2 as the company lapped previous gains [4] - The company's energy drink market share has stabilized just below 10% after years of growth [4] Convenience Store Channel Challenges - PepsiCo noted a general malaise in the convenience store channel, attributing it to economic concerns [5] - Convenience stores are a critical channel for energy drinks, where Celsius gained significant shelf space through PepsiCo [5] Positive Developments - Piper Sandler highlighted Celsius as the most popular energy drink among teens, with a 35% market share in this demographic [6] - Stifel analysts predict a rebound in convenience store sales in 2025, citing easier comparisons, price increases, and innovation [7] Alternative Sales Channels and International Expansion - Celsius performs well in alternative channels like Amazon, where sales rose by 41% last quarter [8] - The company has begun selling in the UK, Ireland, and is entering markets like Australia, France, and New Zealand [9] Valuation and Future Outlook - The stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of just over 33 times, with valuation dependent on future growth [10] - Revenue growth could slow to high single or low double digits in the near term, but international opportunities and brand resonance with younger consumers offer long-term potential [11] - The stock is currently a hold, with potential for a better buying opportunity in 2025 [12]