ASML just gave us a first glimpse into how U.S. chip export curbs will dent its China sales

Company Performance - ASML's third-quarter net sales reached 7.5 billion euros, beating expectations, but net bookings were only 2.6 billion euros, significantly below the 5.6 billion euro consensus estimate [2] - ASML shares plunged as much as 16% on Tuesday, causing the company to lose over $50 billion in market capitalization in a single day [2] 2025 Outlook - ASML expects net sales for 2025 to be between 30 billion euros and 35 billion euros, which is at the lower half of the previously guided range [1] - The company's CFO, Roger Dassen, expects the China business to show a "more normalized percentage" in the order book and business [2] - UBS analysts noted that the change in ASML's 2025 guidance is mainly related to delays in the development of new logic fabrication facilities from Intel and Samsung, implying a 25% to 30% decline in sales to China in 2025 [2] Geopolitical Impact - ASML provided the first glimpse into how U.S. restrictions on exports of its advanced chip manufacturing tools to China will impact its sales in the Asian country [1] - Geopolitical tensions are putting pressure on ASML's 2025 outlook, particularly affecting its China business [2] Industry Context - ASML is a critical part of the global chip supply chain, with its extreme ultraviolet lithography machines used by major chipmakers like Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing to produce advanced chips [1]