大家好，我是海豚君！ 上周策略周报中，海豚君说了，用一年后的视角来看今天，美国的宏观组合，大概率是"大财政+宽货币"下的通胀经济前景，效果就类似疫情时期+拜登 时期在堆积的国债的情况下，用通胀这种全民买单的方式来化解。但这么操作的基本前提是，需要一个温顺的美联储来配合实现低利率，越早降息越好。 与此同时，特朗普还能上什么大招？高位美股接下来还有两道坎儿，能抗住吗？ 一、沉重的债务负担 疫情开始，美国联邦债务急剧拉升：a. 接近30万亿的债务余额，相比 与 疫情前2019年的17万亿，净增了12万亿; b, 净利率（每年净利息支出占债务余额的 比重）从2019年的2.4%飙升到了3.6%。 海豚君粗略估算，a. 如果付息利率从当前的3.6%，回落100个基点到2.5%上下b. 同时关税上，通过提高税率从原本的2.5%上下，提升到12.5%，关税收入 每年能增加大约3000亿上下（vs 6月关税同比增加约210亿，年化后等效新增关税收入是2500亿美金）。 债务膨胀的结果是，当下利息支出已经是联邦财政支出的第二大开支项，严重挤压了其他开支的空间。尤其是从2024年自然年来看，狭义赤字开支1.1万 亿美金，与利息支 ...

点击 最 下方 关注《材料汇》 ， 点击"❤"和" "并分享 添加 小编微信 ，寻 志同道合 的你 正文 芯上微装 根据行业调研信息， 近期芯上微装前道500nm-i线光刻机已发货至核心头部fab厂客户端进行量产验证 ，供应链i线物镜系统配套价值量从300w提升至500-600w。 上海微电子 SSA600/20系列是目前国内最先进、也是唯一可量产的前道光刻机， 分辨率达到90nm 。主要用于成熟制程（如90nm及以上节点）的芯片制造。 SMEE正在全力攻关 28nm节点的沉浸式（ArF液浸）光刻机， 这是当前国产光刻机技术攻关的 核心目标 。 根据公开报道和行业消息，28nm光刻机的研发已进入后期阶段， 核心子系统取得突破，样机组装和测试正在进行中 。官方曾提出目标是在 2024-2025年完成首台交 付 （实际进度可能受测试验证、良率提升等因素影响）。 国内XX装备集团 IC前道光刻机： 聚焦365nm i-line光刻机（分辨率约0.35μm），用于功率半导体、MEMS等特殊工艺。同时， 正在推进KrF光刻机（248nm）研发，目标突破55nm 节点。 新凯来 来源：《新凯来： " 中国版阿斯麦 " 改 ...

Small deep value individual investor, with a modest private investment portfolio, split approx. 50%-50% between shares and call options. I have a B.Sc. in aeronautical engineering and over 6 years of experience as an engineering consultant in the aerospace sector. The latter statement is not relevant in any way whatsoever to my investment style, but I thought to add it for self-indulgent purposes. I have a contrarian investment style, highly risky, and often dealing with illiquid options. How illiquid? Well ...

Core Viewpoint - ASML Holding N.V. is expected to report strong second-quarter 2025 results, potentially exceeding market expectations with projected revenues between €7.2 billion and €7.7 billion, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate stands at $8.55 billion, reflecting a 27.2% year-over-year increase [1][8]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is $5.94 per share, which is a 37.5% increase from the previous year's earnings of $4.32. This estimate has been revised upward by 14 cents in the last 30 days [2][3]. - ASML has a history of earnings surprises, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters with an average beat of 6.8% [3]. Earnings Prediction - The Earnings ESP for ASML is +2.82%, indicating a likelihood of an earnings beat this season [5]. - The company holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), which suggests a stable outlook [5]. Industry Context - The semiconductor sector is experiencing a resurgence driven by high demand and advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), benefiting ASML particularly in the wafer fabrication equipment market [6][8]. - ASML is positioned at the forefront of technological innovation, capitalizing on the industry's shift towards smaller, advanced technology nodes essential for AI, 5G, and high-performance computing [7]. Market Demand - Demand for ASML's lithography tools is increasing in both logic and memory markets, with a notable transition to next-generation memory technologies like DDR5 and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) [8][9]. - The company's heavy investments in Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) technology are yielding positive results, with rising demand for EUV-related services [10]. Challenges - Despite strong demand, macroeconomic challenges, including U.S.-China trade tensions and export restrictions on advanced semiconductors to China, pose risks to ASML's performance [11][20]. - However, demand for Deep Ultraviolet (DUV) lithography systems from Chinese chipmakers may partially mitigate the impact of these restrictions [11]. Stock Performance - ASML shares have increased by 15.7% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's growth of 7.4% [12]. - The stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month P/E of 27.7X, slightly above the sector average of 27.39X [14]. Investment Thesis - ASML holds a unique position in the chip equipment market as the sole producer of EUV lithography machines at scale, crucial for manufacturing advanced chips [18]. - The company is advancing its next-generation High-NA EUV machines, which are essential for producing smaller chips, aligning with the growing demand for efficient chips driven by AI [19]. Conclusion - ASML's dominance in EUV technology and solid revenue visibility position it well for future growth, although export restrictions and high valuation multiples suggest a cautious investment approach [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "A" for the electronic industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the critical role of lithography machines in semiconductor manufacturing, highlighting their complexity and high costs. The global lithography machine market is projected to reach approximately $31.5 billion by 2024, with ASML dominating the market [4][33][38]. - The report discusses the urgent need for domestic lithography machine production in China due to increasing U.S. export controls on semiconductor technology, which has created a "bottleneck" for the domestic chip manufacturing industry [5][42][57]. Summary by Sections Lithography Machines - Lithography is identified as a key process in chip manufacturing, with lithography machines being the core equipment. The manufacturing process includes several steps, with lithography being the most complex and time-consuming [3][13]. - The report outlines the evolution of lithography technology, including the transition from mask-based lithography to projection lithography, which is becoming the mainstream technology in chip manufacturing [15][21]. - The report details the advancements in lithography machine resolution, driven by shorter wavelengths and increased numerical aperture, with EUV technology achieving resolutions as low as 8nm [24][27][32]. Market Dynamics - The global lithography machine market is estimated to exceed $31.5 billion, with ASML holding a dominant market share of approximately 82.1% as of 2022. The market is characterized by an oligopolistic structure, with ASML, Canon, and Nikon being the primary players [33][38][40]. - The report highlights the increasing demand for lithography machines driven by the expansion of domestic wafer fabrication plants in China, which are expected to increase their monthly production capacity significantly by 2026 [42][47]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in the lithography machine supply chain, including Maolai Optical, Fuguang Co., Huicheng Vacuum, Inno Laser, and others, as potential investment opportunities [5][42].

金十图示：2025年07月14日（周一）全球主要科技与互联网公司市值变化 | 台棋电 | 11949 | 1 0.28% | 230.4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 特斯拉 | 10098 | ↑ 1.17% | 313.51 | | 甲骨文 | 6476 | + -1.89% | 230.56 | | 腾讯 | 5725 | -0.14% | 63.04 | | 奈飞 | 5298 | + -0.44% | 1245.11 | | SAP SAP | 3531 | + -1.75% | 300.85 | | O Palantir | 3353 | + -0.28% | 142.1 | | ASML 阿斯麦 | 3182 | -0.02% | 801.93 | | 一星 | 2979 | -0.64% | 45.14 | | 思科 | 2690 | -1.18% | 67.95 | | IEM IBM | 2635 | -1.34% | 283.59 | | 阿里巴巴 | 2552 | 1 0.08% | 106.72 | | 赛富时 | 2467 | + -2.24% | 2 ...

Group 1: Stock Splits Overview - Stock splits are becoming less common due to the availability of fractional shares, but they still serve purposes such as employee compensation [1] - Stock splits can generate excitement among investors and may lead to stock price surges, making it a strategic time to acquire stocks that are potential candidates for splits [1] Group 2: Microsoft - Microsoft, currently trading around $500, may be compelled to split its stock to maintain its position in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, as it is the second most expensive stock in the index [3][4] Group 3: Goldman Sachs - Goldman Sachs, the most expensive stock in the Dow at over $700, may also consider a stock split next year to remain a manageable component of the index [5] Group 4: Meta Platforms - Meta Platforms, trading at approximately $725, could be a candidate for a stock split as the Dow transitions to include more AI-focused companies [6] Group 5: Berkshire Hathaway - Berkshire Hathaway's Class A shares are unlikely to split due to their high price of over $700,000, but the more affordable Class B shares at $477 could be considered for a split next year [7][8] Group 6: Costco - Costco, which has seen its stock price exceed $1,000, may announce a stock split in 2026 as it becomes a candidate for such action [9] Group 7: Netflix - Netflix, with shares trading around $1,250, may also consider a stock split in 2026 to manage employee compensation costs associated with stock options [10] Group 8: ASML - ASML, currently trading at approximately $800, may consider a stock split in anticipation of strong growth in the semiconductor sector [11] Group 9: ServiceNow - ServiceNow, trading around $1,000, is benefiting from AI integration and could be a potential candidate for a stock split as its stock continues to rise [12] Group 10: Fair Isaac Corporation - Fair Isaac Corporation, known for credit scoring, has seen its stock rise to over $1,600 and may announce a split next year despite a recent decline from its 52-week high of $2,400 [13] Group 11: MercadoLibre - MercadoLibre, a leading e-commerce and fintech company in Latin America, has a stock price of $2,400 and could be ripe for a stock split in 2026 [14] Group 12: Investment Considerations - Even if some companies do not proceed with stock splits, they may still represent strong investment opportunities, with compelling cases beyond the potential for a split [15]

Group 1 - ASML stock has increased by 6.33%, outperforming the S&P 500's 4.73% gain, indicating a low-alpha profile which influenced the decision to sell the stake [1] - Invictus Origin, founded by Oliver Rodzianko, aims to deliver high annual returns through innovative portfolio strategies, particularly the High-Alpha Black Swan Portfolio [1] - The Invictus Hydra Portfolio maintains approximately 20% in dynamic cash reserves, allowing for strategic value investing during market disruptions [1] Group 2 - Oliver Rodzianko has extensive experience as a macro-focused investment analyst, specializing in sectors such as technology, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and energy [1] - The investment process of Invictus Origin integrates U.S. market specialization with a comprehensive understanding of international markets [1] - The firm is characterized by resilience, performance, and disciplined capital stewardship, supported by a family office structure aimed at lower-volatility capital preservation [1]

With just one subscription to Beyond the Wall Investing , you can save thousands of dollars a year on equity research reports from banks. You'll keep your finger on the pulse and have access to the latest and highest-quality analysis of this type of information.My previous 2 articles on ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ: ASML ) were Buy-rated, as I was expecting the stock to reverse from its correction, thanks to a likely continuation of strong revenue growth and EPS, becauseHe leads the investing group Beyond the ...

法院在书面判决中指出，向俄罗斯提供建议与技术是极其严重的行为，所泄信息被认为具备军事用途， 可能强化俄国的军事与战略能力，对乌克兰造成实质威胁，并进一步危及国际安全与稳定。 尽管被告否认所有指控，声称保留相关文件仅为维持个人专业知识，且不具间谍身分，法院仍认定其行 为已构成非法技术泄露。 国芯网[原:中国半导体论坛] 振兴国产半导体产业！ 不拘中国、 放眼世界 ！ 关注 世界半导体论坛 ↓ ↓ ↓ 7月11日消息，根据外媒报道，一名曾任职于 ASML 与恩智浦的俄罗斯籍工程师阿克塞诺夫，因非法窃 取并分享敏感技术予俄罗斯，违反欧盟对俄制裁规定，于本周四遭荷兰法院判处三年有期徒刑！ 案情显示，阿克塞诺夫2015年随Mapper公司迁至荷兰，在该公司破产后被ASML聘用。2023年8月被捕 前，他涉嫌将包含芯片生产线细节的机密文件传递给俄方联系人。虽然嫌疑人否认从事间谍活动，声称 保存文件仅为"职业发展需要"，但法院认定其行为已构成刑事犯罪。 本案暴露出欧洲科技企业的安保漏洞，恩智浦公司证实配合了司法调查，而ASML则以案件尚 未终审为由不予置评。由于半导体制造设备被多国列为战略物资，这起案件引发了对技术保 护机 ...