UPS (UPS) Q3 Earnings Preview: What You Should Know Beyond the Headline Estimates

Core Viewpoint - United Parcel Service (UPS) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.65 per share, a 5.1% increase year-over-year, with revenues projected at $22.26 billion, reflecting a 5.7% year-over-year growth [1] Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.4% lower in the last 30 days, indicating a reevaluation by analysts [1] - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [1] Revenue Projections - Revenue from Supply Chain Solutions is expected to reach $3.35 billion, a 6.8% increase from the previous year [2] - Revenue from International Package is projected at $4.43 billion, indicating a 3.9% year-over-year change [2] - U.S. Domestic Package revenue is estimated at $14.40 billion, reflecting a 5.4% increase from the year-ago quarter [2] Key Metrics - Revenue from International Package - Cargo and other is forecasted at $165.95 million, a 5% increase year-over-year [3] - Average revenue per piece for International Package - Total is expected to be $21.00, up from $20.78 [3] - Average daily package volume for International Package - Export is projected at 1,631.66 thousand, compared to 1.62 million in the same quarter last year [3] - Average daily package volume for International Package - Domestic is expected to be 1,534.43 thousand, up from 1.52 million year-over-year [3] - Average revenue per piece for U.S. Domestic Package - Ground is estimated at $11.18, compared to $11.10 last year [3] Additional Metrics - Average revenue per piece for U.S. Domestic Package - Total is projected at $12.59, compared to $12.54 in the same quarter last year [4] - Average revenue per piece for International Package - Domestic is expected to be $8.00, up from $7.73 [4] - Average revenue per piece for International Package - Export is forecasted at $33.22, compared to $33.09 last year [4] - Average daily package volume for International Package - Total is estimated at 3,166.10 thousand, compared to 3.14 million year-over-year [4] Stock Performance - UPS shares have increased by 5.7% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which rose by 4.5% [6] - UPS holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the overall market [6]