Apple Earnings Preview: Numbers and Themes To Watch

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that Apple's Q4 2024 performance will heavily depend on iPhone 15 shipments, with analysts suggesting that these shipments will influence whether the company meets or exceeds expectations [1] - Analysts at Morgan Stanley have raised their estimate for iPhones shipped in Q4 2024 to 55 million units, an increase from 52.5 million units, which is also above the consensus estimate of 50 million units [2] - The iPhone 16 has shown strong performance in China, outselling its predecessor by 20% in the first three weeks post-release, supporting the notion of a rebound in iPhone sales in the Chinese market [3] Group 2 - Wedbush estimates that approximately 300 million iPhones globally have not been upgraded, suggesting potential for an "AI-driven super cycle" led by the iPhone 16 [3] - Apple shares have increased by about 18% in 2024, trading at $227.26, with over half of the analysts covering the stock holding a "buy" rating and a consensus price target of $240.87, which is about 6% above the current price [3]