Sunrun to Report Q3 Earnings: Here's What You Need to Know

Core Viewpoint - Sunrun Inc. is expected to report its third-quarter 2024 results on November 7, with a consensus estimate indicating a decline in sales and earnings compared to the previous year [1][6]. Group 1: Performance Expectations - The company reported second-quarter earnings of 55 cents per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 26 cents [1]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter sales is $560.6 million, reflecting a 0.5% decline from the same period last year [6]. - The earnings estimate for the third quarter is a loss of 16 cents per share, indicating a deterioration from earnings of 40 cents reported a year ago [6]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Performance - Solid solar energy and storage capacity installations, driven by increasing solar demand and improving storage attachment rates, are expected to positively impact the company's top-line performance [2]. - A growing customer base is likely to contribute favorably to revenues in the upcoming quarter [2]. - However, a higher mix of subscribers leads to less upfront revenue recognition, as revenues are recognized over the life of the Customer Agreement, which may adversely affect third-quarter revenues [3]. Group 3: Market and Policy Impact - Significant changes in California's residential solar policy and pricing framework, which affects over 45% of Sunrun's customer base, may limit the financial attractiveness of its offerings, particularly for solar-only systems [4]. - The new net metering policy adopted in December 2022 and implemented in April 2023 could have resulted in lower solar installations in California, negatively impacting quarterly revenues [4]. Group 4: Cost and Earnings Outlook - Declining solar and storage equipment costs, along with operating leverage from volume growth, are expected to benefit the company's bottom-line performance [5]. - High interest expenses and unimpressive revenue expectations may weigh on earnings [5]. - The company has an Earnings ESP of +12.57%, indicating a potential earnings beat [7].