Group 1 - Sunrun (RUN) closed at $6.88, with a 4.9% gain over the past four weeks, and a mean price target of $14.18 indicating a 106.1% upside potential [1] - The mean estimate consists of 24 short-term price targets with a standard deviation of $7.24, where the lowest estimate is $6 (12.8% decline) and the highest is $38 (452.3% increase) [2] - Analysts show strong agreement in revising earnings estimates higher, which correlates with potential stock price increases [11][12] Group 2 - RUN has a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimates [13] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has increased by 3.8% due to two upward revisions and one downward revision in estimates [12] - While the consensus price target may not be reliable for predicting the exact gain, it provides a directional guide for potential price movement [13]

In the latest market close, Sunrun (RUN) reached $6.71, with a -1.61% movement compared to the previous day. This change lagged the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.17%. At the same time, the Dow lost 0.39%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 0.05%.The solar energy products distributor's shares have seen a decrease of 2.15% over the last month, surpassing the Oils-Energy sector's loss of 10.33% and the S&P 500's loss of 3.94%.Investors will be eagerly watching for the performance of Sunrun in its upcoming earnings dis ...

SAN FRANCISCO, April 15, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Sunrun (Nasdaq: RUN) today announced that it will issue its first quarter 2025 earnings report after the market closes on Wednesday, May 7, 2025. A conference call has been scheduled to discuss these earnings results at 1:30 p.m. Pacific Time. The conference call can be accessed live via the Sunrun Investor Relations website at https://investors.sunrun.com or over the phone by dialing (877) 407-5989 (toll-free) or (201) 689-8434 (toll). An audio replay will ...

Core Insights - Sunrun has partnered with Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) to create a program that utilizes home battery power to enhance local grid reliability, aiming to reduce costs for ratepayers by avoiding or deferring distribution investments [1][3][6] Group 1: Program Details - The program will operate for up to 100 hours from June through October, involving approximately 600 Sunrun customers in areas with distribution circuit constraints [2] - Customers participating in the Local PeakShift Power program will receive a one-time payment of $150 per battery for sharing their stored solar energy, while Sunrun will be compensated for managing battery dispatches [7] Group 2: Technological Integration - The program will leverage Sunrun's partnerships with Tesla and Lunar Energy, utilizing Tesla's grid services platform to optimize Powerwall batteries and Lunar Energy's AI-enabled forecasting for dispatching various battery types [5] - Sunrun's grid services platform allows for flexibility in enrolling customers in different programs, enhancing value for the company, its customers, and the grid [8] Group 3: Strategic Importance - This initiative is part of PG&E's 2025 Seasonal Aggregation of Versatile Energy (SAVE) virtual power plant, supporting California's energy goals and enhancing local reliability [3][4] - The collaboration marks the second partnership between Sunrun and PG&E to create a virtual power plant, showcasing Sunrun's capability to rapidly deploy solutions tailored to grid operators' needs [6]

Company Performance - Sunrun's stock closed at $6.71, reflecting a +0.75% change from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's loss of 0.22% [1] - Over the past month, Sunrun's shares have decreased by 22.65%, significantly underperforming the Oils-Energy sector's loss of 1.22% and the S&P 500's loss of 7.48% [1] Earnings Projections - The upcoming earnings report for Sunrun is projected to show an EPS of -$0.29, which is a 27.5% increase compared to the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue for the upcoming quarter is estimated at $493.5 million, representing a 7.71% increase from the prior-year quarter [2] Annual Forecast - For the entire year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates predict an EPS of -$0.72 and revenue of $2.26 billion, indicating a -154.14% change in earnings and a +10.79% change in revenue compared to the previous year [3] - Changes in analyst estimates for Sunrun are crucial as they reflect the evolving business trends, with positive revisions indicating optimism about the company's outlook [3] Industry Context - The solar industry, part of the Oils-Energy sector, currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 75, placing it in the top 30% of over 250 industries [6] - The Zacks Industry Rank measures the strength of industry groups based on the average Zacks Rank of individual stocks, with top-rated industries outperforming lower-rated ones by a factor of 2 to 1 [6]

Core Insights - Sunrun reported revenue of $518.49 million for Q4 2024, a year-over-year increase of 0.4%, with an EPS of $1.41 compared to -$1.33 a year ago, indicating a significant turnaround in earnings performance [1] - The revenue fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $538.42 million, resulting in a surprise of -3.70%, while the EPS exceeded expectations by +622.22% against a consensus estimate of -$0.27 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Solar Energy Capacity Installed for Subscribers was 232 MW, below the average estimate of 248.89 MW [4] - Networked Solar Energy Capacity reached 7,531 MW, slightly below the average estimate of 7,562.94 MW [4] - Revenue from Customer Agreements and Incentives was $388.57 million, exceeding the estimated $375.17 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +20.8% [4] - Revenue from Solar Energy Systems and Product Sales was $129.92 million, significantly lower than the estimated $158.65 million, marking a year-over-year decrease of -33.4% [4] - Revenue from Solar Energy Systems was $37.24 million, compared to the average estimate of $72.53 million, representing a year-over-year decline of -58.4% [4] - Revenue from Incentives was $31.02 million, below the average estimate of $39.43 million, with a year-over-year change of -8% [4] - Revenue from Products was $92.68 million, slightly above the average estimate of $88.70 million, showing a year-over-year decrease of -12.1% [4] - Revenue from Customer Agreements was $357.55 million, surpassing the average estimate of $353.72 million, with a year-over-year increase of +24.2% [4] - Gross Profit from Solar Energy Systems and Product was $1.56 million, significantly lower than the average estimate of $7.28 million [4] - Gross Profit from Customer Agreements and Incentives was $95.94 million, exceeding the average estimate of $62.21 million [4] Stock Performance - Sunrun's shares have returned -24.6% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -4.1% change, indicating underperformance relative to the broader market [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it may perform in line with the market in the near term [3]

Core Insights - Sunrun has been awarded the 2025 Platinum Solar Award and the exclusive Preferred Partner Award by BestCompany.com, recognizing its commitment to customer satisfaction, innovation, and industry leadership [1][2] - The company's focus on customer experience is highlighted by its strong Net Promoter Scores and positive customer reviews, reflecting a customer-first approach [2][4] - Sunrun's financial stability and strong partnerships have been key factors in its recognition, especially in a changing industry landscape [3] Company Achievements - Sunrun has also been recognized as a Sustainability Innovator in Good Housekeeping's 2025 Home Renovation Awards and received the 2024 Excellence in Customer Service Award from the Business Intelligence Group [3] - The company earned a 2024 Silver Stevie® Award for Achievement in Customer Experience, further emphasizing its commitment to customer service [3] Customer Experience - Sunrun offers a comprehensive maintenance, monitoring, and repair program, including 24/7 system monitoring, free maintenance and repairs, and a solar performance guarantee [4] - The company's Net Promoter Score at the time of installation reached 76 points in 2024, a level achieved by only the most trusted consumer brands [4] Business Model - Sunrun revolutionized the solar industry by removing financial barriers and providing access to renewable energy through a subscription service model, offering residential solar and storage with no upfront costs [5] - The company connects homes to clean energy, providing energy security, predictability, and peace of mind while managing energy services that benefit communities and utilities [5]

Core Insights - Sunrun has been awarded the 2025 Platinum Solar Award and the Preferred Partner Award by BestCompany.com, recognizing its commitment to customer satisfaction, innovation, and industry leadership [1][2][3] Group 1: Awards and Recognition - Sunrun's customer-first approach has led to significant investments in service, resulting in high Net Promoter Scores and positive customer experiences [2][4] - The company has also been recognized as a Sustainability Innovator in Good Housekeeping's 2025 Home Renovation Awards and received the 2024 Excellence in Customer Service Award from the Business Intelligence Group [3] Group 2: Customer Experience and Services - Sunrun offers a comprehensive maintenance, monitoring, and repair program, including 24/7 system monitoring, free maintenance and repairs, and a solar performance guarantee [4] - The company's Net Promoter Score at the time of installation reached 76 points in 2024, indicating a high level of customer trust and satisfaction [4] Group 3: Company Overview - Founded in 2007, Sunrun revolutionized the solar industry by removing financial barriers and providing access to renewable energy through subscription services [5] - The company focuses on residential solar and storage solutions with no upfront costs, enhancing energy security and predictability for customers [5]

Company Performance - Sunrun reported quarterly earnings of $1.41 per share, significantly beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.27 per share, representing an earnings surprise of 622.22% [1] - The company posted revenues of $518.49 million for the quarter ended December 2024, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.70% and showed a slight increase from $516.59 million year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Sunrun has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times but has topped consensus revenue estimates only once [2] Stock Outlook - Sunrun shares have declined approximately 9.3% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 1.3% [3] - The company's future stock performance will largely depend on management's commentary during the earnings call and the trends in earnings estimate revisions [3][4] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is -$0.32 on revenues of $510.26 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is -$0.80 on revenues of $2.3 billion [7] Industry Context - The solar industry, to which Sunrun belongs, is currently ranked in the top 20% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook compared to the bottom 50% [8] - Empirical research suggests a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can impact Sunrun's stock performance [5][8] - Canadian Solar, another company in the solar industry, is expected to report a quarterly loss of $0.21 per share, reflecting a significant year-over-year decline [9]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2024, Sunrun reported a cash generation of $34 million, marking the third consecutive quarter of positive cash generation [9][40] - The total value generated in Q4 was $589 million, with a net subscriber value of $19,177, reflecting a strong performance driven by higher battery attachment rates and ITC realization [29][31] - Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) reached over $1.6 billion, up 23% year-over-year [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Storage attachment rates reached 62% of new customers, an increase of 17 percentage points year-over-year, with 392 megawatt hours of storage installed in Q4, up 78% from the previous year [13][25] - Solar energy capacity installed was approximately 242 megawatts, a 7% increase compared to the prior year [26] - The subscription mix remained at 96% of deployments, with approximately 32,900 customer additions in Q4, including about 30,700 subscriber additions [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sunrun's share of residential storage installations expanded to over 50% in the U.S., while residential solar installations increased from 13% in Q1 to 19% in Q4 [17] - The company has 16 grid service programs active across the country, with over 20,000 customers participating [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on high-quality growth, cash generation, and maintaining a strong balance sheet without the need for equity funding [7][8] - Sunrun aims to further differentiate itself by launching additional products and services to expand customer lifetime values while remaining disciplined in margin and customer focus [19] - The strategic shift to a storage-first approach is yielding strong results in cash generation and customer satisfaction [54] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term demand for solar and storage solutions, emphasizing the need for energy independence and reliability [10][18] - The company expects to generate cash consistently throughout 2025, with a target cash generation of $200 to $500 million for the full year [51] - Management acknowledged challenges in the market but remains optimistic about Sunrun's ability to adapt and thrive [20][46] Other Important Information - The company has paid down $186 million in recourse debt since March 2024 and plans to further reduce debt by $100 million or more in 2025 [44] - Sunrun's gross earning assets were reported at $17.8 billion at the end of Q4, with net earning assets at $6.8 billion, up $536 million from the prior quarter [33] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on safe harbor equipment purchases - Management clarified that the $350 million in safe harbor equipment would cover approximately 12 months for solar and about six months for storage deployments, emphasizing that the simple division of costs could overstate the value [57][58] Question: Guidance on cash generation and debt paydown priorities - Management indicated that the priority is to continue deleveraging while also focusing on maximizing shareholder value through strategic capital allocation [61][62] Question: Tax equity and funding dynamics - Management noted a busy start to the year in raising capital, with $1.3 billion in tax equity added to the runway, and emphasized the broadening of the investor universe [69][70] Question: Impact of domestic content challenges on Affiliate Partners - Management acknowledged challenges in obtaining and qualifying domestic content hardware, which has affected growth in the Affiliate Partner segment [85] Question: Labor pool and talent acquisition - Management reported no significant labor impact changes, with Sunrun being viewed as a desirable employer in the industry [89][90] Question: Competitive dynamics and sales commissions - Management highlighted the focus on standardization and speed in operations, which has allowed for commission leverage and a superior customer experience [96][97] Question: Exposure to tariffs and cost implications - Management discussed the impact of tariffs on overall hardware costs, estimating a 4% increase in capital creation costs, but noted that pricing related to safe harbor purchases has been locked in [100][101]