Antero Resources (AR) Up 25.5% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

Core Viewpoint - Antero Resources reported a wider-than-expected loss in Q3 2024, with total revenues declining year-over-year, raising questions about future performance and potential pullbacks in stock price [2][3]. Financial Performance - The adjusted loss for Q3 2024 was 12 cents per share, compared to a consensus estimate of a loss of 3 cents and a profit of 8 cents in the same quarter last year [2]. - Total revenues for the quarter were $1,056 million, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1,043 million but down from $1,126 million year-over-year [2]. Production Metrics - Total production in Q3 was 313 billion cubic feet equivalent (Bcfe), a decrease from 320 Bcfe a year ago, with natural gas production accounting for 64% of total production at 200 Bcf, down 4% from 208 Bcf [4]. - Oil production was 856 thousand barrels (MBbls), down 7% from 918 MBbls year-over-year, while C2 Ethane production increased by 9% to 7,302 MBbls [5]. Price Realizations - The weighted natural-gas-equivalent price realization was $3.14 per thousand cubic feet equivalent (Mcfe), lower than $3.32 a year ago but above the estimate of $2.98 [6]. - Realized prices for natural gas fell 14% to $2.13 per Mcf from $2.48 year-over-year, while oil price realization decreased to $61.59 per barrel from $68.22 [7]. Operating Expenses - Total operating expenses decreased to $1,062 million from $1,070 million year-over-year, with average lease operating costs down 10% to 9 cents per Mcfe [8]. - Transportation expenses declined 3.3% to 58 cents per Mcfe, while processing costs increased by 5.6% to 88 cents per Mcfe [9]. Capital Expenditures and Financials - Antero Resources spent $148 million on drilling and completion operations in Q3 2024 and reported no cash and cash equivalents as of September 30, 2024, with long-term debt at $1.62 billion [10]. Guidance - The company revised its drilling and completion capital budget for 2024 to a range of $640-$660 million from the previous $650-$700 million, while maintaining production guidance at 3.375-3.425 Bcfe per day [11]. Market Position and Outlook - Estimates for Antero Resources have trended upward recently, with a consensus estimate shift of 163.26% [12][13]. - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expectations for an in-line return in the coming months [15].