Key Takeaways EIA reported a 101 Bcf storage build, exceeding forecasts and marking a fifth straight triple-digit increase. Natural gas futures rose to $3.447 per Mcf, even as power demand and consumption showed signs of weakening. EXE, GPOR and AR are highlighted as well-positioned gas stocks amid oversupply and seasonal demand shifts.Natural gas prices ended last week on a modestly positive note, even as supply-side pressures continued to weigh on sentiment. The latest EIA report showed an above-average ...

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Antero Resources (AR) . Shares have added about 12.1% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Antero Resources due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?Est ...

The U.S. Energy Department's latest inventory report showed a higher-than-expected increase in natural gas supplies. Despite the larger injection, natural gas prices ended the week flat. Traders balanced rising supply with signs of strengthening demand, as spring weather and regional constraints kept sentiment mixed.At this time, we advise investors to focus on stocks such as Gulfport Energy (GPOR) , Coterra Energy (CTRA) and Antero Resources (AR) .EIA Reports a Build Slightly Larger Than Market Expectation ...

Group 1 - Antero Resources reported stronger quarterly cash flows compared to previous years, indicating a positive outlook for its business [1] - The company has engaged in stock repurchases and significantly reduced its debt [1]

Financial Performance - Antero Resources Corporation reported first-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of 78 cents per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 90 cents, but an increase from 7 cents in the same quarter last year [1] - Total quarterly revenues were $1,353 million, below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,399 million, but up from $1,122 million year-over-year [1] Production Overview - Total production in the first quarter was 306 billion cubic feet equivalent (Bcfe), down from 312 Bcfe a year ago and below the estimate of 302 Bcfe [2] - Natural gas production, which accounted for 64% of total production, was 195 Bcf, a 3% decrease from 202 Bcf year-over-year and below the estimate of 201 Bcf [2] - Oil production amounted to 852 thousand barrels (MBbls), an 18% decline from 1,035 MBbls in the previous year and below the estimate of 1,008 MBbls [3] - C2 Ethane production increased by 10% to 7,442 MBbls from 6,760 MBbls year-over-year, exceeding the estimate of 5,761 MBbls [3] - C3+ NGLs production was 10,229 MBbls, a 3% decrease from 10,564 MBbls reported a year ago, but higher than the estimate of 10,122 MBbls [4] Price Realization - Weighted natural-gas-equivalent price realization was $4.55 per thousand cubic feet equivalent (Mcfe), up from $3.39 year-over-year but below the estimate of $5.24 [5] - Realized prices for natural gas increased 71% to $4.01 per Mcf from $2.35 a year ago, below the estimate of $4.40 per Mcf [5] - Oil price realization was $59.08 per barrel (Bbl), lower than $62.53 year-over-year but above the estimate of $57.60 per Bbl [6] - Realized price for C3+ NGLs increased to $45.65 per Bbl from $43.05 year-over-year, exceeding the estimate of $39.04 per Bbl [6] - Realized price for C2 Ethane rose to $12.70 per Bbl from $9.32 year-over-year, above the estimate of $8.55 per Bbl [6] Operating Expenses - Total operating expenses increased to $1,081 million from $1,075 million year-over-year, below the estimate of $1,107 million [7] - Average lease operating costs were 11 cents per Mcfe, up 22% from 9 cents year-over-year [7] - Gathering and compression costs were 77 cents per Mcfe, a 7% increase from the prior year [8] - Transportation expenses rose 5% year-over-year to 65 cents per Mcfe, while processing costs increased 4% to 85 cents per Mcfe [8] Capital Expenditures and Financials - In the first quarter, Antero Resources spent $157 million on drilling and completion operations [10] - As of March 31, 2025, the company had no cash and cash equivalents and a long-term debt of $1.29 billion [10]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported production of 3.4 Bcfe per day, aligning with guidance, and generated $337 million in free cash flow, benefiting from strong natural gas and NGL premiums [22][23] - Drilling and completion capital was $157 million, representing 23% of the full-year guidance [22] - Total debt was reduced by over $200 million during the first quarter, with a total debt of $1.3 billion, the lowest among peers [23][26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average completed feet per day increased by 15% to 2,452 feet compared to 2023 [5] - The company averaged 12.3 completion stages per day, with a record of 18 stages achieved in March [6] - The NGL pricing outlook remains strong, with a projected premium of $1.5 to $2.5 per barrel to Mont Belvieu, an improvement from $1.41 in 2024 [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. propane exports are at record high levels, 7% above the previous year, indicating no impact on U.S. propane demand [16] - The faster-than-expected ramp-up at the Venture Global Plaquemines LNG facility has led to higher demand and pricing along the TGP 500 L transport [18] - The global LPG market is expected to adjust trade patterns, with increased U.S. LPG volumes heading to Europe and Asia [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maintaining a lean program with just two rigs and one completion crew to sustain production levels [7] - Antero is positioned to benefit from both LNG export growth and regional power demand through data center expansions [20] - The company has a strong organic leasing program, adding locations at low costs, and sees no immediate need for M&A [36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong fundamentals of the business, highlighting the ability to pivot between share buybacks and debt reduction based on market conditions [23][24] - The company remains bullish on natural gas demand growth, citing low rig counts and muted associated gas growth from other basins [89] - Management noted that local demand would need to increase significantly for the company to consider growing production beyond maintenance capital [60] Other Important Information - The company has hedged approximately 9% of expected natural gas volumes through 2026, locking in attractive rates [8] - Antero's capital efficiency is highlighted by the lowest maintenance capital per Mcfe among peers at $0.54 [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on LPG marketing agreements - The 90% figure refers to export volumes, with domestic sales also locked in at a high level [30] Question: Thoughts on M&A opportunities in U.S. shale - The company has a strong organic leasing program and sees no immediate need for M&A unless it is opportunistic and accretive [36] Question: Buyback strategy and future plans - The company is adopting a flexible approach, balancing between debt reduction and share buybacks based on market conditions [40][70] Question: Hedging strategy for 2026 - The company remains bullish and plans to continue hedging opportunistically while capturing premium pricing [46] Question: In-basin demand and local pricing dynamics - The company is focused on maintaining pricing based on NYMEX Henry Hub and is cautious about committing to local basis pricing without strong demand [84]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported production of 3.4 Bcfe per day, aligning with guidance [21] - Free cash flow generated was $337 million, benefiting from strong natural gas and NGL premiums [21] - Total debt was reduced by over $200 million during the first quarter, with total debt at $1.3 billion, the lowest among peers [22][25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Completed feet per day increased to an average of 2,452 feet, a 15% increase from 2023 [4] - Average completion stages per day reached 12.3, with a record of 18 stages achieved in March [5] - The company hedged approximately 9% of expected natural gas volumes through 2026 with new collars locking in a floor price of $3.7 and a ceiling of $5.96 [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Antero's NGL pricing outlook remains strong, with guidance for a $1.5 to $2.5 per barrel premium to Mont Belvieu, an improvement from $1.41 in 2024 [8] - U.S. propane exports are at record high levels, 7% above the previous year [15] - The faster-than-expected ramp-up at the Venture Global Plaquemines LNG facility has led to higher demand and pricing along the TGP 500 L transport [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on organic growth through a strong leasing program, with no immediate need for M&A due to substantial inventory and low-cost production [32] - Antero is uniquely positioned to benefit from both LNG export growth and regional power demand through data center expansions [20] - The company plans to maintain a flexible approach between share buybacks and debt reduction based on market conditions [22][25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the natural gas demand growth, citing low rig counts and muted associated gas growth from the Permian [90] - The company is pursuing a maintenance capital plan to maximize returns while monitoring local demand for potential growth opportunities [78] - Management highlighted the importance of local demand in driving future production growth, emphasizing the need for substantial demand before increasing volumes [58] Other Important Information - The company has entered into firm sales agreements on 90% of LPG volumes for 2025 at double-digit premiums to Mont Belvieu [9] - Antero's marketing strategy limits the impact of tariffs, with minimal exposure to the Chinese market [11][12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on LPG marketing agreements - The 90% figure refers to export volumes, with domestic sales also locked in at a high percentage [28] Question: Thoughts on M&A opportunities in U.S. shale - The company has a strong organic leasing program and sees no immediate need for M&A, although it remains open to opportunistic deals [32] Question: Buyback strategy and future plans - The company is adopting a flexible approach to capital allocation, balancing between debt reduction and share buybacks based on market conditions [68] Question: Hedging strategy for 2026 - The company remains bullish and plans to continue hedging, with no significant changes to the strategy anticipated [42] Question: In-basin demand and local pricing dynamics - The company is focused on maintaining pricing linked to NYMEX Henry Hub and is cautious about committing to local basis pricing without substantial demand [84]

2025 Guidance & Hedge Position 2 Guidance 2025 Guidance Ranges | Net Production (Bcfe/d) | 3.35 – 3.45 | | --- | --- | | Net Natural Gas Production (Bcf/d) | 2.16 – 2.20 | | Net Liquids Production (Bbl/d) | 198,000 – 208,000 | | Net Daily C3+ NGL Production (Bbl/d) | 113,000 – 117,000 | | Net Daily Ethane Production (Bbl/d) | 76,000 – 80,000 | | Net Daily Oil Production (Bbl/d) | 9,000 – 11,000 | | Natural Gas Realized Price Expected Premium to NYMEX ($/Mcf) | $0.10 to $0.20 | | C2 Ethane Realized Price - E ...

Group 1 - Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) reported a strong first quarter, benefiting from a cold winter that supported natural gas prices, which had previously been weak [2] - The oil and gas industry is characterized as a boom-bust, cyclical sector, requiring patience and experience for successful investment [2] Group 2 - The analysis of oil and gas companies focuses on identifying undervalued firms by examining their balance sheets, competitive positions, and development prospects [1]

Core Viewpoint - Antero Resources reported quarterly earnings of $0.78 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.90 per share, representing an earnings surprise of -13.33% [1][2] Financial Performance - The company posted revenues of $1.35 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.42%, compared to $1.12 billion in revenues a year ago [2] - Over the last four quarters, Antero Resources has surpassed consensus EPS estimates only once [2] Stock Performance - Antero Resources shares have increased by approximately 3.2% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has declined by -5.5% [3] Future Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.72 on revenues of $1.34 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $3.60 on revenues of $5.64 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Antero Resources is currently favorable, leading to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) for the stock, indicating expected outperformance in the near future [6] Industry Context - The Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry is currently in the bottom 25% of over 250 Zacks industries, which may impact stock performance [8]