CF Industries' Stock Up 14% in 3 Months: What's Driving the Rise?

Group 1: Stock Performance - CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) shares have increased by 13.5% over the past three months, outperforming the Zacks Fertilizers industry's 3.5% rise and the S&P 500's approximately 6.8% increase during the same period [1]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - The company is benefiting from rising global demand for nitrogen fertilizers, driven by significant agricultural demand and recovering industrial demand post-pandemic [4]. - High levels of corn planted acres and low nitrogen channel inventories are expected to boost nitrogen demand in North America, while Brazil and India are also projected to see strong demand due to favorable conditions [5]. Group 3: Pricing and Cost Factors - Strong global nitrogen demand and reduced supply availability have supported global nitrogen prices in Q3 2024, with expectations of a constructive supply-demand balance due to below-average inventories globally [6]. - CF Industries has experienced a decline in natural gas costs, with the average price falling to $2.10 per MMBtu in Q3 from $2.54 per MMBtu in the same quarter last year, which is expected to continue benefiting the company in Q4 [7]. Group 4: Earnings Estimates - Earnings estimates for CF have been increasing, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 rising by 5.9% and a 1.9% upward revision for Q4 2024, instilling investor confidence [8]. Group 5: Company Ranking - CF currently holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating strong market confidence in the stock [9].