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Financial Performance - Net sales for Q3 2025 reached $1,659 million, a 21.1% increase from $1,370 million in Q3 2024[10] - Gross margin improved to $632 million in Q3 2025, up 42.5% from $444 million in Q3 2024[10] - Net earnings attributable to common stockholders increased to $353 million in Q3 2025, compared to $276 million in Q3 2024, representing a 27.9% growth[10] - Basic earnings per share rose to $2.19 in Q3 2025, up from $1.55 in Q3 2024, reflecting a 41.3% increase[10] - Net earnings for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, were $1,303 million, compared to $1,085 million for the same period in 2024, representing a 20% increase[20] - Total revenue for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $1,659 million, a 21.1% increase from $1,370 million in the same period of 2024[29] - For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, total revenue reached $5,212 million, up 18.1% from $4,412 million in the prior year[29] - Diluted net earnings per share attributable to common stockholders increased by $0.64 per share, or 41%, to $2.19 per share in the third quarter of 2025 compared to $1.55 per share in the third quarter of 2024[130] - The company reported net earnings attributable to common stockholders of $1.05 billion for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $890 million for the same period in 2024[131] Assets and Equity - Total assets as of September 30, 2025, were $14,203 million, an increase from $13,466 million at the end of 2024[14] - Cash and cash equivalents increased to $1,838 million as of September 30, 2025, compared to $1,614 million at the end of 2024[14] - Total stockholders' equity decreased slightly to $4,849 million as of September 30, 2025, from $4,985 million at the end of 2024[14] Cash Flow and Dividends - Net cash provided by operating activities for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $2,213 million, up from $1,851 million in 2024, indicating a 20% growth[20] - The company paid dividends of $248 million on common stock during the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $278 million in 2024, a decrease of about 11%[20] - Dividends declared per common share remained stable at $0.50 for both Q3 2025 and Q3 2024[10] Costs and Expenses - The company reported a depreciation and amortization expense of $670 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $704 million in 2024, reflecting a decrease of approximately 5%[20] - Selling, general and administrative expenses rose by $10 million to $88 million in Q3 2025, attributed to higher incentive compensation[148] - Total other operating costs and expenses for the three months ended September 30, 2025, were $58 million, down from $82 million in 2024, a decrease of 29.3%[91] Segment Performance - The ammonia segment reported net sales of $457 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, a 29.5% increase from $353 million in 2024[87] - Net sales in the Granular Urea segment increased by $35 million, or 9%, to $423 million in Q3 2025 from $388 million in Q3 2024, driven by a 36% increase in average selling prices[194] - Net sales in the UAN segment increased by $111 million, or 27%, to $517 million in Q3 2025 from $406 million in Q3 2024, primarily due to a 46% increase in average selling prices[202] Natural Gas Costs - The cost of natural gas used for production increased by 41% to $2.96 per MMBtu in the third quarter of 2025 from $2.10 per MMBtu in the third quarter of 2024, resulting in a decrease in gross margin of $73 million[126] - The average daily market price of natural gas at Henry Hub was $3.03 per MMBtu in the third quarter of 2025, a 46% increase from $2.08 per MMBtu in the same quarter of 2024[126] Carbon Capture and Sustainability Initiatives - The company is focused on decarbonizing its ammonia production network to enable low-carbon hydrogen and nitrogen products, supporting its mission for sustainable energy[22] - The Donaldsonville complex's carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) project is expected to produce up to approximately 1.9 million tons of low-carbon ammonia annually, with a total project cost of approximately $200 million[98] - The Yazoo City CCS project is expected to commence in 2028, with an estimated cost of approximately $100 million, enabling the sequestration of up to 500,000 metric tons of CO2 annually[103] Debt and Financing - The company has a Revolving Credit Agreement with commitments of up to $750 million, maturing on September 4, 2030, with no outstanding borrowings as of September 30, 2025[59] - As of September 30, 2025, the company had unused borrowing capacity of $750 million under the Revolving Credit Agreement[61] - The fair value of long-term debt as of September 30, 2025, was $2.923 billion, slightly lower than the carrying amount of $2.974 billion[50] Share Repurchase Program - The company repurchased approximately 12.5 million shares for $1 billion in the nine months ended September 30, 2025[82] - The 2022 Share Repurchase Program authorized up to $3 billion, completed in October 2025, with a new program of $2 billion commencing thereafter[80]

Key Takeaways CF Industries' Q3 EPS rose to $2.19, topping estimates on higher selling prices.Ammonia, UAN and AN segments all saw double-digit sales growth.Robust nitrogen demand and tight supply are expected to support future pricing.CF Industries Holdings, Inc.(CF) reported third-quarter 2025 earnings of $2.19 per share, up from $1.55 in the year-ago quarter. The figure surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.06.Net sales rose around 21.2% year over year to $1,659 million in the quarter, missing the ...

CF Industries (NYSE:CF) Q3 2025 Earnings Call November 06, 2025 11:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsChristopher Parkinson - Managing DirectorKristen Owen - Managing DirectorW. Anthony Will - CEO and PresidentChris Bohn - EVP and COOBenjamin Theurer - Managing DirectorGreg Cameron - EVP and CFOBert Frost - EVP of Sales, Market Development, and Supply ChainVincent Andrews - Managing DirectorMartin Jarosick - VP of Investor RelationsW. Anthony Will - CEOConference Call ParticipantsAndrew Wong - Equity Research Ana ...

CF Industries (NYSE:CF) Q3 2025 Earnings Call November 06, 2025 11:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsW. Anthony Will - CEOMartin Jarosick - VP of Treasury and Investor RelationsChristopher Parkinson - Managing DirectorKristen Owen - Managing DirectorW. Anthony Will - CEO and PresidentBenjamin Theurer - Managing DirectorGreg Cameron - EVP and CFOVincent Andrews - Managing DirectorBert Frost - EVP of Sales, Market Development, and Supply ChainChristopher Bohn - EVP and COOConference Call ParticipantsAndrew Wong - ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the first nine months of 2025, the company reported net earnings attributable to common stockholders of approximately $1.1 billion, or $6.39 per diluted share, with EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA both around $2.1 billion [19][21] - For the third quarter of 2025, reported net earnings were $353 million, or $2.19 per diluted share, with EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA both approximately $670 million [19][21] - The trailing 12-month net cash from operations was $2.6 billion, and free cash flow was $1.7 billion, with a free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion rate of 65% [19][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The ammonia utilization rate for the first nine months of 2025 was 97%, with expectations to produce approximately 10 million tons of gross ammonia for the full year [12] - Significant progress was made in strategic initiatives, including the full utilization of expanded diesel exhaust fluid rail load-out capabilities, leading to record DEF shipments [12][13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The global nitrogen supply-demand balance remained tight in Q3 2025, with robust demand from North America, India, and Brazil, while product availability was constrained due to low global inventories and outages [15][16] - The company anticipates that the global nitrogen supply-demand balance will remain constructive, with continued strong demand and constrained supply availability [15][16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company has embarked on a strategic plan to decarbonize its production network and become a leader in clean ammonia, achieving a 25% reduction in GHG emissions intensity from its original baseline [5][6] - The development of the world's largest ultra-low emissions ammonia plant at the Bluepoint complex in Louisiana is underway, with equity partners JERA and Mitsui [7][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's robust growth trajectory through the end of the decade, emphasizing the inelastic demand for nitrogen even during periods of weak grower profitability [9][10] - The management team highlighted the misconception in the market regarding the company's valuation, noting that CF Industries trades at a low cash flow multiple compared to its peers [10][11] Other Important Information - The company returned $445 million to shareholders in Q3 2025 and approximately $1.3 billion for the first nine months, with a share repurchase program that has repurchased 37.6 million shares [21][22] - An incident at the Yazoo City complex was reported, but all employees and contractors were safe, and the ammonia plant was not directly affected [3][56] Q&A Session Summary Question: Market conditions and mid-cycle expectations - Management acknowledged that current market conditions are above mid-cycle and expect to deliver full-year results well above mid-cycle due to strong demand and pricing dynamics [34][36] Question: Pricing premiums for blue ammonia - The company is currently achieving a premium of $20-$25 per ton for blue ammonia sold in Europe, which was not initially anticipated in the project's economics [39][40] Question: Potential risks in the nitrogen outlook - Management noted that while supply is constrained, demand continues to grow, and they do not foresee significant negative factors impacting the market [45][46] Question: Addressing the valuation disconnect - Management indicated that continued operational performance and share repurchases are key strategies to address the valuation gap perceived by investors [48][50] Question: Supply disruptions and demand strength - Management attributed the price strength to both supply disruptions and healthy demand, with expectations for continued strong demand in 2026 [61][66] Question: Lessons learned from past capacity expansions - The company has applied lessons learned from previous expansions to the Bluepoint project, including detailed engineering studies and modular construction approaches [67][70]

2025 Third Quarter Financial Results November 5, 2025 NYSE: CF Safe harbor statement All statements in this presentation by CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, the "Company"), other than those relating to historical facts, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements can generally be identified by their use of terms such as "anticipate," "believe," "could," "estimate," "expect," "intend," "may," "plan," "predict," "project," "will" or "would" and similar terms and phr ...

Core Insights - CF Industries reported a revenue of $1.66 billion for the quarter ended September 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 21.1% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was $2.19, up from $1.55 in the same quarter last year, with an EPS surprise of +6.31% compared to the consensus estimate of $2.06 [1] Financial Performance - Revenue of $1.66 billion was slightly below the Zacks Consensus Estimate by -0.34% [1] - CF Industries' stock has returned -8.1% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite increased by +1% [3] - The company holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the broader market [3] Sales Volume and Pricing - Ammonia sales volume was 1,092 KTon, exceeding the average estimate of 994.59 KTon [4] - Total product sold was 4,504 KTon, below the average estimate of 4,648.64 KTon [4] - Granular Urea sales volume was 939 KTon, lower than the estimated 1,103.77 KTon [4] - UAN (urea ammonium nitrate) sales volume was 1,564 KTon, below the estimate of 1,665.21 KTon [4] Net Sales Performance - Net Sales for Ammonia reached $457 million, surpassing the average estimate of $387.62 million, representing a year-over-year increase of +29.5% [4] - Granular Urea net sales were $423 million, slightly below the estimate of $459.23 million, with a +9% year-over-year change [4] - UAN net sales were $517 million, exceeding the estimate of $498.46 million, reflecting a +27.3% year-over-year increase [4] - Ammonium Nitrate (AN) net sales were $122 million, above the estimate of $106.84 million, with a +15.1% year-over-year change [4] - Other net sales reached $140 million, compared to the average estimate of $128.84 million, representing a +19.7% year-over-year increase [4]

分组1 - CF Industries reported quarterly earnings of $2.19 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.06 per share, and up from $1.55 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of +6.31% [1] - The company posted revenues of $1.66 billion for the quarter ended September 2025, which was below the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.34%, but an increase from $1.37 billion year-over-year [2] - CF has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times over the last four quarters and topped consensus revenue estimates three times during the same period [2] 分组2 - The stock has underperformed the market, losing about 0.9% since the beginning of the year compared to the S&P 500's gain of 15.1% [3] - The company's earnings outlook is crucial for investors, with current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter at $2.12 on revenues of $1.71 billion, and $8.73 on revenues of $6.98 billion for the current fiscal year [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank indicates that the Fertilizers sector is currently in the bottom 24% of over 250 Zacks industries, which may impact stock performance [8]

Financial Performance - CF Industries reported net earnings of $1.05 billion for the first nine months of 2025, or $6.39 per diluted share, compared to $890 million, or $4.86 per diluted share in the same period of 2024[6]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the first nine months of 2025 was $2.07 billion, up from $1.72 billion in the first nine months of 2024[6]. - Net sales for the first nine months of 2025 were $5.21 billion, an increase from $4.41 billion in the same period of 2024, driven by higher average selling prices and increased sales volumes[7]. - Net sales for the three months ended September 30, 2025, increased to $1,659 million, up 21.1% from $1,370 million in 2024[30]. - Net earnings attributable to common stockholders for the three months ended September 30, 2025, rose to $353 million, a 27.8% increase compared to $276 million in 2024[30]. - Operating earnings for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, were $1,683 million, a 29% increase from $1,305 million in the same period of 2024[54]. - For the twelve months ended September 30, 2025, net cash provided by operating activities was $2,633 million, an increase from $2,331 million in 2024, resulting in a free cash flow of $1,699 million compared to $1,514 million in the previous year[62]. Production and Sales Volumes - Gross ammonia production for the first nine months of 2025 was approximately 7.6 million tons, compared to 7.2 million tons in the same period of 2024[4]. - Sales volume of ammonia for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, increased to 3,325,000 tons, up from 2,845,000 tons in 2024[33]. - Sales volume by product tons for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was 4,504,000 tons, a decrease from 4,797,000 tons in 2024, while for the nine months, it increased to 14,529,000 tons from 14,196,000 tons[67]. Pricing and Margins - Average selling price per product ton for granular urea increased to $450 in Q3 2025, up 36.4% from $330 in Q3 2024[35]. - Adjusted gross margin for granular urea segment was $271 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $233 million in 2024, reflecting a 16.3% increase[35]. - Gross margin for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $1,959 million, representing a 28.0% increase from $1,532 million in 2024[30]. - Gross margin for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $230 million, representing a gross margin percentage of 44.5%, compared to 33.0% in 2024[38]. - Adjusted gross margin for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $289 million, or 55.9% of net sales, compared to 50.2% in 2024[38]. Costs and Expenses - The average cost of natural gas in the first nine months of 2025 was $3.34 per MMBtu, up from $2.38 per MMBtu in the first nine months of 2024[8]. - Average daily market price of natural gas at the Henry Hub for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $3.48 per MMBtu, compared to $2.19 per MMBtu in 2024[30]. - Capital expenditures for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, totaled $724 million, significantly higher than $321 million in 2024[30]. - The company incurred capital expenditures of $347 million in Q3 2025, compared to $139 million in Q3 2024[59]. Shareholder Returns and Dividends - CF Industries completed a $3 billion share repurchase program and initiated a new $2 billion program in October 2025[1]. - CF Industries declared a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per common share, payable on November 28, 2025[44]. Future Outlook and Projects - The company expects full-year 2025 gross ammonia production to be approximately 10 million tons[4]. - CF Industries anticipates continued strong global nitrogen demand through 2025 and into 2026, particularly from India and Brazil[27]. - The Blue Point joint venture is set to construct a low-carbon ammonia production facility, with civil construction expected to start in 2026[24]. - The company is focused on completing projects at its Blue Point Complex, including a low-carbon ammonia production facility, which may exceed current capital expenditure estimates[49]. - CF Industries is focused on decarbonizing its ammonia production network to support the transition to clean energy[46]. Conference and Communication - The company plans to hold a conference call on November 6, 2025, to discuss its third quarter and nine-month results[45].