Applovin-Does Billionaire Israel Englander Know Something Wall Street Missed? He Sells Nvidia Stock and Buys an AI Stock Up 2,260% Since 2022

Millennium Management's Trades - Billionaire Israel Englander, CEO of Millennium Management, made notable trades in Q3, selling 1 6 million shares of Nvidia (13% reduction) and buying 213,096 shares of AppLovin (43% increase) [1][2] - Nvidia stock returned 705% over the last two years, while AppLovin stock returned 2,260% over the same period [2] - Wall Street analysts see 26% upside for Nvidia (median target price $175) but 10% downside for AppLovin (median target price$ 303) [2] Nvidia's Performance and Outlook - Nvidia's GPUs are the gold standard for AI workloads, supported by a robust ecosystem of software development tools [5] - In Q3 FY2025, Nvidia's revenue rose 94% to $35 billion, and non-GAAP earnings jumped 103% to$ 0 81 per diluted share, beating analyst expectations [6] - Nvidia estimates Q4 revenue growth of 70%, above Wall Street's 68% expectation [6] - CEO Jensen Huang sees a $1 trillion opportunity by 2030 as data centers transition to accelerated computing and enterprises evolve into AI factories [7] - AI spending across hardware, software, and services is projected to grow at 36% annually through 2030 [7] - Wall Street expects Nvidia's earnings to grow at 38% annually over the next three years, with a current valuation of 54 4 times earnings [8] AppLovin's Performance and Outlook - AppLovin provides ad tech software for mobile app developers and CTV publishers, with a recent focus on e-commerce marketing [10][11] - The company's Axon predictive machine learning algorithms, including Axon 2 0, have boosted ad spending on the platform [11] - In Q3, AppLovin's revenue rose 39% to$ 1 2 billion, and GAAP net income quadrupled to $1 25 per diluted share, beating estimates [12] - CEO Adam Foroughi highlighted the e-commerce advertising product as the company's fastest-growing product, with core mobile gaming business expected to grow at 20%-30% annually [13] - Wall Street expects AppLovin's earnings to grow at 25% annually over the next three years, with a current valuation of 102 times earnings [14] Market Context and Speculation - In Q3, Nvidia's valuation was 60 times earnings with a 35% annual earnings growth forecast, while AppLovin's valuation was 39 times earnings with a 28% annual earnings growth forecast [9][15] - Englander's trades may reflect a view that Nvidia was less attractive and AppLovin more attractive in Q3, though market conditions have since improved for Nvidia and worsened for AppLovin [9][15]