Should You Buy Nvidia Stock Hand Over Fist Before the End of 2024? Here's What History Suggests.

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has shown strong historical performance, particularly in the first quarter, suggesting that buying the stock before the end of the year could be a profitable strategy moving forward [1][7]. Historical Performance - Nvidia has delivered a positive return in the first quarter 20 out of 25 times since its IPO, with an average gain of 19% [3][4]. - In 14 of those quarters, the stock achieved double-digit percentage gains, with a remarkable 90% increase last year and an 82.5% gain projected for Q1 2024 [4][5]. - Over the last decade, Nvidia has only experienced one negative first quarter, which was a 7% decline in Q1 2022 [5]. - The stock has shown positive returns in 17 of the 23 three-year periods since its IPO, averaging around 195% [6]. - Holding Nvidia shares for five years has resulted in gains in 19 out of 21 periods, with an average return of 551% [7]. Future Considerations - Current market conditions differ significantly from the past, with increased competition and higher interest rates potentially impacting future returns [9]. - Despite these challenges, Nvidia's CEO believes the new Blackwell GPU architecture could be a groundbreaking product, and the company is on a yearly cycle for launching new chips [10]. - The ongoing advancements in AI, including the potential for artificial general intelligence (AGI), could further enhance Nvidia's growth prospects, with a $1 trillion opportunity in accelerated computing [11][12].