中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛：关注美联储降息对中国股债汇的影响

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate cut cycle, starting with a 50 basis point cut in September and followed by a 25 basis point cut in November, marking a significant shift in monetary policy [1] - The commencement of the rate cut cycle is viewed as a major event in the global economic and financial landscape for 2024, with potential long-term impacts on markets [1] - The upcoming U.S. presidential election and the potential influence of Trump on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy are highlighted as critical factors to watch [1][2] Group 2 - Trump's economic policies, including significant tax cuts and increased tariffs, may raise inflation in the U.S., potentially limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut rates further [2] - Three potential scenarios for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy are outlined: soft landing, no landing, and hard landing, with significant implications for the dollar and interest rates [2][3] - The impact of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts on the Chinese market is expected to improve market risk appetite, benefiting risk assets like A-shares, although domestic factors will play a larger role [2] Group 3 - The future trajectory of the RMB exchange rate is contingent on the U.S. economic outcome, with three scenarios: soft landing leading to a strong dollar, no landing causing pressure on the RMB, and hard landing resulting in a weaker dollar and potential turning point for the RMB [3]