金融工程| 证券研究报告 —周报 2026 年 3 月 22 日 中银量化大类资产跟踪 有色持续承压，能化股指与商品走势分化 股票市场概览 本周 A 股市场整体下跌，港股市场整体下跌，美股市场普遍下跌，其 他海外权益市场普遍下跌。 A 股风格与拥挤度 成长 vs 红利：相对拥挤度及超额净值近期处于历史较高位置，需注意 成长风格的配置风险。 小盘 vs 大盘：相对拥挤度及超额净值均未处于历史高位，小盘风格当 前具有较高的配置性价比。 微盘股 vs 中证 800：相对拥挤度及超额净值持续处于历史高位，需注 意微盘股风格的配置风险。 A 股行情跟踪 A 股估值与股债性价比 A 股资金面 利率市场 本周中国国债利率上涨，美国国债利率下跌，中美利差处于历史高位。 汇率市场 近一周在岸人民币较美元贬值，离岸人民币较美元贬值。 商品市场 本周中国商品市场整体下跌，美国商品市场整体下跌。 风险提示 量化模型因市场剧烈变动失效。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 金融工程 证券分析师: 郭策 (8610) 66229081 ce.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S13005220 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shift in global energy strategy from "fossil fuel dominance" to "new energy technology sovereignty" due to geopolitical conflicts, particularly the ongoing military tensions in the Middle East [2][11] - Short-term impacts on the A-share market are expected to be manageable, with a transition to a structural slow bull market in the medium term [15][37] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the expansion of mainline sectors and the performance clustering of core sub-sectors [16][41] Long-term Impact - The current geopolitical situation is likely to accelerate global energy structure adjustments, comparable to the previous two oil crises in 1973 and 1979, which catalyzed major shifts in energy policies towards state intervention and diversification [9][10] - The 2026 U.S.-Iran military conflict is seen as a potential historical turning point, pushing countries towards renewable energy and reducing reliance on fossil fuels [11][12] Short-term Impact - The report maintains that the overall impact of rising oil prices on the A-share index remains within a controllable range, with the market expected to enter a phase of fluctuation [15][28] - The report notes that the market is approaching a bottom, but the exact timing is uncertain due to military conflict disturbances [15][36] Industry Focus - The report suggests that due to liquidity constraints, the technology sector may face short-term valuation pressures, leading to a shift towards advanced manufacturing sectors such as electric vehicles and new energy [16][21] - It identifies a cyclical rotation in commodities, with industrial prices leading the way, and anticipates a rise in chemical prices supported by macroeconomic conditions [16][17] - The report highlights that the AI industry is expected to remain resilient despite geopolitical tensions, with strong growth potential in core sub-sectors [17][41] Market Trends - The report indicates that the mainline sectors, particularly those driven by policy and geopolitical catalysts, are currently experiencing high concentration, with a potential for increased volatility in the future [41][42] - It notes that the previously strong performance of resource sectors has begun to show signs of adjustment, while technology and consumer sectors are starting to recover [42][45]

金融工程| 证券研究报告 —周报 2026 年 3 月 15 日 中银量化大类资产跟踪 能化商品上涨，权益资产短期承压 股票市场概览 ◼ 本周 A 股市场整体下跌，港股市场整体下跌，美股市场普遍下跌，其 他海外权益市场普遍下跌。 A 股风格与拥挤度 成长 vs 红利：相对拥挤度及超额净值近期处于历史较高位置，需注 意成长风格的配置风险。 小盘vs大盘：相对拥挤度及超额净值均未处于历史高位，小盘风格当 前具有较高的配置性价比。 微盘股 vs 中证 800：相对拥挤度及超额净值持续处于历史高位，需注 意微盘股风格的配置风险。 A 股行情跟踪 A 股估值与股债性价比 A 股资金面 利率市场 商品市场 ◼ 本周中国商品市场整体上涨，美国商品市场整体上涨。 风险提示 ◼ 量化模型因市场剧烈变动失效。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 金融工程 证券分析师: 郭策 (8610) 66229081 ce.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522080002 证券分析师:宋坤笛 ◼ 估值：当前 A 股 PE_TTM 处于历史极高分位，近一周边际下行。 ◼ 股债性价比：从 ...

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========= - The report discusses the relative crowding and excess net value of different A-share market styles, highlighting that the growth style is at a historically high position, while the small-cap style has a high cost-performance ratio[2][5] - The report tracks the valuation and stock-bond cost-performance ratio of the A-share market, noting that the current A-share PE_TTM is at a historically high percentile, with marginal declines in the past week[41][42] - The report evaluates the market sentiment risk, indicating that the rolling quarterly Sharpe ratio of the Wind All A Index has rebounded to a historically moderate position, not yet reaching the warning line[6][37] - The report provides a detailed analysis of the performance of various core indices, sectors, and industries, including their weekly returns and trading heat[24][25][35] - The report tracks the main fund indices, showing that most of them have declined in the past week, with private equity heavy indices and fund heavy indices leading the decline[91][94] - The report discusses the impact of interest rates on different market styles, noting that the rise in US Treasury yields in the past week has led to the underperformance of growth and large-cap styles[85][87] - The report analyzes the relationship between fund flows and momentum/reversal styles, indicating that the current decline in active stock fund total volume favors the reversal style[88][90] - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the commodity market, noting that the Chinese commodity market has generally risen in the past week, with the Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index leading the gains[126][128] - The report includes detailed charts and data on various market indices, including their returns, trading heat, valuation, and risk premium[17][23][35][50] =========

中银国际证券股份有限公司 第二届董事会第四十四次会议决议公告 证券代码：601696 证券简称：中银证券 公告编号：2026-003 一、审议通过《关于修订<公司风险偏好陈述书（2026 年版）>的议案》 表决结果：同意【12】票；反对【0】票；弃权【0】票。 本议案已经公司董事会风险控制委员会事前审议通过。 特此公告。 中银国际证券股份有限公司董事会 2026 年 3 月 3 日 1 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大 遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 中银国际证券股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第二届董事会第四十四次会议于 2026 年 3 月 2 日以视频会议、通讯表决方式召开，会议通知于 2026 年 2 月 13 日以电子邮 件方式发出。本次会议应参与表决董事 12 名，实际参与表决董事 12 名。会议由董事长周 权先生主持，公司相关高级管理人员等列席会议。本次董事会会议的召集、召开符合有关 法律、行政法规、部门规章、规范性文件和《中银国际证券股份有限公司章程》的规定。 本次会议审议并通过以下议案： ...

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors, nor does it provide detailed construction processes, formulas, or evaluations related to quantitative models or factors[1][2][3] - The report primarily focuses on market performance, style indices, valuation metrics, and fund flows, without delving into the construction or testing of quantitative models or factors[7][8][61] - Key metrics such as PE_TTM, ERP, and turnover rates are discussed in the context of market analysis, but these are not tied to specific quantitative models or factors[41][50][60] - Style performance and crowding metrics are analyzed, such as "Growth vs Dividend," "Small-cap vs Large-cap," and "Micro-cap vs CSI 800," but these are presented as market observations rather than derived from specific quantitative factors or models[61][73][76] - The report includes detailed data on market indices, fund flows, and sector performance, but does not attribute these to any specific quantitative methodologies or factor-based strategies[19][36][96]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of the computing power leasing sector, with significant price increases announced by Hetzner, a major data center operator, affecting cloud services and dedicated servers across Europe, the US, and Singapore [1][2] - Hetzner's price adjustments, effective from April 1, will see cloud service prices in Germany and Finland rise by 30% to 38%, while dedicated vCPU cloud server prices in the US will increase by approximately 30% [1] - The report from Zhongyin Securities indicates that rising computing power prices signal supply bottlenecks, suggesting that the computing power industry chain is likely to continue benefiting from these trends [1] Group 2 - Citic Securities notes that the explosive growth of tokens reflects an exponential increase in AI inference demand, with domestic computing power expected to gradually dominate the infrastructure layer due to cost advantages and an improving ecosystem [2] - The Huaxia Cloud Computing ETF (516630) focuses on domestic AI hardware and software, with a combined weight of 84.3% in computer software, cloud services, and computer equipment [3] - The Huaxia AI ETF (159381) has a balanced layout between hardware and AI software applications, with the top ten holdings including major companies in the sector, and a total fund size nearing 2 billion [3]

Core Viewpoint - The overall metal sector showed a strong oscillating pattern during the Spring Festival holiday, driven by a dual focus on risk aversion and stagflation trading, with investors encouraged to seize opportunities in the metal sector [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Multiple uncertainties in the global macro environment during the holiday period supported the price increase of metal assets, including both non-ferrous and precious metals [1] - According to Zhongyin Securities, by 2026, the market is expected to enter a "profit-driven upward phase," with domestic re-inflation narratives strengthening under the influences of "anti-involution" and expanding domestic demand [1] - The strong cyclical attributes of metal assets are anticipated to manifest, with financial attributes and industrial trends leading to revaluation opportunities [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to consider industrial metals and minor metals as offensive strategies, while using precious metals as a defensive measure to effectively capture market opportunities [1] - The ongoing issuance of the Yinhua CSI Non-Ferrous Metal ETF linked fund provides a convenient investment tool for investors seeking exposure to resource assets [1] - This fund closely tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Index, allowing investors to easily access core assets in the non-ferrous industry [1] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Given the diverse subcategories and significant stock volatility within the non-ferrous industry, investors can leverage the Yinhua Non-Ferrous ETF and its linked fund to significantly reduce stock selection difficulty and trading costs [1] - This approach enables more efficient participation in the overall growth of the industry [1]

Core Insights - International oil prices have significantly increased, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $66.31 per barrel, a weekly increase of 6.39%, and Brent crude oil futures at $71.49 per barrel, a weekly increase of 6.04%. The rise is attributed to ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, along with geopolitical concerns regarding potential U.S. actions against Iran [1][4]. Industry Dynamics - Among 100 tracked chemical products, 33 saw price increases, 8 experienced declines, and 59 remained stable during the week of February 17-24. Approximately 60% of products had month-over-month price increases, while 29% saw declines, and 11% remained unchanged [3]. - The top products with the highest weekly price increases included WTI crude oil, pure benzene (FOB Korea), naphtha (Singapore), paraxylene (PX Southeast Asia), and ammonium nitrate (Shaanxi Xinghua) [3]. - Conversely, the products with the largest weekly price declines were toluene (East China), calcium carbide (East China), nitric acid (East China), dichloromethane (East China), and multi-fluoride (002407) cryolite [3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - As of February 13, U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.735 million barrels per day, an increase of 22,000 barrels from the previous week and 238,000 barrels from the same period last year. U.S. oil demand averaged 21.648 million barrels per day, up by 54,100 barrels from the previous week [4]. - U.S. crude oil inventories, including strategic reserves, totaled 835.3 million barrels, a decrease of 8.8 million barrels from the previous week [4]. - The natural gas market saw NYMEX futures closing at $2.99 per MMBtu, with a weekly decline of 1.32%. U.S. natural gas inventories totaled 20.7 trillion cubic feet, down 14.4 billion cubic feet from the previous week [4]. Price Trends in Dyes - The price of disperse dyes increased, with an average market price of 25,000 yuan per ton as of February 25, reflecting a weekly increase of 19.05%, a monthly increase of 38.89%, and a year-over-year increase of 47.06% [5]. - The key intermediate for disperse dyes, a reducing agent, has seen a significant price increase, with projections indicating a rise from 25,000 yuan per ton to 100,000 yuan per ton by February 2026 [5]. Investment Recommendations - The SW basic chemical sector's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is 29.88, at the 85.25% historical percentile, while the price-to-book ratio is 2.69, at the 78.35% historical percentile. The SW oil and petrochemical sector's P/E ratio is 15.90, at the 48.79% historical percentile, and the P/B ratio is 1.54, at the 53.69% historical percentile [6]. - Investment focus for February includes undervalued industry leaders, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries, and electronic materials companies amid strong downstream demand [2][7]. - Long-term investment themes include traditional chemical leaders showing resilience, benefiting from new materials and improved industry conditions, and sectors like refining, polyester, dyes, organic silicon, pesticides, refrigerants, and phosphorus chemicals [7].